Kursverdoppelung bei Actua Corporation (vorm. Internet Capital)

sollte Ihn hier einmal reinstellen:

03.04.2006 | 15:09 Uhr MEZ
Absolut Report Nr. 30: Hedgefonds im Kreditmarkt

Der Markt für Kreditderivate ist seit mehreren Jahren das am stärksten wachsende Kapitalmarktsegment. In einem Umfeld historisch niedriger Zinsen und extrem enger Credit Spreads entdecken auch Hedgefonds zunehmend den Kreditmarkt für ihre Investitionen.

In ihrem Artikel im aktuellen Absolut Report zeigen die Autoren Dr. Jochen Felsenheimer, Head of Credit & Credit Derivatives Strategy der Hypovereinbank, und Christian Moersch, Institutional Sales der Hypovereinsbank, welche Auswirkung die Implementierung von innovativen Hedgefonds-Strategien auf die Kreditmärkte hat.

Die Autoren gehen hierbei insbesondere der Frage nach, ob sich aus den Entwicklungen am Kreditmarkt die Gefahr eines systemischen Risikos ableiten lässt oder ob ein verbessertes internes Risikomanagement, die Etablierung von Prime Brokern sowie die gestiegene Anzahl von Hedgefonds diese Gefahren egalisieren.

Abonnenten des Absolut Reports finden den Artikel in der aktuellen Ausgabe Nr. 30 auf

 

was angesichts der knapp zwei Millionen leer verkauften Stücke bei einem potenten Shortseller etwas unverständlich ist. Meines Erachtens deutet einiges darauf hin, dass in Internet Capital in dramatischem Ausmaß nackt geshortet wird - also ohne dass man sich die Stücke vorher geliehen. Meines Erachtens tauchen nackt geshortete Aktien nicht in den Shortseller-Statistiken auf, da man das Shortselling ja nur an der Zahl geliehenen Wertpapiere statistisch fest machen kann.

Wenn Ihr Euch einmal die Headlines bei Yahoo anseht, könnt Ihr erkennen, dass zu jeder positiven Headline an den Haaren etwas Negatives herbeizogen wird. Der Ankündigung der Quartalsergebnisse wird ein gekaufter Artikel in Motley Fool (schon öfter vorgekommen) gegenübergestellt, wo jemand einen Absatz zu Internet Capital ablässt, der an Blödheit und vor allem Uninformiertheit nicht mehr zu übertreffen. Zu einem positiven Artikel in Fortune wird als Gegenstück eine Nachricht über eine Klage fabriziert, in der zwar der Name "Internet Capital" in der Überschrift vorkommt, die aber auch nicht das geringste mit Internet Capital zu tun - es geht um die x-ste Klage gegen Merrill Lynch, die das y-ste Rechtswaltsbüro aus dem Wilden Westen auf den Weg gebracht hat, vermutlich ein dem Shortseller in irgendeiner Form verbundenes Büro.

HEADLINES Change Display [ hide $$  edit ]  
• Prepare for the Crash
at Motley Fool (Fri, Apr 21)  
• Internet Capital Group To Announce First Quarter Results May 4th Before Market Opens
Business Wire (Fri, Apr 21)  
• Invest in the Net boom without getting burned.
Fortune (Wed, Apr 19)  
• Notice to All Merrill Lynch Customers From the Securities Arbitration Law Firm of Klayman & Toskes, P.A. -- IAH, ICGE, HHH, IIH
PrimeZone Media Network (Wed, Apr 19)  
 

Schau dir mal die verschiedenen Börsenplätze an,einheitlich mit Miniorder 15 Cent unter Amikurs.  

ist es in diesem Fall ja auch unheimlich schwer, eine Kursmanipulation zu beweisen - denn vom Prinzip her ist ja das Kaufen von Minimengen nicht verboten. Wenn das allerdings über einen so langen Zeitraumen geht und die Spesen gar höher sind als der Einkaufspreis müsste man meines Erachtens von seitens das Bafins nachrecherchieren, denn da eigentlich kein rationales Verhalten vorliegen, sondern Kursmanipulation.

Aber sei's drum - ist ja auch völlig egal. Bedauerlicherweise werden allerdings deutsche Anleger dazu verleitet, falsche Limits (zu niedrige zu setzen) und bekommen nichts. Nichts anderes ist ja auch ein Aspekt dieser Strategie, wenn es denn überhaupt eine ist. Der andere Aspekt ist, dass man im Vorfeld der US-Eröffung niedrige Kurse zu produzieren versucht.

Langfristig entscheiden eh nur die Fundamentals - und die würden heute schon mindestens doppelt so hohe Kurs rechtfertigen, als wir sie momentan haben.

In der letzten Zeit häufen sich die positiven Überraschung. Emptoris ist so eine, denn ich hatte bei denen den Jahresumsatz 25 Millionen geschätzt, jetzt stellt sich im Rahmen eines Mergers heraus, dass die in 2005 schon 71 Millionen umgesetzt haben, mit dem unten angeführten Merger wären es gar über 100 Millionen gewesen. Internet Capital hält an Internet Capital nur noch 7% - aber das ist unter diesen Umständen schon etwas mehr als nicht und ich hoffe, dass durch den Merger der Anteil von Internet Capital nicht gesunken ist. Denn andererseits ist es zum Heulen, wenn man bedenkt, dass Internet Capital in der Anfangszeit von Emptoris einmal knapp über 60% hielt. Aber dann haben sie die folgenden Finanzierungsrunden nicht mitgemacht, weil sie sich auf die fast komplette Rückzahlung ihrer Schulden konzentriert haben - meines Erachtens ein Fehler, denn ein Unternehmen muss nicht mit 100% Eigenkapital finanziert sein.

Einen Wert von 300 bis 500 Millionen traue ich aber Emptoris schon zu, sodass die 7% von Internet Capital doch 20 bis 35 Millionen wert sein könnten.

