Sehen wir den Anfang einer weltweiten Rezession?
Es gibt dort -mir ist zumindest keiner bekannt- keine Dauerpessimisten oder Schwarzseher. Es handelt sich um User die Versuchen die Ungleichgewichte die sich in der Weltwirtschaft aufgebaut haben zu analysieren. Eines der größten Probleme ist der dauerhafte Überkonsum der US Verbraucher, die sich durch die Beleihung ihrer im Preis stark gestiegenen Immobilien ständig neue Recourcen zur Befriedigung der unendlichen Konsumgier geschaffen haben.
Die Sparquote ist dabei sogar in den negativen Bereich gefallen. Angefeuert wurde die Orgie von der FED mir ihrer lockeren Geldpolitik. Weitere Zentralbanken -hier allen voran die BOJ mit ihrer Nullzinspolitik- haben kräftig Schützenhilfe geleistet.
Das Erkennen solcher fundamentalwirtschaftlichen Ungleichgewichte macht allerdings keinen Menschen zum Pessimisten. Ich würde mich als Realisten einschätzen. Sicher Aktien gegenüber, bin ich seit einiger Zeit, pessimistisch eingestellt. Es gibt aber eben auch Anlageklassen die ich sehr wohl optimistisch sehe.
Im Übrigen glaube ich, hier für die überwiegende Mehrheit zu sprechen, wenn ich sage wir sind Optimisten.
Gruß
Permanent
Gruß
Permanent
Permanent
Gold, Silver Gain on Speculation Fed Cut Will Weaken Dollar
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver prices rose on expectations the Federal Reserve's cut in U.S. interest rates will weaken the dollar and boost the appeal of precious metals as alternative investments.
Gold yesterday rose to the highest since February 1980 after the Fed lowered its benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point, more than economists forecast, to 4.75 percent. The dollar fell to an all-time low against the euro after the announcement. Five of the past six bear markets for the dollar have boosted gold prices.
``The dollar is the most important factor driving gold prices,'' said Matt Zeman, a trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. ``Look for the dollar to make new lows and gold to continue higher.''
Gold futures for December delivery rose $5.80, or 0.8 percent, to $729.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. After the Fed announcement, the metal reached $735.50, the highest for a most-active contract since Feb. 11, 1980. Gold has climbed 14 percent this year.
Silver futures for December delivery jumped 18 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $13.105 an ounce. The metal is up 1.3 percent this year.
The Fed's first interest-rate cut since 2003 sparked a plunge in the dollar. The euro reached a record $1.3988 yesterday. Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, soared to a record 576 metric tons.
`Potential' Sell-Off
Policy makers said the decision to cut the overnight lending rate was based on the ``potential'' that a sell-off in credit markets will slow economic growth. A Commerce Department report today showed U.S. building permits in August dropped to the lowest since 1995.
``Gold and gold shares are the traditional refuges in times of financial trauma,'' J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. analysts said yesterday in a note. ``We continue to feel most portfolios should contain some gold.''
Historical price charts show gold's gains may be limited after four straight weekly gains. The 14-day relative strength index for gold futures has been above 70 since Sept. 6, a signal that prices may be headed lower. Today, the index rose to 78.
``Gold is going to work for a few weeks around these levels,'' said Zeman of LaSalle. ``Gold can't make a real sustainable run higher without consolidating.''
Gold futures reached $873 an ounce, the highest ever, in January 1980.
To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: September 19, 2007 14:52 EDT
Inflation: Not a Monetary Phenomenon After All? | ||||
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Below is an extract from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 13th September 2007.
The weekly comments of Dr. John Hussman regularly contain great insights into the world of stock market investing and should, in our opinion, be read by anyone wanting to improve his/her understanding of what drives the stock market. However, almost everything Dr. Hussman writes on the topic of inflation is flawed.
Take his latest commentary, for instance. In this commentary he makes some valid points, such as that the quantity of reserves held by banks no longer determines the amount of lending conducted by the banking system and that the Fed follows, rather than leads, the market at interest-rate turning points. But his argument that "inflation is ultimately always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon" misses the mark.
