Kursverdoppelung bei Actua Corporation (vorm. Internet Capital)
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Last Trade: 8.99
was absolut nachahmenswert ist.
Trade Time: 1:20PM ET
Change: 0.18 (1.96%)
Prev Close: 9.17
Open: 9.13
Bid: 8.99 x 13900
Ask: 9.00 x 700
1y Target Est: 11.45
Day's Range: 8.96 - 9.20
52wk Range: 5.34 - 10.04
Volume: 95,075
Avg Vol (3m): 475,695
Market Cap: 352.11M
P/E (ttm): 5.19
EPS (ttm): 1.73
Div & Yield: N/A (N
Über Starcite liefen davon 2005 erst etwas mehr als zwei Milliarden Dollar, wobei Starcite mit haushohem Abstand die größte elektronische Plattform ist. Kein Wunder, dass der neue CEO bei seiner Antrittsrede Mitte 2005 davon sprach, dass man relativ einfach und in kurzer Zeit verzehnfachen könne - 20 Milliarden sind gerade einmal erst kanpp 7% des Marktvolumens, das allerdings logischerweise nie komplett elektronisch abgewickelt werden wird.
StarCite Rolls Out Budget Estimator
Meetings technology firm StarCite Inc. said that it plans to launch a new tool on April 4 that would give meeting planners the ability to quickly compare the potential costs of holding a meeting in various locations. The Meeting Estimator tool automatically calculates total and average per-person costs for a meeting based on the locations from where attendees originate and by data gathered through the company's database of online meeting-related supplier proposals. Planners can compare destinations by city or by arrival airport. Other key features of the cost-comparison tool include the ability to account for attendees who will not need transportation or hotel rooms and the ability to export such data to Excel spreadsheets. In addition, the Philadelphia-based company on March 23 said that it would begin moving supplier partners to the first module of its new integrated platform. The Global Meeting Solutions platform (Meetings Today, Aug. 15, 2005) includes a "supplier response center" designed to streamline requests for proposals. "The improved user interface incorporates the latest in technology to provide easy navigation, increased search capabilities, and visibility of key information. Icons next to each clearly indicate whether an RFP is open, closed or forwarded. Hover the mouse pointer over the RFP name and a text box opens displaying further details," the company announced in its monthly newsletter.
Fazit: Diese Geschenke des Shortsellers, über dessen Motive nicht nur ich rätsele, sollte man annehmen.
Noch einmal zum Shortseller: Ich kann mir nur schwer vorstellen, dass er in dem stabilen Aufwärtstrend seit zwei Jahren Geld verdient hat. Aber auch in und andere sind auf der Motivsuche noch zu keinem Ergebnis gekommen. Ich wollte ja nicht ausschließen, dass da jemand mit Übernahmegelüsten am Werk ist - andererseits würde das die SEC als unerlaubte Kursmanipulation interpretieren. Daher neige ich inzwischen auch zu der Meinung von Sozialaktionär, dass sich der Shortseller schlicht und einfach verspekuliert und die Zeiten von 2000 bis 2002/3, wo man mit Shortselling in Internet Capital viel Geld verdienen konnte, einfach fortverlängert.
den Kurs zu manipulieren, denn in einem Punkt muss ich mich korrigieren. Neben den inzwischen sage und schreibe 58,6% Institutionals ist auch der Prozentsatz, der Unternehmensleitung größer als die 2%, die ich bisher angegeben hatte. Allein die nachstehende 5 Personen aus der Unternehmenleistung/dem Aufsichsrat halten schon 3,5%, mit dem Rest liegen wir das sicher bei 4%. Zusammen mit den 58,6% Institutionals sind das dann schon 62,6%, auf die der Shortseller nur bedingt Zugriff hätte - und auf die 0,04 von Libuda auch nicht.
Holder Shares Reported
BUCKLEY, WALTER W III 556,793 7-Dec-05
ALEXANDER, DOUGLAS A. 349,280 24-Feb-06
DOLANSKI, ANTHONY P. 196,704 22-Jul-05
ZISMAN, MICHAEL D. 186,643 13-Dec-05
GERRITY, THOMAS P. 67,128 3-Apr-06
http://www.btnmag.com/businesstravelnews/...vnu_content_id=1002275519
Einschränkend muss man allerdings sagen, dass die Provisionserlöse weit unter denen der Buchungssysteme für Individualreisen liegen. Zusammen mit anderen Erlösen (Software für Planung von Meetings, Marketingsaktions usw.) wäre ich schon mit Erlösen von 25 Millionen zufrieden. Börsennotierte Buchungssysteme werden mit einem Umsatzmultiple von ca. 10 bewertet, was auf einen Wert von Starcite von 200 bis 250 Millionen hinausliefe. Was das für die 61% von Internet Capital bedeutet, könnt Ihr Euch sicher selbst ausrechnen. Daher hatte ich ja Starcite auch zu den vier Beteiligungen gezählt, die die Hürde der dreistelligen Millionenzahl schaffen.