Emptoris buys diCarta
11th April 2006
By Staff Writer
A recent collaboration between spend-analysis and supply chain management firm Emptoris Inc and contract management software specialist diCarta Inc has culminated in a formal merger.

AdvertisementThe merged company will operate under the Emptoris name, employ over 360 staff and share more than 150 customers including blue chips like GlaxoSmithKline, Kraft, Motorola, and United Healthcare.

Both companies are privately held and venture-backed and did not reveal terms of the transaction

According to analyst estimates Emptoris had an $70m in revenue last year and diCarta $31m.

No layoffs have been reported - diCarta had 135 staff - and the company will be headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts (where Emptoris is based). DiCarta's San Mateo, California offices will be retained.

Both companies, which have partnered for the last two and half years, have been working closely over the past nine months to build an integrated platform for spend analysis, sourcing, contract management, compliance and supplier performance management.

It incorporates San Carlos, California-based diCarta's Contract Management system into the new Emptoris 6.0 platform, which is also offered as a hosted, on-demand solution.

Emptoris has also said that certain modules of the platform have been certified to work with SAP AG's NetWeaver Application Server and Portal. It will continue to certify additional modules over the next six months as well.

The company has also released a new spend-to-contract compliance solution, which officials said provides financial officers a clear and controlled view on their corporate spending and contract compliance.

A move to merge operations is a logical conclusion given the synergies that exist between contract management and spend analysis.

"[We're] both high growth companies and recognized market leaders. [We] focus on solving difficult strategic business problems that positively impact profitability," said Avner Schneur, who remains as Emptoris' CEO.

The companies' software was "cumulatively" used to manage over $3 trillion of spend last year - to help source over $110bn of products and services and manage contracts worth of $65bn.
 

Die machen was die Amis machen und da macht wie meistens nur einer.Man erkennt seine Handschrift.


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As of 10:21:41.185 Terms of Use  

 

Internet Capital Group To Announce First Quarter Results May 4th Before Market Opens



WAYNE, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 21, 2006--Internet Capital Group (NASDAQ:ICGE) will release the financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2006 on Thursday, May 4, 2006, before the market opens.

The Company will host a conference call to discuss the first quarter results on Thursday, May 4, 2006 at 10:00am ET. Participating on the conference call will be Walter Buckley, chairman and chief executive officer and Kirk Morgan, chief financial officer. The domestic dial-in number for the call is 877-407-8035. The international dial-in number is 201-689-8035.

The Company will also host a live web cast for the call with an attached slide presentation. To access the web cast, go to the ICG web site at http://www.internetcapital.com and click on the investor information tab and the icon for the first quarter conference call. Please log on to the web site approximately ten minutes prior to the call to register and download and install any necessary audio software.

In an effort to address specific areas of interest, participants are encouraged to submit questions to the Internet Capital Group Investor Relations department at ir@internetcapital.com prior to May 4th. Every attempt will be made to respond to all questions either during the Question and Answer portion of the call or shortly thereafter.

If you are unable to access the web site but would like a copy of the slide presentation sent to you after the call, please contact ICG's Investor Relations Department at (610) 727-6900.

For those unable to participate in the conference call, a replay will be available beginning May 4, 2006 at 11:00am ET until May 11, 2006 at 11:59pm ET. To access the replay, dial 877-660-6853 (domestic) or 201-612-7415 (international). The access codes are Account #286, Conference ID #200258. The replay and slide presentation can also be accessed on the Internet Capital Group web site: http://www.internetcapital.com/investorinfo-preswebcast.htm.

About Internet Capital Group

Internet Capital Group (www.internetcapital.com) owns and builds Internet software companies that drive business productivity and reduce transaction costs between firms. Founded in 1996, ICG devotes its expertise and capital to maximizing the success of these platform companies that are delivering on-demand software and service applications to customers worldwide.


   CONTACT: Internet Capital GroupKaren Greene, 610-727-6900
            ir@internetcapital.com

   SOURCE: Internet Capital Group
 

Da scheint es jemand zu stinken,dass wir auf großen Posten ICGE sitzen und nichts abgeben.Vielleicht meldet ICGE am 4.Mai einfach zu gute Zahlen und jemand schwächt vorbeugend ab.

Prepare for the Crash
By Richard Gibbons
April 21, 2006

The stock market crash following the Internet bubble destroyed portfolios and dreams. The Nasdaq alone fell from 5,000 to below 1,200 -- a nearly 80% decline. And that's only the average. Many stocks became essentially worthless. The tragedy wasn't in the numbers, though -- it was in the effect those losses had on people. Many investors were completely wiped out, losing money they'd been saving for years.

This really isn't the sort of pain you want to experience firsthand. That's why it makes sense for all investors to have a portfolio that is prepared for lean times. If a terrible day ever comes, you'll want to make sure you suffer only a flesh wound, not decapitation.

 

wenn Du einmal weiter oben nachschaust, Sozialaktionär. Das ist ein völlig Ahnungsloser, der sich auch nicht eine Sekunde mit Internet Capital beschäftigt hat, sondern nur so einfach daher blubbert. Beispielsweise hat der noch nicht mitbekommen, das Internet Capital vor ca. 2 Jahren einen 1:20 Split gemacht hat und daher zum Besten gab, dass Internet Capital heute zu einem Fünfzwanzigstel seines ehemaligen Höchstkurses gehandelt werde, den er bei 212 annnimmt. Fakt ist aber, dass splitbereinigt der Kurs bei 4240 lag und wir uns momentan zwischen einem Vierhunderstel und einem Fünfhunderstel des ehemaligen Kurses bewegen.

Was das allerdings aussagen soll, weiss wahrscheinlich nur der Ahnunglose - denn diese alten Kamellen interesssieren kein Schwein, nur ahnunglose Schwätzer, die sich - siehe obige Ausführungen zum nicht beachten Split - peinliche Dumm-Dumm-Nümmerchen leisten. Mich interessiert z.B. dass Ínternet Capital bei einem Gewinn von 72,5 Millionen in 2005 und einer Marktkaptialisierung von 350 Millionen ein KGV von 5 (in Worten: fünf) hat. Aber auch der nachstehende Autor traut sich nicht, Internet Capital in seine Liste aufzunehmen, denn es wäre nur halb so teuer wie dort angeführten schon extrem billigen Werte.

