Der USA Bären-Thread
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alles was man bei der Zeichnung bekam, hat sich sofort verdoppelt
Es sei denn die grossen steigen jetzt noch stark ein...
Schon eingepreist?
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/...jpg?itok=AYZfHW_a
Meanwhile, as cases appear to be plateauing in several states, not only are deaths not inflecting higher but are at the lowest level since March.
So were most experts wrong that the surge in cases would also lead to a spike in deaths?
While we are debating that question, here's another one: back in late March and early April, consensus emerged that unless the first coronavirus wave is contained, it would result in an even more acute and deadly second wave. Why? Because both professional and armchair epidemiologists were using the Spanish flu as a case study as shown in the following chart from JPMorgan.
Now, according to Deutsche Bank, it appears that this comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu may have also been terribly wrong.
For Covid-19, the elderly have been overwhelmingly the worst hit. For the Spanish flu of 1918, the young working-age population were severely affected too. ....
This, as the strategist then notes, therefore begs the question of how history will judge the lockdown response to Covid-19, given its much more limited impact on workers in the economy. In short, we have an interesting situation at the moment, where rapidly rising cases in the US are slowing reopenings (negative) but the death rate is falling (positive).
Here are some further observations conducted by another DB strategist, Francis Yared, which suggest that the second wave is far less serious than the media is making it out to be.
...Results:
The hospitalization rate has declined to ~20% by 10-15pp since the second half of April. This may be due to (a) increased testing and better quality of the tests capturing milder cases and (b) self-selection of the population taking risks (e.g. average age of new cases declining)
The hospitalization mortality rate halved to ~10% (last week's results scaled from daily to weekly deaths) since the second half of April.
The overall mortality rate (deaths over lagged new cases) is the product of the previous two calculations. Since the second half of April, it has declined by about 2/3rd from 6.5% to 2%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...everyone-wrong-about-coronavirus
In die renommierte Eliteschule "Wharton business school" (Pennsylvania) kam Trump nur, weil er einen Bekannten dafür bezahlte, für ihn den Aufnahmetest (IQ- bzw. SAT-Prüfung) zu absolvieren. Er selbst wäre höchstwahrscheinlich durchgefallen. Später gab Trump laufend damit an, die "beste Schule der Welt" besucht zu haben.
www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/mary-trump-book.html
Da ist der Crash nicht mehr weit...
Als Kontra-Indikator ist das Medium fast so gut wie die BILD.
Er zahlte dann selbst und bekam es in anderem Spital gleich.
Es gab schließlich einen "kleineren" Eingriff, um den blockierten Harn-Abgang aus der Niere wieder frei zu machen.
Er meinte, dass wenn er irgendwelche Corona-Anzeichen (Fieber, etc.) gehabt hätte, hätten sie ihn vermutlich verrecken lassen, solche Angst hatten die im Spital.
Das bestätigt meine Annahme, dass es wegen dieser Covid-Panikmache VIELE Kollateralschäden gibt und noch geben wird. Auch eine Ärztin hat mir vor ca. 2 Wochen bestätigt, dass im Spital noch immer ganze Abteilungen zugesperrt sind -- wegen Mangel an Pflegern, die ja oft Ausländer sind. Auch hier erhöhen sich die Wartezeiten auf wichtige OPs deutlich.
"Deutsche Bank AG’s booming trading desks are set to see the frenetic activity of the first six months ease as the exceptional market situation created by the coronavirus ebbs, according to Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing.
The German lender will see a slowdown in the second half after benefiting from continued momentum in markets through June, Sewing said during a webcast hosted by Bloomberg News on Tuesday. While the bank is on track or ahead on its restructuring plan despite the pandemic, he said, debt capital markets is one area that’s set to decelerate in the coming months....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...momentum-continued-in-june
"The -7.4 percent contraction originally expected has been reassessed to -8.3 percent.
"The EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national levels. Because the lifting of lockdown measures is proceeding at a more gradual pace than assumed in our Spring Forecast, the impact on economic activity in 2020 will be more significant than anticipated."
