Sehen wir den Anfang einer weltweiten Rezession?
http://www.handelsblatt.com/News/...e-laengst-nicht-ausgestanden.html
Erstantärge (US) auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung über den Erwartungen.
Orders für langlebige Wirtschaftsgüter (US) unter den Erwartungen, Abwärtsrevision des Vormonat.
Aber die Börse glaubt: Alles wird gut.
Permanent
O-Ton(örtl. Fußgängerzone): Hypo-was?? Ich bin nur mal Hübnottiesiert worden;-))
Die Aktienhändler und Anleger scheinen sich aber noch nicht so sehr zu fürchten. US Märkte holen gegen Handelsschluß immer wieder jeden Verlust auf, die asiatischen Märkte laufen ebenfalls positiv.
Alles nur eine Wette auf weiter sinkende Zinsen. Und diese (sinkende Zinsen) werden nicht in der Lage sein die Wirtschaft vor der Rezession zu bewahren.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/News/Unternehmen/...neue-schockwelle.html
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High oil prices hit Chinese petrol stationsAFX| 28 Oct 2007 | 07:32 AM ET
BEIJING (Thomson Financial) - Fuel shortages were reported at petrol stations throughout China Sunday as the cost of oil on the domestic market lagged behind record global prices, prompting refiners to slow deliveries.
Petrol stations were temporarily closed or refusing to sell petrol and diesel in Shanghai, the southern provinces of Guangdong and Fujian and in the central and eastern regions of Zhejiang, Shandong and Henan, state media reports said.
"In recent days the demand and supply situation for oil products has been tight," the People's Daily website quoted a PetroChina official from Henan province as saying.
"The main reason is that international oil prices have reached record highs while domestic prices have not followed suit. This has seriously influenced the production activities of refiners." With government subsidies keeping fuel prices artificially low, petrol stations are either running out of supplies or are shutting operations hoping for a state-approved rise, he said.
Price controls in China often result in oil being cheaper domestically than internationally, a situation that is especially exacerbated with large upward swings on the global market.
World oil prices surged to historic highs Friday, breaching 92 dollars a barrel for the first time in New York following a week of price surges.
According to Shanghai's Xinmin Evening News Sunday, numerous petrol stations along the major Shanghai-Hangzhou highway were jammed with vehicles after they had run out of supplies of diesel.
The report also said people hoping to depart the city for weekend outings had difficulty finding petrol stations selling supplies Sunday morning.
In some parts of the country, commuters were being limited to purchases of only 100 yuan of petrol, or were forced to buy premium fuel due to shortages of low-octane petrol, various reports said.
Truckers were also finding it difficult to tank up with diesel at a time when seasonal demand was expected to rise due to the ongoing harvest season.
Demand for energy in China, the world's second-largest oil importer, has rocketed as a result of explosive economic growth that has been in double digits for four consecutive years.
Imports last year accounted for 47 percent of the country's overall consumption, and industry observers have warned imports might make up more than 50 percent of its petroleum needs in a year or two.
During the first eight months of the year, China's net imports of crude oil rose 18.1 percent over the same period last year.
Chinese demand has been identified as at least partly responsible for currently high oil prices.
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http://www.handelsblatt.com/News/Unternehmen/...anzen-der-banken.html
Nach meiner Auffassung befinden sich die USA bereits in einer Rezession. Bis die meisten Menschen dieses begriffen haben ist der Boden wahrscheinlich schon erreicht.
Permanent
mit der Abkopplung des DAX?
Ich dachte eigentlich beim EUR waere bei 1,40 die Schmerzgrenze fuer viele dt. Exportwerte erreicht.
Es ist natuerlich moeglich, dass auslaendisches Geld nun aus US und Japan umschichtet nach EUR-Land; dennoch sollte es nicht langfristig so weitergehen koennen.
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Sales Probably Cooled as Fuel Prices Rose: U.S. Economy Preview
By Carlos Torres
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers slowed in October as rising fuel prices and falling property values left Americans with little extra cash to spend, economists said reports this week will show.
