Ein reiner Suntech-Thread

Suntech (STP) vs. First Solar (FSLR) - These two titans of solar are treading rough waters right now, which is why I'm more excited than ever to invest in them and the solar industry in general. Their recent stock prices have demonstrated that there is some consensus of long term disappointment, which I'm tending to believe is as overstated as the bubble that inflated them. Regardless of your macro views, on either the global economy or on solar, I've made some notes on STP and FSLR that might be helpful when opting back into solar or choosing among its two largest competitors. In addition, I will grade each company (A-D) based on the following factors, including a current and long term grade:

1. Module Cost per Watt

FSLR: Current B+, Long term A-
STP: Current C+, Long term B+

First Solar is clearly the current cost leader, with their much cheaper CdTe-based modules costing around $0.76 per watt. Suntech, on the other hand, produces their c-Si based modules at almost twice that cost, at around $1.30 per watt. FSLR will continue to lower costs, and it's estimated they will reach about $0.69 by the end of 2012 (thus their better grade). Because thin film only makes up about 15-20% of the market and is still in an infancy stage, we haven't seen strains on the telluride market. If and when Cd-Te takes off even further, there could be serious strains on Te prices, since this is a very rare Earth metal.

In general, I think there is underestimated room for improvement for polysilicon-based marginal costs. First, new technologies are enabling cheaper production techniques of c-Si panels (using less polysilicon for the same efficiency), which STP is exploring. Second, polysilicon prices have been free falling. This is going to seriously strain thin film companies, Third, STP's expanding wafer manufacturing capacities will continue to give it greater scale and cost-savings in production, while the fall in polysilicon prices will complement the effects. STP has said they expect to see at least less than $1 per watt by 2013 and I think this seems achievable, perhaps even sooner. Given these considerations, I see a greater upside (though still lower) in cost per watt for STP, but the better grade still goes to FSLR.

2. Efficiency

FSLR: Current C+, Long term B+
STP: Current B, Long term B+

STP has, for the time being, slowed its pace in developing more efficient modules--to around 17-18% (a c-Si average), while FSLR has steadily improved their efficiency to about 13-14% in mass production. I don't see a large long term upside for STP, but instead improvements in production processes and additional technologies that allow them to use less polysilicon and maintain the same efficiencies. In the near term, this will really help with cost as well. CdTe certainly has more growth potential in terms of efficiency and I don't think a 18-19% target by 2013 is unreachable. Overall, I think this factor is less important. A possible upcoming recession, as well as new, undeveloped technologies (such as CIGS) will remain more significant factors than 2-3% differences in current and near term efficiency levels.

3. Geography and Diversification

FSLR: Current B-, Long term B
STP: Current B, Long term A-

FSLR is based in the United States in Tempe, Arizona. It's geographical spread is roughly: 60% Europe, 30% North America, and 10% Asia-Pacific. STP, based in China, has the following market concentrations: 53% Europe, 5% China, 22% United States, and 20% in the rest of the world.

FSLR has a larger US and North American presence, while both firms have large European presence. The fall in European and US subsidies over the next couple years (or more) will hurt both companies, but likely FSLR more than STP because of Suntech's greater diversification. More importantly, Suntech is going to tap heavily into the China market, expecting 20% of its sales from the region within the next couple of years. This will be a large upside for STP's market reach, and given their size and their Chinese roots, they will likely win out over smaller Chinese firms and equally large foreign firms like First Solar (especially with those Chinese subsidies still coming in). FSLR is improving its global reach, but I don't think it will be able to match STP in this category.

4. Debt Issues

FSLR: Current B+, Long term B+/B
STP: Current C-, Long term B-

STP is completely saddled with debt, and I think at a microeconomic perspective, this is one of their largest problems. They have almost doubled their short term debt from $943 million to $1,669 million YoY, while increasing their long term debt from $674 million to $766 million. This gives them a total debt to equity of 1.47, a current ratio of 0.92, and a debt/total asset ratio of 0.45. Their $768 million is a decent sum but won't be enough to remain financially healthy during a recession or worse, especially when EBIT is hovering near 0 (subtracting the losses from one-time shut down operations). Overall, I think having China as a benefactor will be STP's major get-out-of-jail free card if they ever run into serious trouble. In the long run, these debt problems should alleviate when the global economy hurdles our current debt crises.

