Die besten Gold-/Silberminen auf der Welt

Off-Topic was EM angeht, aber einige inklusive mir sind doch auch etwas in crypto Aktien diversifiziert:

Gestern gab es durch die Bank bei diesen Aktien gute Zuwächse: Hive, Argo, DMG, NDA, Hut 8...
Teilweise deutlich zweistellig. Frage mich, ob das ein Indiz dafür ist, ob die Korrektur bei den cryptos alsbald ihr Ende findet. Vorlaufcharakter wie es die Minen im Bezug auf die EM Preise haben. Da wissen einige potente Spekulanten schon wieder mehr und greifen massiv zu?  

Vulcan Energy Resources, wäre vielleicht als Diversifizierung zu gebrauchen. Ist natürlich kein Wittwen und Waisenpapier, aber wenn es hinhaut, sicher ein Renner in der Zukunft.

https://v-er.eu/de/startseite/  

Gab es wohl ne größere Konferenz zum Thema crypto.
Der pusher Nr 1 elon musk gab diverse positive Kommentare und das hatte dann den positiven (gewünschten) Effekt auf btc und die dranhängenden Werte.
Nda weiterhin auf der 200 Tage linie aufgesetzt, auch wie aus dem Lehrbuch.  

Fathom mit einem neuen Update zur Exploration.

https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/90932/...he-Albert-Lake-Property  

Bisher eine reine Fehleinschätzung von mir und sorry für den Tipp ! Bin selber ca 50 % hinten und genervt.
Ein mir bekannter Grossinvestor ist ähnlich dem Management relativ entspannt und vertraut auf die nächste Bohrung.

Im Nachhinein bin ich froh, dass das 0.18 cad PP abgesagt wurde und es war ausplatziert.
Natürlich ein Managementfehler, da das neue Financing für die nächsten Bohrungen eher im aktuellen Bereich zu finden sind
Werde aber nicht weiter aufstocken, meine Positionen aber definitiv halten

Sorry an alle für den bisher scheiss Tipp !
 

weltweit preiswerteste Aktie eines Produzenten: Images Resources
bis Jahresende ein Kandidat für 100%+: Sayona Mining ( Lithium + Gold in Australien )  

zu Mineralsand und Lithium hätte er lauten müssen.
Images ist in erster Linie Zirkon-Produzent und massiv unterbewertet  

Gold.  Ausführlich werden die Treiber für Gold genannt und die aktuelle Schwäche vor allem wegen dem festeren Dollar.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-21/...ion-VanEck-s-Joe-Foster.html

Silber ist überverkauft laut Commerzbank.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-21/...is-overdone-Commerzbank.html

Troubadour aktuell noch nicht verkaufen. Abwarten auf weitere Bohrungen bzw Erholung des Kurses.
Ja Management hat sich ziemlich verzockt hier. Immerhin wurden gestern wieder ein paar Shares vom Management gekauft.  

https://stockpal.asia/2021/07/qa-with-stockpal-sayona-mining-asxsya/

CEO Brett Lynch - "With all 3 mines in Quebec, we will be as large as any other Spodumene producer in the World"
(= As large as any other spodumene producer in the world would mean a minimum MC of $2-3B for @SayonaMining )
Derzeitige MC= <600Mill AUD

0:13 – Could you give us a quick overview of Sayona?
2:30 – I understand that Sayona aims to become a world-scale lithium producer in North America, how do you foresee doing that?
5:49 – Having won the North America Lithium contract recently, So how does that have an impact on your business plans  

Die Stagnation des Kurses (heute sieht doch bis jetzt schon mal gut aus)die letzten Wochen würde ich mit dem für August angekündigten Update der Ressourcen in Raja erklären. Warum soll ich dann auf einzelne Bohrergebnisse fokussieren, wenn ich die Auswertung 6 Wochen später bekomme?  

richtig geile Aktie!!!

Ich weis:

"Wir brauchen uns keine Sorgen machen!"