15:20:39.717 S 100 9.1100
15:20:22.927 B 95 9.1200
15:20:22.927 B 205 9.1200
15:20:14.801 B 195 9.1200
15:20:14.801 B 5 9.1200
15:20:12.646 B 95 9.1200
15:20:12.646 B 5 9.1200
15:20:10.298 B 95 9.1200
15:20:10.298 B 5 9.1200
15:20:04.222 B 95 9.1200
15:18:38.228 B 5 9.1200
15:18:09.174 S 5 9.1100
15:18:09.174 S 95 9.1100
15:18:01.576 S 200 9.1100
15:17:23.586 S 5 9.1100
15:17:20.923 B 95 9.1200
15:17:20.923 B 5 9.1200
15:17:16.607 B 95 9.1200
15:17:16.201 B 100 9.1200
Deshalb zum x-ten Mal, nachdem ich auf folgende Frage noch nie eine Antwort bekommen habe: Ist es nach dem US-Recht möglich, dass jemand leer verkauft und dann kurze Zeit später ein Übernahmeangebot macht?
Safeworks to Power Credit Management with eCredit
— Premier Global Provider of Construction Safety Solutions Selects eCredit Through NACM Business Credit Services (Seattle) —
DEDHAM, Mass. and Seattle, WA April 18, 2006 — Safeworks LLC, the premier provider of safe and efficient powered access, fall protection and containment solutions, today announced that it has selected eCredit to manage its credit approval process. This announcement follows a recent software reseller agreement between eCredit and NACM Business Credit Services in Seattle, and the purchase of eCredit by Safeworks is a result of the strong partnership between the leading credit and collections solutions provider and regional NACM affiliate. Replacing a competing solution, eCredit will help Safeworks centralize and accelerate the credit approval process on an on demand web-based platform.
"Compared with the system we have now, we expect eCredit to not only be easier to use but also to be more effective in providing access to multiple data bureaus," said Deena Hyman, Credit Manager, Safeworks LLC. "In addition, eCredit's affiliation with NACM Business Credit Services provides an additional level of confidence in the product's ability to deliver results. By integrating all customer and payment information, eCredit will allow us to more consistently manage our portfolio of accounts and lower our overall risk."
eCredit provides a suite of solutions designed to help businesses of any size, in any industry, optimize their credit and collections operations, lowering DSO and bad debt and reducing overall portfolio risk. eCredit's flexible credit scoring and collections automation software drives departmental efficiencies and ensures the accuracy and predictability of credit decisions on new and existing customers. As a reseller of eCredit software, NACM Business Credit Services will offer these specific solutions directly to its members.
"Entering into a reseller agreement with the leading credit management software provider makes perfect sense for NACM Business Credit Services in Seattle and we are very pleased to be offering this best in class product directly to our members," said Karen Parks, Vice President, NACM Business Credit Services. "We expect that this Safeworks win will be the first in a long line of successes that can be attributed to this partnership."
"Safeworks LLC's selection of eCredit over a competing solution through NACM Business Credit Services in Seattle is just one sign of the strength of our partnership with this and other NACM affiliates," said Jeff Dickerson, eCredit President and CEO. "We are very confident that our NACM partners will continue to deliver results and bring their constituents greater access to eCredit's world class solutions."
About eCredit
eCredit is the leading provider of online solutions for credit and collections professionals. Its award-winning on-demand software supports the mission critical processes of granting credit, monitoring portfolio risk, and collecting accounts receivables. eCredit also offers a comprehensive industry specific credit reporting and scoring solution that includes tens of millions of trade experiences on millions of companies, developed as a result of 14 years of credit management leadership. With deep roots in the credit and collections community, eCredit has continually demonstrated results by helping companies reduce bad debt and DSO while improving productivity and lowering costs. eCredit is a private company headquartered in Dedham, Massachusetts. Major clients include AB Electrolux, American Airlines, Chevron, Cisco, Ferguson, Samsung Electronics, Cargill, NEC Financial, Graybar, CDW, Sun Microsystems, and Ryder System. For more information, please visit www.ecredit.com.
eCredit.com and the eCredit.com logo are registered trademarks.
