Aixtron purpose of this thread


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1170 Postings, 3665 Tage baggo-mhAixtron purpose of this thread

 
  
    #1
12
10.01.20 16:19

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

 
365 Postings ausgeblendet.
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741 Postings, 1026 Tage CWL1L8 line

 
  
    #367
1
08.03.20 00:50
https://www.oled-a.org/...rive-as-lcd-capex-falls-to-zero_121519.html

"As Samsung Display converts a Gen 8.5 LCD line to a new quantum dot/OLED configuration.  While some of the LCD equipment can be used in the QD/OLED process, SDC faces the question of starting from scratch with all new tools, or trying to incorporate some of the existing equipment.  The production line involved is the L8-1 P1 line that began production in late 2007, and while we doubt much of the original equipment is still in use, SDC has the opportunity to upgrade some of the more typical equipment that would be common to the new process.  That said, bean counter at SDC are not going to allow engineers to just toss the old tools, despite the fact that they are likely fully depreciated, so SDC has been in talks with other panel producers who might want to buy the existing tools.

From the standpoint of a buyer, the most logical scenario would be to buy the entire line and therefore not have to purchase one-off tools, and while SDC contemplated keeping some, it seems they have agreed to sell the entire line en masse, which likely attracted more potential buyers and gives SDC the opportunity to purchase the most updated versions of tools for the QD/OLED line.  The L8-1 P1 line has a raw capacity of 80,000 sheets/month, which is substantial enough to be a standalone fab or as an addition to a large LCD complex."

 

188 Postings, 4792 Tage fel216Puh...

 
  
    #368
09.03.20 09:23
Puh, jetzt kommt hier aber wirklich auch alles zusammen... Corona, dann Öl, obwohl letzteres eher ein politisches Thema ist. Aber jetzt gibt es alles im Ausverkauf. Mal sehen wo und wann wir in den nächsten Wochen den Boden finden.

Grüße und ein cooles Köpfchen,
Fel  

2370 Postings, 964 Tage BigBen 86Wechselkurs

 
  
    #369
09.03.20 12:21
Da hat Aixtron wohl in weiser Voraussicht Spielraum beim Wechselkurs EUR / USD in der Jahresprognose gelassen. Seit den Q Zahlen im Februar hat der Euro viel Boden gegenüber dem USD gut gemacht ...  

4283 Postings, 1451 Tage köln64@ fel216

 
  
    #370
09.03.20 15:43
kannst du dich noch erinnern, als auf der münchener sicherheitskonferenz der us aussenminister in absoluter selbstsicherheit sagte " wir werden gewinnen " ??
den rest von verschwörungstheorien lasse ich mal. man kann trumps ziel mit einfügen und den fakt das die amis über leichen gehen.
 

210 Postings, 811 Tage ThompsLVs

 
  
    #371
10.03.20 17:06
Die Shortseller von AHL Partners LLP haben ihre Leerverkauf-Aktivitäten in den Aktien des Aachener Herstellers von LED-Produktionsanlagen AIXTRON SE (ISIN: DE000A0WMPJ6, WKN: A0WMPJ, Ticker-Symbol: AIXA, Nasdaq OTC-Symbol: AIXXF) spürbar abgebaut.
Die Finanzprofis der zur Man Group plc gehörenden AHL Partners LLP mit Sitz in London haben am 06.03.2020 ihre Shortposition in den AIXTRON SE-Aktien von 0,66% auf 0,58% gesenkt.
Aktuell halten die Leerverkäufer der Hedgefonds folgende Netto-Leerverkaufspositionen in den AIXTRON SE-Aktien:
5,86% CPMG, Inc. (11.02.2019)
1,76% Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (18.12.2019)
1,55% Pennant Windward Master Fund LP (29.10.2012)
0,60% Algert Global LLC (02.08.2016)
0,59% HBK Investments L.P. (02.03.2020)
0,59% PDT Partners, LLC (04.12.2019)
0,58% AHL Partners LLP (06.03.2020)
0,58% Columbus Circle Investors (02.05.2014)
0,57% Barrington Wilshire LLC (12.08.2013)
Damit summieren sich die Netto-Leerverkaufspositionen der Leerverkäufer der Hedgefonds derzeit auf mindestens 12,08% der AIXTRON-Aktien. Quoten unter 0,50% werden in unserer Berichterstattung als nicht meldepflichtig nicht berücksichtigt.  