According to Dr. Hussman: "Inflation occurs when fiscal policy creates more government liabilities (either money or debt) than people are willing to hold at existing prices." And: "...if the government produces a lot of liabilities in an unproductive economy (as the Germans did in the 1920's, paying striking workers in the Ruhr even though they weren't producing anything), you get high inflation. It would not have mattered had Germany paid workers with bonds instead of money -- bond prices would have declined, raising interest rates, lowering the willingness of people to hold non-interest-bearing currency, and causing a hyperinflation nonetheless. Inflation is first a fiscal phenomenon, tempered by economic activity and credit conditions, and affected only at the margin by "monetary policy"."
Now, Dr. Hussman defines inflation as a rise in the general price level, which is a problem for a start and probably goes a long way towards explaining why most of what he writes on the topic is wrong (if you begin with an incorrect premise and then apply perfect logic then you will certainly arrive at an incorrect conclusion). Inflation is actually an increase in the supply of money, but to avoid writing at cross-purposes we will temporarily adopt his incorrect definition.
Dr. Hussman's assertion, then, is that if the government spends way beyond its means then the result will be inflation (a fall in the purchasing power of the currency) regardless of whether the deficit spending is financed in a way that leads to an increase in the money supply. Furthermore, by stating that inflation is always a fiscal phenomenon he is, in effect, stating that a rise in the supply of money will not cause the currency to lose purchasing power unless it stems from an increase in government deficit-spending.
While we agree that the main contributor to inflation over the long-term is the growth and associated deficit-spending of government, logic and empirical evidence tell us that a) declines in the purchasing power of the currency can only occur when the supply of the currency increases relative to demand for the currency, and b) large and sustained increases in currency supply inevitably lead to declines in the currency's purchasing power. The logical argument is based on the axiom that the law of supply and demand applies to money just like it applies to everything else in the economic world (the price (purchasing power) of money will fall if, and only if, the supply of money increases relative to the demand for money).
Importantly, this logical argument is supported by the historical record. For example, due to increases in money supply being severely limited by virtue of the dollar being a claim on a fixed weight of gold, the dollar did not lose any of its purchasing power during the hundred-year period prior to the establishment of the Fed; but during the 94-year period since the establishment of the Fed the US Dollar has lost more than 95% of its purchasing power in parallel with a massive increase in dollar supply. A substantial chunk of the increase in the supply of dollars is linked to the expansion of the US Government, but it was the increase in the money supply and not the expansion of the government per se that caused the loss of purchasing power. We do acknowledge, though, that the dollar's purchasing power would have held-up better if the increase in its supply had been mostly due to private-sector borrowing (perhaps it would have 'only' lost 80% of its value under this situation as opposed to the 95% it actually lost). The reason is that the private sector would have used the new money more efficiently, meaning that there would have been larger gains in productivity to offset the effects of the money-supply's increase.
Another historical example of how it's the increase in the supply of money and not the increase in the supply of government bonds that ultimately determines the currency's purchasing power was provided by Japan's post-bubble experience. During the 1990s and the first few years of this decade the Japanese Government issued bonds at a much faster pace than the government of any other developed country, and yet the Yen held its purchasing power better than any other currency. This was almost certainly because the supply of Yen increased at a very slow pace.
Japan's experience supports our view that a large increase in government indebtedness will NOT cause the currency to lose purchasing power UNLESS the debt is monetised, that is, unless the issuing of the debt results in the large-scale creation of money 'out of thin air'. Of course, large increases in government debt almost always lead to large increases in the supply of money, which is why Dr. Hussman observes an inverse relationship between the level of government indebtedness and the purchasing power of the currency.