Gut für Euch, wenn Ihr Euch traut - denn gibt es Internet Capital zu Preisen wie im Paradies.

a stock seems to be too much of a good value that's often because of the baggage that accompanies it. But as the stocks on today’s list illustrate, there are exceptions. You can still find stocks with low P/E ratios that possess strong fundamentals and the potential for growth. More...
 


1. Maverick Tube (MVK) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E Ratio 15. The leader in IBD’s Oil & Gas-Machinery/Equipment group is scheduled to report earnings on April 25. Analysts see profit soaring 126% to $1.67 a share (forward P-E, 9). More.

2. Armor Holdings (AH) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E Ratio 15. The maker of protective armor has a three-year earnings growth rate of 89% and a three-year sales growth rate of 93% (forward P-E, 15). More.

3. Aleris International (ARS) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E Ratio 15. The aluminum company recently agreed to buy Corus’ aluminum rolling and extrusion businesses for $840 million (forward P-E, 11). More.

4. Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E Ratio 14. Last week, the metals processor topped estimates by 15 cents with first-quarter profit of $2.14 a share, up 52% from a year ago. It also upped its second-quarter outlook (forward P-E, 12). More.

5. Chaparral Steel (CHAP) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E ratio 14. Last month, the company reported a 232% rise in quarterly profit. Sales rose 45% to $374.7 million, the third straight quarter of accelerating revenue growth (forward P-E, 10). More.

6. Seacor Holdings (CKH) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E ratio 14. Analysts see first-quarter profit rising 73% to $1.56 a share. The provider of offshore services to the oil and gas industry has a three-year sales growth rate of 31% (forward P-E, 13). More.

7. Goldman Sachs (GS) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E ratio 12. Annual earnings this year are expected to grow 37% to $15.32 a share. In mid-March, the investment bank reported an 84% jump in first-quarter profit and 73% rise in sales (forward P-E, 11). More.

8. Commercial Metals (CMC) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E ratio 11. Annual return on equity in 2005 hit a multi-year year high of 36.6%. The median ROE in its industry group, Metal Processing and Fabrication, is 12.6% (forward P-E, 10). More.

9. USG Corp. (USG) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E ratio 10. The world’s largest maker of wallboard was ranked in the April 17 IBD 100 along with group peer, Lamson & Sessions (forward P-E, 8). More.

10. Valero Energy (VLO) - IBD Stock Checkup  
P-E ratio 10. In the latest reported quarter, 569 mutual funds owned the stock, up from 453 funds in the year-earlier period (forward P-E, 9). More.



Slide Show
 

nur keine Angst.Aber doppeltgemoppelt hält besser.  

Credittrade sitzt, haben die Amis noch gar nicht mitbekommen, denn das könnt Ihr eigentlich nur bei Libuda lesen, der auf deutschen Boards schon vor 18 Monaten auf die gigantischen Chancen hinwies (indem er dies von der Seite von IBM reinstellte) und auch schon davor:

The rise of the credit derivatives industry

 
Author: By Adam Josephson, Analyst, Securities and Investments Group, Celent
Issue date: 12 Oct 2004   Issue No:Volume 5 Number 10





Get the complete issue (156 KB pdf)  
   
 In this issue  
Why risk enterprise risk management
P&C underwriting: the possible  
Action stations for insurers  
Bank’s Financial Intelligence Quotient  
Among the more notable developments in the financial services industry in the past few years has been the remarkable rise of the credit derivatives industry. In the early 1990s, the market was virtually nonexistent; it was not even tracked until 1997. In 2000, the market was valued at approximately US$800 billion notional outstanding, and by 2002 it totaled more than US$2 trillion notional outstanding. Celent expects notional outstanding to exceed US$7 trillion by 2006. Some market participants believe credit derivatives could grow to match the huge interest rate derivatives industry, which is nearly 50 times as large.  

Credit derivatives are bilateral contracts that allow users to manage their exposure to credit risk. As with any other derivative instrument, credit derivatives can be used either to take on more risk or avoid (hedge) it. A market participant who is exposed to the credit risk of a corporation can hedge such exposure by buying protection in the credit derivatives market. Likewise, an investor may be willing to take on that risk by selling protection and thus enhancing the expected return on his portfolio. Historically, banks have been most prone to the former, while insurance companies have often done the latter.

Credit derivatives can be used to create positions that would otherwise not easily be established in the cash market. For instance, consider an investor that has a negative view on the future quality of a given corporation. One strategy for such an investor would be to short the bonds issued by the corporation. However, the corporate repo market and other mechanisms for taking short positions in corporations are not well developed for most individual corporate issuers. By buying protection via a credit default swap (the most popular type of credit derivative), the investor essentially mimics the cash flows of a short position in the corporation’s debt. Should the corporation default, the investor can buy the defaulted debt for its recovery value in the open market and sell it to its counterparty for its face value.

These instruments have truly transformed the corporate bond market. Before the advent of credit derivatives, large companies with at least reasonably good credit ratings could issue bonds underwritten by a Wall Street bank to raise money. Fund managers and individuals would buy the bonds and hold them for years, in many cases until maturity. Now, investors don’t have to buy a corporate bond to place a bet on credit. Instead, banks, insurance companies, hedge funds, and asset managers trade credit default swaps (CDS) — derivatives that are now the leading force in setting bond prices — and indices based on those swaps.