Purchases rose 0.2 percent after increasing 0.6 percent in September, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey before a Nov. 14 Commerce Department report. Figures from the Labor Department may show consumer and wholesale costs rose.
Consumer spending, a mainstay of the expansion, will continue to cool as Americans skimp on items such as clothing and furniture to pay their energy bills. The jump in fuel costs keeps inflation risks alive, preventing the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates again soon.
``There is no question that things are slowing,'' said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``It's primarily due to the higher prices of energy. Consumers are cutting back on all kinds of discretionary purchases.''
The projected increase in October sales would be the smallest in four months. Purchases excluding automobiles increased 0.3 percent after a 0.4 percent September gain, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey.
Unseasonably warm weather last month made matters worse for merchants as demand for jackets and sweaters waned. Seven out of 10 retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Macy's Inc., reported October sales below analysts' forecasts, according to a report last week from Retail Metrics LLC.
Chain-Store Sales
Sales at chain stores increased 1.6 percent from the same month last year, the worst October since 1995, the International Council of Shopping Centers said last week. The results, based on 44 chains, missed the New York-based group's 2 percent forecast and suggest a slowdown in holiday spending.
The housing slump may also be partly responsible for decreasing demand for furniture and appliances, economists said. A report from the National Association of Realtors on Nov. 13 may show the real-estate recession was getting worse.
The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes dropped to the lowest level on record in September, the agents' group is forecast to report. Higher credit costs and lending restrictions after the collapse in subprime mortgages may mean the industry's slump will linger well into 2008, economists said.
``Housing will probably be bad for the next 18 months,'' said Jeffrey Immelt, chief executive officer of General Electric Co., in a Nov. 8 PBS interview with Charlie Rose. ``We have to be cautious about the U.S. consumer. The consumer has used their house as a piggy bank.''
Prices Rise
A Labor Department report Nov. 15 may show prices paid by consumers rose 0.3 percent in October for a second month, according to the survey median. Excluding food and energy, so- called core prices probably increased 0.2 percent for a fifth consecutive month.
Gasoline and heating oil prices rose late in the month, suggesting the inflation news will only get worse.
The Labor Department's report on producer prices, due Nov. 14, is forecast to show a 0.3 percent October gain in wholesale costs after a 1.1 percent jump a month earlier.
``We will see the higher energy prices show up in the November data next month,'' said Wachovia's Vitner.
Fed policy makers won't have the November figures available until three days after their final meeting of the year on Dec. 11. For that reason, economists forecast the central bank will keep the target interest rate unchanged until early next year, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed this month.
Balanced Risks
The Fed currently views the risks of higher inflation and slower growth as being equally balanced after it lowered the rate target twice in as many months, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 8 in testimony to Congress. The jump in fuel costs is aggravating both concerns, he said.
``Further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity,'' Bernanke said.
Finally, factory reports this week may show manufacturing has cooled last month as consumer demand slowed. Industrial production rose 0.1 percent, the same as September, the Fed is projected to report Nov. 16.
The figures suggest the two-year housing slump is spilling over to other areas. Still, a weaker dollar and stronger growth abroad are boosting demand from overseas and will keep output from tumbling, economists said.
