Lufthansa 2012-2015: wohin geht die Reise...
.....Dies begründete er mit der anhaltenden Kapazitätsdisziplin in der Branche.... Hüstel! Also einer von euch beiden spricht Müll. Ich tendiere zu Nomuras Hollins.
Damit meine ich, ich tendiere das Hollins der Müllfabrikant ist!
SUBSCRIBELOG INBusiness Day
Lufthansa Chief Carsten Spohr Defends Airlines No-Frills Push
I think people have understood: There will either be fast change or slow decline, said Carsten Spohr, the chief executive of Lufthansa.
ARNE DEDERT / EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY
By NICOLA CLARK
DECEMBER 8, 2014
FRANKFURT Since taking the helm at Lufthansa more than six months ago, Carsten Spohr has had to steer the German airline through more than a bit of rough air.
Faced with high operating costs and intensifying competition at home and abroad, Lufthansa has twice lowered profit forecasts for this year and 2015. No fewer than 10 strikes by pilots including a three-day walkout last week have forced the cancellation of more than 6,000 flights in 2014, at a cost of more than 160 million euros, or about $197 million, in lost earnings. On Mr. Spohrs watch, Lufthansas share price has tumbled almost 30 percent.
It is no wonder, then, that he has been scrambling to set Lufthansa on a new and more stable course.
Of course I would have wished for an easier start, Mr. Spohr told journalists here Monday. But the speed of change required of Lufthansa reflects the speed of change of the industry, he said. I think people have understood: There will either be fast change or slow decline.
Over the last several months, Mr. Spohr has been pressing his case for a transformation. Last week, Lufthansas board approved a new strategic plan that relies principally on an international expansion of the groups low-fare operations a radical departure for an airline that has long cultivated its image as a premium brand.
The plan, originally presented in July, involves expanding the groups little-known budget subsidiary, Eurowings, in a bid to recapture European market share that full-service carriers like Lufthansa have been steadily losing to leaner, nimbler rivals like Ryanair and easyJet. In addition, Lufthansa aims to use the Eurowings brand to break into a market sector that few others in Europe have dared to enter: cheap long-distance flights.
It is a program that analysts say signals managements recognition that the nature of the European air travel market has fundamentally changed. Travelers, particularly those traveling for leisure, are increasingly prepared to sacrifice some comfort in exchange for a lower fare. But many also warn that Lufthansa has not gone far enough to pare operating costs at its flagship business, which generates three-quarters of its revenue, a factor that could undermine the success of its new venture.
Some say the move down-market risks alienating frequent business travelers, while the likes of Ryanair and easyJet are upgrading their services to appeal to a higher-spending clientele.
I worry that its mostly just moving around the deck chairs without addressing the fundamental problems besetting the core business, said Chris Tarry, an analyst at Ctaira, a British aviation consultancy. It looks a bit like the tail wagging the dog.
Analysts have long criticized Europes full-service airlines for grossly underestimating the threat, first posed decades ago, by low-cost airlines and for failing to adapt their business models. While Lufthansa, unlike many rivals, including Air France-KLM and Alitalia, has so far managed to remain profitable, those earnings have been shrinking steadily as budget carriers have snapped up close to 40 percent of the intra-European air travel market, dragging down average fares. Last year, Lufthansas net profit fell to 300 million from 1.2 billion in 2012.
Hence the pressure to cut even more costs. Since 2012, Lufthansa has trimmed expenses by more than 1 billion and it hopes to achieve close to 500 million more in savings by the end of next year. But as ticket prices continue to fall, analysts predict that Mr. Spohr will need to dig even deeper just to maintain earnings at current levels.
The savings so far have been achieved through a series of measures, including the shift of most domestic flights to cities outside its main Frankfurt and Munich hubs to another low-cost Lufthansa unit, Germanwings, and the elimination of about 3,500 jobs.
Mr. Spohr predicted that Düsseldorf-based Eurowings would be able to match the fares of low-cost rivals across its network, because of operating costs that are about 30 percent to 35 percent lower than at the groups flagship airline. Those lower costs have been achieved mainly through the negotiation of separate, and far less generous, labor agreements with the Eurowings unions, including pilots and cabin crews.
Lufthansas new strategy echoes one put forward in September by Air France-KLM, that aimed to build the groups modest French and Dutch Transavia units into a Pan-European budget airline with bases in lower-wage European countries. But that project foundered during a crippling two-week strike by Air France pilots, who saw it as an attempt to outsource skilled French jobs.
