Aixtron purpose of this thread

Link! hat aktien von Aixtron am 5.5.2022 gekauft, das ist ein gutes Zeichen. Ich bleibe am Ball  

und hier der Link zum Link Kauf von 3 K Aixtron  

https://www.dgap.de/dgap/News/directors_dealings/...m/?newsID=1571599

 

Hi all,

ST Micro held an investor day this week. Strong strong strong focus on SIC (targets accelerated) and GAN. I didnt listen but scrolled through the slides.
Confirms that Aixtron is witnessing the ramp-up in volume orders this year and next.

Check out the slides yourselves and please add quaified comments. But I think the message is clear: Automotive and Industrial electrification are the biggest drivers for STM over the next 2-3 years and this is driven by SIC and GAN roll-out and expansion.
Various details and the expansion plans in the slides (incl. 300mm manufacturing etc).

100% in-line with Aixtron Management comments in the Q1 call.

Links:
https://cmd.st.com/presentation
https://cmd.st.com/static-files/d298eedd-f859-401c-94e6-aa97d3ff357e
https://cmd.st.com/static-files/cfae6415-e89b-4984-8638-666a23ec234e
https://cmd.st.com/static-files/a028e35e-1f63-45d1-a0eb-c3929fe4374b

Regards!
Fel  

Slide 10 of the fourth link shows a picture of Aixtron's G5.  

Ich bin mir ein bisschen unsicher, ob die Aixtron nach der Dividenausschüttung oben bleib. Kann mich einer in Ruhe halten???
 

HV 25.5.2022

Felix klingt sehr zuversichtlich und kompetent

Power
sowohl GaN: auch in Zukunft hohe Nachfrage erwartet

10-15 Anlagen pro Jahr in 2021 50 Klimaanlagen Haushaltsgeräte 40% Stromersparnis bei Wandlung
Bestandskunden und Neukunden (start-ups oder etabl. Kunden die neu einsteigen)

als auch SiC: wafer change from 150 auf 200mm
Schnellladestationen, Wandler in EV. 2021 Anlagen auf Kundenwünsche zugeschnitten

150 to 200mm upgradeable

Optische Datenwandlung
Datenmengen bis 2026 verdoppeln
Videocalls, Telefonate etc.

3D Sensorik in Smartphone

3D Sensorik in Card LiDAR

EBIT Marge
pos. Effekt von USD 1,20 Budget – 30-40% des Umsatz in dieser Währung könnte pos. Beitrag leisten

Fast keine Lieferkettenprobleme neue und zusätzliche Lieferanten

Orders bei Lieferanten bis weit in 2023 hinein
Digitalisierung der Supply-chain

Verbindungshalbleiter zu Si erhebliche Vorteile
Wide bandgap Materialien (III-V) weniger Abwärme als Si

Stromersparnis

M&A für zukünftiges Wachstum??
- ggf. ja wenn sie die Kernkompetenz stärken nicht Geschäftsbasis breiter machen

Shortseller und Aktienkurtreiber
Wolfspeed Auftrag
KZ Erhöhung der Analysten bis zu €35
weniger shortseller im Vergleich zu 18/19 – 1 Adresse noch aktiv Canada Pension Bord 2,19%

Fragesteller mit 34 Fragen

1. Frager Herr Beckendorf DSW
2. Frager Herr Kregel SDK Graphen (?) Power by light (?)
3. Frager Herr Fasching - Zulieferer beziehen aus Asien (Digitalisierung der supply chain)
4. Frager Herr Wigbert John (supply chain Russia/Ukraine) China über Zulieferer (Stahl, Elektronik) HV virtuell präferiert
5. Frager Herr Remo Lehmann

MicroLED

Entwicklungskooperationen. Erste Produktionsaufträge in 2022

GaAS next wafer size for next generation

OLED

APEVA Abwicklung 3,5 Millionen Einmalkosten in 2021 ca. 3,2 Abfindungen und 650K Rückstellungen
Gesamtkosten: mittlerer 2stelliger Millionenbetrag