210 Postings, 811 Tage ThompsLVs

 
  
    #372
10.03.20 17:08
Mit dem Virus lässt sich gut Geld verdienen! Kein Squeezeout, sondern in der Krise langsam und mit Riesengewinn reduzieren. Jetzt verstehe ich deren Geschäft immer besser...;-)  

188 Postings, 4792 Tage fel216End-Markt Update-weak Q1, structural growth after

 
  
    #373
8
10.03.20 17:45
Hi all (in english to make it easier for CWL who can most likely add more to this topic),

after some busy days I have been reading up on the Q4 conf call transcript and read some research on ST Micro as well (see below) and wanted to share my updated end-market analysis which is key to Aixtron's mid-term growth potential. Please add/comment on the below!

1. VCSEL: Capacity utilisation at customers has improved vs. 2018/19 levels and initial discussions about potential future orders. I expect orders to return in H2-20, depending on the negative Corona etc. impacts on the supply chain. So this end-market is improving somewhat vs. 2019.
2. SIC: This market remains in ramp-up phase with more customer wins for Aixtron and first orders. We are not at volume ramp up yet though, so estimate around 10-20m in revenue/quarter potentially ramping further in 2021/22 as EV programs kick-off (example at VW). So so far a small market, in its early but gradual growth phase. Main driver are EV's.
3. GAN: The biggest surprise to me from the call. This is clearly moving into a focussed R&D stage at customers. ST Micro has done an acquisition here and they seem to be innovation leaders (as in SIC) and will add production capacity over 2020/21. This end market is in earlier stages then SIC (probably 2-3 years earlier) and clearly moving into a small production stage, before really moving into volume production probably in 2022/23. In the call Aixtron says that "there is much much more to come" and see "double digit fraction of our number in 2021/22" which I assume means a double digit % of our revenue number. I would be a bit cautious and expect this only to occur for GAN in 2022/23. Main driver here is 5G adoption in Smartphones.
4. Mini/Micro LED: This market is also moving in the right direction, with some shipments already happened in Q4. We are clearly at the point where application for Mini/Micro LEDs for TVs should be moving from low volume, very high end applications (e.g. Samsung  The Wall) to higher volume, high price TV applications (although this will still take some years I assume) and Wearables (i am waiting for the next Apple Watch application). In the call Aixtron said "applications for both and we see orders this year and revenue this year both increasing over the past, simply because the move from R&D to feasibility of high volume production". My take is that we are in feasibility for high volume production with the next step being high vol production. Timeline probably 2020-22.
5. OVPD/APEVA: This is very clearly on track. Order expected in 2020, some revenue will be booked in 2020 according to Percentage of Completion Accounting. In the call they say "first of all let me mention that we are confident to get the thing up and running no to give the wrong connotations". As in past calls they also continue to mention the "high customer interest". To me, this project has a 95% likelihood, the question is when the follow-up order worth about 120m € comes in, most likely in H2-2021/H1-2022.

Also note that the Aftermarket business has grown steadily over the last years. There the guidance for 2020 looks quite conservative to me (again).

So summing it all up, the outlook for end-markets really remains solid with VCSEL, SIC and Mini/Micro LED the biggest near-term options plus the OVPD project.

Nevertheless I expect Q1 to be a weaker revenue quarter, given the weaker order intake in Q3-19. If that happens, it will present another nice buying opportunity in my view, so i am still treading cautiously on the stock until Q1 is out of the way. But the structural outlook,  as highlighted above is STRONG (e.g. predictable revenue growth in a highly volatile and uncertain world).