Air France-KLM management has since tempered its ambitions for Transavia, and many analysts question whether the groups planned investments, which are now limited to the French operations, will manage to generate sufficient revenue to offset Air Frances still sizable losses.
While the latest strikes by Lufthansas 5,400 pilots were ostensibly in protest of a plan to reduce early retirement benefits, they also reflected fears that the groups push into the no-frills sector was ultimately aimed at forcing cuts to generous pay and working conditions at the flagship carrier.
Those fears are reasonable, analysts say. With a staff of more than 118,000 worldwide, labor remains Lufthansas largest single cost after fuel, representing around one-fifth of its 30 billion in annual revenue last year. But they worry that Mr. Spohr has so far shown little appetite for confronting the airlines unions.
Carsten Spohr is well-liked and well-respected among the staff, said Shakeel Adam, a managing partner at Aviado Partners, a consulting firm in Frankfurt that specializes in airline restructurings. But they need someone to be the bad cop now.
Mr. Spohr, 47, is a 20-year veteran of the Lufthansa group who has held numerous management roles, including stints running its global airline partnerships and cargo businesses. A licensed Airbus A320 pilot, he was the head of the main Lufthansa passenger business before replacing his predecessor, Christoph Franz.
Mr. Franz left the group in May to become the chairman of the Swiss drugmaker Roche.
Mr. Spohr argued that his background as a company insider was an asset at a time of rapid change.
I have my roots probably in the perfect soil, Mr. Spohr said. I know our weaknesses; I didnt start from scratch. I would be lying if I said I have found very many surprises.
Some analysts said they remained puzzled by Lufthansas desire to press ahead with low-cost long-distance flights.
Under the new plan, Eurowings is expected to begin service next fall from Cologne to tourist destinations in Florida, Southern Africa and the Indian Ocean. The flights will be operated in collaboration with SunExpress, a charter carrier jointly owned by Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines, a fellow member of the Star Alliance.
Some say the move risks cannibalizing passengers from the costlier Lufthansa business at a time when group revenue growth has stalled. Others question whether demand for low-cost long-distance flights is significant enough to be profitable. To date, only one European carrier, Norwegian Air Shuttle, has tried to start budget intercontinental flights to North America and Southeast Asia. But those services have struggled to make money and have been largely subsidized by the Scandinavian carriers short-haul business in Europe.
Still others remain skeptical that Europe needs another budget airline and argue that Lufthansa will most likely face years of struggle with its unions to bring costs down to compete in that market. Instead, they say, the German carrier might be better off focusing on business and first-class passengers who are less sensitive to ticket prices.
There are too many airline executives fearing the threat of the low-cost carriers, Mr. Adam said. The fact is there are different market segments that want different kinds of products and services. When a Walmart opens up next to Saks Fifth Avenue, Saks doesnt go out of business.
Mr. Spohr dismissed such concerns, however, noting that the low-cost business will remain a relatively small part of the Lufthansa group. Of the groups entire passenger fleet of 600 planes, only 100 are expected to fly under the various Wings brands.
The clear focus of Lufthansa remains on the premium service, Mr. Spohr said. This may be the most visible change right now in the company, he said of the push into lower-cost fares. But it is just an example of many other changes.
-------------------------
ich denke die situation ist gut analysiert/beschrieben und das was mich positiv stimmt ist das management rund um carsten spohr! ich denke wenn er durch ist mit seinerumstrukturierung sind wir in ganz anderen kursregionen! es gibt eben noch viel einsparpotenzial! das lässt raum für höhere kurse, wo will man denn bei ryanair noch sparen wenn da mal gestreikt wird?? ich denke man wird sich früher oder später in der eu auch nochmal der unterschiedlichen besteuerungsmodelle und subventionspolitiken einiger staaten annehmen und hier für mehr fairen wettbewerb sorgen, was wiederum der LH in die karten spielen wird....
@bürschen: also ich hab nix davon gelesen, dass 19 euro innerhalb von 3 tagen erreicht werden sollen... (19 halte ich auch für sehr ambitioniert, aber wie gesagt kommt ja auf den anlagehorizont drauf an)
11500 / 9860 = 16,6%
Wie gesagt, LH ist nicht mehr mein Favorit. Noch nicht einmal Performer.
