Aixtron purpose of this thread


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224 Postings, 4920 Tage fel216Positive read for Aixtron from IQE results

 
  
    #476
3
15.06.20 10:26
Hi, i just wanted to highlight IQE results which bode very well for Aixtron in my view, we also know that IQE is Aixtron customer.

CWL, dlg etc. Please help me understand if the "Wireless Power Amplifiers for 5G handsets" mentioned in the press release is the next leg of growth for Aixtron? I know that since years they are shipping machines for the 5G base station build-out, but does this comment here refer to the 5G actually IN the smartphone? I thought that is the next leg of growth as 5G adoption really increases?

Overall: Strong 5G base station buildout and 3D sensing.

Continued strong 5G base station buildout should mean that Aixtron order intake will very likely remain healthy into Q3 as well (we know that Q2 should be relatively strong as was Q1).

IQE linK: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/iqe/news/rns/story/xe72jyw

Regards,
Fel
 

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1fel216: GaAs vs GaN

 
  
    #477
15.06.20 17:24
Most of the 5G handset use GaAs power amplifiers.  Someday might switch to GaN-on-Si.  The 5G base stations use GaN-on-SiC.  Costs vs performance, etc.  

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL15G: GaAs vs GaN

 
  
    #478
1
15.06.20 17:53

3744 Postings, 2588 Tage dlg....

 
  
    #479
2
18.06.20 11:31
Some misc. stuff for today:

Aixtron client to merge?
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200618PD215.html

Article in „Der Aktionär“
https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/...em-sturm--20202747.html

New notification on shareholders (however, I thought that Artisan had aready reported >3% in April)
https://www.dgap.de/dgap/News/pvr/...iten-verbreitung/?newsID=1353309

Latest MDAX ranking, seems Aixtron might have a chance in September (does Osram need to leave in Sep?)

In MDAX included // MarketCap // Turnover // Combined
RTL // 99 // 80 // 179
Duerr // 100 // 86 // 186
Aareal // 103 // 87 // 190
Dt. Pfandbrief // 110 // 88 // 198

In SDAX included // MarketCap // Turnover // Combined
Talanx // 75 // 100 // 175
Ströer // 77 // 93 // 170
Fielmann // 82 // 102 // 184
Hypoport // 83 // 119 // 202
Ado Prop. // 87 // 104 // 191
Encavis // 91 / 112 // 203
S+T // 92 / 103 // 195
Jenoptik // 93 // 109 // 202
Aixtron // 95 // 80 // 175  

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1Sanan SiC

 
  
    #480
5
18.06.20 13:08
http://www.semi.org.cn/news/news_show.aspx?ID=59584&classid=117

Sanan Optoelectronics' 16 billion overweight third-generation semiconductor
From: Shanghai Securities News

Sanan Optoelectronics disclosed that on June 15, the company and the Changsha High-tech Industrial Development Zone Management Committee signed the "Project Investment and Construction Contract". The company plans to establish a subsidiary in Changsha to invest in the construction of the third generation semiconductor industrial park project, with a total investment of 16 billion yuan .

Sanan Optoelectronics is the largest LED epitaxial wafer and chip manufacturer in China, and is actively expanding its integrated circuit chip business in radio frequency, optical communications, power electronics and other industries.

According to reports, the project is planned to invest in construction including but not limited to the research and development and industrialization of third-generation semiconductors such as silicon carbide and other compounds, including growth-substrate production-epitaxial growth-chip preparation-package industry chain, which will develop, produce and sell 6-inch SIC conductive substrate, 4-inch semi-insulating substrate, SIC diode epitaxy, SiC MOSFET epitaxy, SIC diode epitaxial chip, SiC MOSFET chip, silicon carbide device package diode, silicon carbide device package MOSFET, etc.

The two parties agreed that within 24 months of the completion of the land use procedures and related conditions, Sanan Optoelectronics will complete the construction of the first phase of the project and achieve production, and complete the construction of the second phase of the project and the investment of fixed assets within 48 months and achieve production. 72 Achieve full production within a month.

