Der Untergang des Imperiums

Viele Punkte die ich hier aufgeführt habe, sind in diesem sehr guten Artikel
zusammengeführt.

So sieht es aus. Die Amis haben ein strukturelles und ein Nachfrage Problem und kein
Kredit Problem wie die US Schwachköpfe es verkaufen wollen(QE2.0).  Und so lange sie
daran nix ändern wollen oder können, werden sie immer weiter absteigen und die Lage
wird schlimmer werden.

"Expect it to get worse until the administration finally realizes that we have   both a structural and demand problem facing America, not a cyclical business   cycle and credit availability problem."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18122/innovation-america-has-a-structural-problem

It's a STRUCTURAL problem not a CYCLICAL problem!

It's a DEMAND problem not a SUPPLY problem!

I gave President Barrack Obama six months to roll-out his doomed Keynesian   policies, twelve months to discover they were flawed and eighteen months to   realize that the solution to America's problems must lie within a different   economic framework. I had hoped by the end of twenty-four months to see new   policies closer to an Austrian economic philosophy emerge. I was wrong.

Though, even the Wall Street Journal recently featured an article on the re-emergence   of the Austrian School of Economic philosophy, it would appear that President   Obama's administration still neither gets it, nor I am afraid ever will. Key   defections by his leading economic advisors, talk of the need for QE II and   a Stimulus II, and a political collapse in public confidence suggests a growing   awareness that Keynesian policies are not working, as many predicted they wouldn't.   Obama's exciting rhetoric of Hope and Change has left myself and the majority   of recent polled Americans disillusioned and disappointed. What I see the administration   failing to grasp is twofold:

I-America has a Structural problem, not a cyclical business cycle problem.   Though the cyclical business cycle was greatly worsened by the financial crisis,   I would argue that the structural problem facing the US is actually a contributor   to what caused the financial crisis.

II- America has a Credit demand problem, not a Credit supply problem. It isn't   that the banks won't lend, but rather that few can any longer afford or qualify   (on any reasonably and historically sound basis) to borrow.

  A STRUCTURAL PROBLEM

1) Trade Balance: Insufficient Export/Import Ratio

We are all painfully aware that the US has not produced sufficient exportable   product to support its standard of living for many years. Manufacturing in   the US has been in steady decline since the 1960's and the excess spending   during the Vietnam War. It has been 50 years since the US had a balanced budget (forget   Clinton's social security slight of hand). Over the last 10-15 years the   US has seriously compounded this problem by accelerating the de-industrializaton   of America without a strategy to replace salable export product. Corporate   industrial strategies of outsourcing, downsizing, and off-shoring were never   countered other than by an excess consumption splurge which fostered massive   real estate and retail expansion distortions.

Simply said: A US Service Economy that is based on 70% GDP consumer consumption     does not pay the bills!

For a brief period of time following the dotcom implosion, the US operated   as a mercantile "Financial Economy" that turned out to have been nothing more   than a historic illusion.

1999

2009

As the graphs below clearly show, since late 1999 with the surge in the adoption   of the internet, unemployment in the US has spiked. Clerical, manufacturing   and almost any job that could be further automated through networking advancements   were replaced.

2) Creative Destruction: Slowing Innovation Rate

In my recent paper INNOVATION:     What Made America Great is now Killing Her! , I described how the dotcom     bubble ushered in a change in America that is still reverberating through     the nation and around the globe. The Internet unleashed productivity opportunities     of unprecedented proportions in addition to new business models, new ways     of doing business and completely new and never before realized markets. Ten     years ago there was no such position as a Web Master; having a home PC was     primarily for word processing and creating spreadsheets; Apple made MACs     and ordering on-line was a quaint experiment for risk takers.

In 1997 prior to the 'go-go' Dotcom era unfolding, America's unemployment   was less than half of what it is today at 4.7%. At that time the US added 3   Million net jobs which reflected the creation of 33.4 Million new positions   while obsolescing or cutting 30.4 Million old positions. Job losses occurred   in old vocations such as typists, secretaries, filing clerks, switchboard operators   etc. Hired were new occupations such as C++ programmers, web masters, database   managers, network analysts, etc.

