$$$ First Solar, die amerikanische Q-Cells $$$
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dpa-AFX Broker - die Trader News von dpa-AFX
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siehe posting # 215 am 25.10.2011
da waren es noch 3,8 Mrd. $
für mich ein klarer Kauf.
- Gewinne der letzten 3 Quartale
- Verhältsnis Gewinn/ MC 2011
- Verhältnis Cash/MC 2011
- EK
1. First Solar
2. Yingli Green
3. SMA Solar
4. Jinkosolar
5. Renesola
5. GT Advanced
5. Trina Solar
8. Solarworld
9. Centrotherm
10. Ja Solar
11. Hanwha Solarone
12. Canadian Solar
13. MEMC
14. Suntech Power
14. LDK Solar
16. China Sunergy
17. Phoenix Solar
18. Sunpower
19. Q-Cells
20. Renewable Energy
nächstes Ranglisten Update: 06.01.2012
mit 2 neuen Werten: Daqo New Energy & Power-One
2. First Solar (39 Punkte)
3. Power-One (31 Punkte)
4. SMA Solar (23 Punkte)
5. Jinkosolar (21 Punkte)
6. GT Advanced (19 Punkte)
7. Yingli Green (14 Punkte)
8. Centrotherm ( 8 Punkte)
9. Renesola ( 7 Punkte)
10. Trina Solar ( 5 Punkte)
11. Solarworld ( 1 Punkte)
12. Hanwha ( -2 Punkte)
13. Ja Solar ( - 3 Punkte)
14. MEMC (-13 Punkte)
15. Canadian Solar (-20 Punkte)
16. LDK Solar ( -23 Punkte)
17. Suntech P. (-28 Punkte)
18. Renewable (-31 Punkte)
19. China Sunergy (-33 Punkte)
20. Sunpower (-34 Punkte)
21. Phoenix Solar (-36 Punkte)
22. Q-Cells (-48 Punkte)
Nächstes Update: Ende Januar
Grundlage der Berechung:
- Gewinne der letzten 3 Quartale
- Verhältsnis Gewinn/ MC 2011
- EK
goodwill abschreibungen in höhe von 393 Mio $ im 4.quartal verhagelten das geschäftsergebnis
http://www.it-times.de/news/hintergrundbericht/...rategiewechsel-ein/
First Solar wir nun den dritten Tag verprügelt und näherte sich heute bis auf ca. 1% seinem Langzeittief von 29,87 Dollar.
Ich gehe davon aus, dass der Wert bald einen Rebound um mindestens 15-20 % vollziehen wird.
1.) Läuft mit der kürzlich gefährdeten Kraftwerksgenehmigung nun scheinbar alles nach Plan. Das ist in den zugegeben schlechten Zahlen untergegangen.
2.) Steht immer noch die Strafzollentscheidung aus, die aus politischen Gründen nun auf 19. März verschoben wurde. Das indiziert ja schon, dass Zölle kommen werden und man reduziert somit die Nachzahlungen der Chinesen (3 Monate rückwirkend) um Entgegenkommen zu signalisieren.
3.) Gibt es gerade viel Stimmungsmache wegen der Gewährleistungsfälle. Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass der größte Dünnschichthersteller seit Jahren nur Schrott produziert, die haben ja sicher auch ein funktionierendes QM. Die Fälle sollen sich auf einen Produktionszeitraum von etwas einem Jahr beschränken und nur bei großer Hitze auftreten, so dass auch nicht alle Zellen betroffen sind. Angeblich sind die Ansprüche von Betroffenen schon zu über 90% befriedigt.
4.) Soll derr Markt in USA in 2012 um ca 120% wachsen
5.) Hat First Solar eine Auftragspipeline die sehr komfortabel ist
6.) Können die Chinesen diese niedrigen Zellenpreise auch nicht mehr lange halten, da sie damit massive Verluste einfahren. Von dieser Entwicklung wäre First Solar DER große Gewinner, insbesondere in einem durch Zölle geschützten Markt in USA .
7.) Könnte ich mir vorstellen, dass durch die neue Kürzung der Einspeisevergütung Dünnschichtzellen in D wieder attraktiver werden. Um noch eine gute Rendite zu erzielen ist der Preis der Anlage sehr im Vordergrund und es geht u.U. nicht mehr darum, eine Dachfläche optimal auszunützen, sondern eher unter 10 kW zu bleiben und mit möglichst geringer Investition und viel Eigenverbrauch (prozentual) zu arbeiten.
