Aixtron purpose of this thread
ST Micro (leader in SIC) announced Q1 results today, it will be interesting to look at the conf call transcript later with regards to SIC and other new technologies.
Key is that they reduced CAPEX plans for this year from 1.5bn to between 1-1.2bn, so on average a 400m or 26% cut. Directionally negative for Aixtron and other Semi Capex providers.
However, while they expect Q2 to see a -10% revenue decline vs. Q1, they expect H2 to be better vs. H1, obviously depending on market dynamics. It is noteworthy that particularly Auto demand was very weak in Q1, so this will likely remain an area of weekness. They find comfort in their H2 expectations as this should be driven by customer orders that are already being processed.
If I find the time I will look at the conf call later.
Regards,
Fel
https://www.4investors.de/nachrichten/...?sektion=stock&ID=141919
continuing the analysis from a post above: Semi Equipment suppliers see strong order intake in Q1, this should be positive for Aixtron's Q1 orders which I expect to be solid, at around € 65m, +20% yoy (and at the highest level compared to Q1-Q3 of 2019).
This is confirmed by Atlas Copco's Semiconductor division (a peer to Pfeiffer Vaccuum which is listed in Germany), they report +13% organic growth in order intake in the quarter, driven by "The order growth was supported primarily by continued investments in new production technologies, but to a certain extent also in new production capacity.".
From Aixtron It will be key to learn if order trends remained stable throughout the quarter and into Q2 (e.g. April) or if it tailed off driven by Corona. Also obviously, we would hope for the next QD-OLED order in Q2-Q4... which will also help for order intake.
Link to Atlas results:
https://www.atlascopcogroup.com/content/dam/...0423-en-q1-2020-dz.pdf
Regards,
fel
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"Aktuell sieht Siltronic kaum Auftragsstornierungen seitens der Kunden. Der Ausblick für das zweite Quartal 2020 ist noch gut. Während sich Endmärkte wie Smartphones, Automotive oder Konsumgüter wie Fernseher negativ entwickeln, zeigen sich positive Entwicklungen in Bereichen wie Servern oder Equipment für das Home Office."
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AMS hat heute eine sehr starke Guidance für Q2 vorgelegt, die Aktie daraufhin +15%. Treiber hinter den deutlich stärkeren Guidance für Q2 als erwartet ist wohl das Consumer Segment, wo sie einige design ins in neue Phones gewonnen haben (Apple?).
Bin gespannt, was das für Aixtron bedeutet.. neues iPhone mit world side sensor und mit 5G ? Sollte das nicht zur Nachfrage von GAN und VCSEL Anlagen führen?
Mal schauen, was wir dazu morgen im Call von Aixtron hören! Wäre ja schön, wenn diese End-Märkte nun langsam anziehen und die VCSEL Überkapazitäten mittlerweile abgebaut sind!
Grüße,
Fel
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No Covid impact, guidance confirmed, but share price dived by >20% during Covid times - should provide some comfort.
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In Summe sind die Zahlen vom Trend her in-line mit Erwartungen. Starker Auftragseingang, schwacher Umsatz und EBIT - wobei Umsatz und EBIT noch unter meinen Erwartungen lagen.
Lichtblick neben dem AE sind, dass die Marge in Q2 sehr sehr stark werden sollte, wenn da die Installationen in China nachgeholt werden (timing Effekt) - lässt sich auch dadurch ableiten, dass die FY GUidance unverändert behalten wurde.
Zu OLED bekommen wir hoffentlich nochmal mehr im Conf call... dieses Jahr ist für mich die Deadline, wenn die Order nicht kommt muss ich mich irgendwann verkrümeln.
Grüße!
Fel
Wir können nichts anderes tun als warten, hoffen und für uns selbst weiter recherchieren.
@CWL: Did you find anything new on the potential OLED order? Could you please go out again and intensify the search over the next couple of days, please? I will do the same.
z.B.
https://compoundsemiconductor.net/article/111030/...xponential_Growth
"In order to compete with LG's white OLED and maintain its leadership in the high TV market segment, Samsung Display Co. (SDC), announced a $13 billion investment to develop and manufacture QD-OLED by 2021-2022. But Samsung is hedging its bets: its Visual Display group is developing µLED using in house mass transfer and chips developed by Playnitride. The company showed impressive 75 inch to 150 inch µLED TV prototypes at CES 2020. Meanwhile, Samsung Displays is following its own development track and its QNED nanorod µLED 'ink', while still at an early stage, could be disruptive and bring the full benefits of µLED to its emerging QD-OLED technology and manufacturing infrastructure. Between the two extreme scenario of broad µLED success or limitation to smaller niche markets and segments, QNED could open a third path by blending µLED into more established display technologies."