Five years ago, credit default swaps were mostly traded among banks that wanted to manage risk exposures on their loan portfolios and gain regulatory capital relief. Trading volumes and volatility increased substantially as insurance companies and hedge funds entered the market, and growth in the past two years has been most attributable to the trading activities of hedge funds and trading desks of investment banks. Insurance companies are net sellers of protection to earn yield on the premiums they collect; they also buy protection to decrease their credit exposure without having to sell their bonds. Hedge funds (and proprietary trading desks at banks) have a rather different agenda. Many are uninterested in the merits of a long-term investment in a company’s bonds. Some engage in capital structure arbitrage, which exploits mispricings between a company’s equity and debt. Others focus on convertible arbitrage, which does the same with convertible bonds and equity. In short, hedge funds take a number of positions that have nothing to do with a company’s overall credit quality.

However, that need not serve as reassurance for companies whose bond yields are volatile. The entities that form the credit derivatives market are quick to spot companies whose credit is less than stellar. Measured over a year, the market is better at predicting defaults than ratings agencies, which can be slow to downgrade companies. Fitch, a ratings agency, pointed out that the spread on CDS suggested there was a 20 percent chance of Sprint’s defaulting in the summer of 2002 even though it had an investment grade rating. Some bankers, in fact, envision that the CDS market will replace the credit ratings agencies because CDS provide a more timely indication of a company’s credit standing than the formal ratings.

A critical element of the developing market for portfolio credit risk has been the growth of trading in credit indices. In an effort to build greater transparency, liquidity and acceptance of CDS, securities dealers created two CDS indices in 2003, TRAC-X and iBoxx. They were based on CDSs on large, equally weighted baskets of names traded in the market. Trading of these indices was robust, but was hampered by the lack of a single market; individually the indices were less liquid and it was unclear whether one would come to dominate the market. That ceased to be a problem in late June, when the two indices merged. DJ iTraxx Europe was introduced and was soon followed by versions for the US and Asia. The merger has led to a dramatic increase in trading volumes. In the month following the merger, volumes rose three - to fourfold in Europe, according to JPMorgan.

Trading has a ways to go yet

Credit derivatives deals have largely been processed manually, and only with improved straight-through processing (STP) and greater standardization will the market be able to become more efficient, and consequently more liquid. Along those lines, the leading dealers in the market have devised a three-year strategy to bring the necessary automation and STP to the derivatives markets, and market participants view these timelines as reasonable. The technology and infrastructure are in place for the automation of trade verification, confirmation, and legal execution, as well as the improved settlement of credit derivatives. Many participants, for instance, are already using the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s automated trade matching and cash flow matching services. The proposed standard for OTC derivatives, FpML, is becoming established for external data exchange, and a host of large dealers in the market already use it in internal systems.

Standardization appears on the horizon as well. Most of the large dealers are using a reference entity database (RED) — a cleaned set of data on credit entities and obligations associated with their bond issues. The database has classified all traded credits, eliminating confusion during trading. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association has brought some standardization to CDS, producing standard templates that market participants can use for their deals and recommending standard processes, such as the quarterly settlement of transactions. Contracts have now been reduced to a standard structure, making them far easier to process manually and introducing the possibility of electronic processing. Equally important are the standard processes that have been introduced. Unlike in previous years, market participants adhere to standard maturity dates for the index products. Eventually the most liquid CDSs will be standardized as well, leading to a more liquid market.

A natural byproduct of the increased automation and standardization of the market has been the introduction of electronic trading. The inter-dealer broker Creditex launched an electronic trading platform for credit indices in February, and GFI launched a platform for trading indices and CDS in August. Creditex’s platform has been a success thus far. Electronic trading brings greater transparency, leading to narrower bid-offer spreads and cheaper trading costs. Most trades are still voice-brokered, but several brokers already have electronic platforms or are developing them. Despite the obvious attractions of electronic trading, the market will remain a hybrid one. Banks are keen to direct the largest deals to traders to process so as to avoid any colossal mistakes; voice brokers can sometimes more easily put a deal in the market bit by bit to hide its overall size and avoid moving the price adversely.

The next major development to hit the market will be the spread of electronic trading, hence creating the need for automated pricing engines. For any high-volume market to be active, its large dealers need to have automated pricing engines that send out bid-ask offers and respond to inquiries in real time. Once there is sufficient client demand in any market, dealers build the engines and links to existing platforms. These engines are fairly standard in the foreign exchange, global government bond, agency, and mortgage markets, as well as for liquid corporate bonds, on which most CDS are based. Banks are starting to contemplate enhancing engines for corporate bonds, and when they do the market will become far more actively traded than it already is.

All the pieces are in place for robust growth in the years to come. How much room does the market have to grow? A managing director at Deutsche Bank, one of the largest dealers in the market, said only about 30—40 percent of all potential users are using index products. He also expects substantial growth in use from clients that already trade the product.


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Ich hatte Euch ja schon einmal auf den Artikel in Fortune hingewiesen, der heute in Yahoo wieder bei Internet Capital auftaucht und wo Internet Capital benannt wird, und zwar in folgendem Zusammenhang: "For instance, at $400, Google (Research) trades for about 33 times Wall Street's estimates of 2007 earnings of $12 per share. That's rich but hardly stratospheric. Compare that with shares of Internet Capital Group (Research), which at their peak in 2000 traded for well over 400 times the company's 2001 sales." Seltsamerweise führt der Autor nicht an, dass Internet Capital damals einen Kurs von 4280 hatte, im Vergleich zu einem Kurs von etwa mehr als neun Dollar heute. Und er führt auch nicht an, dass bei Internet Capital nach Abzug der Nettocash die anteiligen Umsatze der Beteiligungen nur mit dem Zweifachen des Umsatzes bewertet werden - statt mit dem 400-fachen wie im Jahr 2000. Und absoluter Pfusch wird der Artikel in Fortune dadurch, dass man auf die KGV's von Unternehmen hinweist, die für einen zweiten Boom gerüstet sind, weil sie nur KGV's von im Schnitt 35 hätten, während man auf das KGV von 5 bei Internet Capital nicht hinweist, die damit die wohl billigste Internet-Aktie weltweit ist.


