US Daten
WASHINGTON, D.C. (December 27, 2006) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 22. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 555.8, a decrease of 14.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 647.6 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was up 16.6 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.
The Refinance Index decreased by 18.5 percent to 1604.6 from 1968.8 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 10.6 percent to 390.2 from 436.5 one week earlier. Despite the decrease in both indexes from last week, the Refinance Index remained 41.6 percent higher than in the same week one year ago, when it was 1259.1, while the Purchase Index’s unadjusted value of 289.8 was virtually unchanged from the same week one year ago, when it was 290.2. The seasonally adjusted Conventional Index decreased by 14.3 percent to 826.1 from 963.9 the previous week, and the seasonally adjusted Government Index decreased 12.4 percent to 105.4 from 120.3 the previous week.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 1.7 percent to 643.1 from 653.9. The four week moving average is down 1 percent to 429.3 from 433.4 for the Purchase Index, while this average is down 1.8 percent to 1966.9 from 2003.1 for the Refinance Index.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 48.8 percent of total applications from 50.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 23.1 from 23.6 percent of total applications from the previous week. The ARM share is at its lowest level since October 2003.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.12 from 6.10 percent, with points increasing to 0.96 from 0.93 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.84 percent from 5.82 percent, with points increasing to 1.06 from 0.99 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs increased to 5.87 percent from 5.82, with points decreasing to 0.80 from 0.83 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
**SPECIAL NOTES**
The survey covers approximately 50 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
###
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 500,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation’s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 3,000 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field. For additional information, visit MBA’s Web site: www.mortgagebankers.org.
Das ICSC rechnet für Dezember gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres mit dem Erreichen des unteren Ende der Prognose über einen Filialerlöszuwachs von 2,5-3,5 Prozent. Zugleich habe es den Anschein, wonach sich die Erlöse auf das untere Prognosenende für November und Dezember über ein Plus von 2,5-3 Prozent bewegen.
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zu den US-amerikanischen Verkäufen neuer Häuser (New Home Sales) für November 2006
aktuell:
Die Zahl der Hausverkäufe ist in den USA im November um 3,4 % auf 1,047 Mio. gestiegen. Erwartet wurden 1,015 bis 1,020 Mio. Hausverkäufe. Im Monat zuvor waren noch 1,013 Mio. Hausverkäufe registriert worden. Damit wurde die zuvor veröffentlichte Zahl von 1,004 Mio. nach oben revidiert.
aktuell:
Die Zahl der Erstanträge ist auf 317.000 gestiegen. Erwartet wurden 315.000 bis 320.000 neue Anträge nach zuvor 316.000 (revidiert von 315.000).
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zum Verbrauchervertrauen (Consumer Confidence) des Conference Boards für Dezember 2006
aktuell:
Der US-amerikanische Vertrauensindex notiert im Dezember bei 109,0. Erwartet wurde er im Bereich 102,0 bis 102,5. Im Vormonat hatte er bei 105,3 notiert. Damit wurde die ursprüngliche Veröffentlichung von 102,9 nach oben revidiert.
aktuell:
Die Zahl der US-amerikanischen Hausverkäufe ist im November auf 6,28 Mio. gestiegen. Erwartet wurden 6,15 bis 6,20 Mio. Verkäufe. Im Monat zuvor waren noch 6,24 Mio. Häuser verkauft worden.
aktuell:
Der Einkaufsmanagerindex notiert bei 52,4. Erwartet wurde er im Bereich 50,2 bis 52,0 nach zuletzt 49,9.
aktuell:
Die US-amerikanischen Rohölvorräte (Crude Oil Inventories) sind in der vorangegangenen Woche um 8,1 Mio. Barrel gesunken, nach zuvor -6,3 Mio. Barrel.
Die Benzinvorräte (Gasoline Inventories) haben sich in den USA im Wochenvergleich um 3,0 Mio. Barrel ausgeweitet, nach zuletzt Plus 1,0 Mio. Barrel.
Die Vorräte an Destillaten (Distillate Inventories), die auch das Heizöl beinhalten, sind gegenüber der Vorwoche in den Vereinigten Staaten um 500.000 Barrel gewachsen, nach zuvor +1,2 Mio. Barrel.