Mitarbeiter zum Großteil übernommen

MicroLED – OLED

• Kontrast
• Lebensdauer
• Brillanz
  
  

Marktreife erste kommerzielle Produkte
- Smartwatches Ende 2023
- TV
- Mobile phones


Gallium: Low Power Kräftiges Wachstum Lieferfähigkeit des Materials

SiC: High Power Kräftiges Wachstum

Gallium als Nebenprodukt der Aluminium Herstellung, die weltweit stattfinden.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

PS: the best is yet to come

 

ESG und EU Taxonomie waren auch große Themenpunkte bei der HV.

Aixtron ist eins von nur 4 Unternehmen in der Dax/MDax Familie das für 2021 schon einen score reported hat. Man ist seit 2019 klimaneutral.

Die für meine Anlageentscheidung wichtigen Punkt waren im vorigen Post zur HV zu finden.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

ESG und EU Taxonomie waren auch große Themenpunkte bei der HV.

Aixtron ist eins von nur 4 Unternehmen in der Dax/MDax Familie das für 2021 schon einen score reported hat. Man ist seit 2019 klimaneutral.

Die für meine Anlageentscheidung wichtigen Punkt waren im vorigen Post zur HV zu finden.

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

auch hier ein herzliches Dankeschön an dich für deine wichtigen Infos aus der Hauptversammlung.
Schön, dass du  so viel Aufwand für uns in Kauf nimmst. (Würde nicht jeder machen!!)

Gruß
Walex  

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Die Aktien von Aixtron, Wacker Chemie und Telefonica Dt. steigen in den Stoxx-600 auf. Wie der Indexbetreiber Qontigo am Mittwoch mitteilte, werden daneben noch weitere acht Aktien ausgetauscht. Neu in den Index kommen noch Gaztransport et Technigaz, Saab, OCI, Axfood, Indivior, Fortnox, Harbour Energy und Nexans. Den Index verlassen werden CD Project, Quilter, Mips, Dr Martens, Nokian Renkaat, Qt Group, S4 (Ord. Shares), Ets Colruyt, Schibsted Gruppen, Orpea und Vifor Pharma.

Die Änderungen treten mit Handelsbeginn am 20. Juni in Kraft.

Die Indexänderungen im Einzelnen: https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/...en-in-stoxx-600-11409736 Gruß  baggo-mh

 

weshalb Aixtron beim heutigen allgemeinen Kursrücksetzer so besonders hart betroffen ist?
 

Vermutlich weil die Aktie dieses Jahr bisher so massiv outperformed hatte? Ich glaube vor kurzem lagen wir noch bei +50% ytd... Und vergiss nicht, dass Sie gern dem Tech Sektor zugeordnet wird..

Ich glaube auch, dass das Management zuletzt im größeren Stil Aktien verkauft hatte... das belastet natürlich auch etwas.

Warten wir mal ab, bis sich das ganze US Thema ausgespielt hat, dann bekommt man sicher nochmal schöne Chancen, denn operativ läuft es ja exzellent..

 

Hi Joss,

I still hold the shares although traded a few times.  There were some positive news  but I don't think they matter much given the current economical situation and people just focus on the stock price movements.  Currently the stock is trading at a 2023 P/E of 23. The question is how much we should pay for the growth to justify that.  

Regards,
CWL  

This 2022 article says Innoscience will increase 8" GaN-on-Si capacity 40% this year, 7 times by 2025, and already has equipment delivery agreements in place.

http://news.eeworld.com.cn/dygl/ic562582.html

"Innoscience plans to increase its total production capacity by another 40% this year. To achieve this goal, the capacity of the Suzhou fab will be increased to 10,000 wafers per month. And this is just the beginning. They plan to carry out an additional expansion in Suzhou to increase their total capacity to 70,000 8-inch wafers per month by 2025—meaning seven times their current manufacturing capacity

Innoscience isn't the only company planning to massively ramp up semiconductor manufacturing in the coming years. But Marcon says they have equipment delivery agreements in place to achieve these ambitious targets even in these supply-constrained markets."  