"Bin selber ca 50 % hinten und genervt."

Hast Du da so nachgeladen? Unser PP war bei 12 Cent, sind nur 4% miese aktuell.  

IWF Gold zu verkaufen ...

https://www.goldseiten.de/artikel/...-IWF-abgeschmettert.html?seite=1

Habe leider ordentlich zu Kursen 0.18-0.24 cad nachgeladen in den letzten Wochen
War mir sehr sicher. Hätte es beim ersten PP belassen sollen.
Jetzt warte ich ab bis zum Jahresende.
Werde das kommende PP wohl erstmal nicht mitmachen, da definitiv zu viele Tickets  

Summary

Sibanye shareholders might wonder what the Zuma protests will do to their holding.
Sibanye's value drivers are still intact. The stock also outperforms the sector in earnings and multiples.
The systemic risk could lead to a Zimbabwe-like period in the early 2000s.
Sibanye might have a value trap as the relative value metrics and absolute valuation don't make sense.
Abandoned mine shaft headgear seen from above on a sunny day
Anton Opperman/iStock via Getty Images
This article aims to place tangible value on Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) stock and outline how the current geographical risks might impact the stock for the time being. There are mentions of political events throughout the article, but this is in no way, shape, or form political commentary.

Performance


Source


Source

Sibanye has been through a volatile period where it gained a tremendous amount as Gold prices surged. A subsequent pullback in price has somewhat reflected the reality of the stock as the sustainability of its earnings has come into question. Another driver behind the stock's turbulence has been the high Beta. Sibanye's Beta of 1.90 means that systemic fluctuations in index performance will significantly affect the stock.

Bull Case

Value Drivers

Sibanye is one of the world's leading producers of precious metals. The company holds operations in the United States as well as Southern Africa. With a diverse portfolio of mining precious metals and other by-product resources and lithium. The diverse range of revenue streams assists with earnings quality as the company is not overly reliant on one market. In addition, the development and acquisitions of businesses in mid to downstream of the industry supply-chain have provided the company with valuable vertical integration benefits.



Source

In recent times, Sibanye has benefitted from a ramp-up in platinum and gold production in southern Africa. In 2019 Sibanye became the world's largest platinum producer. Furthermore, surging gold and platinum prices have assisted in earnings improvements. The expectation is that gold prices might cool off as we see a dollar recovery but platinum prices look set for price increases in the long haul due to its application in the industrial space, medical equipment, and its help in reducing global warming.

Earnings


Source

The company stacks up well versus the rest of the mining sector, where EBIT margin is the main factor we're impressed with. The EBITDA margin conveys the profitability better than the EBIT margin, in our opinion, as management has significant influence over the depreciation rate of assets. In addition to EBITDA growth, the free cash flow growth is encouraging as it suggests a higher intrinsic value.


Source

The stock's multiples stack up well versus both its sector and conventional benchmarks. Sibanye's price to cash flow ratio of 6.67 trades well below the 15.00 benchmark, indicating that the stock is undervalued. Further, implied value can be drawn from multiples such as P/E and PEG also trade below the desired benchmarks of 13.00 and 1.00. The relative valuation suggests that the stock would be a good investment based on market trading data.

Bear Case

The topic of South Africa as a failed state has been under much debate in recent years. It could well be that the country is a failed state after political events over the past week illustrated its inability to police and govern the general population. A significant amount of looting has taken place over the past few days, and the after-effects could damage Sibanye's stock.

Supply Chains

Supply chains are severely disrupted as looters have committed theft and burnt down various shopping malls, warehouses, and food stores in South Africa. The police have been overthrown by the mass number of individuals conveying anarchy at the nation's failures to provide for its citizens. There isn't a businessperson who knows what the end implications will mean for supply chains as the country reaches a similar climate to Zimbabwe during their hyperinflation period.

Future Output

Food and gas shortages are surpluses to requirements, which could subsequently lead to high inflation levels, somewhat mimicking Zimbabwe's days during their output disruptions in the earlier 2000s.