8.) Der stark wachsende Markt in China wird etwas den Verkaufdruck auf die Chinesen im Rest der Welt mindern und somit auch einen langsameren Preisverfall begünstigen.
By Eric Rosenbaum 03/08/12 - 08:50 AM EST
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Stock quotes in this article:FSLR, BRK.B
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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- At the end of 2011, shares of First Solar(FSLR_) hit an all-time low, and shorts began to get a little nervous.
More on FSLR
NI Technology Research Updates Outlooks For First Solar, DragonWave, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Tower Semiconductor, And Silicon Laboratories
At A Glance: Forbes Magazine's Top 10 Billionaires
First Solar: S&P Intraday Laggard
Market Activity
First Solar Inc.| FSLR
UP
Berkshire Hathaway Inc| BRK.B
A stock that had been above $160 in 2011 had suddenly fallen so far so fast it was logical to believe that a much larger company would acquire it and pay some level of premium that could burn shorts.
Now it looks like that risk has been taken off the table, as First Solar has hit a succession of all-time lows.
In fact, the removal of the takeout premium risk would help explain why First Solar can't find a bottom in recent trading, and that would relate directly to the biggest First Solar risk of all: the revelation from the company in its recent earnings that its thin film panels are experiencing problems operating in high heat.
Analysts remains typically divided on the First Solar story, but as a trading instrument, it seems that the shorts are a little less fearful today than they were just a few months ago about riding First Solar all the way down to single-digits, possibly $0.
In recent analysis of the First Solar earnings selloff, there were plenty of reasons to explain the negative sentiment. The company provided an even worse outlook for 2012 than it had provided just two months previous -- leaving the room open for a miss of earnings guidance that had already been slashed at the end of 2011. First Solar added to warranty charges that the company had said would not linger into 2012, and that left several analysts saying it was difficult to put much stock in management ability to assess the ongoing warranty liability.
The biggest risk of all, though -- that its technology might not even work in the intense heat conditions upon which its future strategy is focused- seemed like a wild card issue that didn't need to be assessed to be down on the company's prospects.
Upon further analysis, it might be the one that is allowing shorts to get one last great trade on this stock, when they previously thought the last great First Solar trade would expire at the $26 mark. At the same time, long investors could be as big if not an ever bigger part of the continued slide, "puking" First Solar stocks because the risk of technology failure is too significant to hold onto shares.
First Solar shares closed at $25.80 on Wednesday after a near 7% drop, bringing their five-day decline to 27%.
All of First Solar's sector peers have been declining in recent trading, but there's a key difference: First Solar is now below its low point of the year (and all-time low) while most of its solar peers, even after steady decline in recent weeks, are still positive in 2012 after a huge rally to start the year.
Solar trading history dictates that when consensus swings all one way, it's just as likely for stocks to swing in the other direction. That's what has happened this year: the solar sector opened at a low and rallied sharply but then came right back down, and with many solar stocks still likely to retest 2011 lows.
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By Eric Rosenbaum 03/08/12 - 08:50 AM EST
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Stock quotes in this article:FSLR, BRK.B
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More on FSLR
NI Technology Research Updates Outlooks For First Solar, DragonWave, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Tower Semiconductor, And Silicon Laboratories
At A Glance: Forbes Magazine's Top 10 Billionaires
First Solar: S&P Intraday Laggard
Market Activity
First Solar Inc.| FSLR
Berkshire Hathaway Inc| BRK.B
For First Solar specifically, "You can tweak a few assumptions and get to $50 or $15 for this stock," said Maxim Group analyst Aaron Chew said. He added that with solar stocks it's often good to run counter to consensus, and consensus right now is that everyone hates the sector and First Solar.
Yet there's a "consensus" catch with First Solar specifically, though, and that's what makes Chew more hesitant this time to consider that it's time to do the opposite of everybody else and say that First Solar will rebound.
"The scariest thing is people who say that the stock can't go to zero," he said. "I can't say it doesn't go to zero."
In essence, the consensus that is being spurned in the continued pressure on First Solar is the belief that even if things are tough, the company can't become obsolete.
"Are they going to become the VCR of solar?" Chew asked.