10 ways to play the new Net boom
Web companies are on fire again. Here's the smart way to invest without getting burned.
By Adam Lashinsky, FORTUNE senior writer
April 24, 2006: 10:32 AM EDT


SAN FRANCISCO (FORTUNE) - It's time to say hello to the new Net boom. And believe it or not, it's a boom you'll very likely want to invest in - even if you think (as we do) that Google at $400 a share is too scary to consider.

Here are FORTUNE's ten smart ways to invest -- these seven stocks and three funds stand to benefit from the resurgence of the Net.


Ten ways to play the new Net boom

These seven stocks and three funds stand to benefit from the resurgence of the Net.

Company (Ticker) Curr. price P/E

Adobe (ADBE) $37.19 28
Akamai (AKAM) $34.03 44
Cisco (CSCO) $20.46 20
Comcast (CMCSA) $28.46 38
Navteq (NVT) $53.42 42
News Corp. (NWS) $17.81 19
Yahoo (YHOO) $32.98 57

Fund (Ticker) 1yr perf Exp.

Fidelity Select Tech (FSPTX) 19.60% 1.01%
Jacob Internet (JAMFX) 44.90% 2.64%
Legg Mason Value (LMVTX) 12.70% 1.68%

Stock prices as of: Apr 24 16:00.
Price/earnings ratios as of April 13, based on estimated 2006 earnings.
Fund data as of: March 31, 2006


The Internet, as you well know, didn't vanish along with all the over-hyped dot-coms of the late 90s. Today the Net is fulfilling many of the visions its wild-eyed prophets were preaching about just a few years ago. All the impossibly cool applications that seemed so elusive in the late 1990s - Internet phone calls, (legal) downloadable music and movies, high-speed Web access on cellphones, online bill paying - are a taken-for-granted part of daily life. (This is an excerpt from a story in the May 1, 2006 issue of FORTUNE. To read the complete story, click here or go to www.fortune.com.)

Driving this transformation is the extraordinary growth in the number of people with access to high-speed Internet connections. In 2000 just five million Americans had fast Internet access at home. At the end of 2005 that figure was 73 million, according to the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

Those speedy connections have supercharged the online experience, and people are doing exactly what you'd expect: spending vast amounts of time with their eyes glued to computer screens. More important, companies have finally figured out the long-sought key to "monetizing" those eyeballs, mainly by selling advertising, but also by charging for music and video downloads, not to mention for the access itself.

The not-so-surprising result is that the Internet industry isn't just back, it's better than it was before. Google isn't merely a ubiquitous (and free) research tool, though it certainly is that. Google, the online advertising company, generates billions of dollars in profits. (Yes, billions, and yes, profits.)

The iPod isn't just the hottest toy on the planet. It's a product that pumped $4.5 billion of sales into Apple's (Research) coffers last year - and wouldn't be such a success if it weren't tied to Apple's digital jukebox, iTunes. The iTunes Music Store has sold more than a billion songs online in the past three years.

Click here to see the top ten stocks and funds


We know what you're thinking right about now: If there's a boom underway, then the Wall Street crowd must be fixing to sell us something. After all, we've been down this path before. But the investing landscape is very different this time.

In Boom 1.0, any company with buzz and a business plan rushed to go public long before it had any profits. Now standards for IPOs are higher. And with tough reporting requirements imposed by the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate-governance law, fewer companies are even attempting to go public.

Another crucial difference for investors: Today's Net stocks are far more reasonably priced than the highfliers of the dot-com era. For instance, at $400, Google (Research) trades for about 33 times Wall Street's estimates of 2007 earnings of $12 per share. That's rich but hardly stratospheric. Compare that with shares of Internet Capital Group (Research), which at their peak in 2000 traded for well over 400 times the company's 2001 sales.

We set out to find the best ways for investors to participate in the new Net boom. Even if you have no intention of committing fresh money, understanding this landscape is an increasing imperative for every investor and every business. A company doesn't have to be a dot-com or a "Net stock" to be a beneficiary - or a casualty - of this boom.

We looked at five key areas: big tech, pure Net plays, infrastructure firms, broadband providers, and media conglomerates. In the end we identified seven stocks - as well as three mutual funds - that seem poised to profit. Click here to see our picks.

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Daher gilt, solange noch genügend Leser dem Märchenerzähler lauschen, der zu faul ist sich zu informieren sollte man kaufen.
 

Starcite, wo Internet Capital 61% hält. Mit 670 Millionen in diesem Quartal ist der Umsatz auf dem Marktplatz noch stärker gestiegen als von mir erwartet - im vierten Quartal 2005 waren es noch 550 Millionen.

Setzt sich das in so fort, ergäbe sich:

1. Quartal: 670 Millionen

2. Quartal: 790 Millionen

3. Quartal: 910 Millionen

4. Quartal: 1010 Millionen

Insgesamt lägen wir dann bei einem Marktplatzumsatz von 3,4 Milliarden Dollar - ich hatte eine Steigerung von zwei auf drei Milliarden Marktplatzumsatz in 2006 vorausgesagt.

StarCite Kicks Off 2006 with Strong Momentum
Tuesday April 25, 9:00 am ET  
Launch of Innovative Services, New Hires and Continued Global Expansion Close Out Excellent First Quarter


PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 25, 2006--StarCite, Inc., the leading provider of On Demand Global Meeting Solutions(TM), today announced that the firm closed out the first quarter of 2006 with record-breaking growth for the StarCite Marketplace, driving 47% more commerce through the Marketplace as compared to the same quarter in 2005. In addition, during the quarter the firm launched its new Supplier Response Center and Meeting Estimator(TM) tool and announced two new executive appointments in support of its continued growth.
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"2006 has started off with a bang," said Michael Boult, president and CEO of StarCite. "In addition to a 47% increase in commerce through our Online Marketplace this quarter compared to 2005, we have experienced tremendous growth in sales and registration activity, which has paved the way for a year of continued success. We are thrilled with our momentum as our growing client base looks to us for help managing their meeting spend with innovative technology tools, strong customer service and the most comprehensive online marketplace available."