In our opinion, future outputs might come to a standstill as the machinery won't have adequate gas and workers due to the anarchy. It also needs to be considered that high inflation might cause a significant push on inflation, and mine workers might ultimately be discouraged.

Divestments

Sibanye might want to consider divesting their South African holdings. The company's CEO (Neal Froneman) has long had a bleak outlook on the South African mining sector, and recent events could be the final nail in the coffin. Divesting might be profitable, but the interim cost issue would be a concern to investors. Restructuring an asset-heavy business is not a simple task.

The Zimbabwe Case

Having made comparisons to the Zimbabwean politically driven supply shortage, we thought it might be good to assess the situation briefly.

Source



Source

Zimbabwe's rapid increase in inflation during the early 2000s caused severe pressure on its currency. The trade-off between a devalued currency and exports couldn't arise as workers were discouraged from returning to work. As a consequence, the stock market dropped to all-time lows. Many might argue that the market dropped due to liquidity and that depositary receipts listed in the U.S. might do better. This narrative is wrong. Depositary Receipts and the primary listings trade at a similar value on exchanges due to fundamentals and dealers' bookkeeping activities. We see a mirror image of what happened in Zimbabwe during the hyperinflationary environment as supply chains have been ruined. If workers are discouraged from returning to work, Sibanye will come under severe pressure.



Source: Statista

In adding to the argument, we can look at South Africa's output in the mining sector during 2020. The sector contributed 8.2% to the economy during a period when mines weren't operating fully. If platinum and gold sales are struck with severe systemic risk, South Africa might face a significant reduction in GDP, ultimately harming the ability to produce consumer goods, which could lead to hyperinflation.

Absolute Valuation

The best way to value the company is through an asset-based valuation and an EBITDA multiple.

Asset-Based Valuation: Natural resource companies are often well-valued using this metric as they are asset-heavy.
Calculation: (Enterprise Value - Market Value of Debt + Market Value of Cash - Minority Interest)/Shares Outstanding = ($12.37 billion + $1.38 billion - $1.27 billion - $152.2 million)/738.15 billion = $17.70 per share

Capital invested & EBITDA valuation: Although we're not a fan of looking at EBITDA over EBIT in analyzing earnings, the EBITDA multiple provides good worth in analyzing company value. This is a popular valuation metric for finding equity value. It's often used in private equity, but it can be used for public companies as well. MVIC (below) stands for market value of equity and debt.
Calculation: (((MVIC/EBITDA) x Normalized EBITDA) - Debt)/Shares Outstanding = (($5851.30/$1101) x $1360) - $1190.8 = $6036.96/738.15 = $8.18 per share

Investors should note that normalized EBITDA was determined by taking a 5-year constant average growth rate and multiplying last year's EBITDA with the growth rate, which is 294.78%. Normalized EBITDA usually needs to be adjusted with accounting metrics, but an average rate may be used for a prompt valuation of a mature company.

Value Trap

We can interpret from both the relative and absolute valuations that there could be a value trap. The low multiples can easily be confused with actual value. The absolute value indicates that the stock is overvalued. Investors shouldn't be misled.

The Verdict

Sibanye had a tremendous run over the past year, and we were initially relatively bullish on the stock. Since our previous analysis, severe systemic issues have come into play. In addition, the stock is overvalued while indicating relative value through its multiples, staging a possible value trap. We think it's best to sell the stock for now and possibly buy back in at a later stage.  

Kirkland Lake Gold: Another Blowout Quarter In Q2
Jul. 22, 2021 2:20 AM ETKirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (KL)11 Comments25 Likes
Taylor Dart profile picture.
Taylor Dart
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Long/Short Equity, Gold, Gold & Precious Metals, Value

Contributor Since 2016

"A bull market is when you check your stocks every day to see how much they went up. A bear market is when you don't bother to look anymore."