About NACM Business Credit Services
A not-for-profit organization with approximately 1,100 members, NACM Business Credit Services offers credit reports, collection services, industry credit groups and educational development tools (publications, seminars, credit courses).
The National Association of Credit Management was founded in 1896, in Toledo, Ohio, by 82 business credit executives. Membership has grown from 600 in 1896 to more than 20,000 today – making NACM one of the oldest and largest business organizations in the United States. NACM members are credit grantors in manufacturing, wholesaling, service industries and financial institutions; they are served by 54 autonomous affiliated state and regional associations throughout the country and by the national headquarters office.
About Safeworks LLC
We design, manufacture, distribute and service powered access, and safety solutions for the construction, restoration and maintenance industries to end-users and through equipment dealers. In all we do, we are committed to providing safe, productive and integrated solutions to meet our customers' requirements.
31% hält:
IDEA/eCredit to Provide Credit-Reporting Database
Electrical Wholesaling, Mar 1, 2006 Brought to you by:
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eCredit, Dedham, Mass., a provider of online solutions for credit and collections professionals, has entered into a strategic alliance with the Industry Data Exchange Association (IDEA), Rosslyn, Va. According to the terms of the agreement, eCredit will host, maintain and support an industry specific credit-reporting database for IDEA customers. In turn, IDEA will leverage its ability to create standards for credit data exchange, helping to drive down costs through the sharing of business information within a secure eCredit data network.
“Clearly, this partnership with eCredit will provide a high level of value for our customers,” said Tim Powers, chairman of IDEA; and president, CEO and chairman of Hubbell Inc. “By aligning with a value-added service provider that will host and maintain the receivables data, eCredit allows IDEA to remain focused on its core mission of creating standards and tools that enable commerce to flow more quickly: driving down cycle times, improving the order-to-cash process and ultimately bolstering customer satisfaction.”
eCredit and IDEA have also entered into a software referral agreement. This agreement will provide discounts to those IDEA customers in the electrical distribution and manufacturing industries who use credit and collections management software from eCredit.
Verbriefungen etablieren sich als neue Assetklasse
Mehrwert durch strukturierte Finanzierungen - Komplexität und Haftungsrisiken setzen Privatanlegern Schranken
Von Markus Frühauf, Frankfurt
Der Markt für Kreditverbriefungen wächst rasant: In den vergangenen zehn Jahren hat sich das Volumen von Credit Debt Obligations (CDOs) auf 445 Mrd. Dollar fast verzwölffacht...
14.03.2006, Nummer 51, Seite 2, 815 Worte
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Fortune
Invest in the Net boom without getting burned.
Wednesday April 19, 11:21 am ET
By Adam Lashinsky, FORTUNE senior writer
It's time to say hello to the new Net boom. And believe it or not, it's a boom you'll very likely want to invest in--even if you think (as we do) that Google at $400 a share is too scary to consider.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Internet, as you well know, didn't vanish along with all the over-hyped dot-coms of the late 90s. Today the Net is fulfilling many of the visions its wild-eyed prophets were preaching about just a few years ago. All the impossibly cool applications that seemed so elusive in the late 1990s -- Internet phone calls, (legal) downloadable music and movies, high-speed Web access on cellphones, online bill paying -- are a taken-for-granted part of daily life. (This is an excerpt from a story in the May 1, 2006 issue of FORTUNE. To read the complete story, click here or go to www.fortune.com.)
Driving this transformation is the extraordinary growth in the number of people with access to high-speed Internet connections. In 2000 just five million Americans had fast Internet access at home. At the end of 2005 that figure was 73 million, according to the Pew Internet and American Life Project.
Those speedy connections have supercharged the online experience, and people are doing exactly what you'd expect: spending vast amounts of time with their eyes glued to computer screens. More important, companies have finally figured out the long-sought key to "monetizing" those eyeballs, mainly by selling advertising, but also by charging for music and video downloads, not to mention for the access itself.
The not-so-surprising result is that the Internet industry isn't just back, it's better than it was before. Google isn't merely a ubiquitous (and free) research tool, though it certainly is that. Google, the online advertising company, generates billions of dollars in profits. (Yes, billions, and yes, profits.)