Chew is less focused on shorts ratcheting up the First Solar trade as a reason for the slide, though, than with long investors ditching First Solar. "What drove it from $80 to $30 was all the guys getting out," he noted. "Now it's broken $30 and the 52-week low," the analyst added.
Hari Chandra, analyst at Auriga Securities, remains a believer.
"First Solar is fine on its own and also despite this madness -- remember despite all the nonsense that gets spewed at it on a daily basis it is the only company that still makes money in the entire solar PV space."
For how long, though? If the First Solar business is predicated on finding equity buyers willing to take a risk on investments in large-scale solar projects with multidecade panel performance requirements, it does raise the question of how many will take that risk if the panel technology doesn't have the track record to back it up and the company itself is now only backing it up more hesitantly.
At the same time, the price of competing crystalline silicon panels is continuing down with the performance continuing to improve. Crystalline silicon panels have been used for more than three decades in the field.
It's not just that prospective project buyers might shy away, but that ultimately First Solar's balance sheet ability to pay warranty claims could be constrained, and it won't be easy for a company to raise equity for the purpose of paying off warranties to replace faulty panels.
This is a worst-case scenario. However, none of these questions can be answered today, including by a prospective project acquirer, or a GE-type company that might consider buying First Solar.
"GE would have to think twice," Chew said, though he added that the M&A analysis includes more wrinkles. When First Solar was at $50, it was arguably still too expensive for GE to contemplate as an acquisition, but in the $20s, even with 50% premium it becomes an issue of whether First Solar shareholders would be willing to sell.
"You may not be able to get First Solar shareholders to sell out at this level," Chew said. The most prominent of First Solar's shareholders is the Wa
By Eric Rosenbaum 03/08/12 - 08:50 AM EST
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Stock quotes in this article:FSLR, BRK.B
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Chandra blames much of the First Solar woes on the Chinese state sponsorship of its solar sector: "They cannot compete with insanity -- it is not competing with companies but it is competition against China as a sovereign entity. Once you understand that, everything else is very, very clear," the analyst argues.
More on FSLR
NI Technology Research Updates Outlooks For First Solar, DragonWave, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Tower Semiconductor, And Silicon Laboratories
At A Glance: Forbes Magazine's Top 10 Billionaires
First Solar: S&P Intraday Laggard
Market Activity
First Solar Inc.| FSLR
Berkshire Hathaway Inc| BRK.B
The latest weekly data on the price of polysilicon, down 4%, showed that the Chinese solar supply glut continues, as pricing has again deteriorated again after a rebound at the beginning of the year.
Chinese solar companies continue to guide to big shipment gains this year, implying that there will be little shuttering of capacity among First Solar's top tier rivals.
On Wednesday, Canadian Solar(CSIQ) guided to as much as 2 gigawatts of shipments in 2012 -- banking on its project business in Canada and a ramp in its home market of China -- and that 2GW sales goal puts it ahead of First Solar's total production guidance for 2012. If it is to reach its 2GW sales goal, it's likely to be profitless in doing so, and Canadian Solar shares were down 13% on Wednesday, though still up 7% this year.
Chandra accepts that the First Solar call and the panel performance issues in high temperature have not helped. "First Solar's bad communication does not help. Since solar PV stocks are all trading oriented -- people can easily blow bad communication out of proportion -- and it surely seems to be the case with First Solar.
There was one tortured moment on the conference call with analysts when First Solar CEO Michael Ahearn was asked by Avian Securities analyst Mark Bachman about reports of workers being furloughed at First Solar's largest and one of its most critical project for neat-term earnings, Topaz.
At first, Ahearn said that he didn't know anything about it, and then after a pause, recanted, and said they had heard about it but it was nothing much to be worried about.
It may be possible that an interim CEO fighting to right a company that has overturned could literally not be aware of this issue, however, would it breed confidence if that were the case, and the First Solar CEO didn't even know about a work stoppage at its most important project? In that one moment, to say the least, First Solar management's credibility was strained.
Still, it's less the credibility of management but the credibility of the panels that allows First Solar shorts to say the greatest short of all isn't done just yet.
Chandra said, "We will see how this issue gets resolved -- fundamental issue and done with, or an operational issue that is fixable but with some extra cost."
Indeed, that last question seems to be the one that underlies First Solar trading, as shares seek out a bottom, or according some short bettors, continue into the abyss.