FSLR is much less debt-saddled, though debt will likely be a future problem and will continue to be a problem in a demand-deflated environment. First Solar has tripled long term debt from $113 million to over $300 million YoY, while leaving short term debt relatively constant at $28 million. This gives them a much healthier total debt to equity of 0.10, a solid current ratio of 3.10, and a debt/total asset ratio of 0.08. I don't see this category improving much for them if they expect to maintain funding to support expensive efficiency-improving and production scaling development projects, at least in the next 2-3 years.

5. Value

This category is a large win for both firms, as they are both undervalued, but STP much more so than FSLR.

FSLR: P/E of 10.8, P/B of 1.5
STP: P/E of 2.3, P/B of 0.2

The market capilizations of these companies is also significantly different: about $393 million for STP and $5,320 million for FSLR. By looking at the balance sheets of these companies and their long term expectations, I don't see First Solar as worth 14 times more than Suntech Power. This gap is going to make for a large correction in the next year or two. At almost $2 a share, I have to consider Suntech a steal, even given its current woes and near term difficulties. At around $60 a share, I also consider First Solar at a bargain price.

"X factor"

Suntech's X factor is their diversification, geographically and by product. Many investors aren't aware that Suntech has also been pouring money into thin film since 2008, and while some of these projects have been put on hold due to the recession and the more profitable c-Si opportunities, Suntech will still be able to develop a foothold in thin film within the next 4-5 years. Additionally, Shi Zhengrong, STP's CEO, spent years at a thin film research firm before founding Suntech Power. He understands thin film (and knows its potential) very well, as does most of his management team, who have also come from thin film backgrounds. This is why I see Suntech not just as Chinese polysilicon solar but as global PV solar.

For First Solar, their X factor is definitely their intellectual property for thin film. FSLR's IP will be a huge boost during these down times, as firms will struggle to compete if they can't copy the rewarding technologies that FSLR is developing on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Although much of the most important property rights are only covered for the next 3-4 years, if another recession occurs, FSLR could find themselves with much less competition to worry and could profit handsomely

Conclusion:

Buy both STP and FSLR if you can in the near term. Expect declines to continue if the economy worsens, but the more they fall the more they will rise in the long term. If you must pick one, I would opt with Suntech Power. They are losing to First Solar in the short term, but I can only see upside for Suntech Power in the long term.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...h-power-vs-first-solar?source=feed  

Fallende Solaraktien sind zur Normalität geworden. Ein 26-Prozent-Absturz des weltgrößten Herstellers kristalliner Module fällt dennoch aus dem Rahmen. Die genauen Hintergründe für den Crash sind unklar.


Brutaler Absturz der Suntech-Aktie: Das Papier rutschte im gestrigen US-Abendhandel um 26 Prozent auf 1,70 Dollar. Bloomberg erklärt sich diesen größten Preisrutsch der Aktie seit November 2008 mit neuen Regeln der SEC, was das Shorten von Papieren angeht. Das scheint jedoch wohl nur die halbe Wahrheit. Suntech kämpft derzeit mit massiven Branchen-Überkapazitäten und einer nicht besonders soliden Bilanz.

Solar-Analyst Gordon Johson  sagte dem AKTIONÄR bereits Ende August: "Der Solargigant Suntech hat im letzten Quartal über 200 Millionen Dollar verbrannt und immense Lagerbestände ausgewiesen." Er sieht die Firma sogar potenziell gefährdet an, was die langfristige Überlebensfähigkeit betrifft.

