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Es ist noch kein Runaway-Markt sondern eine leicht volatile Seitwärtsbewegung im Moment und könnte so etwas wie eine Bodenbildung darstellen.
Der heutige Tag ist der 3. Tag nach dem Marketmaker-Squeeze und somit wird sich zeigen ob die bearishe Variante zumindest im Dow Industrial fortgeführt wird.
Auf ein gutes gelingen
By Tan Hwee Ann
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, had its eighth-straight record half- yearly profit because of demand from China and higher commodity prices.
Net income rose to $7.2 billion for the six months ended June 30, from $6.1 billion, a year ago, according to Bloomberg calculations from the Melbourne-based company's full-year results released today. That compares with the $7.5 billion expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and the $7.3 billion indicated in BHP's own survey of analysts.
Marius Kloppers, picked to become chief executive officer in October, will take over from Charles Goodyear, who approved spending $12.4 billion on mines and oilfields to meet demand. BHP said today customers have indicated they don't expect the volatility in U.S. and European credit markets to hurt demand.
``We're in the fifth year of a commodities rally and demand continues to be robust,'' said Alfred Wong, who helps manage $16 billion at UOB Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore, including BHP, before the earnings.
BHP, which trades in Sydney and London, has risen 41 percent this year on the Australian Stock Exchange, compared with the 5.8 percent gain on the benchmark index. BHP fell 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to A$35.40 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close.
``Supply side pressures will remain high and demand growth from China is expected to remain robust,'' BHP said in a statement to the exchange. ``The global economy remains robust, driven by solid activity in Asia and Europe.''
The company paid a final dividend of 27 cents, from 18.5 cents a year ago. It also said costs, net of non-cash costs, rose 3.6 percent, less than the 5.1 percent gain it reported in the first half.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tan Hwee Ann in Melbourne at hatan@bloomberg.net
By Anchalee Worrachate
(Corrects direction of two-year notes in second paragraph.)
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year notes fell for the first day in five as global stocks gained and Federal Reserve policy maker Jeffrey Lacker suggested the central bank is seeking to avoid an emergency cut in interest rates.
Two-year notes slid for the first time in eight days after yields dropped below 4 percent yesterday on speculation turmoil in credit markets would force the Fed to reduce borrowing costs before its scheduled meeting on Sept. 18. Interest-rate futures show traders are still betting on a reduction in its overnight lending rate by half a percentage point next month.
``The market has calmed a bit,'' said Paul Bethell, London- based head of futures and options trading at Fimat International Banque SA. ``Stocks are stabilizing. The emergency rate cut some people have been anticipating from the Fed looks less likely.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note increased 6 basis points to 4.65 percent as of 9:45 a.m. in London, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 3/4 percent security due in August 2017 slid 14/32, or $4.38 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 26/32. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Two-year yields gained 13 basis points to 4.15 percent.
Ten-year Treasuries yielded 49 basis points more than two- year notes, down from a two-year high of 56 basis points yesterday as shorter maturity debt underperformed. The so-called flattening of the yield curve suggests investors are reducing expectations of an imminent rate cut.
Richmond Fed President Lacker said policy decisions need to be guided by the outlook for prices and growth. Market gyrations shouldn't be the sole consideration, he emphasized.
``Financial market volatility, in and of itself, doesn't require a change in the target federal funds rate,'' Lacker said at a luncheon of the Risk Management Association of Charlotte.
To contact the reporters on this story: Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net ; Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 22, 2007 05:06 EDT
wo ich an deiner stelle vorsichtig wäre: du sprichst bei ungedeckten stillhaltergeschäften von "risikoarm"...da wäre ich extrem vorsichtig mit solchen aussagen...ich glaube das call- bzw. putschreiben ist so ziemlich das risikoreichste geschäft an der eurex oder cbot oder wo du handelst.
wenn du nen call schreibst und der kurs geht anschließend durch die decke, dann viel spass beim underlying liefern ;-))
du scheinst aber an sich etwas vom thema zu verstehen...hast du weitere interessante strategien??? nur long oder short hier rumzuschreiben kann jeder depp aus dem ttt-thread...wäre schade wenn du dich nur darauf beschränkst...
gruß
im richtigen Moment rumzuschreiben können die wenigsten
#Risikoarm# ist wohl der falsche Ausdruck wobei man bei sehr genauer Marktbeobachtung und einer Strategie das Risiko natürlich auf einen unterdurchschnittlichen rozentsatz senken kann. Restrisiko besteht natürlich immerwobei das in allen Anlagevariationen in der heutigen Finanzweltleider nicht ausschließbar ist.