-- Written by Eric Rosenbaum from New York.
Der gestrige Kursanstieg war sozusagen "lächerlich" .Die technische Gegenreaktion ist längst überfällig, zumal die Aktie sehr stark geshortet ist. Und wenn diese sich eindecken müssen, dann hoffe ich auf ein wunderschönes Kursfeuerwerk!
Am liebsten heute schon, das würde meine Nerven etwas schonen!
In diesem Sinne-----Good luck!
Die Solarwelt wird nicht untergehen, nur weil in Deutschland die Förderung zurückgeht.
Chancen dürften größer sein, als das Risiko.
Optionen
| Boardmail an "dolphin69" |
Wertpapier: First Solar |
Deutet alles auf einen beginnenden Short-Squeeze bei First Solar hin. Über 32% des Free-Float ist leerverkauft und die Probleme der Firma wurden in den letzte Tagen überzeichnet dargestellt:
Fakt ist: Die Qualitätsprobleme bei den Modulen ist auf einen engen Produktionszeitraum eingeschränkt. Die Produktion läuft aber seit mehr als 2 Jahren einwandfrei und die Sache ist zu 95% abgearbeitet.
Die Kürzung der Deutschen Solarförderung wird den Zubau in D in 2012 im Vergleich zu 2011 nicht reduzieren, meint die DIHK - Im Gegenteil: Man rechnet mit einem Zubau von sogar 8%!
Zudem wird First Solar zu dieser MK zunehmend als Übernahmekanditat gehandelt.
Würde mich nicht wundern, wenn da einige Shorties mächtig auf die Mütze bekommen....
es so schön, eine Krise nähert sich dann dem Ende, wenn auch die Starken leiden. Das kann man derzeit schön ablesen, denn mit SMA und First Solar trifft es derzeit die Aushängeschilder der Branche. Bei einer derartigen EK-Quote wie sie FS aufweist (wovon D Unternehmen nur träumen) kann ich mir eine Insolvenz oder Zahlungsschwierigkeiten beim besten Willen nicht vorstellen.
Optionen
| Boardmail an "Elfer" |
Wertpapier: First Solar |
Habe heute zusätzlich noch einen BULL auf SMA Solar gekauft. Ich denke, die Aktie wird nächste Woche auch noch aufwachen. Centrotherm und Solarworld sind ja heute schon mithochgeschwommen, STP und YGE auch im Plus, da gibts doch noch Hoffnung für die Branche. Und auf diesen Kursniveaus eine Versuchung wert...
Schönes Wochenende...
Ich habe mir heute Anschlußkäufe versprochen...statt dessen wird hier wieder abverkauft!
Na ja, was noch nicht ist, kann ja noch werden.
Good luck!
March 12, 2012 | 1 comment | includes: FSLR, RIMM, SIRI
Following the closing of U.S. stock markets on 3/9/2012, Nasdaq released its latest bi-monthly short interest data. There was a noticeable increase in the outstanding short interest of Research In Motion Limited (RIMM), where the total number of short shares increased from 55.9 Million shares to 59.2 Milllion shares. With 459.4 Million shares floating, the corresponding short interest ratio for RIMM (short shares as a percentage of float) has increased from 12.1% to 12.9%.
Similarly, short interest for Sirius XM Radio, Inc. (SIRI) increased from 273.1 Million shares to 285.8 Million shares, with the corresponding short interest ratio increasing from 7.4% to 7.7%, while First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) saw its short interest increase from 13.7 Million shares to 18.6 Million shares, with the corresponding short interest ratio increasing from 19.6% to 26.7%.
As already discussed in an article we published on 3/2/2012, "4 stocks heavily impacted by short interest," while an increase in short interest can possibly provide short term boost to shares (on even minor unexpected positive news), such indicator does not necessarily provide long term sustained appreciation in the value of the underlying shares. In addition, some may even argue that given option associated hedging, such indicator can be misleading. However, in the case of the 3 stocks mentioned, it is possible a boost in share prices can occur, at least in the short term.
Dann steigen sie in Calls ein und verdienen sich wieder eine goldene Nase!
Ich denke, da sind Profis am Werk....wir Kleinanleger haben da keinen Einfluß auf die Kurse, wir können nur hoffen, daß die Großen wieder die Aktie kaufen und uns mitziehen!
Good luck!