But what about Dr. Hussman's contention that if the German Government had issued bonds in the early 1920s instead of printing money then the end result would still have been hyperinflation? Well, the end result would have been hyperinflation if the government had printed the money it needed to make the interest payments on the bonds. However, had the government chosen not to default indirectly via the printing press then it would have been forced to default directly on its obligations; and in this case the bonds would have become worthless, but the money in which the bonds were denominated would have held its purchasing power.
In summary, there is a huge pile of wrongheaded commentary on the inflation/deflation topic and most of it is based, one way or another, on the falsehood that the laws of supply and demand do not apply to money. Dr. Hussman has contributed to this pile by arguing that the primary cause of falling purchasing power is the increase in the supply of government bonds and not the (usually associated) increase in the supply of money. When people argue that a rising oil price will ripple through the economy and put upward pressure on the general price level they are also guilty of adding to the pile. This is because they are failing to point out that a price rise in one part of the economy (the oil sector, in this case) will have to be offset by price declines elsewhere unless there is an increase in money supply. And then there are the people who argue that under certain circumstances the central bank will be unable to prevent deflation from occurring, regardless of how much money it prints. These people are contributors to the pile as well because they are, in effect, saying that the price of a commodity (money, in this case) can be independent of its supply.
Steve Saville
Verfasst von Dr. Marc Faber am 18.09.2007 um 9:39 Uhr
Freikaufen als einzige Option für die Fed!Meiner Ansicht nach hat die Fed, wenn sie nicht bereit ist, eine zerstörerische Rezession zu akzeptieren, keine andere Wahl, als das System frei zu kaufen, egal wie unangenehm die Konsequenzen für die Zukunft auch sein mögen. Das Problem ist, dass die Fed in den letzten Jahren das Wachstum des Kreditvolumens niemals kontrolliert hat und dass dieses Monster nun mit immer mehr Geld und weiterem Wachstum der Kredite gefüttert werden muss.
Es ist zwar unwahrscheinlich, dass "schnelles Geld" die Immobilienbranche retten wird, die in realen Werten (inflationsbereinigt) vermutlich weiter deflationieren wird. Während sich die globale Anlagen-Blase weiter verschlimmert (immer weniger Anlagen erreichen neue Hochs) ist es aber möglich, dass der eine oder andere Markt immer noch ein neues Hoch erreicht.
Letztendlich ist der Shanghai-Aktienmarkt bisher von der Kreditkrise in den Hypotheken noch nicht in Mitleidenschaft gezogen worden. Der Shanghai-Aktienindex handelt nun 55% über seiner 200-Tages-Linie (ist also extrem überkauft) und damit über dem vierfachen seines Tiefs vom Juni 2005.
Mein Punkt ist folgender: Wenn die aufstrebenden Märkte irgendwann in den nächsten 9 Monaten zusammenbrechen, wird der US-amerikanische Aktienmarkt die ausländischen Märkte wahrscheinlich outperformen. Da ich vermute, dass diese Einsicht auch an großen, weltweiten Geld-Managern nicht vorübergegangen ist, werden diese vermutlich in Zukunft ihr Engagement in US-amerikanischen Aktien erhöhen. Insbesondere dann, wenn der US-Dollar weiter schwächer wird.
Widerwillig gegen den Bärenmarkt
Daher bin ich nicht gewillt, in US-Aktien große Short-Positionen einzugehen, obwohl ich gegenüber der US-Wirtschaft und ihrem Finanzmarkt negativ eingestellt bin. Ich habe schon einmal erwähnt, dass die Hochs der US-Aktienmärkte wahrscheinlich nicht für den Rest des Jahres andauern werden, während ich gerade eben eine "relativ" positive Position dazu bezogen habe.
Wenn Sie also das Umfeld dieser Investments betrachten, kann ich mich nicht dafür begeistern, an der andauernden Schlacht zwischen Fundamentaldaten, die meiner Meinung nach ein Desaster darstellen, und der Manipulation durch die Fed (und möglicherweise bis zu einem gewissen Grad auch die Regierung), die die US-amerikanischen Anlagepreise weiter hochtreiben oder zumindest vor einem Rückgang schützen können, teilzunehmen. In militärischen Schlachten haben sogar die Sieger einen hohen Anteil an Opfern.
