US Daten
aktuell:
Der US-amerikanische Help Wanted Index notiert im Oktober erwartungsgemäß bei 30. Der September-Wert ist von 30 auf 29 nach unten revidiert worden. Ein Jahr zuvor hatte der Index noch bei 37 notiert.
mfg J.B.
PS: nix für ungut, aber lassen wir die Kirche noch im Dorf!!
Das Entscheidende ist nicht die von Dir angeführte (winzige) Differenz zu Null, sondern die satte Differenz zu +2,6 %. Diese eine Index-Zahl ist natürlich nicht "die Wirtschaft". Dennoch kämen CPMI-Zahlen unter 50 - auf die Gesamtwirtschaft übertragen - einer Rezession gleich. Und das ist halt etwas anderes als 2,6 %-Goldilock-Wachstum.
aktuell:
Der US-amerikanische ISM Index notiert im November bei 49,5 %. Erwartet wurde der Index im Bereich 52,0 bis 52,5 %. Im Oktober hatte er noch bei 51,2 % notiert.
aktuell:
Die US-amerikanischen Bauausgaben sind im Oktober um 1,0 % zurückgegangen. Der aktuelle Rückgang ist der deutlichste seit September 2001. Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang im Bereich 0,3 bis 0,4 %. Im September waren die US Bauausgaben bereits um 0,8 % zurückgegangen. Der Vormonatswert wurde damit von zuvor veröffentlichten -0,3 % nach unten revidiert.
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Tenth District manufacturing activity growth eased slightly in November, and expectations for future factory activity remained lower than during the summer. Most price indexes in the survey edged down, though a sizeable share of firms continued to experience and expect rising prices. A summary of the November survey is attached to this press release. Results from past surveys and release dates for future surveys can be found at: http://www.kc.frb.org/mfgsurv/mfgmain.htm. For further information about the survey, contact Tim Todd, Public Affairs Department, (816) 881-2308. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri. |
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Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing Tenth District manufacturing activity growth eased slightly in November, and expectations for future factory activity remained lower than during the summer. Most price indexes in the survey edged down, though a sizeable share of firms continued to experience and expect rising prices. The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in November was 6, down from 9 in October but equal to 6 in September (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The decline in November was broad-based, as production decelerated at both durable- and nondurable-goods-producing plants. The year-over-year production index remained at 35 this month after rising slightly from 33 two months ago. The future production index experienced a moderate decline this month, falling from 20 to 15, a five-year low. Although sample sizes make it difficult to draw firm conclusions about individual states, the data available suggest that production remained well above year-ago levels in all district states. The majority of other month-over-month indexes also experienced a slight decline. The shipments index eased from 11 to 10 and there was a reduction in new orders, with the index falling from 11 to -1. The order backlog index fell for the second straight month to its lowest level in four years and the order export and supplier delivery time indexes decreased as well. In contrast, the employment index increased from 5 to 17 while inventory indexes remained relatively stable from last month. Most other year-over-year indexes decreased or remained largely unchanged in November. The new orders index and order backlog index recorded their lowest levels in over three years but were still well above zero. The supplier delivery time index was at a two-year low, and the order export index declined from 15 to 11. On the other hand, the capital expenditures index edged up after falling slightly for two straight months, and the shipments index rose from 34 to 38. The materials inventory index increased from 14 to 22, while the finished goods index fell to a two-year low. Most other indexes for future factory activity rebounded slightly in November. The future shipments index edged up from 20 to 24, and the future new orders index rose from 10 to 22 after recording a five-year low last month. In addition, future backlog, employment, and order export indexes all increased slightly after falling in the previous month. In contrast, the future capital spending index declined from 25 to 16, and both inventory indexes reached their lowest levels in over two years. The price indexes in the survey all edged down or remained relatively unchanged. The month-over-month finished goods price index decreased, while the raw materials price index increased only slightly from 25 to 27. The year-over-year price indexes both fell but still remain high by historical standards. The future finished goods price index eased from 34 to 28 and the future raw materials price index declined from 52 to 43, after rising slightly last month. |
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Agricultural
Prices
National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Released November 30, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of
Agriculture. For information on "Agricultural Prices" see
page 49, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
November Farm Prices Received Index Up 5 Points From Last Month
The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by
Farmers in November, at 121 percent, based on 1990-92=100,
increased 5 points (4.3 percent) from October. The Crop Index is
up 10 points (8.7 percent) but the Livestock Index decreased
1 point (0.9 percent). Producers received higher commodity prices
for corn, soybeans, eggs, and milk. Lower prices were received for
cattle, tomatoes, oranges, and hogs. The overall index is also
affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of
commodities producers sell. Increased average marketings of milk,
cattle, cotton, and oranges offset decreased marketings of
soybeans, potatoes, peanuts, and lettuce.