Bloomberg Survey Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey Prior 11/13 2:00 Oct. Budget Statement -$59B -$49.3B 11/13 3:00 Sept. Home Resales Pending -2.5% -6.5% 11/14 8:30 Oct. Producer Price Index 0.3% 1.1% 11/14 8:30 Oct. PPI Ex-food & energy 0.2% 0.1% 11/14 8:30 Oct. Retail Sales 0.2% 0.6% 11/14 8:30 Oct. Retail Sales Ex-autos 0.3% 0.4% 11/14 8:30 Sept. Business Inventories 0.4% 0.1% 11/15 8:30 Oct. Consumer Price Index 0.3% 0.3% 11/15 8:30 Oct. CPI Ex-food & energy 0.2% 0.2% 11/15 8:30 11/10 Initial Jobless Claims 320K 317K 11/15 12:00 Nov. Philadelphia Fed 5.0 6.8 11/16 9:15 Oct. Capacity Utilization 82.0% 82.1% 11/16 9:15 Oct. Industrial Production 0.1% 0.1%
To contact the reporter on this story: Carlos Torres in Washington Ctorres2@bloomberg.net
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Asian Markets Dive, Nikkei Wipes Out 2007 GainsASIAN MARKETS, SHARES, NIKKEI, KOSPI, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE, STRAITS TIMESBy CNBC.comCNBC.com| 11 Nov 2007 | 10:56 PM ET
Asian markets extended losses as stocks took a nosedive in the afternoon session Monday. Tokyo shares sank as much as 3.7 percent, wiping out all of the Nikkei's gains for 2007 as investors dumped Japanese exporters on the back of a surge in the yen to an 18-month high against the U.S. dollar.
Worries over more credit-related losses at U.S. financial firms hit the dollar, sending it to a low near 110.20 yen -- a level last seen in May 2006. The concerns were rekindled on Friday when Wachovia, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, reported a potential $1.7
billion loss on mortgage-related debt.
Tokyo stocks continued to bleed with both the Nikkei 225 Average and TOPIX indexes dropping more than 3 percent, in a broad selloff following the yen's sharp rise against the dollar and big losses on Wall Street. Exporters including Honda Motor slid following the yen's sharp rise.
South Korea's KOSPI plunged as much as 3 percent, after the Wachovia warning of loan losses heightened worries about credit market strains, pressuring financial firms such as Kookmin Bank and Shinhan Financial. Exporters were also under pressure with Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor both lower.
Australian shares fell over 1 percent, dragged down by a fall in resource firms such as Woodside Petroleum on weaker oil and base metal prices, though takeover target Rio Tinto rose to a fresh record.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled over 4 percent, shedding over a thousand points as worries about the U.S. economy spread beyond the financial sector, while Beijing's move to raise reserve ratios for banks also hurt sentiment. China Eastern Airlines shares tumbled as much as 22 percent as they caught up to the market's downturn following a week of suspended trade, after the company's board approved a stake sale to Singapore Airlines.
Singapore's Straits Times Index extended the morning's losses, dropping over 3 percent in line with falls in regional markets after Wall Street tumbled on Friday. Banks were leading the declines with DBS Group, United Overseas Bank, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp all sharply lower.
China's Shanghai Composite Index plunged more than 4 percent after the central bank announced at the weekend that it would raise the ratio of bank reserve requirements, effective
from Nov. 26, in its latest monetary tightening. Worries about tightening monetary policy, sky-high stock valuations and heavy supply of new shares from public offers have undermined a bull run that had more than doubled the main index since the start of this year to last month's record high.
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Gruß
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California, Florida, Ohio Cities Top ForeclosuresHOUSING, REAL ESTATE, MORTGAGEBy ReutersReuters| 14 Nov 2007 | 08:16 AM ET
Cities in California, Florida and Ohio dominated the 25 U.S. metro areas with the highest home foreclosure rates, though rates jumped in most of the top regions during the third quarter, RealtyTrac said on Wednesday.
Foreclosure filings rose in 77 of the largest 100 metropolitan areas from the prior quarter, according to the Irvine, California-based marketer of foreclosure properties.
A broad credit and liquidity crisis during the third quarter exacerbated U.S. housing industry troubles, pushing sales sharply lower and unsold inventory to record highs.
Overall, U.S. residential foreclosure filings nearly doubled in the third quarter from a year earlier, RealtyTrac reported earlier this month.
Stockton, Calif., Detroit, Michigan and Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif., had the three highest foreclosure rates among the 100 biggest U.S. metro areas in the quarter.