The iPod isn't just the hottest toy on the planet. It's a product that pumped $4.5 billion of sales into Apple's coffers last year -- and wouldn't be such a success if it weren't tied to Apple's digital jukebox, iTunes. The iTunes Music Store has sold more than a billion songs online in the past three years.
We know what you're thinking right about now: If there's a boom underway, then the Wall Street crowd must be fixing to sell us something. After all, we've been down this path before. But the investing landscape is very different this time.
In Boom 1.0, any company with buzz and a business plan rushed to go public long before it had any profits. Now standards for IPOs are higher. And with tough reporting requirements imposed by the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate-governance law, fewer companies are even attempting to go public.
Another crucial difference for investors: Today's Net stocks are far more reasonably priced than the highfliers of the dot-com era. For instance, at $400, Google trades for about 33 times Wall Street's estimates of 2007 earnings of $12 per share. That's rich but hardly stratospheric. Compare that with shares of Internet Capital Group, which at their peak in 2000 traded for well over 400 times the company's 2001 sales.
We set out to find the best ways for investors to participate in the new Net boom. Even if you have no intention of committing fresh money, understanding this landscape is an increasing imperative for every investor and every business. A company doesn't have to be a dot-com or a "Net stock" to be a beneficiary--or a casualty--of this boom.
We looked at five key areas: big tech, pure Net plays, infrastructure firms, broadband providers, and media conglomerates. In the end we identified seven stocks--as well as three mutual funds--that seem poised to profit.
by: civilwarimage
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 04/19/06 04:05 pm
Msg: 240481 of 240481
I don't have any stake in ICGE anymore, but I check in every few months just to see if Real Slim Boogie is still around. Man, after 4 years of bashing this "stinkubator," it has done nothing but go up. Boogie, you are truly sad and if this is all you have had to do that last few years, then maybe you need to find another stock to bash. Later loser!!!
Aber der Ami kritisiert zurecht all die schrägen Vögel, die es ja auch auf deutschen Boards massenweise gibt, die Euch die Kursgewinne seit dem Anstieg der Kurs von 3,40 Dollar auf das heutige Niveau versaubeutelt haben. Es ist eine kleine Minderheit von unanständigen Verzockern, die für 4280 Dollar gekauft und dann für 3,40 Dollar verkauft haben, und jetzt wahnsinnig werden, wenn Ihr Ex-Darling andere reich macht. 99% der Verlierer von damals akzeptieren Ihr Verzocken und versuchen nicht andere auch mit in die Scheisse zu reiten, indem sie ihnen eines der aussichtsreichsten Investments, völlig aus Luft gegriffen, mädig machen.
Spätestens am nächsten Dienstag sollte man auf jeden Fall drin sein.
Hier erfahren wir mehr - nächste Woche (Mittwoch)
http://www.freeborders.com/invite/index.htm
Ob auch schon über einen IPO von Freeborders? Vielleicht, aber das Meeting richtet sich wohl mehr an die Anwender.
FREEBORDERS IPO
by: t0b00t 04/20/06 09:25 am
Msg: 240482 of 240483
VERY SOON
Vor dem '"VERY SOON" sollte man schon in der Aktie sein. Und lasst Euch von der unsinnigen Kursbildung in Deutschland nicht verarschen. Mit Miniaufträgen zwischen einem und zehn Stück, die fast jedem Kursanstieg folgen, wird Euch hier permanent ein zu niedriger Kurs vorgegaukelt - Ziel: Umsätze niedrig halten, durch falsch gesetzte Limits. Eigentlich müsste der Marketmaker das längst gemerkt und die gezielte Kursmanipulation unterbunden haben. Jetzt führt es jeden manipulativen Pippi aus, den er nach dem Wertpapierhandelsgesetz nicht ausführen dürfte, während er in der Vergangenheit Aufträge in der Größenordnung von 200 Stück oft stundenlang, manchmal tagelang hängen ließ, um zu sammeln.
CreditTrade Joins T-Zero Platform
April 11, 2006 - London/New York - Signalling the continuing growth of T-Zero and its derivatives processing business, interdealer broker CreditTrade has announced it will join the firm's straight-through-processing (STP) service. CreditTrade is the latest addition to the platform and joins numerous banks, buyside participants and downstream operations service providers such as DTCC and GlobeOp that are connected to T-Zero. T-Zero focuses on providing "agnostic connectivity" and the benefits of accurate trade capture to the widest range of market participants including interdealer brokers, dealers, buyside firms, prime brokers and service providers.