Gold für die Optimisten
Daher denke ich, dass es in der oben beschriebenen Schlacht zwischen Optimisten, die in Kürze neue Hochs erwarten, und den Pessimisten, die noch vor Ende Oktober ein neues Tief erwarten, am Besten sein wird, nur kleine Positionen einzugehen und geduldig auf bessere Einstiegs-Zeitpunkte sowohl für Long- als auch Short-Positionen zu warten.
Wenn nun einige meiner Leser sehr optimistisch sind, empfehle ich ihnen, Gold und Goldaktien zu kaufen, anstatt in den S&P500 oder andere US-Indizes zu investieren.
Gleichzeitig würde ich den Finanz-Sektor weiterhin meiden, der in seiner Kreditstruktur der anfälligste Sektor ist. Nur eine massive Liquiditätsspritze könnte eine weitere Aufwärts-Bewegung der globalen Anlagen-Blase initiieren, was aber nichts anderes als eine weitere große Aushöhlung der Papier-Währungen bedeuten würde.
© Dr. Marc Faber
Bernanke: Rate Cuts Aimed At Protecting EconomyBy CNBC.comCNBC.com| 20 Sep 2007 | 09:21 AM ET
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed's recent interest-rate cut was aimed at forestalling some of the adverse effects on the economy from recent financial stress.
In prepared remarks for a Congressional hearing beginning at 10 am New York time, Bernanke also said the Fed is committed to preventing new lending problems while preserving responsible subprime lending. He added that mortgage rate resets may lead to a further rise in delinquencies, but that markets tend to self correct.
CNBC.com will carry Bernanke's testimony live.
Some traders expect Bernanke's speech to signal a further rate cut, causing the dollar to sink to a record low against the euro, breaking a $1.40 psychological level before his testimony.
Bernanke also warned that raising the ceiling on the size of loans mortgage finance enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy could undermine market discipline.
Bernanke said that if Congress were to raise the so-called conforming loan limit imposed on the two government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, from its current $417,000, lawmakers
should move swiftly enough to make sure the move serves its intended purpose of easing current strains in the mortgage market.
"The perception, however inaccurate, that the GSEs are fully government-backed implies that investors have few incentives in their role as counterparties or creditors to act to constrain GSE risk-taking," Bernanke said in testimony obtained by Reuters that was prepared for delivery to the House Financial Services Committee.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will also testify at the hearing and is signaling that the Bush administration would consider allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to temporarily buy, bundle and sell as securities loans exceeding $417,000.
The idea, which represents a policy change for the administration, is portrayed as a way to inject liquidity into the stretched mortgage market.
Paulson said the change involving jumbo loans could occur only in tandem with tighter oversight of the two government-sponsored mortgage companies, according to a person familiar with remarks the secretary was to deliver to a House hearing Thursday.
The person spoke on condition of anonymity because Paulson's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee had not been made public.
Paulson was to tell lawmakers "there's little question" that allowing the companies to buy the large loan "would give a short-term lift" to the mortgage market.
At the same time, he was expected to urge passage of legislation to tighten federal oversight of the companies. "It would be unreasonable and irresponsible" to expand their business "without addressing the fundamental problems of their regulatory structure," the Treasury chief planned to say.
© 2007 CNBC.com
Angst vor Wachstumsdelle
Volkswirte rechnen mit weiterem Euro-Kursanstieg
Von Norbert Häring
Angefacht von der Erwartung eines schwächeren Wachstums und niedrigerer Zinsen in den USA ist der Kurs des Euros am Donnerstag erstmals über die Marke von 1,40 Dollar geklettert. Volkswirte befürchten, dass die Euro-Stärke und die Auswirkungen der vom Immobiliensektor ausgehenden Krise des Finanzsektors das Wirtschaftswachstum im Euro-Raum empfindlich beeinträchtigen.