Stockton's rate of one foreclosure filing for every 31 households, the highest of the metro areas, was a surge of more than 30 percent from the prior quarter. A total of 7,116 filings on 4,409 properties were reported in the metro area during the quarter.
In Detroit, the foreclosure rate of one filing for every 33 households ranked second and was more than double the number of filings reported in the previous quarter, RealtyTrac said. A total of 25,708 filings on 16,079 properties were reported.
Other cities in the top 10 were Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; Las Vegas, Nevada; Sacramento, Calif.; Cleveland, Ohio; Miami, Florida; Bakersfield, Calif. and Oakland, Calif.
California cities accounted for seven of the top 25 metro foreclosure rates. Florida and Ohio each accounted for five of the top 25 spots.
Home prices in California had surged by double digits in each of the first five years of the decade, and are now leading the price declines that are depressing the U.S. housing market.
A large share of loans in recent years were adjustable-rate and other products aimed at improving affordability. But payment shock after large interest-rate adjustments has made the default and foreclosure rate spike.
Florida has been hurt also by a glut of condos and homes that speculators have been unable to flip, or sell quickly, and are now priced less than the value of the mortgage.
Some Midwest states are particularly hard hit by soft local economies.
"Although cities in just three states -- California, Ohio and Florida -- accounted for more than two-thirds of the top 25 metro foreclosure rates, increasing foreclosure activity was not limited to just a few hot spots," James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.
As for areas with the biggest number of foreclosure filings, Riverside-San Bernardino, Los Angeles, Detroit and Atlanta led the list.
"Still, there continue to be pockets of the country, most noticeably metro areas in the Carolinas, Virginia and Texas, that have thus far dodged the foreclosure bullet," Saccacio said.
Foreclosure filings reported by RealtyTrac include default notices, auction sales notices and bank repossessions.
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| HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 15. November 2007, 08:55 Uhr | |||
KreditkriseBarclays muss 1,3 Mrd Pfund abschreiben  |
am Donnerstag in London mit. Von Juli bis September würden bei Barclays Capital 500 Mill. Pfund und im Oktober 800 Mill. Pfund abgeschrieben. Diese Belastungen durch die Kreditkrise sind allerdings geringer als am Markt erwartet worden war. Der Gewinn der Investmentsparte liege in den zehn Monaten bis Oktober nach den Abschreibungen über dem des Vorjahres. ein. Vor allem die Abschreibungen seien geringer als erwartet ausgefallen. Auch die Angaben zur Liquiditätssituation seien beruhigend. Vorbörslich legt der Kurs um knapp 5 Prozent zu. |
Citigroup Gets 'Sell' Rating, May Face $15 Billion HitBy ReutersReuters| 19 Nov 2007 | 12:05 PM ET
Goldman Sachs downgraded Citigroup to "sell" from "neutral," and said the largest U.S. bank may have to write off $15 billion over the next two quarters as mortgage losses reduce earnings.
The report from analyst William Tanona came shortly after Citigroup's own chief U.S. equity strategist, Tobias Levkovich, upgraded the nation's banking sector to "overweight" from
"market weight," calling selling pressure "overdone."
Citigroup shares fell $1.13, or 3.3 percent, to $32.87 in morning trading. They began the year at $55.70.
Goldman's forecast compares with the $8 billion to $11 billion that Citigroup on Nov. 4 said it may write off this quarter for exposure to subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations. Charles Prince, Citigroup's chief executive, resigned the same day.
"With deteriorating consumer and housing metrics, Citigroup is facing mounting pressure across many businesses," Tanona wrote. "The lack of leadership at this point in Citigroup's storied history could not have come at a worse time."
Tanona also cut Citigroup's price target to $33 from $48, and his profit-per-share forecast to $3.80 from $4.65 for 2008, and to $4.60 from $5.20 in 2009. He said the bank may need to
cut its 54-cents-per-share quarterly dividend or find new capital to shore up capital levels.
The analyst also lowered his price targets for six other banks and brokerages: Bear Stearns , E+Trade Financial, JPMorgan Chase, Lehman Brothers Holdings, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.