It is understood that the main downstream direction of the project is the power electronics sector of integrated circuits. Sanan Optoelectronics' 2019 annual report shows that the high power density silicon carbide power diodes and MOSFETs and GaN-on-silicon power devices launched by the company's integrated circuit power electronics products are mainly used in new energy vehicles, charging piles, photovoltaic inverters and other power supply markets In total, there are more than 60 customers and 27 products have entered mass production.  

224 Postings, 4920 Tage fel216Süss Microtech raises Order guidance due to 5G

 
  
    #481
5
22.06.20 17:30
Hi,

Süss Microtec just raised Order intake guidance by handsome 50%, guiding for H1 orders at 155-160m now vs. previously 100-110m - the key driver are investments into 5G roll-out.

Not sure how much of a read-x this is for Aixtron, but sounds like 5G roll-out continues at strengths..

Release here: https://www.suss.com/de/news-detail/adhoc/2020/...22-de-1986353/24817

Regards,
Fel

 

3744 Postings, 2588 Tage dlg....

 
  
    #482
23.06.20 11:14
Some news/rumours on Apple's mini/micro LED ambitions: https://9to5mac.com/2020/06/22/12-9-inch-ipad-pro-2/

Any insights here if Aixtron has a client relationship with LG Displays?  

3744 Postings, 2588 Tage dlg....

 
  
    #483
1
23.06.20 11:53
fel, Der Aktionär picked up your comment on Suess Micro: https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/...rtschuss--20202956.html  

224 Postings, 4920 Tage fel216Nächster Treiber: EV Charging stations

 
  
    #484
3
23.06.20 16:02
Hallo allerseits,

anbei ein interessanter Bloomberg Artikel von heute, der anzeigt, dass auch der nächste Treiber für Aixtron langsam Fahrt aufnimmt: Ladestationen für E-Autos.

Bzw höhere E-Auto Volumen werden natürlich auch den SIC Trend schneller vorantreiben, was sicher das größere Potential birgt. Viele Grüße! Fel

