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Unterschiedliche Szenarien betrachtet:
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/...e-silicon-carbide-wafer-market
Unter dem Strich aber:
The SiC industry is proactively addressing the new demand stemming from growth in EVs, even though uncertainty abounds about how it will evolve. No matter what scenario materializes, demand for SiC wafers will continue to grow and remain robust. Simultaneously, competition will intensify for technology, quality, and price leadership, with wafer suppliers continuing to make massive investments in improvements. Incumbents face competition from emerging companies and will benefit from ensuring that the shift to 200-mm technology delivers the expected cost advantages to maintain their technology leadership. Meanwhile, emerging suppliers must focus on iterative learning to close the technology leadership gap against incumbents. For all industry stakeholders, the next few years will be a challenging but exciting time to capture opportunities.
The downgrade comes in response to several headwinds identified by the analysts, including a slower global electric vehicle (EV) sales forecast for the second half of 2024 and the full year of 2025, increased silicon carbide (SiC) supply from China, and anticipated reductions in SiC pricing.
Mizuho highlighted a significant slowdown in the EV market, with growth expectations for 2024 falling to an estimated 6% year-over-year increase, down from previous estimates of 33%. The forecast for 2025 has also been reduced, with EV sales now expected to grow by only about 10% year-over-year, well below the previous forecast of 40%.
Analysts also pointed out the increasing competition from China in the SiC market, with Chinese suppliers expected to ramp up production by 50-100% year-over-year in 2025, potentially leading to oversupply.
This, coupled with lower pricing from Chinese competitors, is expected to exert further pressure on SiC pricing and margins. Notably, Wolfspeed's position as the sole supplier of 200mm SiC wafers is being challenged as other companies, including Coherent (NYSE:COHR) and China's Sanan Optoelectronics Co Ltd (SS:600703), enter the market.
“We believe China SiC substrates are now priced at ~30-50% discount to WOLF SiC substrates,” Mizuho analysts said. “The increasing China competition, and China's push to source domestically remain a challenge.”
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Mizuho's revised estimates place Wolfspeed's revenue and gross margins for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 significantly below consensus, with reductions of 6% and 10% in revenue and 195 basis points (bps) and 204 bps in gross margins, respectively.
The firm also cited concerns over Wolfspeed's balance sheet, with a high net debt-to-sales ratio of approximately 6.3 times and negative free cash flow projected through fiscal year 2027.
In terms of valuation, Mizuho's new price target of $8 for Wolfspeed is based on 5.2x the firm's estimated fiscal year 2026 enterprise value-to-sales ratio. This valuation is considered overvalued compared to the peer group average of approximately 2.7x.
For the long-term, Mizuho acknowledged potential long-term tailwinds for WOLF from fab rationalization and the introduction of new lower-cost and 800V EV models.