"The addition of CreditTrade to the T-Zero service is a significant step for T-Zero and its bank clients," said T-Zero President Mark Beeston. "T-Zero can now offer banks the advantage of three important processing services in one easy-to-integrate package." These three services are the broker-neutral STP feeds provided by T-Zero on behalf of CreditTrade and Creditex as well as "T-Zero Affirm," the company's operational risk reducing affirmation service.
"Providing STP connectivity to our clients is a core part of our growth strategy," said CreditTrade founder and CEO Paul Ellis. "By providing connectivity via T-Zero, we are making it easier for our bank clients to prioritize their integration work and thus ensure that our execution platform is most efficiently connected from front to back."
Through T-Zero's STP service, banks receive an electronic feed of transactions they execute through CreditTrade. These include the highly liquid credit derivative indices (CDX) in which CreditTrade is a market leader in the North American market.
T-Zero has already integrated with numerous platforms, allowing market participants to leverage affirmed and hence accurate trade data in multiple downstream systems. T-Zero's "agnostic connectivity" model allows connection to both downstream operational systems such as DTCC and GlobeOp as well as offering broker-neutral connectivity enabling the straight-through-processing of trades to dealers on behalf of interdealer brokers. The wealth of electronic connectivity and messaging provided by T-Zero directly addresses the major inefficiencies in post-trade derivative processing highlighted by the New York Federal Reserve, the FSA and other regulators over the past year. Since being launched in August 2005, T-Zero's post-trade messaging and workflow system has been adopted by numerous major dealers and their clients.
T-Zero offers a uniquely flexible post-trade messaging and workflow system for the global credit derivatives market. The T-Zero platform enables communication and electronic affirmation of credit derivative trades on trade date, greatly reducing operational and settlement risks. A truly open communications platform, T-Zero connects market participants including major credit derivatives dealers, hedge funds, asset managers, prime brokers, fund administrators and documentation execution providers.
Visit www.tzero.com for more information.
CreditTrade provides transaction services: bringing together buyers and sellers of credit quickly and efficiently. Our product range covers the credit markets: derivatives, cash and structured trades. We have offices in London, Singapore and New York.
As a data and information service provider, CreditTrade offers a range of products including CreditTrade Benchmarks and Market Prices.
FREEBORDERS IPO news next week???
by: ayzy4 (50/M/Neverland)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 04/21/06 03:34 pm
Msg: 240489 of 240489
April 25, 2006
The Thought Leadership Series is organized by Freeborders exclusively for select clients and key strategic prospective relationships. The theme of this Thought Leadership Series Event is Outsourcing Strategies in China: Perceptions, Realities and Best Practices.
This workshop is designed for those looking to learn more about:
Why North American and European companies are looking to China for IT outsourcing
The unique advantages and challenges of outsourcing to China
Keys to operational success in China
Proposed Schedule:
3:00 pm – 3:10 pm Opening Address and Welcome Remarks
John Cestar, Co-CEO, Freeborders
3:10 pm – 3:25 pm Presentation
The Advantages of China vs. India
Speaker: Charlie Cortese, former Managing Director (IT), Lehman Brothers
3:25 pm – 3:40 pm Presentation
Speaker: Jim Hale, Founding Partner, FTVentures
3:40 pm – 4:10 pm Keynote
Speaker: Frances Karamouzis, Research Director, Gartner
4:10 pm – 5:00 pm Panel Discussion and Q&A
Keys to Operational Success in China ITO
Moderator: John Cestar, Co-CEO, Freeborders
Panelists: Karamouzis, Cortese, Kirchhoff
labert Scheiss, ohne sich auch nur eine Minute mit Internet Capital beschäftigt zu haben. Offensichtlich kann man solche Blödheiten bei Motley Fool bestellen.
Wie blöd dieser Gibbons ist und wie unformiert, könnt er an folgender Passage in seinem Text erkennen: "Be skeptical of analyst forecasts, whether it's a prediction that oil will hit $110 or that Internet Capital Group (NYSE: ICGE) will break $250. While Internet Capital Groups's price targets were trumpeted on TV before the crash, I haven't seen many apologies for the stock's subsequent performance. It's now trading at prices that are less than 1% of the targets set back then."