By Laura Millan Lombrana and Rachel Morison
(Bloomberg) -- The electric vehicle sector has been stuck
for years with a chicken-and-egg problem. Until there were
extensive networks of public charging stations, a critical mass
of people would never feel comfortable driving EVs—but until a
critical mass of people were driving EVs, there was no sense in
investing in extensive networks of public charging stations.
It may be the coronavirus pandemic that finally breaks the
stalemate. BloombergNEF’s latest Long-Term Electric Vehicle
Outlook predicts that EVs sales will experience a smaller dip
than traditional auto sales as a result of the broader economic
squeeze, and that they’ll bounce back more quickly once the
market recovers. EVs and the infrastructure needed to charge
them have also been a part of many of the stimulus packages
announced by European and Asian governments. Just in the past
few weeks, Germany included chargers in its €2.5 billion
proposed economic package, and the European Union announced that
it’s aiming to have 1 million public chargers by 2025, from
fewer than 200,000 today.
“There's absolutely a case for vehicle charging
infrastructure to be part of the recovery,” says Matt Allen,
chief executive officer at Pivot Power, a U.K. battery and
charging developer. Fast chargers demand large amounts of power
in one location and the installation is difficult and expensive,
he says. Government investment could help companies clear that
hurdle, create much-needed jobs, and give the economy a further
boost as the EV sector expands.
“It will make smaller, more niche projects more investable
because more EVs driving around mean a bigger customer base,”
Allen says, adding: “We want stimulus, not a long-term crutch
for the industry.”
The key is to get drivers past the so-called anxiety range,
or the fear of running out of battery life and winding up
stranded on the road. Until recently, however, that wasn’t a
challenge anyone particularly wanted to take on, says Javier
Guerra, a managing partner at private equity firm Satif Group
and an early investor in California plug-in venture ChargePoint.
Carmakers had no incentive to build chargers other brands could
profit from (Tesla Inc.’s chargers, for instance, only fit its
own cars and are mainly designed for home use), while utilities,
oil companies, and institutional investors considered the sector
to be too young, too risky, or both.
“When I started to look at [EV charging] back in 2016, very
few people saw the point, and there was little money to be
made,” Guerra says. Since then, the cost of EV batteries has
declined by 43%, according to BNEF, making EVs much more
accessible for the average car-buyer. That, together with
stricter emissions regulations in Europe and China, has
convinced large investors that EVs are poised for a
breakthrough.
Oil companies and utilities especially are well positioned
to dominate the EV charging market. Oil suppliers already
operate strategically located fueling stations for internal
combustion vehicles, and utilities control electricity
production and distribution networks.
“I don’t think there are clear winners yet,” says
Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electric vehicles at BloombergNEF.
“Oil majors invest in EV charging either because they can or
must as it is mandated, and they can afford to hedge on the
future.”
Based on its estimates for EV adoption over the next 20
years, BNEF projects that 12 million public EV charging points
will be needed globally by 2040, up from fewer than 1 million
today. That will require a worldwide investment of about $111
billion.
Oil majors and utilities have rushed into the sector,
starting with Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which bought charging
network NewMotion in 2017; the company now owns or operates
142,000 chargers across Europe, and entered the U.S. market last
year with the purchase of infrastructure and software provider
Greenlots. Rival BP Plc, meanwhile, acquired Chargemaster and
its 7,000 stations for $170 million in 2018.
Utilities see the electrification of transport as a
potential savior. Global electricity consumption is expected to
slow as industries and appliances become more energy efficient,
but EVs could help prop up residential demand.
“As an electric vehicle user you don’t need to go to a
petrol station anymore—you leave your house fully charged. It’s
a completely different concept,” says Luis Buil, global head of
smart mobility at Spain’s Iberdrola SA. “We’re already in the
grid and we can guarantee that the power you charge your car
with is 100% renewable.”
Iberdrola announced in March that it would accelerate plans
to spend 150 million euros ($170 million) on its own fast
charging network. And French utility EDF, which already owned
over 100,000 charging points across Europe through its
subsidiary Izivia, acquired a majority stake in Pod Point in
February, which has more than 69,000 charge points in the U.K.
and Norway.
The holy grail charger for automakers, oil companies, and
utilities doesn’t require a grid connection at all. Shell and
Tesla, among others, are working towards building a mini-power
station with solar panels that can generate and store enough
energy to provide a consistent source of charge. If, or when,
available commercially, it would make electric vehicles and
charging infrastructure fully green.


 

20 Postings, 194 Tage joss.beaumontDZ-Bank hebt Kursziel an....

 
  
    #485
2
25.06.20 17:10

https://www.finanzen.net/analyse/aixtron_se_kaufen-dz_bank_718714


Ich halte von Analystenmeinungen auch nicht viel. aber wenn´s hilft....

Allen Autoren vielen lieben Dank für die fundamental untermauerten Beiträge.

Leider lese ich von baggo-mh (Forumsgründer) nichts mehr. Is he still on board?



á bientôt


Joss

 

224 Postings, 4920 Tage fel216Joss!

 
  
    #486
1
26.06.20 09:10
Joss! Schön, dass Du wieder dabei bist! Alles wieder im Lot? Schmeckt das Aixport noch?
 

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1SiC and GaN update

 
  
    #487
3
26.06.20 12:53
https://compoundsemiconductor.net/article/111503/...iC_And_GaN_Update

It looks like SiC is leading vs GaN. Slight increase (7%) this year, but 25% into 2021.  