Here is the ST Micro newsflow (I personally think about buying some shares there as well but have not decided yet):
STMicroelectronics to Acquire Majority Stake in Gallium Nitride innovator Exagan
“ST has built strong momentum in silicon carbide and is now expanding in another very promising compound material, gallium nitride, to drive adoption of the power products based on GaN by customers across the automotive, industrial and consumer markets” said Jean-Marc Chery, President and CEO of STMicroelectronics. “The acquisition of a majority stake in Exagan is another step forward in strengthening our global technology leadership in power semiconductors and our long-term GaN roadmap, ecosystem and business. It comes in addition to ongoing developments with CEA-Leti in Tours, France, and the recently-announced collaboration with TSMC.”
https://investors.st.com/news-releases/...r_news_date_value%5Bmin%5D=

Here is a broker statement on that acquisition:
Where is STM on GaN now? Trying to replicate SiC success. STM has a production
line for RF GaN in its Catania (Italy) fab with 150mm wafer volume ramp likely by 2020
end followed by expanding into 200mm wafers starting from 2021. It also has a pilot line
for GaN Power in its Tours (France) fab with volume production likely from 2021. STM is
trying to replicate the success it had with SiC (sales to grow from virtually nothing in 2017
to $300mn+ in 2020E) to now GaN as well by forging partnerships and adding
manufacturing presence in what remains a nascent market. Out of $1.5bn of capex budget
for 2020, STM has set aside $0.4bn for strategic initiatives like SiC, GaN and Imaging.

Regards,
Fel


 

741 Postings, 1026 Tage CWL1@fel216

 
  
    #374
1
10.03.20 19:24
Thank you for nice summary.  The article below highlights your item 4 on mini/micro LED.

Notably, Playnitrid is to hike monthly production from 1000 to 10,000 six inch wafers per  month, a 10X ramp.  If one G5 produces 500 six inch wafers a month (two runs a day, 8x2x30=480), then about 20 MOCVD's would be required.  My guess is that Playntirde had a few MOCVD's during the initial phase in 2019.  If the news is true, then PlayNitrIde has to be buying many more from Aixtron as we speak.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200309PD204.html

Samsung may launch micro LED TVs in 2H20
Siu Han, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES Monday 9 March 2020
Samsung Electronics plans to partner with Taiwan-based LED epitaxial wafer and chip maker Epistar for supply of micro LED chips, signaling that it is likely to launch micro LED TVs in the second half of 2020, industry sources cited South Korea-based media reports as indicating.

Epistar is a shareholder of Taiwan-based PlayNitride, currently the exclusive micro LED chip supplier for Samsung. Epistar is expected to work with PalyNitride to supply micro LED chips for Samsung rather than do it alone, the sources said.

Starting trial production in third-quarter 2019, PlayNitride began producing over 1,000 6-inch micro LED wafers monthly in fourth-quarter 2019, and will hike monthly output to 10,000 wafers in 2020, the sources noted.

China-based Sanan Optoelectronics in 2018 supplied quasi micro LED chips for Samsung to produce the Wall, the modularized 146-inch display. Sanan has reportedly developed 30- x 30-micron micro LED chips, and is expected to become the second supplier for Samsung, the sources indicated.

Sanan's subsidiary Xiamen Sanan Integrated Circuit and China-based flat panel maker China Star Optoelectronics Technology (CSOT) will set up a joint-venture lab for developing micro LED materials, manufacturing process and equipment with initial investment of CNY300 million (US$42.9 million), respectively to hold 45% and 55% stakes.  

741 Postings, 1026 Tage CWL1Summary of 2019

 
  
    #375
4
10.03.20 20:18
This chart summarizes Aixtron's three segments based on Aixtron's presentation.  Equipment only.  
A few key takeaways:

1. The Power has more than doubled from the previous Q's.  SiC and GaN are coming.
2. LED is still a steady business. It grew steadily from 2018. It grew every Q from last year's Q.
3. Opto dropped about 40% from 2018.  Thanks to Power and LED to keep the total sales flat.

All three segments should see sizable growth from 2019.  Aixtron's 2020 guidance of 280m is conservative because of the virus.  The equipment sales (80%) including OVPD would be 224m, compared to 208m in 2019.  If OVPD generates 10-20m, that implies the MOCVD sales would be lower to flat in 2020 vs 2019.  That is unlikely IMO.  China's daily coronavirus cases have drooped to 10-20 a day.  That means the threat is pretty much over there, and the speed of ramping up their MOCVD would only accelerate.  China recovering ahead of everyone else by a few months is actually its golden opportunity to move ahead.  
 