Zeitpunkt: 28.12.06 18:15
Aktion: Löschung des Beitrages
Kommentar: Regelverstoß - Löschung auf Wunsch des Autors
Manufacturing Conditions Survey
December 26, 2006
Manufacturing activity pulled back in December; Shipments, new orders and employment decrease
Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region contracted modestly in December, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. Factory shipments, new orders and employment edged into negative territory following a pickup in November. Order backlogs continued to move lower and delivery times flattened. Consistent with slower activity, manufacturers reported capacity utilization reversed its positive trend seen in recent months. In addition, manufacturers reported somewhat quicker growth in raw materials inventories.District manufacturers’ expectations remained generally optimistic in December. Firms anticipated solid growth in their shipments, new orders and capacity utilization for the coming six months.
Both raw materials and finished goods prices grew at a quicker pace in December. Looking ahead, respondents expected raw materials prices to rise faster over the next six months.
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Current Activity
In December, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index—our broadest measure of manufacturing activity—decreased to -6 from November’s reading of 7. Among the index’s components, shipments lost ten points to -4, new orders fell fourteen points to -8 and the jobs index moved down fifteen points to -5.Other indicators also suggested weaker activity. The capacity utilization index turned negative, losing twelve points to finish at -11 and the orders backlogs indicator shed five points to -16. Vendor delivery times edged down three points to -1, while our gauge for raw materials inventories was somewhat higher, gaining six points to 20. The finished goods inventories index, however, trimmed three points to 12.
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Employment
Labor market activity weakened at District plants in December. The employment index registered a -5 versus November’s 10, and the average workweek dropped nine points to -8. In addition, wage growth declined two points to 8.
Expectations
In December, our contacts remained generally positive about their business prospects for the coming six months. The index of expected shipments eased five points to 30, and the new orders indicator lost seven points to end at 26. The orders backlog index fell eight points to 9; the vendor delivery times gave up four points to 3; and planned capital expenditures slipped two points to 24. In contrast, capacity utilization registered a six-point gain to end at 26.Manufacturers’ plans for hiring in coming months were little changed from our last survey. The expected manufacturing employment index was almost unchanged at 7 and the average workweek slipped three points to finish at 8. The expected wage index, however, posted a seven-point gain to 37.
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Prices
In December, District manufacturers reported that raw materials prices increased at an average annual rate of 3.44 percent—a sharp pickup from November’s reading of 2.68. Finished goods prices rose at a 2.59 percent pace compared to November’s reading of 2.29 percent. Looking ahead to the next six months, respondents expected the prices they pay to advance at a 3.68 percent pace compared to November’s reading of 3.55 percent. Lastly, contacts looked for finished goods prices to advance at a 2.02 percent annual rate compared to last month’s 2.19 percent pace.
Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing Tenth District manufacturing activity growth continued to edge down in December, while expectations for future factory activity rebounded strongly from the previous month. Most price indexes in the survey declined, with many indexes recording their lowest levels in over a year. The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in December was 4, down from 6 in November and 9 in October (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). Production decelerated at both durable- and nondurable-goods-producing plants. The year-over-year production index also decreased from 35 to 25, a two-year low. On the other hand, the future production index rebounded from 15 to 27 after four straight months of decline. Although sample sizes make it difficult to draw firm conclusions about individual states, the data available suggest that production remained well above year-ago levels in all district states. Results for other month-over-month indexes were mixed. The shipments index eased from 10 to 6, and the employment and supplier delivery time indexes also experienced similar declines. In contrast, the new orders index rebounded from -1 to 9 and the order backlog index increased after recording a four-year low. The new order export index also edged up after posting its lowest level in two years. The finished goods inventory index increased while the materials inventory index remained relatively stable. Most other year-over-year indexes increased or remained largely unchanged. The new orders index and order backlog index edged up after recording their lowest levels in over three years. The new order export index rose from 11 to 16 and the capital expenditures index increased for the second straight month. On the other hand, the shipments and employment indexes decreased, and the supplier delivery time index declined to a three-year low. The materials inventory index remained relatively stable, while the finished goods index increased after falling for three straight months. Most other indexes for future factory activity increased in December. The future shipments index edged up from 24 to 30, and future order backlog, employment, and new order export indexes all increased for the second straight month. In addition, the capital expenditures index rebounded from 16 to 29 and the supplier delivery time index also rose slightly. Both inventory indexes edged up after recording two-year lows, while the future new orders index declined slightly from 22 to 19. The price indexes in the survey all decreased or remained relatively unchanged. The month-over-month finished goods price index declined to its lowest level in over a year, while the raw materials price index increased only slightly from 27 to 31. The year-over-year price indexes both fell, with the raw materials index recording a three-year low. The future finished goods price index eased from 28 to 21 and the future raw materials price index declined from 43 to 34, with both indexes reaching their lowest levels in over two years. |
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Manufacturing Survey Home Page
Prices
National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Released December 28, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of
Agriculture. For information on "Agricultural Prices" see
page 41, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
December Farm Prices Received Index Increased 1 Point From Last
Month
The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by
Farmers in December, at 121 percent, based on 1990-92=100,
increased 1 point (0.8 percent) from November. The Crop Index is
up 6 points (4.9 percent) but the Livestock Index decreased
3 points (2.6 percent). Producers received higher commodity prices
for lettuce, corn, grapes, and broccoli. Lower prices were
received for turkeys, cattle, hogs, and tomatoes. The overall
index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year
average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased average
marketings of oranges, wheat, milk, and broilers offset decreased
marketings of cattle, soybeans, grapes, and corn.