New Product Launches

In the first quarter of 2006, StarCite officially launched its Supplier Response Center, which is the first module of its GMS platform. The Supplier Response Center helps suppliers manage and respond to electronic RFPs with more efficiency. The firm also launched Meeting Estimator(TM), a tool that lets meeting planners make more informed decisions by quickly comparing the potential costs of holding a meeting in different locations. In a simple three-step process, meeting planners can enter the basic departure and destination information for attendees and get estimates for holding a meeting in various locations before having to make a financial commitment.

New Hires

StarCite recently named Michael Malinchok as vice president of Partner Development and Jason Atlas as vice president of Product Development. Mr. Malinchok has joined StarCite to lead the firm's Strategic Partners Program. With 22 years of experience in the meetings industry, he is responsible for forging industry alliances, identifying new areas of opportunity and driving increased value for both StarCite and its strategic partners. Previously, Mr. Malinchok was vice president for WTMI's meetings technology operations in which he spearheaded the development of a strategic partnership with StarCite.

As vice president of product development, Mr. Atlas brings 15 years of leadership experience in Internet and core server software product design as well as enterprise service management. He is responsible for all phases of StarCite's technology development including product specification, engineering, quality assurance and documentation as well as leading the firm's offshore initiatives. Prior to joining StarCite, Mr. Atlas was director of Media Technologies at Bloomberg LP and held positions at Microsoft where he pioneered several product developments.

Relationship Building

During the first quarter, StarCite added new marquee clients for its technology platform including two large financial and investment services companies, a major food and beverage manufacturer, and a leading incentive and event planning company. StarCite acquired significant new business with several other major corporations through collaborative business wins with its strategic partners. The firm closed a new strategic partnership with WorldTravel Meetings & Incentives and renewed its 5-year contract with HelmsBriscoe.

StarCite's global solutions continue to expand within its existing client base. In the first quarter, StarCite began providing Cisco Systems with strategic sourcing in Asia-Pacific and expanded its deployment with Motorola to the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East and Africa). StarCite also expanded its relationships with HP, Virtual Meeting Strategies and the American Cancer Society.

Supplier and Destination Marketing

The marketing consortiums in Peru and Austria were expanded in the first quarter to include agreements with both nations' tourism offices and new local destination partners. StarCite also signed new marketing partnerships with Barcelo Hotels, Hilton Garden Inn, LXR Luxury Resorts, Palace Resorts and Leading Hotels of the World. Crowne Plaza, Embassy Suites, NH Hotels and the Remington Hotel Management Company expanded their existing marketing partnerships.

Marketplace Growth

StarCite showed exceptional growth within its Online Marketplace, as commerce flowing through the Marketplace grew a total of 47% in the first quarter of 2006 compared to the same quarter in 2005, reaching new company highs. StarCite delivered more than 150,000 gross RFPs in the quarter to hotels, providing $681 million in meeting RFP opportunities. These RFPs supplied more than 2 million room night leads to hotels, an average of 144 nights per lead. On a daily basis, the Marketplace provided more than $10 million worth of lead opportunities to hotels.

About StarCite, Inc.

StarCite, Inc. is the leading provider of On Demand Global Meeting Solutions(TM). StarCite optimizes global investments in corporate meetings and events delivering visibility, savings and control. StarCite provides process efficiency, enabling technology and proven adoption management support to drive significant cost reduction to buyers and enhanced revenues to suppliers. StarCite is based in Philadelphia. Investors in StarCite include Internet Capital Group (NASDAQ: ICGE - News); Maritz Travel Company; Seaport Capital; and TL Ventures.
 

Der will das man das sieht.

10:08:29.324 B 89  9.2100  

10:08:29.268 B 11  9.2100  

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10:08:29.254 B 11  9.2100  

10:08:29.254 B 89  9.2100  

10:08:02.275 B 11  9.2100  

10:08:02.275 B 89  9.2100  

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10:07:58.309 B 89  9.2100  

10:07:55.195 B 11  9.2100
 

werden die im vorletzten Posting angeführte Starcite zu einer Perle im Portfolio von Internet Capital machen. Trotz der 3 Milliarden Dollar Umsatz auf dem Marktplatz und weitere Erlösen aus Software und anderen Dienstleistungen ist Starcite sicher kein Umsatzriese - ich schätze den Umsatz in 2006 auf 25 Millionen. Da es schon einmal hieß, als der Umsatz noch sehr viel geringer war, dass sie vor dem Erreichen der Gewinnzone stünden, gehe ich davon aus, dass dies in 2006 der Fall sein wird.

Ist aber die Gewinngrenze erst einmal überschritten, erleben wir erplodierende Gewinne wie das bei anderen Netzfirmen, siehe z.B. Google, auch der Fall war.

Da wirkt zum einen der Netzeffekt: Mit jedem neuen Kunden wird Starcite für andere Kunden attraktiver und es kommen daraufhin weitere Kunden - und neben Starcite ist weitgehend nur noch die Wand. Starcite ist mit weitem Abstand der dominierende Marktplatz im Meeting-Bereich.

Die Gewinne hebeln, weil zusätzliche Erlöse weitgehend zusätzlich Gewinne sind, da die Grenzkosten, d.h. die zusätzlichen Kosten, sehr niedrig sind - sehr viel weniger steigen als die zusätzlichen Erlöse.

Und schließlich ist das Marktpotenzial erst angeritzt, denn vom weltweiten Meeting-Umsatz in Höhe von 300 Millliarden würde selbst bei einer Steigerung des Marktplatzumsatzes bei Starcite auf über drei Milliarden erst ein Prozent über Starcite laufen - das Potenzial ist somit gigantisch, auch wenn nie alles elektronisch abgewickelt werden wird.  

den Kurs nach unten zu manipulieren? Auch heute und gestern ist bzw. war das extrem der Fall.