Dieser unformierte Blödmann meint mit den 250 Dollar bei Internet Capital eine Zeit, als der Höchstkurs bei 212 war. Der Kurs ging dann in der Tat auf 0,17 Dollar zurück - übrigens ein optimaler Zeitpunkt zum Einstieg. Was dieser uninformierte Blödmann, der vermutlich auf Bestellung des Shortseller arbeitet (was bei Motley Fool üblich zu sein scheint), noch nicht mitbekommen hat, ist, dass dann vor zwei Jahren ein 1:20 Split folgte. Der Höchstkurs wäre danach 2240 gewesen. Momemtan sind wir bei ca. 9 Dollar, in etwa ein zweihundertfünfzigstel des ehemaligen Höchstkurses - der von Verzockern von damals immer wieder thematisiert wird.
Was die nicht kapieren können ist, dass uns der Scheiss von gestern und ihr Verzocken schlicht und einfach nicht interessiert - sie sollten eben einen guten Psychiater aufsuchen. Die Leser hier interessiert, wenn sich die momentanen neun Dollar verdoppeln, die alten Geschichten von 4240 Dollar interessieren hier keine Sau. Was interessiert ist, das eine fast ausschließlich mit Eigenkaptial arbeitende Internetholding mit IPO-Perlen wie sonst wohl nirgends auf der Welt ein KGV von 5 hat und ein Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis von 1,5, während Google, Yahoo und Co. da im Schnitt bie 15 liegen.
Prepare for the Crash
By Richard Gibbons
April 21, 2006
The stock market crash following the Internet bubble destroyed portfolios and dreams. The Nasdaq alone fell from 5,000 to below 1,200 -- a nearly 80% decline. And that's only the average. Many stocks became essentially worthless. The tragedy wasn't in the numbers, though -- it was in the effect those losses had on people. Many investors were completely wiped out, losing money they'd been saving for years.
This really isn't the sort of pain you want to experience firsthand. That's why it makes sense for all investors to have a portfolio that is prepared for lean times. If a terrible day ever comes, you'll want to make sure you suffer only a flesh wound, not decapitation.
At Motley Fool Inside Value, we specialize in identifying stocks that not only outperform on the upside but also can survive a crash relatively unscathed.
Diversify now
Investors with technology-focused portfolios suffered the most a few years ago. There was almost nowhere in the sector to hide, with even the strongest companies suffering huge declines. Nokia (NYSE: NOK) fell 75%, CA (NYSE: CA) dropped 85%, and Kulicke and Soffa (Nasdaq: KLIC) plummeted 95%. Even now, none of these companies is even close to its pre-bubble highs. And again, these are some of the strongest companies in the sector.
The moral of the story isn't that technology companies are risky, but rather that diversification is a key component of a crash-resistant portfolio. While tech has been dreadful, the Vanguard REIT Index has more than doubled since 2000, and energy stocks have had outstanding returns recently. A diversified portfolio that included technology, REITs, and oil would have prospered. Furthermore, diversification ensures that you get the full benefit of your stock selection skills. The crash has shown that it's no condolence identifying the best-performing stocks in the worst-performing sector. Being the best of the losers doesn't make you a winner. But if you pick the best of each sector, you'll do quite well.
The Inside Value newsletter follows this diversification philosophy by recommending stocks in sectors ranging from technology to financial and with market caps from $1 billion to $300 billion. Even our selection strategies vary: We'll search for everything from undervalued growth stocks to cheap businesses poised for a rebound after suffering downturns or temporary bad news.
Buy cash
The problem with the companies that fell the most when the bubble burst was that they had neat ideas but didn't actually make any money. Even some of the most popular companies had this problem, such as Vignette (Nasdaq: VIGN). Before the crash, Vignette was drowning in red ink, having never had a profitable year. But investors assumed that it would be a great investment because of its products targeting the hot web applications niche. That was a costly mistake.
Unprofitable companies have little flexibility in bad business climates and tend to do poorly in bear markets. In a panic, investors aren't buying dreams. They're sticking with consistent cash machines, such as steady blue chips like Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) and McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP). It's no coincidence that these two companies show spectacular long-term returns, unfazed by the recent bear market. Businesses that earn gobs of cash don't have to raise money to survive. They can even take advantage of poor conditions to gain market share from weaker competitors. Such businesses tend to be crash resistant.
