Ökonomen streiten über Verteilungsfrage
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Ölpreis, der aber noch nicht fällt. Somit werden die Aktien der Förderer wahrscheinlich auch noch nicht fallen.
Außerdem könnten fallende Ölpreise den Gesamtmarkt stützen da sie dem Konsumenten mehr finanziellen Spielraum ermöglichen und die Unternehmen auf der Inputseite entlasten.
Bisher hat sich sein meinem Kauf nichts am Preis verändert:
http://www.ariva.de/forum/...ilungsfrage-472111?page=132#jump15209822
Permanent
Zuletzt hat es am Devisenmarkt ein mittleres Beben gegeben. Der Euro hat stark aufgewertet. Nun haben die führenden Industrienationen (G7) reagiert. In einer gemeinsamen Erklärung bekennen sie sich zu freien Wechselkursen: "Wir werden uns weiter eng zum Thema Devisenmärkte abstimmen und entsprechend zusammenarbeiten." Laut Weltbank besteht aber auch Handlungsbedarf im größeren Kreis der Industrie- und Schwellenländer (G20). » Handelsblatt G7 ächtet Wechselkursdumping, schreibt die » Neue Zürcher Zeitung. Die G7 gehen Hand in Hand und wollen einen Abwertungswettlauf der Währungen vermeiden, heißt es bei » Capital. Industriestaaten sagen Abwertungswettlauf den Kampf an, findet das » Manager Magazin. G7 versuchen den Währungsgeist zurück in die Flasche zu stecken, meint das » Wall Street Journal. Doch das Bekenntnis klingt hohl. Die Devisen spiegeln nicht den fairen Wert, kommentiert die » Welt. So ist etwa der Euro zum Dollar zehn Prozent überbewertet. Sich wie Japan unter den derzeitigen Umständen zu freien Wechselkursen zu bekennen, ist etwa so, als würde man ein Zootier vom Käfig ins Freigehege auswildern, kommentiert das » Handelsblatt. Auch dort bewegt es sich nur soweit, wie der Zoodirektor es zulässt. EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi hingegen sieht noch keine Anzeichen für einen internationalen Währungskrieg: "Dieser Begriff ist sehr, sehr übertrieben." » Reuters Ähnlich sieht das der ehemalige Präsident der Schweizer Nationalbank, Philipp Hildebrand: "Zentralbanken machen bloß, was ihre Pflicht ist, und was sie immer getan haben." » Financial Times
Heutige US Daten, insbesondere die Einzelhandelsdaten dürften von Interesse sein da eventuell Rückschlüsse durch die erhöhte PayRollTax auf das Konsumverhalten möglich sind. Positiv dürfte die Stabilisierung am Immomarkt sowie die gestiegenen Aktienkurse wirken, die anders als bei uns einen direkteren Einfluss auf das Konsumverhalten haben.
Permanent
12:00 AM Wednesday's economic calendar:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Import/Export Prices
8:30 Retail Sales
10:00 Business Inventories
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $24B, 10-Year Note Auction Comment!
Stocks More Overvalued Than 1929
When you overestimate earnings by 20% and the growth rate of earnings by two or three times it is easy to make stock prices look reasonable. Using measures of valuation that have stood the test of time shows stocks are overvalued and the best measure of valuation I have found says they are more overvalued than at the peak in 1929. However, in the short term momentum trumps valuation and even though stocks are priced high they could continue going up. When momentum exhausts itself stock prices will fall far below where they are now.
Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by prominently displaying the following sentence, including the hyperlink to Stratfor, at the beginning or end of the report.
"The Past, Present and Future of Russian Energy Strategy is republished with permission of Stratfor."
Über die Abhängigkeit Russlands vom Ölpreis und Gaspreis und wie sich die Abhängigkeit Europas langsam ändert Stratfor schreibt sehr gute Artikel
Europe's dependence on Russian energy is decreasing. The natural gas shortages experienced throughout Europe during the Russian-Ukrainian crises of 2006 and 2009 were a stark reminder of how vulnerable European nations were because of their dependence on Russian natural gas exports. Both unilaterally and through the European Union, European countries began developing strategies that would allow them to mitigate not only Europe's vulnerability to disputes between Moscow and intermediary transit states, but also its general dependence on energy from Russia.
The accelerated development of new and updated liquefied natural gas import facilities is one such effort. This will give certain countries -- Lithuania and Poland, most notably -- the ability to import natural gas from suppliers around the globe and bypass Russia's traditional lever: physical connectivity. This is particularly significant in light of the accelerated development of several unconventional natural gas plays in the world, particularly the shale reserves in the United States. The development of a pipeline project that would bring non-Russian Caspian natural gas to the European market is another attempt -- albeit less successful so far -- to decrease European dependence on Russian natural gas.
Additionally, a set of EU-wide policies, including the Third Energy Package, has begun giving EU member nations the political and legal tools to mitigate Gazprom's dominance in their respective natural gas supply chains. This common framework also allows European nations to present a more unified front in challenging certain business practices they believe are monopolistic -- the latest example being the EU Commission probe into Gazprom's pricing strategy in Central Europe. This, coupled with the EU-funded efforts to physically interconnect the natural gas grids of EU members in Central Europe, has made it increasingly difficult for Russia to use natural gas pricing as a foreign policy tool. This is a major change in the way Moscow has dealt with the region for the past decade, when it rewarded closer ties with Russia with low gas prices (as with Belarus) and increased rates for those who defied it (the Baltics).