Ich habe ja hier schon oft nach Gründen gesucht, bin aber nicht richtig fündig geworden. Auch nicht über die Art und Weise, denn es geht meines Erachtens nicht ohne nacktes Shorten in erheblichem Umfang. Allerdings müssen die Institutionen, die das in den USA können nach 60 Tagen entweder eingedeckt haben oder eine Wertpapierleihe durchführen. Meines Erachtens funktioniert ein "Überrollen" von nicht in den Statistiken auftauchende nackten Leerverkäufen nur, wenn sich mindestens zwei Spieler abwechseln. Bis jetzt scheint das die SEC zuzulassen - oder sie haben es noch nicht gemerkt, weil wir ein Unternehmen von "nur" 360 Millionen Dollar Marktkapitalisierung haben.  

http://www.ecredit.com/docs/customers.php

Leider hält hier Internet Capital auch nur noch 31% - es waren einmal 99%. Im Rahmen der Expansion von Ecrecit.com hat man dann aber nach und nach noch vier weitere Wagniskapitalgeber mit hinzugenommen. Andererseits wäre vor zwei oder drei Jahren die Expansion von Ecredit.com eventenuell nicht möglich gewesen, weil da Internet Capital noch nicht so im Geld schwamm wie heute.

Immerhin sind auch 31% an einem so aussichtsreichen Unternehmen wie Ecredit.om auch nicht schlecht, obwohl deren Geschäftsfeld immer ein Nische bleiben wird.  

denn ich habe selten in einer doch schon fast vier Jahrzehnte andauernden Börsenlaufbahn erlebt, dass der Kurs einer Aktie derart manipuliert wird, wie das bei Internet Capital der Fall ist. Auf der Verkaufsseite hatten wir fast ausschließlich Leerverkäufe, die irgendwann einmal eingedeckt werden müssen.

Das große Rätsel ist: Wie kann das fuktionieren?

Meine Antwort seit heute: Vermutlich überhaupt nicht - da hat sich jemand, vermutlich aber nicht nur einer, extrem in die Scheisse gerammelt. Und zwar in Form von nacktem Shorten. Und vermutlich sind die nicht ganz so stark, wie ich angenommen habe, denn sonst hätten sie die Aktie heute nicht derart hochgehen lassen.

Denn was glaubt der Markt? Jeder weiss, dass die Aktie gestern extrem nach unten manipuliert wurde, um dem Markt zu signalisieren, dass selbst extrem gute Nachrichten wie die von Starcite nichts bewirken. Logischerweise kann man derartige Manipulationen gegen gute Fundamentals nicht lange durchhalten. Aber dass man schon nach einem Tag aufgibt?  

Langfristig funktioniert das logischerweise nicht, wie wir am Anstieg von 3,40 Dollar auf heute 9,30 Dollar erkennen können - kurzfristig schon mit Leerverkäufen und gekauften Artikeln in Presseorganen, zuletzt in Fortune und bei Motley Fool. Dummerweise für die Leerverkäufer waren die gekauften "Journalisten" aber so hohl, dass auch der Dümmste erkennen konnte, dass hier Gekaufte operierten. Einer von ihnen wusste z.B. nicht einmal, dass vor zwei Jahren ein 20:1-Split erfolgt war - Argmentationen, die um den Faktor 20 danebenliegen, sind besonders lustig.

Immermehr setzt sich auch in den USA die Meinung durch, die im folgenden Posting gipfelt:

Re: This stock is going to $15
by: t0b00t  04/26/06 09:29 am
Msg: 240522 of 240529

I sure wish it would begin the journey. Net software is hot and getting hotter. Let's get going. FREEBORDERS IPO would be a good start.


 

zur gestrigen Präsentation von Freeborders in New York?  

die die 61%-Beteiligung von Internet Captial Starcite in 2006 über ihren Marktplatz laufen lassen kann, hat ihren Ursprung auch in Deutschland:

StarCite Online-Schulungen


11. April 2006

StarCite, weltweiter Anbieter von webbasierten Meeting-Management Lösungen bietet auch in 2006 regelmäßig Online-Schulungen für Hotelpartner an. So verzeichneten die ersten Online-Trainings im neuen Jahr bereits über 170 Teilnehmer. Die Online-Trainings laufen über WebEx ab und vermitteln Basisinformationen zum Umgang mit den StarCite Tools „SOM“ (StarCite Online Marketplace) und „RRFP“ (StarCite Rapid RFP). Teilnehmen können alle Mitarbeiter aus der Hotelindustrie. Die Teilnahme ist für deutsche Hotels kostenfrei, die Einwahl zum Conference Call erfolgt über eine Toll Free Nummer. Auf Wunsch können zudem Brand Trainings für Hotelketten durchgeführt werden. Interessenten wenden sich direkt an StarCite unterwww.starcite-europe.com.  

http://www.starcite.com/rapidrfp/wizards/german.asp  

der Internet Capital-Beteiligung:

http://www.starcite-europe.com/ger/german.htm  

zeigt die nachstehende Darstellung von Mark Hulbert im Market Watch. Obwohl hier erstmals auf jemanden verwiesen wird, der sich getraut, Internet Capital als großartige Langfristchance herauszustellen, wie ich das hier ja schon seit längerer Zeit tue, blickt der gute Mark Hulbert nicht so richtig durch. Und da wir mir wieder einmal klar, dass das für den weniger mit wirtschaftlichen Dingen vertrauten noch schwieriger ist. Zum Beispiel sein Satz: "ICG's annual revenues are a still modest $50 million, but it has interests in 20 portfolio companies, plus cash and marketable securities of about $200 million." zeigt doch der positiven Berichterstattung über Internet Capital auch viel Ahnungslosigkeit - ob er es nicht besser kann (fehlendes grundsätzliches Wissen) oder zu faul zum soliden Rechercieren war, sei einmal dahingestellt. Fakt ist, dass seine Aussage über die 50 Millionen Umsatz bei Internet Capital und ein Vergleich mit den anderen Inkubatoren CMGI und Safeguard in diesem Punkt absoluter Blödsinn ist. Denn in die 50 Millionen Umsätze fließen nur die Umsätze von Beteiligungen ein, bei denen Internet Capital mehr als 50% hält, das sind von insgesamt 20 Beteiligungen gerade einmal drei: ICGCommerce, Starcite und Investoreforce. Von den restlichen Beteiligungen fließt von etwa der Hälfe der Beteiligunhgen vom laufenden Geschäft nur der Saldo zwischen Erlösen und Aufwendungen ein, also Gewinn oder Verlust, was sich in etwa aufhebt oder bei der anderen Hälfte überhaupt nichts (erst bei einem Verkauf würde die Differenz zwischen dem Buchwert und dem Verkaufserlös erscheinen).