Auch Suntech-Chef Shi Zhengrong hatte zuletzt nicht gerade für sonnige Stimmung gesorgt. Er fürchtet einen weiteren Margendruck für die Branche. Auf einer Pressekonferenz sagte er, die hohen Lagerbestände könnten 2012 auf elf GW ansteigen und die Bruttomargen der Hersteller für zwei Jahre belasten.  

Chinas Solaraktien mit Rebound in New York – Das Ende der Verlustserie bei Jinko Solar und Co?



(shareribs.com) New York 04.10.11 - Die chinesischen Solartitel gehören heute an der New Yorker Börse zu den Gewinnern, angeführt von Jinko Solar, Trina Solar und Suntech Power In den vergangenen Monaten wurden die chinesischen Solaraktien an den US Börsen regelrecht verprügelt, nachdem die Investoren realisiert hatten, dass die Gewinnerwartungen in einem schwierigen ökonomischen Umfeld nicht zu erreichen gewesen sind und die Preise rapide eingebrochen sind. Überdies ist gerade in den USA die Skepsis gegenüber chinesischen Aktien im Allgemeinen groß, da die Sino Forest-Affäre das Vertrauen schwer belastet hat.

Dabei erwarten Analysten eigentlich sogar einen leichten Anstieg der Auslieferungen von Solarpanels, insgesamt sollen weltweit Module mit einer Kapazität von 18 GW verkauft werden, 17,4 GW waren es im vergangenen Jahr. Da allerdings weitere rund 3 GW Panels produziert werden und die Preise für die Produkte im Sinkflug sind. Ein Analyst sagte, dass die Preise für Solarprodukte auch im Jahr 2012 weiter sinken werden. So könnten Panels für 1,20 bis 1,50 USD verkauft werden, 2010 waren es noch mehr als 2,0 USD. Wiederverkäufer würden die Produkte für noch weniger als 1,10 USD verkaufen, um diese aus ihren Lagern zu bekommen.

Mittlerweile steigt deshalb auch die Wahrscheinlichkeit von umfangreichen Konsolidierungen im Sektor. Auch könnten traditionelle Energieproduzenten, nach dem Vorbild der französischen Total, ihre vollen Konten nutzen, und sich an profitablen Produzenten beteiligen.

An der Börse geht es heute für die Solartitel nach oben, wobei hier vor allem Schnäppchen-Jäger zugreifen dürften. Die aktuellen Bewertungen machen die Branche attraktiv für all jene, die bisher den Sektor gemieden haben.

Aktien von Suntech Power klettern um 16,5 Prozent auf 1,99 USD, Jinko Solar verbessern sich um 10,8 Prozent auf 5,21 USD, Trina Solar steigen um 7,4 Prozent auf 6,00 USD. Bei Yingli Green Energy geht es um 4,9 Prozent auf 3,00 USD nach oben, JA Solar verteuern sich um 4,6 Prozent auf 1,59 USD und LDK Solar schaffen noch ein Plus von 1,5 Prozent auf 2,75 USD.



Quelle: shareribs.com, Autor  

 

Momentan gibt es offenbar fast alle Aktien für einen Dollar und ich halte den Ausverkauf der Solarwerte für überzogen. Die Branche wird konsolidieren aber sie geht doch nicht ganz unter, oder? Wenn selbst der Aktionär nach jahrelangen Kaufempfehlungen für die chinesischen Solaris jetzt auf die Put-Seite gewechselt hat, dann ist das ein Zeichen für Panik. Wenn Suntech überlebt, dann wird der Kurs aus fundamentalen Gründen sicher nicht im einstelligen Bereich bleiben. Im März 2009 war Suntech Power auf 5 $ gestürzt und hat sich innerhalb kürzester Zeit erholt und mehr als verdoppelt. Jetzt haben wir wieder eine Untertreibung nach unten und ich erwarte bis Weihnachten eine Erholung, die auch die 5 $ wieder knacken wird. Das Tief trifft man nie, aber bei den jetzigen Preisen ist es mit Sicht auf 3-6 Monate egal, ob man 2 Euro, einen Euro oder nur einen Dollar für den Anteil bezahlt. Andererseits gibt es jetzt auch viele andere Schnäppchen, man sollte deshalb nicht zuviel auf einen Einzeltitel setzen. Denn es wird in der nächsten Zeit in der Photovoltaik zahlreiche Pleiten geben, was auf den ganzen Sektor negativ wirken wird. Aber wer überlebt, der hat dann irgendwann ein Momopol zum Modulebau, also die perfekte Gelddruckmaschine. Lg, Francis.  