- John Hammerslough
















- Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor. All articles are my opinion - they are not suggestions to buy or sell any securities. Perform your own due diligence and consult a financial professional before trading or investing.









Summary

Kirkland Lake Gold released its Q2 results last week, reporting quarterly gold production of ~379,200 ounces, a 25% increase sequentially, and 15% increase year-over-year.
While the company was lapping an easy comp on a year-over-year basis due to COVID-19 restrictions, all of the company's operations performed exceptionally, and guidance is looking conservative.
Looking ahead, we should see solid growth year-over-year in Q2 2022 as well despite lapping a record quarter, with Macassa and Detour likely to see much higher output.
I continue to see Kirkland Lake Gold as the sector's top buy-the-dip candidate, and I would view pullbacks below $38.00 as low-risk buying opportunities.
Long conveyor belt transporting ore
svedoliver/iStock via Getty Images
It's been a rough few weeks for the Gold Miners Index (GDX), and with the gold price (GLD) sliding back towards the $1,800/oz level, higher-cost producers with all-in costs near $1,500/oz are set to see significant margin compression (barring a gold price rebound). Fortunately, Kirkland Lake Gold (KL) investors shouldn't be losing any sleep. This is because the recent Canadian Dollar weakness is a minor tailwind to unit costs, and the company expects all-in sustaining cost [AISC] margins above $900/oz in FY2021, even at current gold prices. With another outstanding quarter under the company's belt, I continue to see Kirkland Lake Gold as a top-5 gold producer and a buy on sharp dips.



(Source: Company Presentation)

Kirkland Lake Gold released its preliminary Q2 results last week and reported quarterly production of ~379,200 ounces of gold, a 15% increase year-over-year and a 25% jump sequentially. While this growth was partially due to an easy year-over-year comp for the company due to COVID-19 related restrictions from the Ontario government (Macassa & Detour Lake), the exceptional performance of the portfolio should not be understated. Notably, Detour Lake had its best quarter yet following the acquisition, and Fosterville is on track to trounce guidance, helped by grade outperformance. Meanwhile, outside of the company's control, the US Dollar (UUP) is finally strengthening vs. the Canadian Dollar, providing a minor tailwind for unit costs relative looking into H2 2021. Let's take a closer look below:


(Source: TC2000.com)

As the chart above shows, the Canadian Dollar's strength vs. the US Dollar was making it more challenging for Kirkland Lake to beat its cost guidance of ~$800/oz for FY2021, with two of its mines based in Canada. However, since June, the Canadian Dollar is up nearly 7% vs. the US Dollar, which has taken this headwind off of Kirkland Lake, in addition to higher fuel costs. Obviously, things could change dramatically between now and year-end, and there's no reason to believe this rally has to hold. However, with increased ventilation at Macassa with the #4 Shaft Project ahead of schedule, significantly less COVID-19 cases in Ontario, and a weaker Canadian Dollar, the company has fewer potential disruptions to costs and operations. This sets the company up for a very strong H2.

Kirkland Lake noted that the first ventilation raise at Macassa is expected to be completed by now, with the second in H1 2022, adding 200,000 cubic feet per minute of additional ventilation into the mine.


(Source: CityNews.ca)

Moving over to production, Kirkland Lake had an exceptional quarter, trouncing its production guidance mid-point of ~345,000 ounces of gold in Q2. As mentioned earlier, production came in 10% higher than guidance at ~379,200 ounces, marking the second significant quarterly beat in a row. As the chart below shows, this was a record quarter for the company, with a solid performance from Macassa (~55,300 ounces), Fosterville (~158,000 ounces), and Detour Lake (~165,900 ounces). For Macassa, this represented the second-best quarter in the past eighteen months, driven by higher throughput and higher grades relative to Q2 2020 (~90,800 tonnes processed at 19.3 grams per tonne gold).