FRANKFURT. US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke nährte diese Sorgen bei einem Auftritt vor dem Kongress noch. Der Konjunkturausblick werde wegen der Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten immer unsicherer. Die US-Zentralbank werde die Situation genau beobachten und notfalls handeln, um Preisstabilität und Wachstum zu fördern. Damit deutete Bernanke die Bereitschaft an, der kräftigen Zinssenkung vom Dienstag weitere Schritte folgen zu lassen.
Die Investmentbank Lehman Brothers senkte ihre Wachstumsprognose für den Euro-Raum im kommenden Jahr um einen halben Punkt auf nur noch 1,8 Prozent. Die Volkswirte begründeten dies damit, dass der teure Euro die Exportwirtschaft schwäche. Die Probleme vieler Banken bei der Refinanzierung würden Kredite für die Wirtschaft teurer und knapper werden lassen. Käme die Europäische Zentralbank, deren bisherige Wachstumsprognose von 2,3 Prozent der alten Lehman-Prognose etwa entsprach, zu einem ähnlichen Ergebnis, so würde dies den Verzicht auf eine Zinserhöhung oder gar eine Zinssenkung nahelegen. „Die EZB muss dringend handeln, um die Krise des Finanzsystems zu beheben und die Aufwertung des Euros zu stoppen“, forderte die Europa-Chefvolkswirtin der französischen Großbank Société Générale, Véronique Riches-Flores.
Nachdem der Euro schneller und stärker gestiegen war, als die meisten Bankvolkswirte erwarteten, passen nun viele ihre Prognosen nach oben an. Der Währungsstratege von Bear Stearns, Steven Barrow, sagt einen Anstieg auf 1,50 Dollar in den nächsten Monaten voraus. Auch die Analysten von Morgan Stanley erwarten, dass der Dollar noch schwächer wird. „Die Aussicht auf noch niedrigere Zinsen in den USA dürfte den Dollar weiter drücken“, schreiben die Experten der Investmentbank in einem Investorenbrief.
:((
;)
Konserven, Nudeln und viel Wasser kaufen ist auch ganz wichtig.
Wir sollten schon ein wenig ernst bleiben, es kann schlimm werden, muß es aber nicht und die Welt geht ganz bestimmt nicht unter.
Permanent
And Now... Today's Pfennig!
Celebration Time, Come On!
Good day... And a Tremendous Thursday to you! Well... The dust has settled on the Fed's 50 BPS rate cut... And now, as I look out across the markets, I have this thought... The Fed has basically told us that all is right with the world... Not to fear, for the Fed is here... To bail us all out... With that thought in mind... Why not get back to the "throw no caution to risk positions" mentality.
I just can't express enough what the Fed signaled to the markets... "Go ahead... Put those carry trades on until you can't put any more on"... That's not good for Japanese yen, folks... And yesterday's price action in yen tells it all, as yen fell to the 116 handle. This, to me, is just like everything else that the Fed has had their hands into... The longer those carry trades are allowed to live on... The worse the unwinding, when it comes, will be... And more folks will get hammered and I mean... Hammered!
Besides the selling of yen yesterday, the rest of the currencies only saw slight moves downward... Profit taking had to be the order of the day... The euro remains ready to strike at the 1.40 level... However, I read a research paper yesterday that explained how there was this well-known, large option to sell euros at 1.40... Knowing this... Any time euros move close to 1.40, knowing it won't go any higher at this time, profit taking sets in... But, I don't think this will have a hold of the market for too much longer... And since the Fed did its Cat Stevens and sang the first cut is the deepest, 1.40 might well be an "easy" target to hit... 1.45 might not be a hard target to hit... Am I saying it could go to 1.50? Hmmm... Well, anything is possible, right? All I'm saying is that with the negativity toward the dollar running high, and deposit rates in the U.S. going down, the possibilities are endless!