Finally, Russia faces the simple yet grave possibility that the escalating financial and political crisis in Europe will continue to reduce the Continent's energy consumption, or at least preclude any growth in consumption in the next decade.
...
First, Russia is addressing the very damaging uncertainty surrounding its relationship with key transit states that traditionally allowed it to export energy to Europe. The construction of the Ust-Luga oil terminal on the Baltic Sea allows Russia to largely bypass the Belarus pipeline system and ship crude and oil products directly to its consumers. Similarly, the construction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea -- and eventually its southern counterpart, South Stream, through the Black Sea -- will allow Russian natural gas to bypass the Ukrainian and Belarusian transit systems if necessary.
....The Kremlin knows that its only hope of maintaining natural gas revenues in the face of a potential global shale boom is to lock its customers into price-competitive, long-term contracts. Moscow will continue showing that it can offer European consumers guaranteed high volumes and low-cost deliveries that producers relying on liquefied natural gas shipping for transport can seldom afford.
Finally, Russia is focusing significant attention and funds on developing connections to the growing East Asian energy markets, diversifying its export portfolio....
Read more: The Past, Present and Future of Russian Energy Strategy | Stratfor
*OBAMA CALLS FOR MINIMUM WAGE TO INCREASE TO $9/HOUR
*OBAMA SAYS `GENERATION'S TASK' IS TO BUILD STRONG MIDDLE CLASS
*OBAMA SAYS GOVERNMENT MUST WORK `ON BEHALF OF THE MANY' NOT FEW
*OBAMA SAYS PROPOSALS WILL NOT INCREASE DEFICIT BY `SINGLE DIME'
*OBAMA CALLS FOR `SMARTER GOVERNMENT' NOT `BIGGER GOVERNMENT'
*OBAMA ORDERS DHS TO DEVELOP REAL-TIME CYBERSECURITY RESPONSE
Enjoy...VIDEO
The yen whipsawed as the G-7 appeared at first yesterday to signal joint acceptance of the Japanese currency’s recent drop, only to see its members offer contradictory interpretations of the group’s stance. One G-7 official said there’s concern about excessive moves in the yen, while the U.K. said the group wasn’t singling out an individual country or exchange rate.
The confusion will keep the spotlight on the threat of a so-called international currency war and Japan’s push for monetary stimulus when finance ministers from the Group of 20 gather this weekend in Moscow. Tensions may also constrain the type of stimulus that the Bank of Japan considers under its incoming leadership team, according to Barclays Plc. ........
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/...or-exchange-rates-1-.html
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'Der Indikator für das ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima ist nach zwei Rückgängen in Folge wieder auf Aufwärtskurs. Während sich die Beurteilung der aktuellen Lage nur leicht verbessert hat, haben vor allem die deutlich positiveren Erwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate zum Anstieg des Indikators beigetragen. Nach dem Stillstand im vergangenen Halbjahr scheint die Weltkonjunktur wieder Tritt zu fassen.' HWS
Prognose: Spike voraus. Status: Long noch halten. Noch keine Shorts
He even doubled down in Kiplinger’s: “My Dow 17,000 projection may turn out to be too timid.” Now that’s real bull, a 20%-plus gain for 2013.
William Sherden decided to test the accuracy of leading forecasters over a multidecade period. His conclusion: Forecasters stink.
Farrell summarizes Sherden’s findings in 11 bullet points:
1. Economists’ predictions are no better than guesses
2. Government economists often worse than guesses
3. Long-term accuracy is impossible
4. Turning points cannot be predicted
5. No specific forecasters are better than the rest of pack
6. No forecaster was more expert with specific statistics
7. No one ideological orientation was better
8. Consensus forecasts do not improve accuracy
9. Psychological bias distorts forecasters and their forecasts
10. Increased sophistication does not improve accuracy
11. No improvement over the years
Its worth spending some time reviewing the entire article.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/...s-led-to-the-slaughter-2013-02-13
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/...t-predictions-still-terrible/
“We are at a possible inflection point right now with respect to the pricing of economic conditions in markets and then the actual conditions that are likely to occur.”
Global stocks have rallied 10 percent in the past six months as the U.S. housing market recovers, European leaders take steps to contain their debt crisis, and reports in China suggest economic growth is accelerating. This year will be a “game changer” as investors reallocate money after risks such as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis recede, Dalio said last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/...sh-moves-into-market.html
Emerging-market bonds rallied last year, with the JPMorgan Chase & Co. Emerging Markets Bond Index returning 19 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.....
The Russian ruble, the Mexican peso and real estate in the U.A.E. are among other investments Emirates NBD is suggesting to clients, McFarland said. ....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-13/...ng-stocks-over-bonds.html
.....bonds haven't done well lately. Since last July, the iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund has lost 2% of its value, while a version that invests in bonds with longer maturities has lost more than 7% !....These average annual losses might look small, but over time they add up fast. Someone investing in 10-year Treasuries from 1940 to 1979 lost more than 40% of their money in real terms. Those in 30-year bonds lost more than two-thirds of their capital after inflation. .....
Link s,Bloomberg oben