Wen hat er eigentlich noch nicht in die Sch.... geritten.
Selbst ist der Mann und glaube keinem sogenannten ANALysten.  

Piper Jaffray - Suntech Power Holdings neues Kursziel

09:09 26.10.11

Minneapolis (aktiencheck.de AG) - Ahmar M. Zaman, Analyst von Piper Jaffray, stuft die Aktie von Suntech Power Holdings (Suntech Power Holdings Aktie) unverändert mit "underweight" ein. Das Kursziel werde von 4,00 auf 1,00 USD gesenkt. (Analyse vom 25.10.11) (26.10.2011/ac/a/a)  

Over the coming months, surplus capacity and falling prices will trigger a shakeout in which only the fittest and best-positioned companies, such as First Solar, Solarworld and Suntech Power, will survive. This is the conclusion of the latest sustainability study "Solar industry: Survival of the fittest in a fiercely competitive marketplace", in which Bank Sarasin performs a fitness test on the leading listed photovoltaic (PV) cell and module producers. However, the shakeout will ultimately have a positive impact on the industry as a whole by improving overall growth prospects. New sales markets and additional applications for solar energy will encourage newly installed PV capacity to rise by an annual average rate of 18% to 2015. A shakeout of the solar industry is inevitable as the imbalance between production capacities and demand has become too great with around 50 gigawatts (GW) of production capacity for solar modules compared with sales of 21 GW at the end of this year. Small and uncompetitive companies which are inadequately financed will not survive. In contrast, companies that are internationally diversified and vertically integrated - allowing them to cover several production stages autonomously - have a very good chance of emerging stronger. The companies best positioned for the next stage of growth in the PV market from 2013 onwards include Suntech Power, Trina Solar and Yingli Solar from China, First Solar and Sunpower from the USA and Solarworld from Germany. The companies under the most threat are mainly small to medium-sized companies with comparatively modest growth prospects, such as Germany's Conergy, Q-Cells, Solar-Fabrik and Sunways. PV market forecasts up to 2015 Bank Sarasin predicts newly installed global PV capacity will reach 21GW by the end of 2011. This is equivalent to a growth rate of 3%. In 2012 the PV market will go through a difficult transitional phase, particularly in Europe. In global terms, demand could still increase by 20% in 2012, fuelled by booming markets in the USA, China and Japan. During the period 2010 to 2015 global installations will grow annually by an average of 18%. However, Europe's solar market will shrink by approximately 3% a year during this period. India will see the strongest growth: Bank Sarasin predicts annual growth of 101% for this market. The broader geographic distribution of new installations will intensify even further over the coming years. By 2013 more than 10 PV markets will each achieve an annual installed capacity of 500 megawatts (MW). PV markets will not only become more diversified in geographic terms but also in terms of the different applications for solar installations. The most successful companies in the future will be those who not only sell solar modules but can also develop and offer new products and services. Falling costs will enable solar energy to reach grid parity soon Over the past 10 years, PV has achieved the steepest cost-cutting rate of all forms of renewable energy and is therefore rapidly reaching a competitive price level. In the next few years, solar power will achieve price parity with the end-user tariff in more and more regions. As a result, solar energy will no longer be dependent on national subsidy programmes. Brief description of the three main solar energy technologies Photovoltaics (PV): Converting sunlight into electricity. Solar cells, usually made of silicon, produce an electrical current from sunlight (photoelectric effect), generating electricity which can be stored in batteries or fed into a public grid. Solar collectors: In a thermal solar installation, black or blue-tinted absorbers housed in collectors are heated by the sun's rays. This heat is collected in a storage medium and used to power domestic hot water systems. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP): CSP installations use the heat converted from sunlight to generate electricity. The sun's rays are concentrated by a system of mirrors and the collected energy is used to produce steam. This steam is then used to power a turbine that generates electricity, as in a conventional power station. Thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV): market leaders expand their capacities An industry shakeout is also well under way for manufacturers of TFPV modules. Only about 100 companies are now active in the market compared with 150 in 2010. The top companies are rapidly expanding their capacities. By 2013 all of the top-10 companies will therefore have minimum production capacities of 500 MW each. Economies of scale and a low cost structure, as well as good bankability, are important success factors for thin-film companies. Boosted by large, financially strong corporations such as First Solar, Sharp, ShowaShell, GE and Hanergy as front runners, thin-film technologies should be able to achieve average annual growth rates of 32% up to 2013. CSP plants feel the pressure CSP installations are still expensive compared with PV systems. It is difficult to trim the costs of CSP plants because of the high material and labour costs required in their construction. The most important niche for CSP technology continues to be in hybrid power stations. Their use in combination with gas-fired or coal-fired power stations seems to be very lucrative, especially in the Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America, and saves on fossil fuel costs. Given the tougher competitive situation, CSP capacity is set to grow at a slightly more leisurely rate of around 17% on average over the next 10 years. Bank Sarasin predicts cumulative capacity of 28 GW by 2020.