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1Vertilite

 
  
    #488
3
26.06.20 13:32
Huawei just invested in Vertilite which I posted about in 02-2019. It is the leading VCSEL manufacturer in China.  You could see Aixtron's machine in its web site.  US bans companies selling to Huawei from using US made equipment without permits.  

https://www.ledinside.com/news/2020/6/huawei_vcsel_vertilite  

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1IIVI SiC

 
  
    #489
4
26.06.20 13:49
https://www.ii-vi.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/II-VI_SiC_202005.pdf

In this Needham presentation last month, the IIVI CEO commented that in order for it to compete with CREE, it needs to expand into selling SiC epi wafers.  The company is planning into this arena in 2021.  The company is second to CREE in selling SiC wafers but no SiC epi wafers just yet.  

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1GLC Update

 
  
    #490
3
26.06.20 20:30
http://www.glcgrp.com/plus/view.php?aid=122

I have posted about this Chinese company before.  It is a 5 billion yuan startup on in 2019.  This 5/12/2020 presentation says it has 3 Aixtron G5's for the initial manufacturing of GaN-on-Si.  The plan is to establish 21 lines.  

20 Postings, 194 Tage joss.beaumontat fel and at all

 
  
    #491
1
29.06.20 22:36

Hi fel,



ich bin immer noch vollumfänglich investiert.

Für mich heisst die Maxime: DURCHHALTEN! Es kann nur besser weren. Am 27.07. kommen die HJ Zahlen. Die werden schon nicht so schlecht sein, denke ich.


Zurzeit benötige ich de facvto auch keine Bananen. Du erinnerst dich vielleicht noch.....


Hier jetzt was vom Aktionär:

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/...=MzUH057hSEev3sU8n0XjZA


Ja, stimmt. Ich mag den Schröder auch nicht. Quatscht viel rum und liefert wenig. Ich denke, den muss man als Kontraindikator sehen......

Aber wenn´s hilft.


kind regards @ all

Joss

 

224 Postings, 4920 Tage fel216Micron sees cont'd good demand in next Q's

 
  
    #492
3
30.06.20 10:20
Hi all,

some interesting and Aixtron relevant comments by US Chip company Micron, last night: They expect continued healthy demand in the Datacenter end-market, driven by Asia; also they see a pickup in Consumer Segment, especially smartphones where they see growth in units 2021 (they just reported Q3-20) driven by 5G adoption.

Automotive is obviously down significantly at the moment, which is only partly relevant for Aixtron - they reported some delays in SIC qualifications at some customers in Q1. While overall interest and demand for Aixtron's SiC Technology remains high.

I continue to believe that we will see a continued high level of order intake in Q2 (around Q1 levels) and with these comments by Micron, we can most likely expect continued Order strengths in H2 with the VCSEL demand starting to recover (from currently low levels/0) in 2021.

Micron presentation: https://investors.micron.com/static-files/...8-4483-aedf-113943e52060

Regards,
Fel  

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1IIVI SiC

 
  
    #493
3
30.06.20 14:31
https://www.ii-vi.com/news/...ices-and-modules-for-power-electronics/

The picture looks like an Aixtron 6" x 8 planetary reactor.  

3744 Postings, 2588 Tage dlg....

 
  
    #494
5
30.06.20 18:44

Just as a reminder: back in October as part of the 3Q19 presentation, 30 June was given as kind of a final D-Day/due date for the already now legendary Samsung OLED order (quotes from the 3Q19 CC: „We therefore now expect such order to be placed during first half of 2020.“ & „We have a clear view that this is going to happen throughout the first half of 2020.“) Obviously, this has not happened, but had been flagged already with the 1Q20 results. I.e. no surprise and no disappointment so far. However, I thought I can use this date to share a couple of thoughts and to ask for your feedback.


2Q Outlook
Don’t see any need to change my view of what I recently outlined here, i.e. am quite confident that the upcoming results do not disappoint (doesn’t necessarily mean that the share price reaction will be positive as outlined in the post):
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...f-this-thread-567236?page=18#jumppos469

EUR/USD in 1H2020
Looks OK to me with 1.10 on average in 1H2020 and 1.12 as latest, i.e. still a significant buffer for Aixtron’s guidance which is based on EUR/USD of 1.20.