And now that I've written all that.. I look up and the euro has pushed through 1.40 anyway! WOW! We're talking lampshade wearing for Mike Meyer! So... Look at this currency GO! OK, I know you can't see the trading screens, but WOW! So much for that well-known option position to see euros at 1.40! This currency looks like it's riding on a bullet straight to the top!... I'd give it a 95, the beat is good, and you can dance to it!
1.40... I think I'll faint! No... Not faint... I think I'll jump for joy! No... I can't jump anymore... Hmmm, what shall I do to celebrate this occasion? Stop on the way to work and pick up some Krispy Kremes for the boys and girls on the desk? Celebration time, come on... We're gonna have a good time today, let's celebrate...
OK... I'm back now, I was gone for a minute there, but I'm back now! Where were we? Oh, that's right, the euro's triumphant climb past 1.40! OK, let's go on to other things, eh?
Oh... And the Government's printing of CPI sure put a feather in the Fed's cap... Believe it or not... The Gov't said that inflation fell -.1%... What? Oh brother! Why do they continue to think we are morons, and we don't feel inflation eating at us every day? CPI just doesn't tell the truth about what's going on, but... The markets seem to take the bait, hook, line and sinker! But not me! I don't believe it one iota!
The other piece of data that printed on Wednesday was Housing Starts... Housing Starts for August were weaker than expected, dropping 2.6%. A sharp 5.9% drop in permits does not provide much reason for optimism that housing activity is poised to turn around.
And foreclosures continue to shoot upward. RealtyTrac, in Irvine, California, reported that nationwide, lenders served notices of default to 108,716 homeowners in August, two and a half times the 42,144 a year ago, and up 50% from July.
“This is just the beginning of a wave of new foreclosures,” said Rick Sharga, an executive vice president at RealtyTrac.
Big Ben Bernanke will give his take on the economy to Congress today... His words will be followed closely to see if he gives any insight to the Fed's plans for further rate cuts... I'll bet he's pinned down on his thoughts of the housing market and how that could spread through to the rest of the economy. If he tells the truth... The markets will come away with the same thoughts I have and that is the Fed will come back to cut rates again in October, and maybe December...
If that happens, look for another round of dollar selling, which means euros, and the high yielders going hog wild again, along with gold and silver!
Today we will see Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed Survey, which monitors manufacturing in that region... The August Leading Indicators are expected to fall vs. last month, which makes sense given the market volatility in August... And the Philly Fed Survey is expected to fall vs. the August figure... So... No love for the dollar from the data today.
And borrowing a line from the '60s... Everybody's doing it! Here's what I'm talking about... The U.S. says that inflation on an annual basis is running at only 2%... Now we know that's a bunch of bunk... But now... Canada has issued a report on their inflation and they say it fell -.3% last month, putting the annualized rate at 1.7%. NO WAY! That's crazy talk! Oil prices are soaring... Energy prices as a whole are soaring, the economy is running at full capacity, and they expect us to believe that inflation fell last month?
I love the Canadian dollar/loonie... So I won't hold this against the currency... But remember the other day, when I mentioned that the loonie could hit parity, but not with any help from the Gov't? Well... This is what I'm talking about... By printing a report like this, the Gov't gets the markets to back off the pressure to hike interest rates again, thus reducing the attraction to the loonie...
The Australian dollar (A$) has really rallied since the rate cut announcement in the U.S. and it's not just tied to that rate cut... The rally in A$ has also been fueled by a rise in commodities again... For instance... Nickel kicked some tail and took names later yesterday, rising the most in 19 years! So... Duel injectors fueling the A$... And look... The A$ has pushed to within a hop, skip and a jump from 86 cents! WOW!
So... Tally it all up, and we have stocks, commodities, currencies and carry trades all benefiting from the 50 BPS rate cut... But not all is seashells and balloons, people... Inflation is going to hit us hard... Just you wait-n-see... And then more rate cuts will come, and the dollar will continue to get hammered... And risk? There will come a day, an event, much like the liquidity crunch in August, and carry trades will get unwound faster than you can say "unwind my position"!