 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2013-04/01/content_16365600.htm  

Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP), forced to put its Chinese solar unit into bankruptcy last month, began that slide into insolvency in 2009 when customers linked to the founder couldn’t pay their bills and the company booked the sales as revenue anyway, regulatory filings show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news//2013-04-02/...-deadbeat-customers.html  

China Solar: Yingli Green Energy und Suntech Power mit Rebound

(shareribs.com) New York 03.04.13 - Die Aktien der chinesischen Solarproduzenten zeigten sich am Dienstag uneinheitlich. Bei einigen Titeln waren Erholungstendenzen zu beobachten, bei Suntech Power und Yingli Green Energy könnte aber Short Coverage zum Rebound geführt haben.

Vor dem Hintergrund der schlechten Aussichten für die chinesischen Solarunternehmen ist ein Rebound bei Suntech Power und Yingli Green Energy erstaunlich. Jesse Pichel von Pichel Cleantech Advisors sagte, dass es vor dem Hintergrund der Pleite von Suntech Power überraschend sei, dass die Investoren dem Unternehmen derzeit überhaupt noch einen Wert zu sprechen. Suntech Power musste vor wenigen einen Zahlungsausfall bei einer Anleihe melden. ...

http://www.shareribs.com/green-energy/solar/news/...und_id100490.html  

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/...jinkosolar-mit-kapital-aus-046.htm  

Die Aktien der chinesischen Solarproduzenten haben am Montag einen starken Rebound gezeigt, angeführt von Suntech Power nachdem Gerüchte die Runde machten, dass Warren Buffet an einer Übernahme interessiert sein könnte.

Suntech Power geriet im vergangenen Monat ins Gerede, da die Wuxi-Tochter des Unternehmens bankrottging, da man eine Anleihe von 541 Mio. USD nicht ausgezahlt werden konnte. Die Aktie des Unternehmens sackte daraufhin auf ein Allzeittief nach unten

http://www.shareribs.com/green-energy/solar/news/...lly_id100540.html  

http://www.photovoltaik.eu/nachrichten/details/...nsteigen_100010699/  

 

$0.60
*Real-Time - data as of 4/9/2013 9:56:40 AM  

 

 

Hau rein  

Wie geht es weiter, wenn suntech gekauft wird. Was kriegen die aktionaere?  

Alleinunterhalter oder wat ??  

Auch durch Monologe mache ich Profit  

ne ne ne ,...ich lach mich platt.

Du bist einfach der Hammer.  

@minninger. So etwas nehmen die Amis gerne immer etwas länger mit.



Verzeihung der Störung im Monolog.