The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 6 points (5.2
percent) from December 2005. The Food Commodities Index, at 123,
increased 2 points (1.7 percent) from last month and 1 point
(0.8 percent) from December 2005.
aktuell:
Der US-amerikanische Help Wanted Index notiert im November bei 30 nach schon einem Stand von 30 im Vormonat. Damit war bereits im Vorfeld gerechnet worden. Ein Jahr zuvor hatte der Index noch bei 38 notiert.
Veröffentlichung des wöchentlichen Erdgasberichts der Energy Information Administration (EIA) zur US Lagerhaltung
aktuell:
Die US-amerikanischen Erdgasvorräte (Nat Gas Inventories) sind in der vorangegangenen Woche um 46 Bcf auf 3.121 Bcf zurückgegangen. In der vorangegangenen Woche waren die Bestände in den USA um 71 Bcf geschrumft, im Vorjahr hatten sie bei 2.663 Bcf gelegen.
The Refinance Index increased by 2.2 percent to 1640.4 from 1604.6 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased by 4.3 percent to 406.9 from 390.2 one week earlier. The seasonally adjusted Conventional Index increased by 3.8 percent to 857.3 from 826.1 the previous week, and the seasonally adjusted Government Index increased 0.7 percent to 106.1 from 105.4 the previous week.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 2.8 percent to 625.1 from 643.1. The four week moving average is down 1.1 percent to 424.4 from 429.3 for the Purchase Index, while this average is down 4.4 percent to 1879.6 from 1966.9 for the Refinance Index.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 48.1 percent of total applications from 48.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 20.4 from 23.1 percent of total applications from the previous week. The ARM share is at its lowest level since July 2003.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.22 from 6.12 percent, with points decreasing to 0.92 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.93 percent from 5.84 percent, with points decreasing to 1 from 1.06 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 5.84 percent from 5.87, with points increasing to 0.83 from 0.80 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
**SPECIAL NOTES**
The survey covers approximately 50 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
###
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 500,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation’s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 3,000 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field. For additional information, visit MBA’s Web site: www.mortgagebankers.org.
Laut ICSC-Chefökonom Michael Niemira wurde in der abgelaufenen Woche der Einzelhandel durch umgesetzte Bargeldgeschenke zu Weihnachten gestützt. Das ICSC rechnet für Dezember gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres mit einem Filialerlöszuwachs von rund 2,5 Prozent.
aktuell:
Die US-amerikanischen Bauausgaben sind im November um 0,2 % zurückgegangen. Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang im Bereich 0,6 bis 0,7 %.
aktuell:
Der US-amerikanische ISM Index notiert im Dezember bei 51,4 %. Erwartet wurde er im Bereich 50,0 bis 51,0 %. Im Vormonat hatte der Index noch bei 49,5 % notiert.
Schauma mal was da noch passiert, die Großen wissen eh was sage ist, deshalb wird sich da noch was tun!!
mfg J.B.
Phili-Index schwer im Minus gekommen
Chicago bei 52!!
Alle anderen Berichte sind nur negativ, also woher?? bzw. kommen die Ami`s auf solche Zahlen??
Fundamental ist die Lage sehr schlecht, Heute gab schon wieder einige Gewinnwarnungen, Gestern auch, also da passt nix mehr zusammen!!
Aber gut ich kann warten, irgendwann wird eine jede Gier bestraft!!
mfg J.B.
Veröffentlichung des US-amerikanischen Monster Beschäftigungsindices ("Monster Employment Index") für Dezember 2006
aktuell:
Der Monster Beschäftigungsindex aus den USA notiert für Dezember bei 167. Im Vormonat lag der Index bei 175, ein Jahr zuvor hatte er bei 145 notiert.
mfg J.B.
Tja, so ist das Leben, manche wissen es und viele nicht!!