#Weitere Startegien#
Gewisse Strategien die ich an der Börse verfolge richten sich nach dem aktuellen Marktgeschehen und ändern sich demzufolge relativ häufig. Was zählt ist die Gelassenheit und ein Outperforming des Marktes.
In der heutigen Zeit ist es bedeutend schwieriger geworden an der Börse zu bestehen und somit ist man gezwungen Augen und Ohren offen zu halten und seine Fühler auch in Bereiche auszustrecken von denen man in den Jahren 2000-2002 noch nie was gehört hat.
Man konnte damals mit Aktienanlagen den Markt fast blind outperformen.
Durch die Vielzahl der Anlagemöglichkeiten und die stetige Modernisierung der Bankensoftware (Kauf-Verkaufprogramme) ist heute ein Umfeld geschaffen der einen sehr harten Wettbewerb um jeden Preis geschaffen hat und somit überleben nur die stärksten Wölfe.
Werde bei Gelegenheit mal noch ein paar Ansätze zu verschieden Märkten einstellen sobald sich auch hier Möglichkeiten offen legen.
By Jenny Strasburg and Christine Harper
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The credit-market freeze that's paralyzing leveraged buyouts, mergers and myriad computer- driven trading strategies may cut Wall Street bonuses for the first time in five years.
``There's a lot of pessimism out there,'' said Gary Goldstein, chief executive officer of executive-search firm Whitney Group in New York. ``Looking at the world today as we see it and the impact the crunch is likely to have, it looks like bonus pools will decline.''
Bonuses, the financial industry's annual rite of compensation typically calculated as a multiple of salary, probably will decline as much as 5 percent from 2006, according to Options Group, the New York-based firm that has tracked pay and hiring trends for more than a decade. While the payouts often far exceeded the average of $220,650 at the biggest U.S. securities firms last year and increased as much as 20 percent from 2005, the subprime-mortgage collapse already has drained the punch bowl.
Hardest hit will be employees who create and sell securities backed by mortgages or pools of debt, Options Group said. One out of every three people in those roles may lose their jobs unless business picks up by the end of the year, the firm estimates. Bonuses may fall as much as 40 percent.
Hedge Funds
Hedge-fund investment managers, whose average payout climbed as much as 15 percent last year, may see a drop of 5 percent to 10 percent in 2007. Bonuses for employees in fixed- income units may fall as much as 10 percent, compared with a 10 percent gain last year, Options Group estimates.
Except at the most junior levels, traders and bankers receive most of their annual pay in year-end bonuses that are determined in part by the revenue produced by the individual, their division and the firm as a whole. The average bonus per employee at Wall Street's five biggest firms rose 18 percent in 2006, according to Bloomberg calculations based on company reports.
Individual bonuses vary, with some administrative staff receiving nothing and executives such as Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s CEO, getting more than $50 million on top of his $600,000 salary. Even Blankfein's pay, which is based partly on the firm's operating results and stock performance, may be lower. Goldman's stock, after climbing 56 percent last year, has dropped 12 percent in 2007. Revenue, which gained 49 percent in 2006, rose 11 percent in the first half of 2007.
The AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index, which includes Goldman shares, has declined 8 percent this year.
Lucas van Praag, a Goldman spokesman, said Blankfein wouldn't be available for comment.
Time for Turnaround
Recruiters, who are seeing a pickup in resumes from hedge funds and leveraged buyout firms, cautioned that it's too soon to know what will happen by the time banks start bonus discussions, typically in October. They also note that traders involved in equities, commodities and distressed debt are having a good year and are likely to reap bumper payouts.
``This is the quarter that is going to determine whether compensation is going to be lower or not,'' said Michael Karp, CEO of the Options Group, which bases its estimates on interviews with senior industry executives and information gathered by the firm's network of consultants.
The crisis that started with the mortgage loans to the riskiest borrowers has sent equity and bond prices worldwide on a rollercoaster ride. The market for mortgage-backed securities has dried up, hurting those who trade the bonds or sell them to investors. Investment banks haven't been able to find buyers for leveraged-buyout loans. Prime brokers may see fees drop as some hedge funds close and others reduce borrowing.
Resumes Arrive
Funds that have already shut or failed this year include two credit pools managed by Bear Stearns Cos., UBS AG's Dillon Read Capital Management LLC and Sowood Capital Management LP of Boston.
