Aixtron purpose of this thread
For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.
Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.
Thank you
baggo-mh
Optionen
My apologies for the lack of activity here. I will improve.
More important: I remain fully convinced and invested, although the uncertainty from SIC is clearly causing some volatility. The question is if we have to dial back order intake assumptions for H2 and get an update on this/revenue guidance with Q2.. if so, this would see the stock go down another 10% or so I think but then a lot is priced in at the current valuation and share price performance.
Mid-term I remain highly convinced: EVs will recover, driving improved sentiment around SIC (and the entire sub sector including OnSemi, STM, Infineon etc) and GAN will certainly find its ways into data centres (look at Renesas below and what Infineon recently talked about their Datacenter business). Micro LED remains a positive wild card.
The Italy site acquisition also makes STM a very likely large and next customer, but that is just my speculation and I have no incremental evidence for this.
Nevertheless I wanted to share interesting slides from the recent Renesas CMD, in particular on the power side, see slides on the link here. https://www.renesas.com/us/en/document/ppt/...051457451&r=1320481
They are by the way just ramping their first SIC site.. if we are lucky Aixtron might get some incremental orders from this in Q2/Q3 or already had in Q 1 (I remember Management talking about some wins in JP with the Q1 call if I am not mistaken).
Minute 15 onwards. Highly convinced of SIC future and that this is more a short term drag at the moment, not a structural one:
https://qcast.page.link/5ypFbVrzPWCNZLUW6
Regards,
Fel
lit. c) ii) SE Regulation in connection with section 71 para. 1 no.
8 sentence 5; section 186 para. 3 sentence 4; para. 4 sentence
2 German Stock Corporation Act (Aktiengesetz, “AktG”)
- Translation for Convenience Purposes -
The resolution adopted by the Annual General Meeting of 16 May 2018 under Agenda Item 8
provided for an authorization to purchase and use treasury shares. This authorization has not
been used. The authorization is valid until 15 May 2023 and thus will expire before the intended
date on which the Annual General Meeting in 2023 shall be held. For this reason, and to
maintain flexibility regarding the purchase and the use of treasury shares, a new authorization
for the purchase and the use of treasury shares in accordance with section 71 para. 1 no. 8 AktG
with the option to exclude subscription rights, shall be resolved while revoking the already
existing authorization dated 16 May 2018.
At the time of convening the Annual General Meeting, the company holds 1,084,105 treasury
shares.
The proposed resolution on Agenda Item 9 provides that the company, pursuant to section 71
para. 1 no. 8 AktG, be authorized to acquire own shares up until 24 May 2027 of in total 10
percent of the share capital that exists at the time of the adoption of the resolution
1. 50.0% will be used to expand the production capacity of 8-inch gallium nitride wafers (from 10,000 wafers per month as of December 31, 2023 to 70,000 wafers per month in the next five years), purchase and upgrade production equipment and machines, and recruit production personnel....
Outlook is better than the sentiment right now. However, no uptick of the business in short term expected.
To me this translates for Q2: we aim for the lower range of the annual target with confirmation for better outlook for next year. I hope this is already priced in and the stock won't dip.
https://www.ariva.de/news/...-belsst-aixtron-auf-buy-ziel-33-11277545
June 13, 2024
Infineon Technologies has reached a significant milestone by completing the first phase of its 200mm Silicon Carbide (SiC) power fab in Kulim, Malaysia. This achievement marks a crucial step forward in the company's strategic plans for expanding its production capabilities.
With the official opening of the Kulim 3 fab module scheduled for August, Infineon aims to commence SiC production by the end of 2024. The fab's establishment is a key component of a $100 billion initiative by the Malaysian government to enhance chip manufacturing within the country, positioning Malaysia as a prominent player in the global semiconductor industry.
The installation of production tools for the SiC lines is currently underway, with the fab being designed to accommodate the requirements of newer tool types, varying volumes, and evolving structural specifications. This adaptability underscores Infineon's commitment to staying at the forefront of technological advancements and meeting the demands of a dynamic market.
Infineon is set to engage in a competitive battle with Wolfspeed for the distinction of operating the world's largest 200mm fab. While specific details regarding planned capacity remain undisclosed by both companies, the rivalry between Infineon and Wolfspeed adds an element of excitement to the semiconductor landscape, driving innovation and progress within the industry.
Furthermore, the recent approval of funding for the world's inaugural integrated SiC wafer plant and volume fab by ST Microelectronics in Catania, Italy, following the successful installation of a pilot line, signifies a broader trend towards the advancement of SiC technology on a global scale. This development highlights the growing significance of SiC in enabling next-generation electronic devices and systems.
https://hardwarebee.com/electronic-breaking-news/...ase-1-completion/
Another tough day for Aixtron shareholders today on no news, maybe tech is broadly hit after SMA warning and stock -30%? Infineon also down -3% or so.