MDAX in September
Seems we get some voluntary support from Wirecard, i.e. one more slot to be filled in September.

Other news
fel mentioned already the recent - good - newsflow, be it IQE, II-VI, Lumentum (showcased on Aixtron’s website), Micron, etc., i.e. from my point of view there is no reason to worry that the secular growth drivers for Aixtron might be at risk for the time being.

OLED order 

Probably the most exciting topic for the rest of the year and something where we should expect newsflow over the coming weeks (at least on 23 July we should get some kind of update from the management). Appreciate any feedback from the board on my thoughts below:

Scenario 1
- No order from Samsung
- Timing of news? End of 3Q19, at latest by year-end?
- Aixtron confirms the end of the whole project and tries to find an interested party for the developed IP
- Aixtron guides to significantly reduced R&D cost, e.g. a positive 20 million Euro EBIT impact would lift 2021 EBIT consensus estimates by roughly 40%
- Not sure whether such news could be accompanied by a share buyback program (-> limited by Aixtron AG solo accounts?)

My take: initial share price hit (-10%?) to be expected as OLED potential will be priced out of the stock (of course one might argue that this is hardly priced in). However, I would see this reaction as rather short-lived given the market has finally clarity and due to the significant positive running P&L effect. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the share price to recover from the inital hit over a couple of trading days. Obvioulsy one of the key triggers for the shares would be gone and the other main growth drivers for Aixtron come into effect in 2021 only….i.e. continuation of the flat line share performance for a couple of months might be the result.

Scenario 2
- Samsung indeed places the order
- Timing of news? End of 3Q19 or earlier?
- 2020 order entry increases by some 30m (?), revenues benefit by same amount but only in 2021
- Market does not only price in the order entry/revenues in 2020/21, but also to a certain degree the potential for >100 million revenues on a mid-term basis.

My take: I would expect (hope for?) quite a significant share price reaction, e.g. in the +10-20% magnitude.

My gut feeling for the probability for the above scenarios: maybe 60% for scenario 2 and 40% for scenario 1.

My questions to you:
- Do I miss a scenario, is the above nonsense?
- Where do you differ in the assumptions?
- Which probability would you attach to the above scenarios?

Any feedback is highly appreciated! Natürlich auch gerne in deutsch.

 

224 Postings, 4920 Tage fel216Silicon Carbide

 
  
    #495
1
01.07.20 12:53
Hallo allerseits,

ich weiss, dass wir mittlerweile alle Experten in Silicon Carbide sind, aber nachdem mir ein Freund eben ein Review zum neuen Porsche Tycan (EV!) geschickt hat, muss ich doch diese Artikel hier nochmal kurz teilen.
Beim Lesen der Artikel wird schnell sehr klar, warum dies der absolut spannenste Trend für Aixtron in 2021-24 sein wird. Da wird ordentlich Wachstum kommen, vorrausgesetzt die Technologie erreicht a) den Massenmarkt und b) Aixtron kann weiter neue Kunden gewinnen.

Links:
https://thedriven.io/2019/09/12/...le-benefits-for-electric-vehicles/
https://insideevs.com/news/371247/delphi-800v-sic-inverter/


Viele Grüße,
Fel  

1336 Postings, 4957 Tage rosskatameine 50 ct dazu

 
  
    #496
2
01.07.20 13:09
Erstmal, dlg, vielen Dank dafür, dass du deine Überlegungen mit uns teilst und dir die Zeit nimmst!
Das gleiche gilt ja aber auch an allen anderen hier!
In letzter Zeit kann ich das für mich nicht behaupten..nicht dass ich auch großartig was mitzuteilen hätte.