(Source: Company Filings, Author's Chart)

It's worth noting that while production was solid at Macassa, the mine is operating at nowhere near its full potential. So, while the ~55,300 ounces in Q2 2021 was a solid result, we should see production increase to ~77,500 ounces next year based on preliminary guidance and ~105,000 in Q2 2023. This would translate to 40% growth and 90% growth, respectively, relative to this quarter's performance. This is based on much higher mining rates, with Phase 1 of the #4 Shaft Project nearing completion. Once the #4 Shaft Project is complete, it will allow for hoisting capacity of 4,000 tonnes per day.


(Source: Company Website)

Previously, Macassa was mine-constrained, with 2,000 tonnes per day of mill capacity, but mining rates closer to ~1,000 tonnes per day. Looking ahead, the #4 Shaft Project will double hoisting capacity, essentially taking the 'governor' off of the operation, translating to a much higher ceiling for annual production. This is expected to translate to the production of more than ~300,000 ounces in FY2023 and up to 425,000 ounces in FY2024. The other benefits of the project in addition to increased output, are lower unit costs (sub $700/oz), improved ventilation, and more effective exploration east of the South Mine Complex. A look at how Macassa output should increase is shown below, with Macassa production represented by the pink bars.


(Source: Company Filings, Author's Chart)

Moving to Fosterville, it was an incredible quarter, though this was partially due to a shift in mine sequencing. However, while the change in mine sequencing (high-grade stopes planned for Q4 at Swan were advanced into Q2) did help with the beat, the company saw another quarter of grade outperformance as well. During Q2, Fosterville processed ~170,300 tonnes at a grade of 29.2 grams per tonne gold, with the Swan Zone accounting for 53% of tonnes milled in Q2 vs. 62% in the same period last year. So, while grades were lower (29.2 grams per tonne gold vs. 39.5 grams per tonne gold) year-over-year, strong recovery rates despite lower grades and higher throughput allowed for 2% higher output vs. Q2 2020.


(Source: Company Video)

With the mine sequencing shifted, Fosterville will not be set up for as strong of a finish to FY2021, with Q4 otherwise set to be the strongest quarter of 2021. Having said that, Fosterville is already sitting at 64.7% of its annual guidance mid-point of ~412,000 ounces, setting up Kirkland Lake for a beat on guidance in FY2021. Even if we assume just ~215,000 ounces of gold production in H2 2021, Fosterville will easily beat the top end of its FY2021 guidance of 425,000 ounces. This is based on ~266,700 ounces produced in H1 and estimates of 215,000 ounces produced in H2.


(Source: Company Presentation)

Finally, Kirkland Lake's newest operation also had a solid quarter, with production up 25% year-over-year to ~165,900 ounces. While Detour Lake was up against easy year-over-year comps due to restrictions in Q2 2020 related to COVID-19, this was the best quarter for the mine since Kirkland Lake acquired it, helped by near-record throughput (~5.89 million tonnes processed) at higher grades (0.96 grams per tonne gold vs. 0.79 grams per tonne gold in Q2 2020).


(Source: Company Filings, Author's Chart)

Detour Lake is already providing a major boost to the company's overall production profile, but the best is yet to come. This is because a new mine plan is expected in early 2022, with investors set to see how the updated reserves look after more than 300,000 meters of drilling. In addition, there's the potential to get to ~800,000 ounces quicker than expected in the FY2021 Life Of Mine Plan, with higher grades and the permits for higher throughput in place. As shown in the 2021 LOMP, production is not expected to hit 800,000 ounces until 2025. However, I would not be surprised to see gold production reach this level in 2024, which would translate to double-digit output growth for Kirkland Lake vs. 2021 levels.


(Source: Company Presentation)

Many investors continue to avoid Kirkland Lake due to a belief that the best days are behind the company, with the growth engine (Fosterville) no longer pushing out 600,000 ounces per annum. However, as the chart below shows, Detour Lake and Macassa have the potential to produce ~1.17 million ounces combined in FY2024, based on what I believe to be conservative estimates of 755,000 ounces from Detour Lake and 415,000 ounces from Macassa. Even if Fosterville produces just 380,000 ounces in FY2024, this would translate to ~1.55 million ounces of gold production on a consolidated basis, translating to 10% growth from my FY2021 production estimate of 1.41 million ounces.


