TEVA -- Zukunft mit Generika

Liest sich vielversprechend  

Liest sich sehr gut. Ich mag den Kare. Die Ziele klar vor Augen. :)  

...da ist die 19 nicht mehr weit
 

Ein Ausbruch über 19,00 € / Aktie würde mich mehr freuen, weil ich dann im Plus bin ;-)  

Bin gestern Abend mit einem kleinen Gewinn erstmal raus leider erwischt man nicht immer den besten Zeitpunkt danach ist der Kurs gestiegen
Glück Auf  

...gib der Aktie einfach ein paar Jahre Zeit ;-)

Ob derzeit 16€ oder bald 19€....das sind ganz bestimmt nicht die Regionen in denen Teva steht, wenn:

1.)Konsequent die Schulden weiter abgebaut werden.
(letztes Quartal wurden 27,6 Mrd $ gemeldet:  https://s22.q4cdn.com/366566841/files/.../Teva-Factsheet-Q3-2018.pdf)
=> Teva hat die Schulden bereits von über 35 Mrd $ auf den derzeitigen Wert abgebaut.
Schafft es Teva wieder zu wachsen wird der Schuldenabbau sicher nicht langsamer voran gehen ;-)
=> sobald die Schulden deutlich zurückgefahren wurden, werden von dieser Seite auch weniger Risiken eingepreist. Das lässt dann deutlich höhere Bewertungen zu (und das bedeutet ganz sicher nicht, dass Teva die Schulden auf Null senken muss. Weitere 10-15 Mrd $ würden sicherlich ausreichen, um deutlich weniger risikobehaftet bewertet zu werden!)

2.)Der Generika Markt sich weiter stabilisiert => Teva wird nicht von einer bereits spürbaren Stabilisierung sprechen, wenn sie nicht klare Anzeichen dafür hätten.

3.)Teva wieder Wachstum generiert.
Teva braucht Wachstum: die Zulassungen der letzten Monate werden meiner Meinung nach vom Markt derzeit überhaupt nicht berücksichtigt. Es ist nur ein paar Monate her, da wurde ein potenzieller neuer Blockbuster zugelassen. Es hat seitdem auch weitere positive News gegeben. Hat sich das im Kurs bereits bemerkbar gemacht? Teva hat von Quartal zu Quartal die Zahlen übertroffen und jeweils den Ausblick auf den Rest des Jahres erhöht. Hat sich das irgendwie nachhaltig im Kurs niedergeschlagen? Nein! Stattdessen haben wir zum Jahresende einen Abverkauf sondergleichen gesehen auf nicht für möglich gehaltene Kursniveaus.


Ich persönlich glaube, dass Teva die richtigen Maßnahmen ergriffen hat um langfristig wieder auf dem richtigen Weg zu sein und eine positive Zukunft vor sich hat. Ich glaube nach wie vor an alte Höchststände in den kommenden 3-5 Jahren ;-)

 

Presentation Transcript:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/366566841/files/...019-1230-PM-ET-07-Jan-19.pdf

Q&A Transcript:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/366566841/files/...2019-100-PM-ET-07-Jan-19.pdf

Presentation:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/366566841/files/...-Conference-Presentation.pdf  

 Restructuring program on-track: significant spend base reduction of $1.8 billion Q3 YTD 2018
 Approval and launch of AJOVY™ in the U.S.; demand continues to grow steadily over the
first three months of launch
 AUSTEDO® rapid growth continues
 COPAXONE® maintaining share in the U.S.
 North American generic revenues stabilizing
 Partner Celltrion and Teva announced FDA approval of TRUXIMA® (rituximab-abbs), a
biosimilar to RITUXAN® and HERZUMA® (trastuzumab-pkrb), a biosimilar to HERCEPTIN®
 Reduction of net debt continues: $27.6 billion (Q3’18)

Was kann ich den Highlights der Teva Präsentation entnehmen? Dort werden exakt die Dinge hervorgehoben, die ich in #1531 angesprochen habe.  Der Fokus liegt auf Wachstum, Schuldenabbau und Kosteneinsparungen. Der Markt für Generika stabilisiert sich in den USA.  Hier stimmt die Richtung ;-)

 

Siehe Presentation-Link:

"Now a little bit about the strategic principles, how are we going to take Teva forward. The first thing is the key element of how to make the company more efficient, more competitive."