Ein 3.  Szenario wäre erneutes Aufschieben der Entscheidung seitens des Kunden aus welchen auch immer Gründen.  Wie reagiert Aixtron?
Eine Möglichkeit wäre: ok, wir machen mit, weil wir ein realistisches Szenario sehen, dass das Projekt doch zum erfolgreichen Abschluss kommt, weil z.B. ein Fortschritt eideutig erkennbar ist.
Oder sagt Aixtron: ne, lieber Kunde, ich mach nicht mehr mit. Ade!
An Letzteres  glaube ich nicht. Wenn aufgeshoben wird, dann wird es sicher einen Grund geben, warum man weiter macht. Samsung will auch nicht da resourcen reinstecken, wenn man nicht an den Erfolg glauben würde. Andererseits muß Aixtron genau anschauen, wie die Kosten-Nutzen REchnuing aussieht :)

Dlg, ich glaube die Kosten sind 25 Mio im Jahr (habe so im Kopf aber vielleicht irre ich mich)

Zu dem operativen Geschäft und Aussichten:
Beurteilend nach dem news flow sehe ich zunehmenden Aktivitäten beim Aufbau von supplychains für mini LED als Ersatz für die Hintergrundbeleuchtung, vor allem bei den chinesischen und taiwanesischen Players. Dazu kann sicher auch CWL was sagen. Aber auch bei micro LED tut sich mehr und mehr etwas. Noch dazu kommt die Leistungselektronik mit SiC und GaN. Besondern bei SiC (höhere Spannungen) scheint mir, dass immer mehr chinesische Unternehmen in den Markt rein wollen. Was ist wenn die chinesische Regierung es für strategisch sehr wichtig erachtet, dass die chinesiche Firmen in diesen Feldern ganz vorne mitmischen sollten? Kommen vielleicht Anreize wie damals für den BLU-Markt? (vielleicht zu viel geträumt aber dennoch)  
Das stimmt mich positiv.  
 

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1Just Speculating

 
  
    #497
3
01.07.20 14:04
It is very very interesting that Felix still mentioned Gen 6 in the AGM presentation.  We all think that Samsung's QD-OLED is Gen 8 and higher. So why is Gen 6 still on the table?

It only makes sense to go Gen 6 if FMM is employed.  Gen 6 FMM exists, Gen 8 FMM does not.

Coincidentally, Aixtron has patented an OVPD Chamber that could load two glasses in one chamber with FMM.  So if Samsung loads two gen 6 glasses using FMM at a time for OLED deposition, the productivity would equal one Gen 8 glass.  Two Gen 6 glasses make four 65" TV.  One Gen 8 glass makes three 65" TV with a few extra 35" monitor screens.

If Samsung takes this alternative approach, then QD is not required.  I am only speculating that maybe Aixtron's OVPD has always been an alternative from QD-OLED technology by Samsung to enter the TV market.  Canon Tokki takes the QD-OLED path.

As a result, Samsung could use the same OVPD for both TV and smartphone production.  If that would be the case, Aixtron's OVPD market would be much much bigger than just for QD-OLED.

I understand that this is too drastic of a thought, so don't hold me to it.  

2 Postings, 209 Tage bestfutureSamsung Display puts in QD display equipment in fa

 
  
    #498
1
01.07.20 23:08
Hallo all, especially CWL,
how would you rate the following message?

http://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=1138

Regards,
bestfuture  

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1Too Late for QD-OLED

 
  
    #499
01.07.20 23:44
I saw it also.  It is unlikely that Aixtron's machine can make it to this Gen 8.5 QD-OLED plan.  The Gen 2 has not even been qualified yet.  That is why I suspect the OVPD is on a different path, possibly using FMM.  

797 Postings, 1154 Tage CWL1More words

 
  
    #500
01.07.20 23:53
https://asiatime.co.kr/news/newsview.php?ncode=1065578538239822

Recently, we have finished this and started to set up a full-fledged facility starting with the 8.5th generation evaporator. When the production line setup is completed in the second half of this year, it will start production in earnest after the start-up of each stage from next year .  

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