Darum bin ich raus.
Warum ich nicht zu 14,485 verkaufen sollte, wenn ich erwarte, die Aktie zu 14 oder tiefer zu bekommen ist darin begründet.
Die 14,10 ist der heutige Kurs, zudem ich laden könnte. Zu 14 geht halt nicht.
Aber nur meine Meinung.
und kauf sie bei 13 zurück und verkauf sie zu 14,50, da der Dax sich nicht so volatil bewegt wie die LH.
9791 Postings, 2912 Tage RPM1974 : Heuer 14 #4678 2
10.12.14 13:18
nächstes Jahr 16 (bei Dax 11500)
So sehe ich das.
Ich kann hier nix von Fair Value lesen! Ferne habe ich deine heuer als tippfehler für das wort "heute" interpretiert, deshalb bin ich vor meiner ca. 15 % Aussage auch von einem Kurs von 14 und nicht 14,10 ausgegangen...
2.: erschließt sich mir deshalb trotzdem nicht Dax 11500 aber wenn du das so sagst kann ich mir ja getrost einen Call auf den Dax kaufen, schließlich hast du ja ne Glaskugel, die dir genau Hochs und Tiefs vorraussagt.... Danke für die Hilfe
BÜRSCHEN : Mal Ehrlich 13:08 #4675 Wenn diese Pilotenrüpel jetzt endlich mal zu Potte kommen würden. Könnte es auch hier wieder ein paar Pünktchen nach oben gehen.Ich sehe den Wert bei 15.€fair bewertet.
Darauf ich als Antwort:
RPM1974 : Heuer 14 #4678 2
10.12.14 13:18
nächstes Jahr 16 (bei Dax 11500)
So sehe ich das.
Und wenn der Dax keinen Zuckerer macht, weil die Welt sich ein Jahr nicht weiterdreht, dann ist auch die LH nicht einen Cent gestiegen. Sondern underperform den Dax auch da mit -3%.
Dax hat 13er KGV und nächstes Jahr 11 bei 10000 Punkten
Eine LH hat dieses Jahr bei 14 EUR ein KGV von 18,5 und nächstes Jahr bei 14 EUR von 13.
Ist immer noch zu teuer 13 zu 11 wenn man DAX als Peer Group aufruft, aber das steht man ihr zu, aber auch nicht mehr.
Meine Meinung
Soviel zur Theorie, immer bestens.
und dann der arroganter Satz vom Cockpit-Sprecher Jörn Handwerg:
"Mit dieser Aufforderung zur Gesamtschlichtung zeigt die Vereinigung Cockpit einen konstruktiven Weg auf, wie der aktuelle Tarifkonflikt zum Wohle aller befriedet und die erfolgreiche Zukunft des Lufthansa-Konzerns wieder gemeinsam mit den Piloten gestaltet werden kann"
ZUM WOHLE ALLER
Lieber Herr Handwerg, fragen Sie einen 60 jährigen Flugzeugmechaniker, wenn er bei minus 5 Grad um sechs Uhr früh die Abfertigung macht, wie er die Sache sieht......
Wenn Sie nicht regelmäßig zum Medizincheck müssten, könnte man meinen die Piloten würden harte Drogen konsumieren. Anders ist dieser Realitätsverlust nicht zu erklären.
Was kommt als nächstes? Die Ticketpreise der LH passen VC nicht? Oder der Einkauf soll mehr Bioprodukte ins Catering-Portfolio nehmen? Auf gehts zum Generalstreik!!!
Die haben echt den letzten Schuss nicht gehört. Meiner Verachtung können sich diese Piloten gewiss sein.
---
Nur meine Meinung, keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung.
Optionen
| Boardmail an "Salzsee" |
Wertpapier: Lufthansa AG |
Was das für die Yields bedeutet ist auch klar... (m.M.n.)
Optionen
| Boardmail an "Qantas_Flug" |
Wertpapier: Lufthansa AG |
Denen ist der Kurs SOWAS von Schei... egal !
Die lachen sich allenfalls tot....., haben DIE doch letzlich IMMER die Taschen voll !
Optionen
| Boardmail an "Reldom" |
Wertpapier: Lufthansa AG |
Ich denke ich werde schneller bei 12,80 wider kaufen können als uns lieb ist.
Optionen
| Boardmail an "Mosias" |
Wertpapier: Lufthansa AG |