As our research chart above however illustrates, the additions have fallen   off precipitously while the job losses have stayed relatively flat. In 2009   job losses were 31M and only slightly larger than 1997, which would be expected   with further internet application development. New job creation however was   only 24.7M which is dramatically lower than the 33.4 in 1997.

Over 98% of all jobs created in America have traditionally been created by   companies with less then 500 employees. Recent research by the   Kaufman Foundation shows that in fact new start ups versus existing businesses   dominated the creation of new positions.

America's slowing ability to innovate which is reflected in published research   papers, patents issued and numbers of college graduates with advanced math   and science degrees has seriously fallen behind. I laid out the seriousness   of this problem in my early 2010 paper: America   - Innovate or Die!

It is more than a little disconcerting that after 13 Trillion in stimulus   measures we see business spending on capital investment STILL shrinking in   the US.

It can't be any clearer, the US has a structural problem. The administration   can not possibly fail to realize this. My sense is they just don't know what   to do about it.

  A DEMAND PROBLEM

1) Credit Available - Demand Flat.

According to the Federal     Reserve's latest quarterly survey of banks' lending practices recorded     during July 2010, "for the first time since 2006, banks are making commercial     and industrial loans more available to small firms, with about one-fifth     of large domestic banks having eased lending standards. This offset a net     tightening of standards by a small fraction of other banks." Also, for the     past six months, banks have continued easing lending to large and mid-sized     firms. What's more, banks also reported that they stopped cutting existing     lines of credit for commercial and industrial firms for the first time since     the Fed added the question in its survey in January 2009. As for consumer     loans, banks also reported easing standards for approving loans.

Credit is available, but demand remains flat.

Asked in the July     survey how demand for commercial and industrial loans has changed over     the past three months, 61% of banks responded "about the same," while 9%     said "moderately weaker." While it was good news that 30% responded "moderately     stronger," it's not exactly a surge in demand. Even in a slowly recovering     economy, the growing distaste for credit among our debt-weary public has     hampered the way for new purchases and investments.

This isn't all that is surprising. The latest economic indicators paint a   very exhausted consumer: In the years leading up to the financial crisis, he   bought too much house and too many cars. The consumer is in burn-out mode,   more focused on either saving or paying down credit card debt than buying more   appliances and gadgets.

The amount consumers owed on their credit cards during the three months ending   in June dropped to its lowest levels in more than eight years, indicating that   cardholders continue to pay off balances in the uncertain economy, according   to TransUnion's second   quarter credit card statistics.

The average combined debt for bank-issued credit cards fell by more than 13%   to $4,951 over the previous year. This represented the first three-month period   where credit card debt fell below $5,000 since the three months ending in March   2002. Meanwhile, personal savings have risen to 6.4% of after-tax incomes,   about three times higher than it was in 2007.

Perhaps what the Fed's quarterly report is really saying is this:

"There's a growing distaste for credit. The American consumer is the child     who ate too much and spoiled his dinner. And even if you hand him his favorite     meal on a silver platter, he's just not that hungry."

2) Shifting Demographics

Another obvious but seldom highlighted factor affecting demand is shifting   demographics. The Baby Boomer generation is no longer the consumption engine   it has been to the US economy.

We have a generation that, as has been predicted for some time, is reducing   its expenses but it may be even more dramatic than forecasted. With home housing   prices no longer being the wealth generation vehicle they had expected it to   be, stocks not delivering the returns they had been told to expect for the   'long term' investor and medical expenses climbing above their worst budgeted   targets, the baby boomers are being forced to cut back even further than the   expected demographics were warning about.

The demand for credit to finance new acquisitions is not the same priority   it was only a few years ago. Harry Dent's extensive demographic   research lays this out in indisputable detail.

All Federal Reserve and Government actions are about increasing credit supply.   None effectively address demand.

THE RESULT

40.8 Million Americans on Food Stamps

Employment at unprecedented lows

Expect it to get worse until the administration finally realizes that we have   both a structural and demand problem facing America, not a cyclical business   cycle and credit availability problem. I personally don't believe for a minute   that the Obama Administration haven't come to realize something is wrong. The   White House simply doesn't know what to do about it. They are doing the only   thing our Washington political machine knows what to do - throw money and credit   at the problem, which is precisely what got us into this problem in the first   place.