It just shows the worries/uncertainty around Aixtron after being a darling for the last 2-3 years.. we have an „airpocket“ year with weak SIC orders and GAN probably also having some digestion. The lack of visibility for a bottom in demand is the problem.. we need to see order intake growing again and that will not happen with Q2 given the very high comps base.
BUT I think the majority of this is priced in (I have been arguing that as well when the stock was at € 24) and have been proven wrong. The question is a) will SIC/GAN continue to proliferate? I think yes. Next question is what is the right multiple to pay for 2025 EBIT? Or what is the right multiple to put on a weak 2024 EBIT? I think historically the stock traded at around 20x EBIT , today is at 13.5x 2024 estimates. Even if they are too high (which I doubt) another -10% estimate cut is well priced in here..
Let’s see at which price buyers step back in, I certainly continue to trust in the story, why else should management (that continuesly delivered over the last years) decide to buy a new production site in Italy..
Regards,
Fel
Three American companies, including On Semiconductor, the world's second-largest power semiconductor company, will invest 850 billion won
in South Korea. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced on the 26th (local time) that three American companies, including Semiconductor from Washington DC, Corning, and Pacifico Energy, have decided to invest 610 million US dollars (about 850 billion won) in South Korea during Minister Ahn's visit to the United States.
On Semiconductor, a strong automotive semiconductor company, plans to increase the silicon carbide production equipment at its Bucheon plant through this investment.
https://www.mk.co.kr/cn/economy/11052265
Thursday 27th June 2024
Semiconductor manufacturer Nexperia will invest $200 million to develop the next generation of wide bandgap semiconductors SiC and GaN and to establish production infrastructure at its Hamburg site in Germany.
https://compoundsemiconductor.net/article/119673/...M_in_Hamburg_site
December 02, 2021 at 11:01 am EST
Herzogenrath/Germany, December 2, 2021 - Nexperia, the expert in essential semiconductor, is using AIXTRON SE (FSE: AIXA, ISIN DE000A0WMPJ6) production technology to enter the high performance SiC device market.
https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/iqe-interview-the-geopolitics-of-gan/
----------------
Affected by the recovery of the smartphone market and increased demand for WiFi, VPEC's performance continued to rise. The market expects that the performance in the second half of the new year will be better than that in the first half, and the full-year revenue is expected to exceed last year. As the world's leading manufacturer of gallium arsenide epitaxial crystals, VPEC has recently received orders from epitaxial crystals from Qualcomm power amplifiers (PA), with mass shipments starting from Q2. Together with the PA epitaxy orders from Qorvo, it has completely captured nearly 70% of the PA epitaxy orders for Apple's iPhone 16 series, making it the big winner for Apple's new phones this year.
Chairman Chen Jianliang said that the rise of AI mobile phones will drive the replacement wave of high-end mobile phones. Coupled with the expansion of 5G market penetration and the commercialization of WiFi 7, it will help increase the PA market demand, thereby driving upstream epitaxy demand. As the smartphone market improves, PA customers’ momentum for purchasing orders increases, and the company’s order visibility increases. In addition, the demand for optoelectronics in AI data centers has also driven the expansion of performance, and it is expected that operations will achieve another good performance this year. In the past, iPhone PA orders were mainly supplied by Avago, Qorvo, and Skyworks. This year, Qualcomm became the fourth supplier. Apple WWDC demonstrated a number of enhanced AI applications, and the market expects the iPhone's AI capabilities to stimulate sales and further drive demand in the iPhone supply chain
----------------
WIN is a major foundry of gallium arsenide in the world, with a market share of over 60%. Its customers include Broadcom, Murata, Lumentum, Vanchip, etc.
Because WIN's customers misjudged the industry situation and placed over orders, WIN also actively expanded factories to meet customer demand at that time, resulting in an oversupply of the industry. At present, the inventory has been fully digested. Although the current capacity utilization rate has not yet reached full capacity, it is already better than 2022. It has been significantly improved from less than 30% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2024, the capacity utilization rate rose to 55%, to 60% in the second quarter, and will continue to increase to 65% in the third quarter.
The investors believe that the stable industry trend has turned upward, and the usage of PA units for 5G smart phones and Wi-Fi7 has increased significantly. It coincides with the peak season for US mobile phone customers to stock up, and themes with AI functions are expected to ferment. We are optimistic that the subsequent stocking volume will increase, and the market share that was lost in the past is expected to gradually return to WIN's hands. The investors estimate that WIN's revenue in 2024 is expected to increase by more than 30% annually...