At Inside Value, every single pick is a business that makes piles of cash and has a significant competitive advantage. Consequently, these companies position themselves well for a bear market or a worst-case-scenario market crash.
Be skeptical
One of the best ways to guard your portfolio against a market crash is by maintaining a healthy level of skepticism. Wall Street isn't a charity. It's a bunch of businesses focused on making money for themselves. Helping small investors make a profit is Item No. 382 on the list of Wall Street priorities, immediately after ensuring that the new assistant knows exactly the right amount of Splenda to put in the morning coffee.
Be skeptical of analyst forecasts, whether it's a prediction that oil will hit $110 or that Internet Capital Group (NYSE: ICGE) will break $250. While Internet Capital Groups's price targets were trumpeted on TV before the crash, I haven't seen many apologies for the stock's subsequent performance. It's now trading at prices that are less than 1% of the targets set back then.
Rather than blindly trusting the analysts, make sure you understand the companies you're buying. Understand what risks each business faces and what competitive advantages will help the company overcome hurdles. Be particularly wary of high growth estimates, because analysts tend to be optimistic, and high growth is difficult to sustain. If the company fails to achieve overly ambitious growth estimates, the stock will be hammered. Finally, buy a stock only if, after conservative analysis, the company is trading at a bargain price. Stocks tend to return to their intrinsic value, so buying below that value provides significant protection in a crash.
We follow these techniques at Inside Value by performing our own research, starting with a thorough understanding of the company. As part of each recommendation, we not only describe what the company does, we also discuss the competitive landscape and possible risks. Finally, we recommend only stocks that are trading at dirt cheap prices. On average, our picks last year were recommended at prices equal to 72% of their intrinsic value. There is some variance, of course. At the time of this writing, several picks were trading at about 65% of their intrinsic value.
So while a crash will have some negative effects on any portfolio, a few carefully chosen strategies can help you avoid the worst and give you the opportunity for big gains along the way. If you're interested in reading our recommendations, we offer a free, no-risk 30-day trial. A trial gives you access to current and past issues, a discounted cash flow calculator for calculating the intrinsic value of any stock, dedicated discussion boards, and four special Inside Value reports. There is no obligation to subscribe, and you may just figure out a blueprint for a bear-resistant portfolio.
This article was originally published on Sept. 28, 2005. It has been updated.
Richard Gibbons is scared of stock market crashes, large flying objects, and eerie music. He does not have a position in any of the companies mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recent Articles by Richard Gibbons
04/21/2006 - Prepare for the Crash
04/17/2006 - The Low-Risk Wealth Solution
04/17/2006 - Dreadful Stocks to Avoid
04/17/2006 - The Foundation of a Superior Investment
04/10/2006 - Why You Should Be Terrified
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Wer sich über den Markt sachkundig machen will, kann das in deutscher Sprache meines Erachtens ganz gut mit Hilfe der folgenden Diplom-Arbeit tun:
http://home.knuut.de/gerhard.schweimayer/research/GeroldDplarbt.pdf
1. Die Bayerische Landesbank greift auf eine Datenbank von J.P. Morgan zurück, die aber nur der Informationsbeschaffung dient.
2. Man greift auf das System von Creditex, dem Konkurrenten von Credittrade zurück, das Informationen liefert und Geschäftsabschlüsse ermöglicht.
3. Man greift auf das System von Credittrade zrück, das Informationen liefert und Geschäftsabschlüsse ermöglicht.
Natürlich sind die Provisionen sehr niedrig, aber es werden ja auch, wie Ihr auf den Seiten 75 bis 77 erkennen könnt, gigantische Summen gehandelt. Credittrade ist inzwischen die umsatzstärktste nichtbörsennotierter Kernbeteiligungen und dürfte in 2006 bei Provisionserlösen zwischen 70 und 80 Millionen Dollar liegen - und der Markt wächst weiter gigantisch. Die Versicherungen, die in der vorstehenden Diplomarbeit angeführt werden, hatte ich bisher bei meiner Argumentation kaum auf der Rechnung. Um es kurz zu machen: Mindestens eine halbe Milliarde Dollar dürfte meines Erachtens Credittrade schon jetzt wert sein - und 27% davon logischerweise 135 Millionen. Nicht schlecht, Herr Specht.
http://www.ifk-cfs.de/English/content/...ngen/data/20060706Modern.htm
von Marco Kern
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1 Nutzer wurde vom Verfasser von der Diskussion ausgeschlossen: tradeconto