(Source: Company Filings, Author's Chart)

Some investors might groan, pointing out that Detour Lake and Macassa ounces are not the same as Fosterville, with Fosterville producing at costs below $400/oz at peak production. However, with Detour Lake's AISC set to dip below $850/oz at a ~750,000-ounce run rate and Macassa's costs set to dip below $700/oz, Kirkland Lake will still be the lowest-cost million-ounce producer in the sector and should command a premium, especially considering that it operates out of the safest jurisdictions. Despite this solid outlook with 10% growth out to FY2024, which assumes no acquisitions and the highest margins in the sector, the stock trades at barely 11x earnings estimates.


(Source: YCharts.com, Author's Chart)

If we look at the earnings trend above, Kirkland Lake continues to have one of the most impressive compound annual earnings per share [EPS] growth rates among all publicly traded companies. Even if we begin from FY2016 ($0.32) due to low double-digit annual EPS in FY2015, the company's annual EPS growth will remain above 60% in FY2021 based on earnings estimates of $3.36. Critics will point out that this compound annual EPS growth rate is not sustainable and that it's set to decline substantially based on estimates of $4.02 in FY2023. This is true, and assuming Kirkland Lake only meets FY2023 estimates, the company's compound annual EPS growth rate will dip to ~43.6%.


(Source: Company Website)

While decelerating growth rates often lead to multiple compression, it's important to note that a ~43% compound annual EPS growth rate still places KL among the top 200 companies from a compound annual EPS growth rate standpoint on the US Market. Typically, these companies trade at well above 25x earnings and up to 100x earnings in Zoom Video's (ZM) case, but Kirkland Lake trades at barely 10x next year's estimates. Obviously, a lack of pricing power due to selling a commodity suggests that the company should have a significantly discounted multiple relative to peers like Zoom, DocuSign (DOCU), Crocs (CROX), and others. This suggests that Kirkland Lake should command a much lower multiple than its peers with high-octane growth rates.

However, even if we assume a discounted earnings multiple of just 15 to adjust for the cyclicality of Kirkland Lake's business, we come up with a fair value of $60.30 based on FY2023 estimates. This translates to more than 50% upside to fair value for its 18-month target price and assumes the company does not complete a small acquisition using solely cash which would be accretive to annual earnings. If Kirkland Lake were to use its ~$1.05 billion in estimated year-end cash to complete an acquisition, it could add another ~180,000 plus ounces of production by FY2024 without further share dilution.

The other avenue to grow annual EPS is through buybacks, with the potential to buy back over 21 million shares in the next two years (based solely on its current cash position (~$860 million) at the current share price of ~$40.00. This would represent an ~8% reduction in the share count and would allow for a beat on FY2023 estimates, given that Kirkland Lake should produce closer to ~1.56 million ounces in FY2023 (2021 estimates: ~1.41 million ounces) at lower costs. I believe either option or a combination of both would be an excellent use of free cash flow, and it makes sense to take advantage of the buyback program with the stock more than 40% undervalued, in my view, at current levels.


(Source: Company Presentation)

While most investors assume that the best bets in the market are those with the most upside, I believe the best bets that can be sized the largest are those with the least downside. With Kirkland Lake Gold trading at less than 10x FY2023 annual EPS estimates with 55% plus AISC margins and 10% of its market cap in cash, the stock continues to be one of the safest bets in the sector. This is because the company is a cash-flow machine at current gold prices and a defensive play on the sector in periods of declining prices, benefitting from the highest margin operations in the safest jurisdictions. Given the company's exceptional track record, ability to grow production without dilution due to its strong balance sheet, and a very reasonable valuation, I continue to see the stock as one of the best buy-the-dip candidates in the sector.  