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3068 Postings, 2460 Tage dlg.uiuiui

 
  
    #376
1
11.03.20 12:04
CPMG bewegt sich und hat zum ersten mal angefangen, seinen Short zu covern...von 5,86% auf 5,75% - mon dieu! :-)  

188 Postings, 4792 Tage fel216Spannend @dlg!

 
  
    #377
1
11.03.20 13:54
Super gesichtet und gemeldet DLG! Allerdings sehr spannend... ich hoffe nur, dass sie den Großteil der Position erst in H2 abbauen, wenn die Aktie eh wieder steigt.. wir brauchen vorher nochmal ne größere Einstiegsgelegenheit und dann einen squeeze :-)

Bitte halt da weiter ein Auge drauf !

Wo ist Joss Beau unser Bananen Mann ?? Zuviel Aixport konsumiert, oder fastet er Arriva Forum ?  

4283 Postings, 1451 Tage köln64NTV

 
  
    #378
12.03.20 12:28
China meldet pandemie spitze überschritten.  rückgang der invizierten.  hoffe die show ist in 6 wochen vorbei.
bitte keine guten news von aixtron jetzt, die sollen sich nach dem chaos erstmal schön eindecken.  

8562 Postings, 5915 Tage WalesharkAlso Köln64, wenn du dich...

 
  
    #379
1
12.03.20 12:43
auf chinesische Aussagen verläßt, dann bist du verlassen.  Alle wollen ( verständlicher Weise )
das Volk beruhigen und  Optimismus verbreiten. Aber das ist noch lange nicht durch.  

4283 Postings, 1451 Tage köln64@ Waleshark

 
  
    #380
12.03.20 19:52
verlassen tu ich mich darauf nicht. die offiziellen zahlen spiegeln nicht die realtät wieder. der virus ist  soweit ausgebreitet das es sowieso keiner mehr in den griff bekommt.
aber hysterie und panik sind ein schlechter ratgeber.
positive manipulationen werden wohl bald ein mittel werden um etwas ruhe in's geschehen zu bringen.

 

188 Postings, 4792 Tage fel216CMPG auf 5.2% reduziert ?

 
  
    #381
13.03.20 10:56
Laut Bloomberg hat CMPG seinen Short auf -5.2% reduziert. Kannst du das bestätigen dlg ?  

2370 Postings, 964 Tage BigBen 86@fel

 
  
    #382
13.03.20 12:57
Schau doch selber im Bundesanzeiger nach ... kein Hexenwerk ...

CPMG, Inc. AIXTRON SE DE000A0WMPJ6 5,20 % 2020-03-12  

741 Postings, 1026 Tage CWL1Some Hope

 
  
    #383
3
18.03.20 21:58
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/...may-get-fda-nod-very-soon-piper-says

Gilead’s Covid-19 Drug May Get FDA Nod ‘Very Soon,’ Piper Says
March 18, 2020, 3:29 PM

Gilead’s treatment for the novel coronavirus “could be approved for Covid-19 very soon,” a Piper Sandler analyst said, after what he called “highly encouraging” data in 200 patients for a similar medicine developed by Fujifilm.

“We now believe the remdesivir clinical trial results are likely to be positive,” analyst Tyler Van Buren said of neutral-rated Gilead’s experimental medicine
“If successful, it could be approved for broad use in the coming months considering it’s safe, the bar for efficacy in the context of the ongoing global pandemic is low,” he said
NOTE: March 5, Gilead Analyst Sees Only 50% Chance That...

 

741 Postings, 1026 Tage CWL1Just announced

 
  
    #384
1
19.03.20 16:48
in the press conference by Trump that the Gilead drug is soon to be approved by FDA along with another one.  

3068 Postings, 2460 Tage dlg....

 
  
    #385
19.03.20 18:25
Interesting moves today...Aixtron -7% (despite EUR/USD at 1.06x and CPMG covering), while Veeco +15% and Cree +10%. What did I miss?  

