Aixtron purpose of this thread

Was sagt eigentlich Aixtron zu diesen mega Absturz unser so geliebten Qualitätsunternehmen?? Ich bin sehr Neugierig. Analis sind ja alle abgetaucht.  

many, many thanks for the very important information.
Unfortunately, I can't give you any more stars.

I found the statements by Rodney Pelzel, CTO of IQE, particularly interesting:

"It is key to our diversification strategy that has two thrusts with power and microLED. Today we manufacture GaN on Silicon in Massachusetts and have recently added two G5 reactors from Aixtron. We also have the original G5 for the group in St Mellon in Wales in a European Space Agency (ESA) program and engaged with imec programs as well."

The Newport magafoundry was put in place for GaAS VCSELs with ten G4 Aixtron and two G5's for GaN coming on line in October. "We are setting up very deliberately to have a very significantly to have a capability in the UK and US to give us global reach."

And otherwise with SiC we are only at the beginning...

Remain fully invested - also due to your information - and have therefore bought in.

Please keep up the good work!

Best regards

Jossy

 

Interesting news last night – a ‘profit warning’, which should rather support the stock in my view. In particular considering the ~50% share price decline ytd.

My initial thoughts:

New guidance (620-660m revs / 22-25% EBIT margin) at the top end equals more or less the current analyst consensus of EUR 657m and 23.9%, i.e. consensus shouldn’t move much on last night’s news. However, there will be some shifts within the sell side research community given the different views: Low end Hauck 630 / UBS 598 vs high end Jefferies 680 / Oddo 675 / DB 687. Given Aixtron still calculates with EUR/USD of 1.15, top end of the new guidance to be expected in my view.

Order entry is good news, in particular that the company expects order entry on a similar level (~180m) in the quarters ahead, which should support the view of a >EUR 700m revenue potential for 2025. Quite funny that Aixtron decided in Q1 to not provide any order entry outlook going forward, just to skip this policy a couple of months later, at least on a qualitative basis ;-)

Btw, I like the corporate communication to release these news so early in the quarter as it takes out a lot of uncertainty/speculation – well done, Aixtron (even if presumably driven by adhoc requirements)! Needless to say that the new mid guidance of EUR 640m is a different message than Aixtron’s “very likely high end of guidance” message in Q1…i.e. indeed there has been a negative development throughout the year. Which, however, does not justify a 50% share price decline in my view.

Your thoughts?  

I have expected to land and the lower end of the original guidance as the management has already warned. however, the ad-hoc surprised me and am a bit disappointed as I was just about to buy a second big position somewhere below 18 eur.
I am also positively surprised about the fast rebound of the OI. Having in mind the slow-down in EV I have expected a bounce up not before start of next year. It seems that we end up with a short lasting weekness in the OI. however, this makes think that the ongoing ramp-up of the manufacturers  in power electr. could inevitable lead to an oversupply in the next few years, if EV remains low.
Also, the dominant position of power el. in the OI reduces the diversification which is not good. It looks like optoel. is to slow down.

As to the stock price: nice rebound today. Nonetheless, I am not sure we will see prices 30+ in the next couple of months but who knows. Hopefully, the region around 20 will now become a solid base.