Die anteiligen Umsätze (Ümsätze mal Beteiligungsquote) der nicht börsennotierten Beteiligungen bei Internet Capital werden im übrigen teilweise veröffentlicht und das hätte auch der Autor nachlesen können, wozu er nur den Quartalsbericht hätte vornehmen müssen. Dort steht zum Beispiel allein schon für acht Kernbeteiligungen ein Wert, der sich auf einen anteiligen Jahresumsatz von fast 100 Millionen hochrechnen lässt. Insgesamt dürften wir da bei nicht börsennotierten Beteiligungen bei einem Wert von 120 bis 125 Millionen in 2006 liegen.

Ein Umsatzvergleich z.B. mit Safeguard ist besonders absurd, weil  die seit ca. drei Jahren grundsätzlich Mehrheitsbeteiligungen anstreben, womit die Umsätze dieser Beteiligungen auch bei Safteguard auftauchen. Ähnlich ist es auch bei CMGI. Auf der anderen Seite zeigt sich aber auch das enorme Potenzial von Internet Capital, das selbst von Wirtschaftsjournalisten aus Ahnungslosigkeit und/oder Faulheit nur teilweise erkannt wird.
MARK HULBERT
Contrarian's contrarian goes glamorous
Commentary: Putnam picks onetime Internet boom companies
E-mail | Print |  | Disable live quotes By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:05 AM ET Apr 27, 2006


ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) - The Turnaround Letter is recommending what?
The newsletter's editor, George Putnam, is by all measures a genuine contrarian, favoring stocks that have been beaten down and are so out of favor that they may represent (hopefully) good long-term value. Unlike many other advisers who say they are contrarians but who turn out to secretly favor the glamorous stocks that are Wall Street's current darlings, Putnam actually walks the walk.
In fact, according to a study of the investment newsletters monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest, conducted by Andrew Metrick of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, no service is further away from the glamour end of the value-vs.-glamour spectrum than the Turnaround Letter.
Furthermore, Exhibit A in the case for avoiding glamour is what happened to Internet stocks in 2000. As is obvious to nearly everyone now but at the time to only a few advisers like Putnam, such stocks were being bid up into the stratosphere by investors who had lost touch with reality.
So I definitely sat up and took notice earlier this month upon receiving the latest issue of Putnam's newsletter. In it, he recommended the stocks of three companies that, perhaps more than any, epitomized investors' fantasy thinking at the height of the Internet boom.
The three firms are all Internet incubators, companies that help start-up Internet companies get off the ground in return for an ownership stake. Such firms definitely captured investors' attention in the go-go years of the late 1990s.
As Putnam puts it, "even in that era of extraordinary valuations, the Internet incubators stood out. For example, when the stock of CMGI peaked at 163 (split adjusted) in early 2000, the company had a market capitalization of more than $46 billion. At that time CMGI had revenues of $175 million, giving it a price to sales ratio of about 260. And the company had operating losses of $126 million."
What has changed over the last six years to these internet incubators to interest a contrarian like Putnam? The most obvious, of course, is that their stock prices are a lower now than then - a whole lot lower. A share of CMGI (CMGI : CMGI Inc.
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CMGI1.45, -0.02, -1.4%) , for example, closed Wednesday for $1.45, less than 1% of its all-time high.
An equally important development in catalyzing Putnam's interest is that, in his opinion, these incubators have transformed themselves into "real businesses."
Putting these two factors together, Putnam believes that these incubators now "represent interesting long term options on some potentially promising new ventures."
The three Internet incubators that Putnam focuses on in particular are:
CMGI. "CMGI has developed a substantial supply chain management business with annual revenue of $1.1 billion that generates a small profit. Its price to sales ratio today is a much more reasonable 0.66. In addition to its supply chain business, CMGI still has a portfolio of 19 venture capital investments ... Moreover, CMGI has little debt and $163 million of cash and marketable securities."
Internet Capital Group (ICGE : internet cap group inc com new
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ICGE0.00, 0.00, 0.0%) . "ICG's annual revenues are a still modest $50 million, but it has interests in 20 portfolio companies, plus cash and marketable securities of about $200 million." ICGE closed Wednesday at $9.25, versus a high of more than $4,000 per share in 2000.
Safeguard Scientifics (SFE : Safeguard Scientifics, Inc.
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SFE0.00, 0.00, 0.0%) . This company "has annual revenues of a little over $186 million. It owns interests in 12 portfolio companies and has cash and marketable securities of about $170 million." It closed Wednesday at $2.50, vs. a high of near $100 per share at the height of the internet boom.
One indication of how out of favor these stocks currently are: Two of these three stocks aren't recommended by any other newsletter that the Hulbert Financial Digest tracks. And the third, SFE, is recommended by just two.  
 

denn die Sonderangebote des Shortseller um die 9,15 Dollar sind nicht von Dauer. Denn er hat keinerlei Chance den Kurs nach unten zu schaukeln, die guten Fundamentals werden immer erdrückender. Auch wenn es in dem obigen Artikel ein Wirtschaftsjournalist, der sich angeblich mit Internet Capital beschäftigt hat, nicht gemerkt hat, dass in 2005 der Gewinn bei 72,5 Millionen lag, was einem KGV von 5 entspricht, nicht alle sind so blöd.

Z.B. nicht die Instiutionals, die inzwischen bei einer Beteiligungsquote von 58,8% liegen.