Banken & Finanzen in unserer Weltzone

...bis zum Abgrund: US default on debt would trigger an 'economic catastrophe' - Yellen
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...-catastrophe-yellen-2023-04-25/  

 

Die Rating-Agentur Moody's gab bekannt, dass 33 der von ihr bewerteten Unternehmen nicht in der Lage waren, ihre Schulden zu bezahlen. Gut die Hälfte davon war im März de facto zahlungsunfähig
https://de.investing.com/news/economy/...n-und-hyperinflation-2393027
Corporate defaults jump with higher interest rates, slowing GDP growth and financial-stability risks
Fifteen Moody’s-rated debt issuers defaulted in March, the highest monthly count since 2020. The global speculative-grade corporate default rate will end this year at 4.6% and hit 4.9% in Q1 2024.
We expect distressed exchanges to remain elevated in the months ahead after DEs jumped to 72% of all corporate defaults in 2022 from nearly half in 2020. Many of these DEs will end up as re-defaults – underscoring how more out-of-court restructurings have failed or been undermined by the economic environment.
https://www.moodys.com/creditfoundations/...Rating-Transitions-05E002
Global corporate defaults highest since the pandemic in 2020: More companies around the world defaulted on their debts in the first three months of this year than in any quarter since late 2020, when businesses were still hamstrung by restrictions to stop the spread of Covid.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/18/business/...ghest-level/index.html

 

Schock: Bankrun bei First Republic Bank schlimmer als gedacht! Aktie stürzt ab
https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/...r-gedacht-aktie-stuerzt

Der historische Abfluss von Einlagen
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...-san-francisco-582581?page=6#jumppos172  

VIX one day
https://de.investing.com/indices/cboe-1-day-volatility-index  

ESAs Joint Committee Spring 2023 Report on Risks and Vulnerabilities
https://www.eba.europa.eu/...-vigilance-face-mounting-financial-risks  

The Treasury Department is warning banks about their risk strategy at the moment. First Republic earnings resurface banking worries as debt ceiling vote rattles market.
https://thehill.com/business/...-as-debt-ceiling-vote-rattles-market/  

erstmal raus.  

A Tidal Wave Of Money Leaving Banks Will Kill Profits And Lending
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/...ill-profits-and-lending  

What a waste!
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/04/23/...nd-goes-bankrupt-will-liquidate/  

Der Weg nach unten kommt dann doch sehr bekannt vor: San Diego Case-Shiller House Price Index
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/...an-Diego-YOY.png
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, April Update: Year-over-Year Price Drops Worsen in San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego, Portland, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Denver
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/04/25/...egas-phoenix-los-angeles-denver/  

> Margin Debt - No money left?
> https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-weltzone-517296?page=127#jumppos3177

Margin Call: Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction
https://www.isabelnet.com/margin-debt-expansion-vs-contraction/

"Margin Call - Be first, be smarter or cheat"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/...4kXwAIb-Vg?format=jpg&name=900x900  

Withdrawals by exchanges and other clients deflates non-interest-bearing deposits: Metropolitan Commercial Bank’s rushed disentanglement from the crypto sector has come at the cost of a steep increase in funding costs, as erstwhile clients moved their operational deposits elsewhere.
https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956564/...-to-higher-funding-costs
 

Japan's Nomura Holdings Inc saw about $850 million wiped off its market value. Nomura's quest for global growth hits buffers again. Moody's has a negative outlook on Nomura Holdings' rating, "reflecting structural challenges to the company's profitability in the domestic retail segment," ratings agency Moody's Japan senior analyst Tomoya Suzuki wrote in a report.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/...6-profit-drop-2023-04-27/
Nomura shares drop more than 7% after quarterly profit tanks. Investors have grown more cautious about volatile markets as a banking crisis that began with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank spread to Europe with the sale of Credit Suisse Group AG CSGN.S to its Swiss rival UBS Group AG UBSG.S.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/...han-7-after-quarterly-profit-tanks  

> https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-weltzone-517296?page=123#jumppos3081