„We do expect to reach the end of this qualification process and there is a – and we have a clear view - that this is goingt to happen throughout the first half of 2020 (…).“
Obviously this process could be impacted by Covid as well, suggesting this could be a 3Q19/2H2020 event now.
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OLED: Einige Development Topics sind abgeschlossen.
Einige sind noch offen, sollten aber in den nächsten paar Monaten abgeschlossen sein. Dann kommt eventuell die Bestellung.
Entscheidung kommt wohl nicht innerhalb 1H '20, aber sicher innerhalb 2020.
Ich verstehe nicht warum man dem Management nicht glauben soll. Das ist ein hochkomplexer technologischer PRozess, der nunmal dauert.
Andere Punkte:
3D sensing: Kunden sind beschäftigt. NAchfrage soll hofftentlich gegen Ende des Jahres wieder anziehen.
Starkes Interesse über die Tools seitens mini/micro LED Applications.
Mini LED als LCD backlighting application. Hier gibt es schon nennenswerte Umsätze, nicht so bei uLED (aber der Martk ist da noch nicht soweit)
Besonders Interesse gibt über Tools für rote LEDs
Weiter starkes Interesse im Bereich der Leistungselektronik
Ich war während des CCs etwas abgelenkt . Daher kann ich keine weitere DEtails nennen.
A pretty solid conf call I think. Order intake is solid with decent mix (Mini LED ca. 40% of Orders; Telecoms and GAN (incl RF) contributing the rest). The majority of the "lost" gross margin should be recovered in Q2 as installations in China can be done.
Comments regarding end markets is strong I think with all end-markets except for VCSEL ramping. Comments around a good order pipeline make another decent Order intake in Q2 likely in my point of view. In SIC there have been some delays from customers which Aixtron management actually liked as they had a lot of customer requests and the delays allowed them to smooth the production/testing of the tools. Good growth in Mini LED for Smartphones and large Walls (e.g. fine pitch); growing demand for power electronics, both SIC and GAN (incl GAN RF), and telecom infrasatructure buildout will likely be accelerated over time by Corona.
VCSEL so far remains the only area of weekness, I think in past calls they said, potentially the market will come back in H2-20.
I was surprised that they actually already had demand for GAN RF, given it was my impression in past conf calls that this application (largely power charging in smartphones and 5G in Smartphones) was still a couple of years away. The demand is mostly from Chinese customers but Western players will follow quickly. GAN is still at an early stage of the ramp up.
OLED. Order very unlikely in Q2, maybe in Q3. Very clear confirmation from the CEO that a decision WILL BE MADE in 2020. On the positive side they said, that they agreed with the customer that some of the development topics have now been completed and are final. To me this indicates that they are stepping in the right direction.
I cant help it but think that the remainder of the year will be quite strong.. Q3/Q4 had solid order intake which should help Q2 sales; the delayed installations which will happen in Q2 will add to the gross margin; good order pipeline mean orders should again be solid in Q2. Given that the Order Backlog is the highest since Q4-18 (at least, I didnt check further), this indicates that future capacity utilisation should be healthy!
We will see, but I think the story remains on the right track, we just need to remain patient!
On the MOCVD part there are no surprises. China will grab this opportunity to leap frog ahead in 5G when the West is fighting the virus.
On OLED, keep in mind that it is reasonable to believe that the SDI team developing the OLED project was also delayed by the pandemic. So pushing the decision back is acceptable to me.
I have not had gone through these companies. Certainly APEVA, IRUJA or Canon are not in it. One of the companies might be related to a VTE chamber fabrication that I read it somewhere else in Korea press a week ago but lost track of it. At a minimum, the QD-OLED train is moving again.
man sollte die ganze sache mal vom kurswert sehen. aixtron hat keine kurzarbeit noch hat aixtron einen auftragsmangel. Das papier ist im gegensatz zu anderen eher sorgenfrei.
aber der kurs steigt nun mal nicht. das kann durchweg daran liegen, das die aktie als eher nicht interessant gilt.
Außerdem birgt die Aktie bezüglich Samsung hohe Risiken !
Das solide Geschäft in 2020 ist im Kurs berücksichtigt. Viele andere Aktien wurden deutlich mehr zerbombt ...