And don't expect the European banks to help, as Daniel Lacalle recently notes, banks may face a tsunami of problems as three factors collide: rise in non-performing loans, deflationary pressures from a prolonged crisis and central bank keeping negative rates that destroy banking profitability. We estimate a rise in net debt to EBITDA of the largest corporations of the Stoxx 600 soaring to 3x from the current 1.8x. This means that banks may face a wall of delinquencies and weakening solvency and liquidity in the vast majority of their assets (loans) just as deflationary pressures hit the economy, growth weakens and the central bank implements even more aggressive but futile liquidity measures and damaging rate cuts....
auf deutsch etwas anders, man drängelt vor allem auf Wirtschaftshilfe
https://ec.europa.eu/germany/news/...rtschaftsprognose-sommer-2020_de
Valdis Dombrovskis, Exekutiv-Vizepräsident für eine Wirtschaft im Dienste der Menschen, erklärte: „Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Ausgangsbeschränkungen sind schwerwiegender als ursprünglich erwartet. Die bestehenden Gefahren, zu denen beispielsweise eine zweite Infektionswelle zählt, verhindern weiterhin, dass wir in friedlichen Gewässern segeln können. Die vorgelegte Prognose zeigt überdeutlich, weshalb wir eine Einigung über unser ehrgeiziges Aufbaupaket "NextGenerationEU" brauchen, um die Wirtschaft zu stützen......
Erste Daten für Mai und Juni deuten jedoch darauf hin, dass das Schlimmste überstanden sein könnte. Es wird erwartet, dass die Erholung in der zweiten Jahreshälfte an Schwung gewinnt, aber unvollständig bleibt, und dass sich die Lage in den Mitgliedstaaten uneinheitlich darstellt. ......"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...ee-dark-cloud-hanging-over-rally
"European stocks just hit a one-month high and the daily Euro Stoxx 50 Future chart is knocking at the 200-day moving average again -- a mark that saw a sharp three-day decline in June when the market was overheating from its previous rally. Overcoming this strong resistance could spur further gains for the index.Yet relative strength indicators are very close to being overbought, which may suggest that potential gains could be limited.
LCM Anlyst Dodd:There’s also some ominous bearish signals hanging over markets for the longer term. A few weeks ago, the weekly chart for the Euro Stoxx 50 Future showed a so-called bearish Dark Cloud Cover candle as the future sold off from the cluster of moving averages. “That candle suggested limited upside in this time frame and was the reason I sold the rally,” says Dodd.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/...jpg?itok=iT4PEwcO
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/...l-fridays-take-a-toll-2020-07-08
https://meedia.de/2019/02/19/...dieser-zitate-liebten-ihn-die-medien/
"The company reported a second-quarter loss of $363.5 million, or 91 cents a share, compared with net income of $28.2 million, or 7 cents a share, in the year-ago period. The adjusted loss was 48 cents a share. Revenue fell to $497.5 million from $1.31 billion in the year-ago quarter as the company closed most stores temporarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic...."
Worldwide net sales declined 45% to $556 million and comparable sales declined 44%; on a constant-exchange-rate basis, net sales declined by 44% as compared to the prior year and comparable sales declined 43%. These sales declines reflected closures of Company retail stores across all of its global markets at various times during the first quarter of 2020 due to COVID-19.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...irst-quarter-results-103000583.html
kann man sicher beliebig fortsetzen....
10:32 EIA reports U.S. distillate stockpiles up 3.1 million barrels MarketWatch
10:32 EIA reports U.S. gasoline supplies down 4.8 million barrels MarketWatch
10:32 EIA data show U.S. crude-oil inventories up 5.7 million barrels last week
Alipay
Chinas Fintech-Gigant plant offenbar Mega-Börsengang in Hongkong
Seit Jahren köchelt ein möglicher IPO des chinesischen Fintech-Riesen vor sich hin. Nun wird es laut Insidern ernst: Noch in diesem Jahr könnte Ant Financial an die Börse - und dabei sogar die letzte Mega-Bewertung übertreffen.