Banks have announced more than $50 billion of write-downs tied to the U.S. housing slump, as defaults soared and the value of mortgages that investors deemed too risky plummeted.
The projected $8 billion to $11 billion write-down is on top of a top of a $1.83 billion mortgage-related loss that Citigroup took in the third quarter. The New York-based bank on Nov. 4 said it had no plans to cut its dividend.
Goldman expects an $11 billion write-down this quarter, and $4 billion in the first quarter of 2008. A $15 billion loss would, after taxes, wipe out close to six months of profit.
"(The) risk taking culture may be irreparably damaged," Tanona wrote.
Among 19 analysts who cover Citigroup, eight rate it "buy" or the equivalent, eight rate it "hold" and three rate it "sell," according to Reuters Estimates.
Tanona issued his report after Citigroup strategist Levkovich on Nov. 16 upgraded the banking sector, saying it has "compelling valuations and beaten down earnings estimate revisions, not to mention repulsive sentiment around these stocks, a contrarian signal."
Levkovich also wrote that worries about subprime exposures have created a "pile-on effect that seems to be overdone." He admitted his upgrade may seem "fairly controversial."
Copyright 2007 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
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Freddie Mac Stock Plunges 28% As Losses WidenEARNINGS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, MORTGAGE, CREDIT, SUBPRIMEBy ReutersReuters| 20 Nov 2007 | 11:19 AM ET
Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage finance company, posted a wider third-quarter loss and said it may slash its dividend and raise new capital as it works through what it called an "extremely difficult year" for housing and credit markets.
Freddie shares plummeted to an 11-year low after reporting a net loss of $2 billion as falling home prices and tighter credit conditions increased the number of borrowers defaulting on their mortgages.
Freddie said it has hired Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers to help it study raising capital in the "very near term" as its soaring losses force it to raise cash to ensure it has enough capital to meet regulatory requirements. It may also cut its fourth quarter dividend by 50 percent.
If its capital fell below required levels, the company may be forced to reduce the size of its mortgage portfolio.
The gloomy housing market is likely to continue to be a drag on Freddie in the near-term, said Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer of Advisors Capital Management, which owns Freddie shares.
"I suspect it will continue to worsen in terms of actual defaults," he said.
Fannie Mae Stock Hit
Freddie's dismal report dragged shares of larger rival Fannie Mae down about 20 percent.
Buddy Piszel, Freddie's chief financial officer, said the housing market will hurt the company's bottom line for some time even though the company mostly deals in low-risk home loans offered to strong borrowers.
"Certainly, when housing markets deteriorate, that has an impact. We clearly will incur higher costs with markets being what they are," said Piszel.
The $2 billion loss, or $3.29 a share, compared with a loss of $715 million, or $1.17 a share, in the year-ago period. Wall Street analysts, on average, had expected Freddie Mac to report
a third quarter loss of $2.16 per share.
More of Freddie Mac's home loans are heading into foreclosure, which has forced the company to increase its provisions for failing loans. Freddie said Tuesday it had put aside $1.2 billion for credit losses and had begun to increase fees for guaranteeing the payment on home loans.
Assets Plunge in Value
Freddie also said the value of its net assets decreased by about $8.1 billion in the third quarter.
The cost to insure Freddie's bonds against default rose to a record 65 basis points after its earnings, according to data from Markit which dates from 2004. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
are chartered by Congress and investors treat them as if they have an implied government guarantee.
Piszel said that fresh capital would be used to maintain a cushion against losses. Freddie also wants the capital to leave it with some flexibility to increase its mortgage investment holdings, he said.
"Given where credit is heading, given how we performed in 2007, we believe that we need to raise capital," Piszel said.
The company said in a statement that it might sell preferred stock to increase its capital. Fitch Ratings, however, said it may cut Freddie's AA- preferred stock rating following news it was looking at raising additional capital.