3 Postings, 66 Tage joss.beaumont@fel216:

 
  
    #386
19.03.20 21:38

I´m still alive!

Musste nur eine größere Menge Bananen ranschaffen wie geplant. Des Weiteren bin ich gezwungen die Vögel noch etwas "nachzubearbeiten"...
Denn die Krümmung der gelben Südfrüchte geht nicht ganz mit dem AIX-Kurs konform....

You know, what i mean.

Insofern bemühe ich mich, allabendlich eine der gelben Kameraden schön lecker quer in mein weit aufgerissenes Mäulchen zu verbringen - fast schon montieren - um durch das hierdurch erzwungene Lachen meine durchaus gedrückte Grundstimmung ein wenig aufzuhellen.....
Ja, ich weiss mein Freund, man könnte hierfür auch Upper nehmen. Lass ich aber besser bleiben....

Wollen wir hoffen dass, wie CWL1 schreibt, in kürzester Zeit ein geeigneter Impfstoff geg.  SARS CoV 2 zur Verfügung stehen wird um einen schweren Krankheitsverlauf resp. erhöhte Morbidität gezielt zu vermeiden.

Ich bin nach wie vor bei AIX investiert und kann in Ruhe warten. Mit einem weiter fallendem Kurs könnte AIX leider erneut zu einem Übernahmekandidaten mutieren. Das wäre natürlich für alle Investierten nicht unbedingt erstrebenswert. Denn das Übernahmeangebot wäre zurzeit sicherlich nicht sonderlich attraktiv. Dennoch ist schlussendlich  jeder selbst dafür verantwortlich, seine Entscheidung diesbezüglich zu treffen.

Bleibt alle gesund!

à plus


Joss

 

4283 Postings, 1451 Tage köln64Frage....

 
  
    #387
20.03.20 10:16
Gibt es was neues von Samsung bezüglich QD-Oled  ?  

741 Postings, 1026 Tage CWL1No Stopping

 
  
    #388
2
20.03.20 13:29
Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong said on this day, "It's difficult due to unexpected variables, but we shouldn't stop for a while. Let's be cautious but boldly go beyond the existing framework. We need wisdom to look after the crisis. Let's continue the challenge without shaking."

http://www.thelec.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=5382  

4283 Postings, 1451 Tage köln64Fernab von Aixtron....

 
  
    #389
5
25.03.20 10:08
diese krise macht mich doch sehr nachdenklich. die erde scheint einen denkzettel zu senden. wie so oft in der vergangenheit wenn der mensch übertrieben hat.
sollten wir diesen erkennen und mit 2 blauen augen davon kommen, dann steht uns vielleicht ein gesellschaftlicher und industrieller umbau bevor.
Ich habe mir selber die frage gestellt ob ich früchte aus peru im supermarkt brauche, blink blink schlüsselanhänger aus taiwan, alle 2 jahre ein neues smartphone, billig waren aus china usw..... usw.
ein leben am konsum limet in einer immer fragileren gesellschaft.
hat uns das eigendlich glücklicher gemacht? ich finde nein.
ich denke das es viele diskusionen nach der krise geben wird.
alte industrie branchen werden wohl schneller verschwinden als wie geplant,  andere werden in einer langen stagnation ausharren müssen.
wahrscheinlich kommt es zu einer starken digitalisierungs beschleunigung.  
wir stehen am abgrund unseres finanzsystems.  wir stehen aber auch am anfang eines neuen marktes, in dem hightec und greentec zu hohen ehren kommen könnten.  ähnlich wie damals die dotcom sache.
die welt wird sich verändern, da bin ich mir sehr sehr sicher.  

741 Postings, 1026 Tage CWL1Daily Cases Update

 
  
    #390
2
26.03.20 10:27
Last three days Italy has moderated a little.  Spain has gotten worse.  
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741 Postings, 1026 Tage CWL1Lockdown Dates

 
  
    #391
26.03.20 13:44
Italy: 3/9
Spain: 3/14
France: 3/17
Germany:?

If the peak in Italy on 3/21 is real, that is ~2 weeks from the lockdown.  China's Wuhan lockdown was on 1/20 and the peak occurred on 2/4.
 

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