Epiworld, like innoscience, is another Chinese customer of Aixtron:

https://www.aixtron.com/en/investors/...0production%2520ramp-up_n1598

This article says Epiworld is adding 200,000 6" SiC epi wafer capacity this year and increases total lines/tools from 28 to 50 in 2022.  In addition, it has started the construction of phase 3 this year which would lead to a total capacity of 1.4m SiC epi wafers per year.

"Han Tiancheng Silicon Carbide Industrial Park project has installed 28 production lines, and it is expected to increase to 50 production lines by the end of the year."

"The third-phase project of Hantiancheng Silicon Carbide Industrial Park will start construction within this year, and the production capacity of the third-phase project will reach 1.4 million pieces."

https://www.semi.org.cn/site/semi/article/...b0eae93a4903f8b7079.html

Notes from me:

200000/365/8/3= 23, number of tools needed  for 200,000 6" wafers with 3 runs per day per year. This calculation is consistent with what the article says about adding 22 tools this year.

1400000/365/8/3=160, number of tools needed for 1.4m wafers per year.  I believe 1.4m wafers are the sum of all three phases. So phase 3 alone would acquire another 160-50=110 tools. The article did not say when phase 3 would be completed but it has started this year.  

ROHM's SiC power semiconductor production capacity will increase by 6 times, aiming to win the global market share
Compiled by Juheng.com, Chen Dacheng 2022/06/12 23:46

Rohm, a major Japanese IDM company, plans to expand the revenue of silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors to more than 100 billion yen by 2025 ; Rohm will invest a maximum of 170 billion yen to make SiC power semiconductors The production capacity will be increased to 6 times that of 2021; President Matsumoto Gong emphasized that the goal is to become the global market leader in 2025.

Last Wednesday (8th), ROHM held the opening ceremony of a dedicated production plant for silicon carbide power semiconductors in Chikugo, Fukuoka, Japan. President Gong Matsumoto said that starting from the new plant, the goal is to become the global market leader in 2025. This is also the first time that a Japanese semiconductor manufacturer has built a dedicated plant for silicon carbide power semiconductors in Japan.

This time, ROHM invested about 20 billion yen to build a special plant for silicon carbide power semiconductors in Chikugo City, Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. The last time ROHM built a new plant in Japan was 14 years ago.

According to the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" report, ROHM ranks 10th in the global overall power semiconductor market; however, in the global market share of silicon carbide power semiconductors, ROHM ranks around 4th, and this time the new plant was completed. After that, ROHM's silicon carbide power semiconductor production capacity will also be increased to 6 times the previous level, with the goal of increasing the global market share from the current 14% to 30% in three years.

At the opening ceremony of the new plant, Matsumoto said, "We will definitely implement advanced investment, and at the same time increase production capacity, to win the world's No. 1 position. Investments between 120 billion yen and 170 billion yen are being considered." He stated that he would implement further investment in Fukuoka, Japan in the future.

At present, ROHM has semiconductor factories in Fukuoka and Miyazaki, Japan, using 6-inch wafers to produce silicon carbide power semiconductors. The new plant in Fukuoka will be put into mass production in December this year, and the production capacity will be increased. It plans to start mass production using 8-inch wafers before 2025.