The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 9 points (8.0
percent) from November 2005. The Food Commodities Index, at 121,
increased 4 points (3.4 percent) from last month and 2 points
(1.7 percent) from November 2005.
Prices Paid Index Unchanged
The November Index of Prices Paid for Commodities and Services,
Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW) is 146 percent of the
1990-92 average. The index is unchanged from October but 4 points
above (2.8 percent) November 2005. Higher prices for feed grains,
feed supplements, feed concentrates, and complete feeds offset
lower prices in November for feeder cattle, mixed fertilizers, LP
gas, and herbicides.
Index Summary Table
--------------------------------------------------
: 2005 : 2006
Index :--------------------------------------------------
1990-92=100 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov
--------------------------------------------------
:
Prices Received : 111 112 116 121
:
Prices Paid : 144 142 146 146
:
Ratio 1/ : 77 79 79 83
--------------------------------------------------
1/ Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid by
farmers.
Prices Received by Farmers
The November All Farm Products Index is 121 percent of its 1990-92
base, up 4.3 percent from the October index and 8.0 percent above
the November 2005 index.
ALL CROPS: The November index is 125, up 8.7 percent from October
and 19 percent above November 2005. From October, index increases
for feed grains & hay, oil-bearing crops, and potatoes & dry beans
more than offset the index decreases for fruits & nuts and
commercial vegetables.
Food Grains: The November index, at 152, is 0.7 percent above the
previous month and 33 percent above a year ago. The November all
wheat price, at $4.62 per bushel, is up 3 cents from October and
$1.17 above November 2005.
Feed Grains & Hay: The November index is 137, up 18 percent from
last month and 65 percent above a year ago. The corn price, at
$3.12 per bushel, is up 58 cents from last month and $1.35 above
November 2005. The all hay price, at $106 per ton, is $1.00 below
October but up $14.30 from last November. Sorghum grain, at $5.88
per cwt, is 71 cents above October and $3.06 above November last
year.
Oil-Bearing Crops: The November index, at 108, is up 14 percent
from October and 9.1 percent higher than November 2005. The
soybean price, at $6.15 per bushel, increased 63 cents from October
and 53 cents from November 2005.
Cotton: The November index, at 77, is up 1.3 percent from October
but 3.8 percent below last year. The November price, at 46.6 cents
per pound, is up 0.5 cent from the previous month but 1.9 cents
below last November.
Potatoes & Dry Beans: The November index, at 110, is up
6.8 percent from last month and 4.8 percent above November 2005.
The all potato price, at $6.43 per cwt, is up 46 cents from October
and 17 cents above last November. The all dry bean price, at
$21.00 per cwt, is up $1.30 from the previous month and $3.00 above
November 2005.
Fruits & Nuts: The November index, at 165, is down 7.3 percent
from October but 15 percent higher than a year ago. Price
decreases for oranges, apples, and grapefruit more than offset
price increases for grapes and strawberries.
Commercial Vegetables: The November index, at 124, is down
3.9 percent from last month but 5.1 percent above November 2005.
Price decreases during November for tomatoes and snap beans more
than offset higher prices for lettuce, cauliflower, and broccoli.
LIVESTOCK & PRODUCTS: The November index, at 116, is 0.9 percent
below last month and down 4.1 percent from November 2005. Compared
with a year ago, prices are lower for beef cattle, milk, calves,
and broilers but higher for eggs, turkeys, and hogs.
Meat Animals: The November index, at 112, is down 5.1 percent from
last month and 6.7 percent lower than last year. The November hog
price, at $44.50 per cwt, is down $2.00 from October but $1.00
higher than a year ago. The November beef cattle price of $84.40
per cwt is down $4.10 from last month and $6.40 lower than
November 2005.
Dairy Products: The November index, at 106, is up 2.9 percent from
a month ago but 8.6 percent lower than November last year. The
November all milk price of $13.80 per cwt is up 30 cents from last
month but down $1.30 from November 2005. The fluid grade milk
price is up 30 cents and the manufacturing grade milk price is up
40 cents from the previous month.
Poultry & Eggs: The November index, at 133, is up 7.3 percent from
October and 4.7 percent above a year ago. November market egg
prices, at 67.5 cents per dozen, increased 29.3 cents from October
and 19.1 cents from November 2005. The November broiler price, at
40.0 cents per pound, is unchanged from October but 2.0 cents below
a year ago. The November turkey price, at 67.1 cents per pound, is
up 3.7 cents from the previous month and up 12.6 cents from a year
earlier.
aktuell:
Der US-amerikanische Index zu den anstehenden Hausverkäufen ist im Oktober um 1,7 % auf 107,2 zurückgegangen. Im September hatte der Index noch bei 109,1 notiert.
