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Ich halte von Analystenmeinungen auch nicht viel. aber wenn´s hilft....
Allen Autoren vielen lieben Dank für die fundamental untermauerten Beiträge.
Leider lese ich von baggo-mh (Forumsgründer) nichts mehr. Is he still on board?
ich bin immer noch vollumfänglich investiert.
Für mich heisst die Maxime: DURCHHALTEN! Es kann nur besser weren. Am 27.07. kommen die HJ Zahlen. Die werden schon nicht so schlecht sein, denke ich.
Zurzeit benötige ich de facvto auch keine Bananen. Du erinnerst dich vielleicht noch.....
Hier jetzt was vom Aktionär:
Ja, stimmt. Ich mag den Schröder auch nicht. Quatscht viel rum und liefert wenig. Ich denke, den muss man als Kontraindikator sehen......
Aber wenn´s hilft.
kind regards @ all
Just as a reminder: back in October as part of the 3Q19 presentation, 30 June was given as kind of a final D-Day/due date for the already now legendary Samsung OLED order (quotes from the 3Q19 CC: „We therefore now expect such order to be placed during first half of 2020.“ & „We have a clear view that this is going to happen throughout the first half of 2020.“) Obviously, this has not happened, but had been flagged already with the 1Q20 results. I.e. no surprise and no disappointment so far. However, I thought I can use this date to share a couple of thoughts and to ask for your feedback.
Don’t see any need to change my view of what I recently outlined here, i.e. am quite confident that the upcoming results do not disappoint (doesn’t necessarily mean that the share price reaction will be positive as outlined in the post):
EUR/USD in 1H2020
Looks OK to me with 1.10 on average in 1H2020 and 1.12 as latest, i.e. still a significant buffer for Aixtron’s guidance which is based on EUR/USD of 1.20.
MDAX in September
Seems we get some voluntary support from Wirecard, i.e. one more slot to be filled in September.
fel mentioned already the recent - good - newsflow, be it IQE, II-VI, Lumentum (showcased on Aixtron’s website), Micron, etc., i.e. from my point of view there is no reason to worry that the secular growth drivers for Aixtron might be at risk for the time being.
Probably the most exciting topic for the rest of the year and something where we should expect newsflow over the coming weeks (at least on 23 July we should get some kind of update from the management). Appreciate any feedback from the board on my thoughts below:
- No order from Samsung
- Timing of news? End of 3Q19, at latest by year-end?
- Aixtron confirms the end of the whole project and tries to find an interested party for the developed IP
- Aixtron guides to significantly reduced R&D cost, e.g. a positive 20 million Euro EBIT impact would lift 2021 EBIT consensus estimates by roughly 40%
- Not sure whether such news could be accompanied by a share buyback program (-> limited by Aixtron AG solo accounts?)
My take: initial share price hit (-10%?) to be expected as OLED potential will be priced out of the stock (of course one might argue that this is hardly priced in). However, I would see this reaction as rather short-lived given the market has finally clarity and due to the significant positive running P&L effect. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the share price to recover from the inital hit over a couple of trading days. Obvioulsy one of the key triggers for the shares would be gone and the other main growth drivers for Aixtron come into effect in 2021 only….i.e. continuation of the flat line share performance for a couple of months might be the result.
- Samsung indeed places the order
- Timing of news? End of 3Q19 or earlier?
- 2020 order entry increases by some 30m (?), revenues benefit by same amount but only in 2021
- Market does not only price in the order entry/revenues in 2020/21, but also to a certain degree the potential for >100 million revenues on a mid-term basis.
My take: I would expect (hope for?) quite a significant share price reaction, e.g. in the +10-20% magnitude.
My gut feeling for the probability for the above scenarios: maybe 60% for scenario 2 and 40% for scenario 1.
My questions to you:
- Do I miss a scenario, is the above nonsense?
- Where do you differ in the assumptions?
- Which probability would you attach to the above scenarios?
Any feedback is highly appreciated! Natürlich auch gerne in deutsch.