Öl: Eine spannende Sache !
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| Eröffnet am: | 16.01.05 15:06 | von: lancerevo7 | Anzahl Beiträge: | 8 |
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Die Entscheidung steht unmittelbar bevor.
Die Kursentwicklung beim Rohöl gibt technischen Analysten harte Nüsse zu knacken. Es haben sich Fehlsignale aneinander gereiht. Dem scharfen Anstieg von ca. 32 USD Ende Juni 2004 bis auf über 52 USD pro Barrel Ende Oktober 2004, folgte ein noch schnellerer Absturz bis Mitte Dezember vergangenen Jahres auf 35,83 USD. Das 61%-Retracement der vorherigen Aufwärtsbewegung wurde dabei unterschritten und gleichzeitig eine große Schulter-Kopf-Schulter-Formation bestätigt.
Der Kursverlauf hielt sich jedoch nicht an diese "Regel" und drehte wieder dynamisch nach oben ab. Kurioserweise hat sich hierdurch eine erneute, jedoch inverse SKS-Formation ausgebildet, die bei einem nachhaltigen Überschreiten der Nackenlinie von aktuell ca. 45 USD bestätigt würde. Das Kursziel würde dann 54 USD betragen. Die Entscheidung über den weiteren Verlauf steht somit unmittelbar bevor.
Im Wochenchart ist die obere SKS ersichtlich, deren getriggertes und theoretisches Kursziel von 26 USD noch aussteht. Die technische Situation ist widersprüchlich und eine Aussage über den weiteren Verlauf ist schwierig, da zwei "extreme" und gegensätzliche Kursziele im Raum stehen.
Ist der Bullenmarkt zu Ende? Drohen in 2005 massive Kurseinbrüche? Meine Antworten werden Sie überraschen. Die ausführliche Jahresprognose zu den Aktien-, Devisen- und Rentenmärkten können Sie sich >>hier kostenlos anfordern<< (einfach anklicken).
Rohöl Brent Tageschart
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Rohöl Brent Wochenchart
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Fazit
Die sich aus den gängigen technischen Verfahren ergebenen Kursziele betragen 26 USD bzw. 54 USD. Der weitere Verlauf sollte daher sehr volatil bleiben. Dem Bereich um die 45 USD kommt eine entscheidende Bedeutung zu. An dieser Marke wird sich herausstellen, welches theoretische Kursziel eintreffen wird.
Quelle: Grüner-VM
Associated Press
Oil Futures Jump Above $48 a Barrel
Friday January 21, 2:26 pm ET
By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Oil futures jumped more than a dollar to above $48 per barrel on Friday as OPEC forecast increased demand for its crude in the first half of the year.
Analysts said prices also were being supported by anxieties over elections in Iraq on Jan. 30 and the meeting on the same day of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
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Crude futures are well below the October peak above $55 a barrel, but prices are about 40 percent higher than a year ago due to strong global demand, temporary output snags and fears that geopolitical strife could further threaten supplies.
John Kilduff, senior energy analyst at Fimat USA in New York, said it is possible that oil prices will soon break through the $50 a barrel level again, though it would probably require some really cold weather to drive up home heating demand or a significant worsening of the security situation in Iraq.
"It's going to be difficult to break above $50 or break below $40," Kilduff said. The last time Nymex oil futures settled below $40 a barrel was July 13. The last time they settled above $50 was on Nov. 3.
Brent crude was up $1.21 cents at $45.53 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange.
OPEC, citing supply problems from non-OPEC countries and continued strength from China's economy, on Friday forecast demand from member countries for the first quarter at 28.56 million barrels a day -- up by 390,000 barrels -- and 27.68 million barrels a day for the second quarter, an increase of 540,000 barrels.
Prices had been pushed lower in previous days by expected milder temperatures in North America, the key market for heating oil, and increases in supplies for the U.S. market.
The U.S. Department of Energy reported Wednesday that the nation's inventory of crude oil rose by 3.4 million barrels last week to 292.2 million barrels, about 8 percent above year-ago levels. The U.S. supply of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil, diesel and jet fuel, rose by 800,000 barrels to 123.8 million barrels, or 5 percent below year-ago levels.
Oil prices briefly pushed to their highest point in seven weeks Tuesday, hitting $49.50 per barrel in intraday trading on the Nymex, after the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for expected daily demand for crude in 2005 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.4 million barrels.
Traders said there would be an increasing focus on likely developments at the OPEC meeting. The group agreed in December to trim production by 1 million barrels a day starting this month to bring output closer to its self-imposed target of 27 million barrels a day.
Firm prices reduce the likelihood of cuts, but analysts said even the slight possibility of such a move could affect markets.
"There is probably some feeling that the OPEC meeting is a week away from this Sunday and the potential for them to cut production is there," said oil price strategist Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank in London.
Prices are also being held firm "by the uncertainties in Iraq with the election coming up," he said.
Attacks -- including those on oil pipelines and storage facilities -- have surged in the run-up to the elections, which insurgents have vowed to disrupt.
Also on Friday, Norwegian regulators rejected Statoil ASA's plan to resume full production from a North Sea field nearly two months after a gas leak shut it down. The Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority has given Statoil permission to resume 50 percent of the production, or about 100,000 barrels per day.
Norway is the world's third-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia with production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day.
AP Business Writer Brad Foss in Washington contributed to this report.