On June 28, according to Korean media reports, STMicroelectronics (ST) will upgrade its silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductor production process from 6 inches to 8 inches starting from the third quarter of next year. The plan aims to increase production and productivity and supply SiC power semiconductors to the market at a competitive price.
Francesco Muggeri, vice president of STMicroelectronics' power discrete and analog products division, said in an interview with reporters recently: "Currently, the mainstream size for producing SiC power semiconductors is 6 inches, but we plan to gradually shift to 8 inches starting from the third quarter of next year."
As wafer size increases, more chips can be produced per wafer, and the production cost of each chip decreases. SiC wafers are gradually changing from 6 inches to 8 inches.
STMicroelectronics plans to transition to 8-inch SiC wafers at its Catania, Italy, fab in the third quarter of next year, followed by its fab in Singapore. The Chinese fab, a joint venture with Sanan Optoelectronics, is expected to start producing 8-inch SiC wafers in the fourth quarter of the same year .
Currently, SiC power semiconductors are in short supply and prices remain high, but this situation is expected to stabilize.
Muzeri said: "The products sold now are from orders placed more than two years ago, and the prices are very high, but the quotations after 2027 are 15-20% lower than now. SiC semiconductors have been priced in to a certain extent."
As for concerns about stagnant growth in the global electric vehicle market, he said there was no big impact. Slower growth in some of the fastest-growing countries, such as Europe, the United States and South Korea, temporarily reduced demand, but did not cause a significant drop in semiconductor demand, he said.
“The number of semiconductors used in automotive production has increased, and demand for SiC power semiconductors remains strong,” said Muzeri. “In the case of electric vehicles, driving range can be increased by 18-20% when using SiC power semiconductors, and the adoption rate of future vehicles is expected to increase from the current 15% to 60%.”
many, many thanks for the very important information.
Unfortunately, I can't give you any more stars.
I found the statements by Rodney Pelzel, CTO of IQE, particularly interesting:
"It is key to our diversification strategy that has two thrusts with power and microLED. Today we manufacture GaN on Silicon in Massachusetts and have recently added two G5 reactors from Aixtron. We also have the original G5 for the group in St Mellon in Wales in a European Space Agency (ESA) program and engaged with imec programs as well."
The Newport magafoundry was put in place for GaAS VCSELs with ten G4 Aixtron and two G5's for GaN coming on line in October. "We are setting up very deliberately to have a very significantly to have a capability in the UK and US to give us global reach."
And otherwise with SiC we are only at the beginning...
Remain fully invested - also due to your information - and have therefore bought in.
Please keep up the good work!
Best regards
Jossy
My initial thoughts:
New guidance (620-660m revs / 22-25% EBIT margin) at the top end equals more or less the current analyst consensus of EUR 657m and 23.9%, i.e. consensus shouldn’t move much on last night’s news. However, there will be some shifts within the sell side research community given the different views: Low end Hauck 630 / UBS 598 vs high end Jefferies 680 / Oddo 675 / DB 687. Given Aixtron still calculates with EUR/USD of 1.15, top end of the new guidance to be expected in my view.
Order entry is good news, in particular that the company expects order entry on a similar level (~180m) in the quarters ahead, which should support the view of a >EUR 700m revenue potential for 2025. Quite funny that Aixtron decided in Q1 to not provide any order entry outlook going forward, just to skip this policy a couple of months later, at least on a qualitative basis ;-)
Btw, I like the corporate communication to release these news so early in the quarter as it takes out a lot of uncertainty/speculation – well done, Aixtron (even if presumably driven by adhoc requirements)! Needless to say that the new mid guidance of EUR 640m is a different message than Aixtron’s “very likely high end of guidance” message in Q1…i.e. indeed there has been a negative development throughout the year. Which, however, does not justify a 50% share price decline in my view.
Your thoughts?
Optionen
I am also positively surprised about the fast rebound of the OI. Having in mind the slow-down in EV I have expected a bounce up not before start of next year. It seems that we end up with a short lasting weekness in the OI. however, this makes think that the ongoing ramp-up of the manufacturers in power electr. could inevitable lead to an oversupply in the next few years, if EV remains low.
Also, the dominant position of power el. in the OI reduces the diversification which is not good. It looks like optoel. is to slow down.
As to the stock price: nice rebound today. Nonetheless, I am not sure we will see prices 30+ in the next couple of months but who knows. Hopefully, the region around 20 will now become a solid base.