Partly to increase its capital reserves, Freddie sharply shrank its holdings of mortgage securities in October and pushed them further below a growth limit set by the regulator,
the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
Freddie Mac's retained mortgage portfolio dropped by an annualized 16.9 percent rate in October to $703.1 billion, after decreasing significantly the previous month.
Freddie shares hit an 11-year low while Fannie Mae shares reached a 12-year trough in early trading. Freddie shares are down 58 percent year-to-date, compared with a 48 percent drop
in the KBW Mortgage Finance Index over the same period.
Copyright 2007 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
zunächst ifo, gestern bereits bei kartenhai gepostet:
ifo: Weltwirtschaftsklima trübt ein
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Experten erwarten durch Finanzkrise kaum negative Folgen auf Konjunktur
FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Die Finanzmarktkrise wird das weltweite Wirtschaftswachstum nach Einschätzung von Experten nur leicht dämpfen. "Die Stimmung ist schlechter als die Lage", sagte der Leiter der Abteilung Konjunktur beim Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Joachim Scheide, am Mittwoch in Frankfurt. Die jüngsten Turbulenzen dürften zwar auch in der Realwirtschaft "Bremsspuren" hinterlassen, eine Rezession sei aber nicht zu befürchten. Das Wachstumstempo werde sich in fast allen Regionen der Welt nur verlangsamen.
"Alles spricht dafür, dass es recht glimpflich abläuft", sagte Scheide. Allerdings habe das Risiko einer Rezession in den USA in jüngster Zeit etwas zugenommen. Insbesondere die kräftige Stimmungseintrübung bei den US-Konsumenten dürfte die nach wie vor recht geringe Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den USA von zuletzt 20 Prozent auf inzwischen wohl 30 Prozent erhöht haben. Der Konsum in den USA werde im kommenden Jahr aber nicht einbrechen, sondern nur langsamer wachsen, erwartet Scheide. Die US-Notenbank dürfte die Konjunktur mit weiteren zwei Leitzinssenkungen um jeweils 0,25 Prozentpunkte auf dann 4,00 Prozent stützen. In der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2008 sei so eine leichte Beschleunigung des Wachstums zu erwarten. Das Jahr 2009 dürfte bereits deutlich besser ausfallen.
'KEINE SCHLECHTE KONJUNKTURLAGE'
Auch DZ-Bank-Chefvolkswirt Hans Jäckel bleibt trotz der jüngsten Turbulenzen insgesamt positiv gestimmt. Die Wirtschaft in der Eurozone dürfte auch 2008 moderat wachsen. Für Deutschland sei dann ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,1 Prozent zu erwarten, nach 2,5 Prozent 2007. Das Wachstum liege damit weiter über dem Potenzial. "Das ist keine schlechte Konjunkturlage", betonte Jäckel. Die Belebung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt dürfte beim privaten Konsum im kommenden Jahr zu einem deutlichen Wachstum von zwei Prozent führen. "Das ist der Befreiungsschlag aus der langjährigen Konsumflaute", sagte Jäckel.
Das größte Risiko ist aus Sicht von Jäckel derzeit der Ölpreis. Sowohl Jäckel als auch Scheide halten das derzeitige Niveau von fast 100 US-Dollar je Barrel (159 Liter) allerdings für spekulativ übertrieben. Während Jäckel für das kommende Jahr im Durchschnitt einen Ölpreis von knapp 70 US-Dollar erwartet, geht Scheide von durchschnittlich 80 US-Dollar aus. Auch die Dollar-Schwäche ist nach Einschätzung von Jäckel übertrieben. Der Kurs des Euro dürfte Ende 2008 bei 1,37 US-Dollar liegen. Erst am Mittwoch hatten der US-Ölpreis mit 99,20 Dollar und der Euro mit 1,4855 Dollar neue Rekordstände erreicht./jha/jb/mf/
finanzen.net >> news 21.11.07
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| HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 22. November 2007, 05:03 Uhr |
GolfstaatenDas Dollar-DilemmaVon Christoph Rabe |