"The next thing is organic growth. And again, here you could say organic growth, that's not really how Teva was built, and that's not maybe the best solution for everybody. But given the circumstances we have in Teva, that is for sure the only solution because, since we have a huge debt, there's no way we can do anything else but organic growth.  .... And then you can say, okay yeah, but where can you grow organically? Well, we can actually grow organically in many different areas, and I'll get back to it a little later in the presentation, but we have many franchises, many business areas where we in the pipeline have strong development projects for organic growth."

"Now, long term, I believe we have three very strong growth drivers. Every single pharma market worldwide is going more generic. Japan is going more generic. China is going more generic. U.S. is going more generic. So anybody who can compete effectively in generics has a good sustainable business for many years. Biosimilars are increasing as a natural consequence of biologics having increased over the last 25 years. Biosimilars will also be increasing."

"Now all of this is of no interest to the shareholders unless it turns into value. And how do we make sure it turns into value? We do it by these three very simple mechanisms. A clear target for operating margin; we're not there right now but we'll get there in the coming years. A clear target for cash flow and cash-to-earnings because we need to pay down the debt, and a clear target for reduction of the debt getting down below three times EBITDA for the net debt. And then of course, a commitment to creating value for the current shareholders by not doing any new equity, but simply working on a long-term plan to reduce debt and thereby increase value for the currentshareholders."

"So this year, we'll be focusing on AJOVY, AUSTEDO, continuing to do nice on those. We'll be focusing on the stabilization of the U.S. generics sales. We'll be having some challenges as we've shared with everybody on COPAXONE and we might see generic competition on ProAir, on bendamustine. We'll hit the target for the restructuring. We'll do the consolidation moving from 60 to now around 70 further below 70 manufacturing sites worldwide. And then of course, we'll be committed to pay down debt and continue to do that going forward."


Siehe Q&A Transcript:

"Then there's a positive, which is, of course, the constant growth of the newly launched products, such as AUSTEDO, which is doing very well, growing very steadily, as we've also been sharing with you. It's – potentially once we see real revenue coming in from AJOVY. AJOVY is off to a real good start."

" And I would say the new thing compared to like a quarter ago, after the third quarter, I'm more confident now that we're seeing this stabilization of U.S. generics and that we also continue to see a
stable European outlook for generics. That's pretty clear to me. "

"Chris Schott Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC
Maybe one more for me and I'll open up. Just on AJOVY, you shared some comments of launch going well, but just a little bit more color of just 30% share, is that what you would expect at this point and what are you seeing in terms of the shake out of the three players as the market's starting to evolve here?

Kåre Schultz President, Chief Executive Officer & Director, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd

Yeah. So, first of all, we should remind ourselves that it's a fantastic new therapy, where we have three
competitors which have all shown actually quite comparable, very good clinical results. So, you have three products that are basically good products in the marketplace. Now, how will this pan out when you have three professional companies competing with really good drugs for a segment with a huge unmet need? Most likely it's going to be huge in volume because you have three big players with a good drug promoting it in a professional way, then you should expect to see big volumes. And I think that's what we're seeing. We're seeing bigger volumes than what we were predicting.

Then in terms of the relative share, some would say, well, let's just use a generic order of entry model, or let's look at details on what margin parameters do one have versus another. I think we have a few parameters on ours. We have a simple way. We don't have two doses to get to the max. It's just once monthly dosing. We have the offer of quarterly dosing. And we have less constipation than one of the competitors. So, we have some hooks. I was estimating that we would get between 20% and 30% from overall assessment. Right now we're seeing we're having 30% of NBRx and the TRx is, of course, climbing slowly towards that. So, it's probably half of that right now, the TRx. And I don't see in the marketplace, and what I hear anecdotally, any enormous differentiation apart from these smaller things I just touched on. And I will be saying that I think 30% seems to me like a fair and good share, which we should be able to keep on a sustainable basis."

"Chris Schott Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC

So, the $3 billion cost reduction numbers for 2019, just as you gotten further along in the process, can you talk about is there opportunities to beat a number like that, whether it's 2019 or over time, or just how do we think about where we are in that process, and what you've learned as you've gone through kind of the consolidated facilities, et cetera?

Kåre Schultz President, Chief Executive Officer & Director, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.

Yeah, I can give the first overall ends and then I'm sure Mike can give some more color, too. So, the overall plan is for two-year restructuring where we want to hit $3 billion. And I've made the plan out of the total cost pool because I think it's always frustrating when people say, we want to do this cost saving and then they have 10 explanations afterwards why they didn't do it because of currencies and this change and this change. So, I thought, okay, why don't we take the absolute number? And we say, we're just going to reduce by $3 billion then there's not so much discussion about whether we did it or not. So that's what we are driving for. And we are completely on plan or slightly ahead of plan, so I have no doubt that we'll hit that.