05.12.2006 - 14:04
Die US-Filialumsätze sind in der Woche zum 2. Dezember gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres um 3,1 Prozent gestiegen. Dies meldete heute das International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). Gegenüber der Vorwoche ist jedoch ein Rückgang von 2,6 Prozent zu registrieren.
Laut ICSC-Chefökonom Mike Niemira haben die Konsumenten ihre Aktivitäten reduziert, was für dieses Jahr mit geringer als erwarteten Ausgaben im Bereich der Weihnachtsgeschäftssaison einhergeht. Bislang hätten gerade 25 Prozent der Haushalte mindestens 50 Prozent ihrer gesamten Weihnachtsausgaben getätigt. Dies entspricht gegenüber der Vergleichszahl des Vorjahres bzw dem vorangegangenen Jahr einem Rückgang von gut 32 Prozent. Es habe den Anschein, dass die Konsumenten ihre geplanten Ausgaben im Vergleich zu früheren Zeiten in einem höheren Maß aufschieben, was jedoch mit Potential für die Spätphase der Weihnachtsgeschäftssaison verbunden ist.
Das ICSC rechnet für Dezember mit einem Jahreserlöszuwachs von 2,5-3 Prozent.
© BörseGo - http://www.boerse-go.de
Announced Layoffs, Level
Actual 76,733
Previous 69,177
Highlights
Layoffs edged higher in November, results of the monthly Challenger report that will not raise estimates for Friday's November employment data. Layoffs announcements rose to 76,733 vs. 69,177 in October. November's total is below 99,279 in November last year but lay-off announcements ran higher in 2005. Challenger's data are not seasonally adjusted so it's important to look at year-on-year comparisons especially given strong seasonal swings in categories like retail and autos.
Hiring intentions rose to 63,233 in November vs. 13,012 in October, but the November-December holidays are a big hiring season. Hiring intentions in November 2005 were stronger at 96,282. The report said seasonal hiring at shipper UPS boosted the latest total. But the report offered no commentary on the retail sector, where Challenger's data are sparse. Strength of hiring in the retail sector offers a signal on the strength of retailer expectations for holiday sales. The indicator run-up to Friday's employment report is busy with ADP's data out tomorrow morning.
Trends
The Challenger Job-Cut Report could serve as a leading indicator for new jobless claims. However, not all layoff announcements result in near term job losses. For instance, companies often announce layoffs that will result in job losses but not immediately. Companies would simply not replace workers who quit
aktuell:
Die Arbeitsproduktivität (im Nonfarm Business) ist im dritten Quartal saisonbereinigt und annualisiert um 0,2 % gestiegen. Damit wurde die vorläufige Veröffentlichung von +/-0,0 % nach oben revidiert. Erwartet wurde hingegen ein Anstieg um 0,5 bis 0,6 %
aktuell:
Die Lohnstückkosten (im Nonfarm Business) sind saisonbereinigt zum Vorquartal um 2,3 % gestiegen. Die vorläufige Veröffentlichung mit 3.8 % wurde damit deutlich nach unten revidiert.
aktuell:
Die US-amerikanischen Industrieaufträge sind im Oktober um 4,7 % zurückgegangen. Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang im Bereich 4,0 bis 4,5 %
aktuell:
Der ISM Dienstleistungsindex für November notiert bei 58,9 %. Erwartet wurde der ISM Service-Index im Bereich 55,0 bis 55,5 % nach zuvor 57,1 %.
...wenn der Markt nicht nach Oben wollte.
aktuell:
Im November ist die Zahl der privat Beschäftigten außerhalb der Landwirtschaft in den USA um 158.000 gestiegen. Gerechnet worden war hingegen mit einem Anstieg um 120.000. Im Vormonat hatte das Plus noch bei 128.000 gelegen. Den Dreimonatsdurchschnitt gibt der ADP National Employment Report mit 104.000 an.
aktuell:
Die US-amerikanischen Rohölvorräte (Crude Oil Inventories) sind in der vorangegangenen Woche um 1,1 Mio. Barrel gesunken, nach zuvor -300.000 Barrel.
Die Benzinvorräte (Gasoline Inventories) haben sich in den USA im Wochenvergleich ebenfalls um 1,1 Mio. Barrel verringert, nach zuletzt Minus 600.000 Barrel.
Die US Vorräte an Destillaten (Distillate Inventories), die auch das Heizöl beinhalten, sind gegenüber der Vorwoche um 400.000 Barrel geschrumpft, nach zuvor -1,0 Mio. Barrel.