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einen Währungswechsel.....die brauchen so´n Taschenspieler-Trick wie die Umstellung von D-Mark in Euro, sonst werden die in Zukunft das Afrika von morgen werden, jedenfalls Global betrachtet, d.h. mit chinesischen Augen betrachtet. oder die werfen weiter bomben auf unschulge Menschen ab und versuchen die Weltherrschaft zu übernehmen. Die haben doch genug arme Menschen im Land, die für ein paar lumpige Dollar oder bischen crack alles machen was du von ihnen willst.

Ach was rede ich, viele Menschen sind verrückt nach diesem Papier, die gedruckt werden, alle wollen es haben und sind bereit für diese lumpigen Dollar sogar zu morden.

G20-Gipfel: Amerikas Abschied von der F�hrungsrolle - Meinung - Kommentare + Analysen - Politik - Handelsblatt.com

Nur wenige Tage nach der kalten Dusche bei den Wahlen zum US-Kongress muss Pr�sident Barack Obama auch beim G-20-Gipfel in S�dkorea eine erneute Niederlage hinnehmen. Dahinter steckt der Beginn einer Zeitenwende. Die globale Position der Supermacht USA erodiert. iEin Kommentar von Daniel Goffart/i. -  

http://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/...von-der-fuehrungsrolle;2691441

Dem gibt es nix mehr hinzuzufügen. Ausser vielleicht, ich habs je gleich gesagt...:-))
Wir sind schon mitten in der Phase, in der ein neues globales Machtgleichgewicht
austariert wird. Der große Verlierer bei diesem Prozess werden die USA sein.
Alles läuft nach "Plan"!

"Das sind neue Töne und sie zeigen eine Verschiebung im globalen  Machtgeflecht an. Die Verheerungen der Krise haben offenbar vor allem  die USA getroffen und nachhaltig geschwächt. Darin liegt auch der Grund  für die rasche Entzauberung von Barack Obama. Ernüchtert erkennen die  Amerikaner, dass die strukturellen Defizite der Supermacht jetzt offen  zutage treten. Der vergebliche Versuch Amerikas, sich in Seoul gegen die  G-20 durchzusetzen, markiert den Beginn einer Zeitenwende. Die Macht  der USA erodiert, während der Einfluss Chinas und anderer Staaten  steigt. Die Rolle als alleinige Führungsmacht der Welt wird Amerika nach  Seoul nicht mehr ohne Widerspruch spielen können."

Kürzungen beim Militär: Amerika spart am Supermacht-Status - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft

2,4 Billionen Dollar will die US-Regierung aus dem Budget streichen, bis zu ein Drittel davon beim Militär. Die Rüstungsindustrie wappnet sich schon zur Lobbyschlacht. Amerika sieht sich mit einer unbequemen Frage konfrontiert: Wie lange kann sich das Land seinen Rang als globale Supermacht noch leisten?

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,777889,00.html

mit einer Einschätzung...:-)

so jetzt gehts wie erwartet an die Militärausgaben und damit ist die supermacht keine
Supermacht mehr. Die geplanten Spaarmaßnahmen wird das land wieder in die
Rezession bringen. wenn ich mir die stark fallenden Kurse der letzten
Tage anschaue, wird das wohl langsam auch vom Markt einkalkuliert.

 

vor nem Jahr schrieb ich....

Pate100:   neuer Schuldenrekord

2

#227

na was denkt ihr wie lange die das so noch durchziehen können? Geplant ist ja, das die das in der Höhe die nähsten 4-5 Jahren weiter durchziehen wollen. Wenn man jetzt noch bedenkt das China
netto US Staatsschulden verkauft, kann man nur zu einen Schluss kommen. Hier wird es in den nächsten 1-2 Jahren noch gewaltig knallen! Die Amis werden den Haushalt konsolidieren müssen, was natürlich bedeutet das Steuern erhöht und Ausgaben gesenkt werden müssen. Was wiederum zu Folge hat, das die USA lange Rezession/Wirtschaftskriese leiden  werden.Das imperium wird gewaltig schrumpfen müssen, was einhergeht mit dem Verlust an Macht und Einfluss in der Welt. Und ganz zum schluss werden sie die Rüstungsausgaben radikal kürzen müssen und das verhasste Imperium ist dann Endgültig keins mehr.

Die scheiß Assis sind am Ende. Und ich piss auf sie und ihr beschissenes Systen und grenzenlose Arroganz!