``We're already seeing a lot of resumes from hedge funds, and we're seeing them at the more junior level, a lot of these kids that defected to hedge funds for more money or a better lifestyle,'' said Deborah Rivera, founder of the Succession Group, a New York-based executive-search and consulting firm. ``We're seeing resumes from private-equity funds that have also let some people go.''
Outsized Paydays
Hedge-fund traders with at least 10 years' experience, who made an average of $580,000 last year, probably will see pay rise 8 percent to 9 percent this year, according to Adam Zoia, founder of New York-based Glocap Search LLC and co- editor-in-chief of the Hedge Fund Compensation Report. That's about half of the rate he was expecting before the market's decline.
``We have just sharply cut our compensation forecasts,'' Zoia said on Aug. 17.
The hedge-fund industry, where assets almost tripled to $1.7 trillion since 2002, leads Wall Street when it comes to outsized paydays. The 25 best-paid hedge-fund managers earned an average of $570 million in 2006, an increase of 57 percent from the previous year, according to Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine. Hedge funds typically charge fees of 1 percent to 2 percent of assets and 20 percent of investment gains.
At the top of Alpha's list was James Simons, founder of East Setauket, New York-based Renaissance Technologies Corp., who was paid an estimated $1.7 billion. Chicago-based Citadel Investment Group LLC's Kenneth Griffin placed second with $1.4 billion. Officials at both firms declined to comment.
Simons, Griffin
Simons's personal profit may drop from 2006 as his biggest fund struggles. The $29 billion Renaissance Equity Opportunities Fund is little changed on the year through last week, according to investors, while last year it returned about 21 percent. Griffin should again rank among the top-paid managers. Citadel, which oversees $15 billion, has returned about 15 percent this year, investors say.
``The ripple effects of hedge funds are more widespread than they've ever been,'' said Robert Discolo, head of hedge- fund strategies at AIG Global Investment Group in New York, which manages more than $8 billion.
Big pay packages at hedge funds and leveraged buyout firms have driven compensation higher at Wall Street firms, as they seek to compete for the best traders and bankers. Last year, the five biggest U.S. securities firms paid about $36.5 billion in bonuses, up 32 percent from a year earlier as the number of employees rose 7 percent.
Since last falling in 2002, total bonus payouts at the five firms rose 6 percent in 2003, 19 percent in 2004, and 18 percent in 2005. Securities firms typically set aside about half of their revenue to pay compensation and benefits. Of that, about 60 percent is paid in bonuses at year end.
Positive Sign
Recruiters don't expect reductions to be as drastic as they were in the bear market of 2001 and 2002, when the average payout for New York-based securities-industry workers declined 26 percent and 18 percent, according to the state deputy comptroller's office.
The financial crisis has been profitable for traders who bet mortgage bonds would fall or whose strategies gain amid swings in the markets. One indicator suggests the picture isn't as dire as it was in 2002: Analysts are estimating annual earnings will rise at least 11 percent at the top four Wall Street firms. Bear Stearns, the fifth, is expected to report a drop of about 6 percent.
``The sentiment right now is pretty harsh because in the past two weeks it wasn't hard to see people who lost a lot of money,'' said John, 29, an equity-options trader at a Wall Street bank, who declined to give his last name because he's not authorized to speak to the media. ``But on bonuses, it's too early to say. It was a good market before this, and I don't think people think yet that this will jeopardize pay.''
Bankers Squeezed
The bankers who advise LBO firms and the underwriters, salespeople and traders who help create and sell the loans and bonds to finance them are likely to see their rate of pay increases slow, recruiters said.
Last year, investment bankers saw bonuses jump 20 to 25 percent, the Options Group said. This year the rate of gains for bankers who serve buyout firms will probably slow to 5 percent to 10 percent and could decline further, Options Group said. That's because the banks are having difficulty selling the loans they've already made to finance takeovers and the pace of deals is likely to slow amid higher financing costs.
``The leveraged finance areas are likely to be impacted,'' said Whitney Group's Goldstein.
The success of hedge funds in previous years helped generate demand for prime brokerage, the departments at investment banks that lend to hedge funds and provide them with services such as trading software. Last year, bonuses surged 20 percent to 25 percent in prime brokerage, Options Group estimated. This year they may rise 5 percent to 10 percent, said the Options Group's Karp.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jenny Strasburg in New York at jstrasburg@bloomberg.net ; Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 22, 2007 05:18 EDT
By Marco Bertacche
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures gained on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to ease the effects of a credit crunch and maintain economic growth.
Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. banks, rose in Europe. TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. and E*Trade Financial Corp. advanced after the Wall Street Journal said the two online brokers are holding merger talks.
U.S. stocks rebounded for a fourth day yesterday on speculation the Fed will manage to defuse the crisis in credit markets, reviving a record pace of takeovers. Shares in Europe and Asia rallied today.
``We expect a rate cut at the next meeting in September, which would be the best solution,'' said Patrizio Pazzaglia, who helps manage the equivalent of $400 million at Bank Insinger de Beaufort NV in Rome. ``We're slowly going back to normality and the reduced volatility this week is encouraging although it's early to take long positions.''
Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in September rose 9.8 to 1,460.1 as of 10:45 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 71 to 13,188 and Nasdaq 100 Index futures increased 7.5 to 1,927.25.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, has dropped 18 percent since reaching a four-year high on Aug. 16.
Apple Inc. shares increased after the Financial Times said the company signed exclusive distribution agreements with three mobile-phone operators in Europe.
`Worst Is Over'
Interest-rate futures show traders are betting the Fed will lower its overnight lending rate between banks by its next meeting Sept. 18. Traders see a 90 percent chance of a half-point cut to 4.75 percent, from zero percent a week ago.
``The worst is over,'' said Bob Olstein, who manages $2.1 billion as chief investment officer at Olstein Capital Management in Purchase, New York. ``There's still going to be more shocks along the system as always, but each shock is more and more discounted.''
Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank, rose 37 cents to $48.43 in Germany, while Bank of America advanced 16 cents to $51.46.
TD Ameritrade climbed 21 cents to $16.56 in Germany, while and E*Trade surged 84 cents to $16.41. The deal could be worth as much as $20 billion, the newspaper said, citing one person close to the negotiations.
``We don't comment on market speculation or rumors,'' said Pam Erickson, a spokeswoman for E*Trade. Katrina Becker, a spokeswoman at TD Ameritrade, couldn't be reached for comment.
Apple, Medtronic
A spokesman for TD Ameritrade said the company talks to ``peers'' and will continue to do so, the Journal reported. An unidentified spokeswoman for New York-based E*Trade said the company sees value in consolidation and will do what is in the best interest of its customers, the newspaper reported.
Apple added $2.52 to $130.09 in Germany. T-Mobile of Germany, Orange in France and O2 in the U.K. each will give Apple 10 percent of sales from phone calls and data transfers made over the devices, the Financial Times reported, without giving the source of the information.
Jennifer Bowcock, a spokeswoman for Cupertino, California- based Apple, declined to comment on ``rumors and speculation.'' T-Mobile spokeswoman Marion Kessing, France Telecom's Berengere Arnold and O2's David Nicholas also declined to comment.
Medtronic Inc. lost $1.59 to $51.27 in Germany after the biggest maker of electronic heart devices reported fiscal first- quarter revenue that missed analysts' estimates. Revenue climbed 7.9 percent to $3.13 billion in the quarter that ended July 27, helped by sales of implantable electronic defibrillators outside the U.S. The average sales estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was $3.16 billion.
Stake Purchase
MGM Mirage shares climbed $1.2 to $75.52 in Frankfurt after Dubai agreed to pay $5 billion for a 9.5 percent stake in the world's second-largest casino company and half of the company's CityCenter project, a complex of hotels and condominiums under construction in Las Vegas. State-owned Dubai World will buy 14 million MGM shares from the company at $84 each. That's 13 percent more than MGM's closing price yesterday.
Toll Brothers Inc. gained 24 cents to $21.33 in Germany. The largest U.S. luxury homebuilder said fiscal third-quarter profit fell 85 percent to $26.5 million, or 16 cents a share, from $174.6 million. That was higher than the average analyst estimate of 2 cents a share in a Bloomberg survey.
To contact the reporter on this story: Marco Bertacche in Milan at at mbertacche@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 22, 2007 06:04 EDT
By Rick Green
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., the subprime lender whose sale to Lone Star Funds collapsed, will close almost all of its retail lending business, shut half of the 10 divisions serving brokers and halt U.S. mortgage applications.
About 1,600 people are losing their jobs, the San Diego- based company said in a statement distributed today by Business Wire.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rick Green in New York at rgreen18@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 22, 2007 08:46 EDT