----------------------
notes:
Rohm is the second largest SiC power semi player after Wolfspeed.  Besides its own SiC epi wafer capability, Rohm uses SiC epi wafers from Showa Denko which is a customer of Aixtron.  It would be hard to believe that Rohm does not use Aixtron's tools internally for SiC epi if its supplier uses Aixtron's tools.  

https://www.sdk.co.jp/english/news/2021/41372.html

https://www.aixtron.com/en/investors/...520Production%2520System_n338  

https://compoundsemiconductor.net/article/114788/...rs_for_Micro_LEDs

"Soft-Epi, a South Korean company that specialises in GaN-based epitaxial growth using MOCVD, has announced that it is shipping GaN red epi wafers for micro LEDs.

The company says its breakthrough technology can mass-produce red LEDs using existing MOCVD without additional equipment investment."

At the Soft-Epi web site you can see an Aixtron planetary reactor loaded with six 8" (200mm) wafers, which suggests Soft-Epi already has Aixtron's new G6-like reactor.  G4 and G5 load five 200mm wafers.

https://www.soft-epi.com/

The new  G6-like reactors sold to Wolfspeed also load six 200mm SiC wafers.  From Aixtron's  03/2022 press release:

"...The new Planetary Reactors(R) will be delivered in a 6x200mm configuration, the largest capacity available to the market to date for Silicon Carbide epitaxy..."


 

It looks like the picture in the Soft-epi web site is actually a Taiyo Nippon Sanso GaN MOCVD system which can load six 6" wafers.  It is not an Aixtron's "G6". Sorry for the mistake.  

https://thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=4094

"The LED chips will be sized 34x85 micrometers and provided by PlayNitride of Taiwan"
 

https://optics.org/news/13/6/34  

Hi CWL,

excellent research once again, thank you!

Samsung Micro LED being supplied by PlayNitride who generally are Aixtron customers, at least in other areas, right? So next to the apple watch supply chain they should be another customer for Aixtron MicroLed, right? Means that Micro LED (with equipment being positive in terms of price..) is taking off quicker and probably stronger than expected?

I think we should be expecting a guidance upgrade (at least on margins) with Q3 results the latest.. driven by EUR/USD alone already..

But given how strong the stock has been recently, I wonder if we should expect some weakness if guidance is not already upgraded with Q2? Just a thought.. not sure yet.

Regards!
Fel  

Hi Felix,
A 6" (150mm) wafer can cut 5.9 million 34 um x 85 um LED's.

A 3840x2160 TV has 8.3 million pixels which requires 24.9 million REG LED's.

So one TV needs 4.2 (=24,900,000/5,900,000) 6" wafers (RGB).

G5 and G4 running 365 days with 4 batches per day can crank out 11,680 6" wafer per year.  A "G6" would probably have 20% higher productivity.

If Samsung sells 100,000 microLED TV's next year, it would need a minimum of 36 (420,000/11,680) G5+G4 running full capacity and 100% yield. In reality if f the factories run at 85% capacity with 90% yield, Samsung/PlayNitride would need about 50 G5+G4's.

Regards,
CWL  

Doing the same math, for a microLED smartwatch with 272 x 340 resolution using 15 um x 15um microLED, 100M smartwatches would require 40 G4+G5 MOCVD. The number depends on the size of the microLED chips. For example, If they use 30x30 um chips then multiply the required MOCVD by 4. If 10um x 10um, then about half of the MOCVD.

Global smartwatch market reached 127.5M units in 2021.  It is no secret that Apple has been working with PlayNitride to launch microLED smartwatches in 2024.  

The average USD/EUR exchange rate in Q2 is 1.065 vs 1.2 budget rate.  Consequently there could be a +4.4% gain from top to bottom line.  

With the rate staying at 1.07, my model projects Q2 sales of 94M and Q3 sales of 140 M.  I also project Q2 order of 135M, with that the Q4 sales of 179M.  Total  2022 sales would therefore be 501M.  This would be at the upper end of Aixtron's 450-500M sales guidance.  Increase in guidance on this not critical.

The most critical data would be the Q2 order which decides the Q4 sales, and if there would be an increase in the total order guidance for 2022 which s currently at 520-580M. The H2's orders determine the 2023 H1 sales.