Der USA Bären-Thread
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...s-and-hedge-funds-bis-says
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...explanation-what-really-happened
Eine Frühwarnung war es allemal.
LTCM (= Long Term Capital Management) war ein riesiger Pleite-Hedgefonds, der 1998 von der Fed mit vielen Milliarden Einsatz gerettet werden musste.
Und jetzt sogar mehr denn je, siehe # 707 - zugleich eine hübsche Boeing-Referenz ;-)).
Das einzige Jahr seit 2008, in dem die Fed dem Markt Liquidität entzogen hatte, war 2018.
Sven Heinrichs Fazit: SELL!
https://northmantrader.com/2019/12/08/sell/
How to assess risk in a risk free world? Stocks are relentlessly bid up like taped bananas on a wall with charts taking on banana like shapes: Inverted, pointing relentlessly north. “Melt-up time” is the theme and sentiment de jour.
Trapped central banks keep carpet bombing markets with liquidity and the ever present trade carrot is dangled on a daily basis especially as soon as markets drop.
We saw some of this this week following an 850 point drop in the $DJIA which immediately prompted renewed trade optimism headlines.
Global risk factors such as mounting corporate debt are ignored as are now steepening yield curves coming from inversion, non confirmation signals such as weakening transports, negative divergences, vast technical extensions, and lack of evidence of accelerating growth.
None have mattered so far as the simple matter of fact is this:
To sum it all up: The world is trapped because economies and growth remain 100% dependent on central banks growing their balance sheets. 2018 was the only year of net reduction in liquidity and it was a disaster.
Die Charts unten zeigen - für den Zeitraum der letzten 30 Jahre - links die sinkenden Zinsen und rechts den steigenden SP-500.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/...-market-will-continue-2019-12-09
...Thorsten Polleit, the chief economist at Swiss metals trader Degussa, explains why he thinks an economic boom will continue, with stock prices also strong.
“As long as there is still room for pushing the market interest rate down further, the chances are reasonably good that the boom continues, and that the bust will be adjourned into the future. As per the charts below, current market interest rates in the U.S. have not reached rock bottom yet. Corporate and mortgage credit costs in particular still have some way to go before hitting zero,” he writes in an article for the Alabama libertarian think tank, the Mises Institute.
(selber link)
...To be sure, Polleit expects a very hard landing. “The severity of the crisis that must be expected to unfold at some point in the future — at the latest when all market interest rates have been pushed onto the zero line and investment returns have become negligible — is driven to ever-higher levels. This is something we do know from the Austrian business cycle theory. But it is certainly not enough to come up with a reliable forecast,” he says.
Paul Volcker, Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Dies at 92
Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who broke the back of U.S. inflation in the 1980s and three decades later led President Barack Obama’s bid to rein in the investment risk-taking of commercial banks, has died. He was 92.
He died Sunday at his home in New York...
Alle Top 10 Werte des Nasdaq Comp Index kommen heute aus dem Biotech-Sektor.
all die oekonomen können noch so lange über die kommende wirtschaftsentwicklung werweisen - wenn die nachfrage nach kupfer gut ist, dann produziert die weltwirtschaft kräftig und das wird sich in den zahlen der kommenden monate positiv auswirken - simpler gehts nicht. darum liebe den dr copper indikator.
Moderation
Zeitpunkt: 10.12.19 17:02
Aktion: Löschung des Beitrages
Kommentar: Moderation auf Wunsch des Verfassers
Zeitpunkt: 10.12.19 17:02
Aktion: Löschung des Beitrages
Kommentar: Moderation auf Wunsch des Verfassers
wawidu: kupferpreis vom freitag in pfund sterling pro pfund in london.
merkste was?
und al, korinthen kommen bei mir ins morgenmüesli und sonst nirgends hin. das ich ein schweizer nörgler bin, wie du letzthin behauptet hast, das mag wohl stimmen. aber diese anspielung mit den korinthen lehne ich entschieden ab. ;-)
doch die diskussion verdeckt die eigentliche message: der kupferpreis ist ein wirklich guter indikator für die kurz- und mittelfristige entwicklung der weltwirtschaft. stimmt die nachfrage nach dem wichtigsten industriemetall, dann laufen die geschäfte. simpler gehts nimmer.