And one more thing before we head to the Big Finish on this day when the euro passed 1.40... And that is... The Indian rupee... Amazing performance this past month! Yesterday, I called a big dealer to do an NDF in Indian rupee, and he tells me that the currency just traded below the 40 handle! WOW! This is the first time since 1998 that the rupee has seen the light of day below 40! (remember, rupees are priced European-style, which means as the price goes down, it returns more value to you when you convert to dollars)... That marks a 10% rise vs. the dollar this year...
Is there more in the rupee's tank here? It all depends on the money... If foreign inflows continue as strong as they have been in the past month... Then yes... However, I can't imagine the Indian Central Bank not intervening here to stem this rise... So... Look for rupees to curry their time at this level for a while... Which allows people to get in, get out, and get on with their lives!
Currencies today: A$ .8620, kiwi .7395, C$ .9895, euro 1.4035, sterling 2.0067, Swiss .8530, ISK 62.85, rand 7.07, krone 5.5370, SEK 6.5625, forint 178.78, zloty 2.6850, koruna 19.5780, yen 115.35, baht 31.57, sing 1.5040, HKD 7.7840, INR 39.89, China 7.5180, pesos 10.99, dollar index 78.92, silver $13.25, and gold... $735.40
That's it for today... Big Ben speaks today... Should be interesting... Had a visit from little Delaney Grace last night... She's such a cutie! Went home and slept a long time yesterday... Kristin and Christine think I'm overdoing it at work... OK... I'll work less! Pretty soon, I'll just go out to my car, and then come right back in the house! HAHAHAHA! Seriously, though, maybe they are right... I'll take it easier and see what happens! Gotta go now... Have a Tremendous Thursday!
Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
1-800-926-4922
1-314-647-3837
www.everbank.com
PFENNIG DISCLOSURE
Davon abgesehen: Die allgemeine Schwadronierei über die demnächstige Entwicklung finde ich müßig. In ein paar Wochen schon wird man feststellen, das 95 % davon für den Papierkorb war...
Ich habe bereits in Anti Lemming´s "USA Bären Thread" - Klassiker gepostet was ich von der Währung halte, nämlich gar nichts!
Die reinste Papierwährung hinter der (heute) immer weniger steht was die reale Wirtschaftsleistung angeht.
Die Währung wird gebraucht und gedruckt u.a. zur Begleichung der Kriegsschulden (2000 Mrd Dollar in den letzten Jahren), zur Einflußnahme politisch wie wirtschaftlich ("Spenden", Wirtschaftsverträge etc. damit Staaten und Organisationen Meinungen vertreten).
Das ist normalerweise ein Vorgang der nicht erwähnenswert wäre, denn das machen alle!
Aber hier ist es der erstaunliche Umfang der das Ganze so kritisch macht.
Mein Gedanke:
Gold kaufen, denn dieses Material ist unterbewertet.
Man sieht´s in den letzten Tagen, obwohl immer noch versucht wird Gold in die Ecke der spekulativen Anlagen Investments zu stellen. Und immer versucht man mit dem Faktor "Lagerkosten" Gold mies zu machen und es bringt auch sonst keine Erträge.
Das ist ja an und für sich richtig, doch nun muß man umdenken!
Hier geht es nicht mehr darum aus Papier noch mehr Papier zu machen (was eh größtenteils durch das Phänomen der Geldschöpfung nicht existiert- nur virtuell auf dem Konto), sondern es geht darum einen Wert zu bewahren. Ich will keine Erträge sondern ich möchte wenn die große Inflation kommt die persönliche Equity- Kurve oben halten. (Papier-)Geld wird durch hohe Inflation weniger wert. Der Sachwert ist die Sache selbst (der Preis dafür steigt natürlich mit, im Gleichschritt der Inflation), so verhindere ich eine Abwertung.
Ich darf also kein "Geld" liegen haben außer für den täglichen Gebrauch, der Rest muß inflationsgesichert investiert werden