07.12.2006 - 13:27
Der Monster-Beschäftigungs-Index zur Stellenentwicklung in den USA ist im November gegenüber dem Vormonat um 3 Punkte auf 175 Zähler gestiegen. Dies stellt den höchsten Stand seit Einführung des Index durch den Online-Personaldienstleister im Oktober 2003 dar. Im November 2005 lag dessen Niveau bei 149 Punkten.
Der Rekordstand reflektiere die steigende Zahl an Arbeitskräften im Zusammenhang mit der Weihnachtsgeschäftssaison und üblichen Einstellungen zu Jahresende. Der Anstieg des Indikators sei teilweise im Zusammenhang mit der gestiegenen Online-Personal-Rekrutierung in Industrien und Segmenten in Beziehung zur Weihnachtsgeschäftssaison wie Transportwesen und Warenhäusern zu sehen.
Die Zunahme des Index im November 2006 gegenüber der Vergleichsperiode 2005 um 17,4 Prozent stelle jedoch die geringste Steigerungsrate seit Beginn der entsprechenden Erhebungen dar. Jene Entwicklung sei im Einklang mit anderen Indikatoren zu sehen, die während der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2006 auf eine umfassende Verlangsamung der wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten in den USA hinweisen.
Zugleich seien gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres Anzeichen von Stärke zu erkennen, zumal der November 2005 als Folge der Schäden durch Hurrikan "Katrina" aufgrund der Neueinstellungen im Zusammenhang mit den Bemühungen zum Wiederaufbau ein verzerrtes Bild von sich gegeben hat.
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zu den US-amerikanischen Erstanträgen auf Arbeitslosenhilfe (Initial Jobless Claims) für die Vorwoche
aktuell:
Die Zahl der US-amerikanischen Erstanträge ist in der letzten Woche auf 324.000 zurückgegangen. Erwartet wurden 320.000 bis 325.000 neue Anträge nach zuvor 358.000 (revidiert von 357.000).
Veröffentlichung des wöchentlichen Erdgasberichts der Energy Information Administration (EIA) zur US Lagerhaltung
aktuell:
Die US-amerikanischen Erdgasvorräte (Nat Gas Inventories) sind in der vorangegangenen Woche um 11 Bcf auf 3.406 Bcf zurückgegangen. In der vorangegangenen Woche waren die Bestände um 32 Bcf geschrumft, im Vorjahr hatten sie bei 3.174 Bcf gelegen.
aktuell:
Die US-amerikanischen Verbraucherkredite haben sich im Oktober um 1,2 Mrd. US-Dollar verringert. Erwartet wurde hingegen ein Anstieg um 4,5 bis 9,0 Mrd. US-Dollar. Zuvor war ein Anstieg um rund 3,9 Mrd. US-Dollar zu verzeichnen gewesen. Damit wurde der September-Wert von -1,2 Mrd. US-Dollar nach oben revidiert.
So las sich das letzten Monat:
Die Verbraucherkredite haben sich um 1,2 Mrd. US-Dollar verringert. Erwartet wurde hingegen ein Anstieg um 5,0 bis 5,5 Mrd. US-Dollar nach zuvor +9,1 Mrd. US-Dollar (revidiert von +5,0 Mrd.).
Ausserdem schreien die Börsen eh nach einer Verschnaufpause!!
mfg J.B.
Juni 14,1 Mrd
Juli 8,3 Mrd
August 9,1 Mrd
Sept 3,9 Mrd
Die gestiegenen Zinsen und die gestiegenden Raten für Hauskredite machen sich jetzt bemerkbar und werden den US-Konsumenten das Geld ausgeben für die nächsten Jahre erschweren.
The 2006 holiday shopping season kicked off with mixed results for November as U.S. chain store sales rose by 2.1 percent for the month, according to ICSC’s index. Following their shopping patterns over the past few months, consumers continued to shift their spending to luxury and department stores.
Luxury chain store sales grew 5.1 percent for the month. Department chain stores continued to post healthy results, with a 4.6 percent increase in November. Other sectors that posted an increase were wholesale clubs (3.5 percent), discount stores (1 percent), and apparel chain stores (0.2 percent).
“Retailers cited three reasons for the results: tough comparison with hurricane-induced replacement demand in the South, pockets of mild weather that curbed seasonal apparel demand and lower gasoline prices (relative to last year) that cut into wholesale clubs which report gasoline sales,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research.
Though the 'traditional' kick-off to the holiday shopping season got underway over Thanksgiving weekend and provided some encouragement throughout the industry, November's softness must now be made up over the next month, Niemira says. He said he expects same-store sales to increase by 2.5 to 3 percent, on a year-over-year basis, for the month of December. For the holiday season, Niemira expects overall same-store sales to increase by 2.5 to 3 percent for November and December combined, due to the possibility of some lingering softness in demand in some sectors.