Then as you move into the coming years, you could say, it's maybe not so much about the absolute number, it's more about the margin because, of course, if we do well and we grow revenue then, of course, some part of the cost picture will also grow. So, the absolute number might be growing. So really what you should look at there is the 27% operating margin target we have, which is better than where we are right now and which we are fully committed to reaching that target."

"The guidance for 2019, of course, will come in February.But very clear that we want to use all of our capital allocation to pay down debt until we reach that less than 3 times longer-term target that Kåre presented in the presentation. After that, then we'll start looking at things. I think he also mentioned in his presentation that if we do have small targeted investments we can do to license projects and look at minor product things, we'll do that but nothing on a large scale until we get the leverage under control.

So, in generics, you could say our strategy is really to be the market leader. So, we go for all big products no matter whether they are simple chemicals or complex proteins or devices whatever. So, there, we basically go for everything of significant value. Where there's a link to the CNS and respiratory and neurology is more in the biopharmaceutical and biosimilar field where you need some credibility in order to penetrate in the market. So, that's where you should see the therapeutic focus, so to speak. And in our R&D pipeline, we have more than 20 biologics projects which we don't talk about because we really don't want to talk about them before they're quite late stage. But, of course, they are focused on the therapeutic categories where we know what we're talking about. So, we've done a big trimming of the pipeline and got rid of everything which we don't see as being core to what we know about it."

;-) 

 

Die nächsten Zahlen kommen am 13.02.2019 :)

https://ir.tevapharm.com/investors/press-releases/...019/default.aspx  

aber noch im Minus (ca. -16%)  

im Februar werden wieder besser sein. Step by Step zu alten Kursen.

https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/...epsy-drug-sabril-from-teva  

https://www.fairfieldcurrent.com/news/2019/01/23/...rops-by-17-4.html  

... Helsinn over anti-nausea drug patent in win for Teva

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...ourt-rejects-helsinn-152713632.html

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...tential-6-cagr-ahead-160026485.html  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...migrane-drug-gets-eu-121505934.html  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...aunch-alyq-tadalafil-235700605.html  

U.S. Launch of a Generic Version of Sabril® (Vigabatrin)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...ces-u-launch-generic-161300561.html

 

=> werden am 13.02. vorbörslich veröffentlicht. Könnte Richtungsweisend werden ;-)
Habe vorsorglich mal mein Pulver trocken gehalten.  

Richtungsweisend => leider die falsche Richtung ;-)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...-fourth-quarter-full-120000531.html  

Teva Pharma (TEVA) Misses Q4 EPS by 1c, FY Guidance Misses
February 13, 2019 7:01 AM

Teva Pharma (NYSE: TEVA) reported Q4 EPS of $0.53, $0.01 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.54. Revenue for the quarter came in at $4.6 billion versus the consensus estimate of $4.52 billion.

GUIDANCE:

Teva Pharma sees FY2019 EPS of $2.20-$2.50, versus the consensus of $2.81. Teva Pharma sees FY2019 revenue of $17-17.4 billion, versus the consensus of $17.93 billion.

https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=15119945
 

Ich verstehe den Abverkauf gerade gar nicht. ;) Im Bericht ist eigentlich nichts neu. Prognose am mittleren bis oberen Ende erreicht. Die Impairments sind auch Banane. Nur der Ausblick für 2019 ist wirklich "neu". Das es aber noch mal schlechter wird als 2018, war auch bekannt.

"... Looking ahead, we continue to expect that 2019 will be the trough for our business, ,,, we focus our efforts on generating cash to reduce the company's debt. ..."

Also für mich stimmt die Richtung weiterhin. ;)  

Jepp...ich verstehe das Ausmaß des Abverkaufs ebenfalls nicht. Aber exakt für diese Situation habe ich mein Pulver ja trocken gehalten ;-)  

Die oftmals interessante Reaktion des Sentiments nutze ich gerne zum nachkaufen für 14,84. Sieht alles wunderbar aus, dafür dass wir es hier mit einem Turn Around Kandidaten zu tun haben. Ich denke dass die Guidance für 2019 eher positiv überraschen wird. Auf Sicht von 5 Jahren ist der Kurs ein Schnäppchen  

@amorphis: Rückblickend natürlich alles richtig gemacht. Und wann geht's wieder rein? ;)