Fed’s discount window comes in from the cold: After years of inertia, the US Federal Reserve’s discount window has sprung to life following deposit flight at US regional banks, even with the creation of a new liquidity facility in direct response to the crisis.
https://www.risk.net/regulation/7956582/...dow-comes-in-from-the-cold
The Discount Window and Discount Rate
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/discountrate.htm
Banks tap Fed facilities in effort to plug funding hole. But it comes at a hefty price. This is expensive money.
https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956577/...ort-to-plug-funding-hole
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/04/24/...republic-discloses-its-a-zombie/
 

US-Bankenkrise: Hält der Ausverkauf an?
https://www.finews.ch/news/banken/...onalbanken-fed-leitzinsen-boerse  

Central banks: Our latest calls ahead of a dramatic month: The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades
https://think.ing.com/articles/central-banks-our-latest-calls-2023  

USA: Haushaltsdefizit März 2023
https://www.querschuesse.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/u3102.jpg
Der US-Bundeshaushalt (Federal Budget) erzielte im März 2023 ein Haushaltsdefizit in Höhe von -378,076 Mrd. Dollar. In den letzten 12 Monaten waren es -1808 Mrd. Dollar. Das Defizit nimmt im Trend wieder zu.
https://www.querschuesse.de/usa-haushaltsdefizit-maerz-2023/
US Economic Growth Slows to 1.1% While Inflation Accelerates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...business-investment-slumps  

Im ersten Quartal  

REITs Slide To Even Lower New Lows: Real estate investment trusts have been among the worst 12-month performers as the Fed took interest rates higher and as the banking industry adjusted to difficulties. The lack of new interest in REITs —and the selling — appears to stem from concerns about the reduced value of underlying properties and the increased expense of funding projects.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnnavin/2023/04/24/...ese-4-get-there/
The REIT mageddon: 'Big CRE Short' Gains Momentum As Vornado hits a 27-year low.
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...trust-wkn-893899-582307?page=0#jumppos2
Moody's REIT / REOC ratings and credit opinions
https://www.moodys.com/researchandratings/...s/reit-reoc/005000013001  

Der Index der National Association of Realtors (NAR) für Vertragsunterzeichnungen zum Hauskauf fiel im März um 5,2 Prozent auf nur noch 78,9. Der Rückgang war schlimmer als alle Schätzungen in einer Bloomberg-Umfrage unter Ökonomen.
https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/pending-home-sales-snapshot  

> the US Federal Reserve’s discount window has sprung to life following deposit flight at US regional banks
>https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-weltzone-517296?page=128#jumppos3215

Bank Bailout Facility Usage Soars For 2nd Straight Week: Following the unexpected OUTFLOW the previous week, this week saw money market funds resume their trend with a $53.8 billion INFLOW...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...week-money-market-inflows-resume  

Spring Selling Season Already Goes to Heck, Pending Home Sales Plunge.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/...s-2023-04-27.png
Banking Crisis to Blame?
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/04/27/...-plunge-banking-crisis-to-blame/  

On top of the news from First Republic this week, one could argue that Round 2 of the banking crisis (bank superwalk as Jim Bianco has put it) is just beginning.
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...-san-francisco-582581?page=8#jumppos219
The macroeconomic danger posed by First Republic
https://www.axios.com/2023/04/26/first-republic-dangers
First Republic’s Billions In Losses Show Why Bank Deposits Need More Protection. “We experienced unprecedented deposit outflows,” said the First Republic Bank
https://www.forbes.com/sites/donmuir/2023/04/27/...the-next-bank-run/
The White House is continuing to monitor the situation at First Republic Bank, which has continued to lose deposits this week, spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said on Thursday, vowing that the Biden administration stood ready to take action if needed.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...ould-step-if-needed-2023-04-27/
If deposit outflows continue, the bank may be taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...-san-francisco-582581?page=8#jumppos221  

First Republic most likely headed for FDIC receivership, shares drop 30%
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/28/...bank-searches-for-rescue-deal.html
Fed report on SVB collapse
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/28/...s-and-central-bank-regulators.html
Metropolitan Commercial Bank’s  withdrawals by exchanges and other clients deflates non-interest-bearing deposits
https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956564/...-to-higher-funding-costs
The 2023 banking crisis
https://www.risk.net/topics/2023-banking-crisis