https://mailchi.mp/8a5c18aecd79/...r-and-14-year-payback?e=c5a9c5b6b0

Sowas nenn ich mal Zahlen, und die haben noch jede Menge Möglichkeiten UG und aus Abraumhalden.  

aus Börse am Mittag:

Die börslichen Notierungen können Sie als Anleger getrost vergessen. Tatsächlich werden die Preise für das weiße Metall in Hinterzimmern gemacht. Ganz konkret: Sie ergeben sich aus großen Liefervereinbarungen zwischen einem Förderer und dem Abnehmer. Dabei setzt quasi immer die letzte bekannt gewordenen Liefervereinbarung den Marktpreis, der ab diesem Zeitpunkt zunächst gilt.
Genau vor wenigen Tagen wurde eine dieser wegweisenden Vereinbarungen publik. Und dieser Vertrag hat es in sich. So hat der chinesische Autobauer BYD bei einem Unternehmen der Spezialchemie knapp 8.000 Tonnen einer Lithiumverbindung geordert. Dabei wird der Autobauer pro Tonne über 52.000 Euro bezahlen. Aus einer vorangegangenen Vereinbarung wissen wir, dass vor rund 4 Wochen für das selbe Material noch 39.300 Euro pro Tonne bezahlt worden sind. Mit anderen Worten: Im Juni ist der Preis für diese Lithiumverbindung um 33 % gestiegen. Daraus dürfen Sie getrost schließen, dass zuletzt alle Lithiumpreise wieder einmal mächtig explodiert sind.  
Dennoch zeigen Ihnen die diversen Informationsportale immer noch ungerührt den offiziellen Uraltpreis von 89.000 Yuan oder 11.700 Euro je Tonne an. Tatsächlich hat der breite Markt von dem jüngsten Preisschub noch nicht viel verstanden. Eben weil die offizielle Preisdarstellung für dieses Metall immer noch sehr grob und wenig aktuell ist.

 

erwähnt zum mittelständischen Silberproduzenten aufsteigen. Der Autor sieht ein faires Kursziel von 5,26 cad wenn ich mich nicht täusche. Das wären dann fast 1000 % seit dem Kauf. Ich denke um hier komplett zu ernten wird man noch ca 2-3 Jahre halten müssen um dann bei Realisierung der 10 Millionen Silberunzenproduktion Kasse zu machen.

GoGold Is Attractive With Several Near-Term Catalysts
Jun. 20, 2021 12:58 AM ETGoGold Resources Inc. (GLGDF)10 Comments11 Likes
Bang For The Buck profile picture.
Bang For The Buck
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Deep Value, Value, Commodities, Gold

Contributor Since 2017

I enjoy my anonymity, where I write under the name Bang For The Buck. I hold a BSc and MSc in Financial Economics, but most of my value-based investment knowledge comes from independent learning where I am a perpetual student. I primarily focus on turnaround stories, with attractive valuations, in cyclical industries. I have a significant portion of my portfolio exposed to the precious metals industry due to current monetary and fiscal policies.

I publish regular articles on Seeking Alpha and offer a Marketplace service called Off The Beaten Path where subscribers receives real-time updates on the portfolio, in-depth portfolio reports, and frequent updates on holdings companies. As the name suggest, I primarily invest in industries and companies that are underappreciated, which I have found provides more attractive returns.

I am always happy to respond to comments and questions in my articles during the first few days. More in-depth ongoing discussions are had inside Off The Beaten Path.

Summary

GoGold has had a fantastic performance over the last three years, but the company has a bright future with several near-term catalysts.
The market has in my view yet to fully appreciate the size of Los Ricos North.
The company still has a relatively conservative valuation compared to some peers.
Macro picture of a raw golden nugget found on a mine
plastic_buddha/E+ via Getty Images
Investment Thesis


Figure 1 - Source: My GoGold Articles' Performance

GoGold (OTCQX:GLGDF) has been a fantastic success story which I have written many articles about over the years. Despite the strong share price performance over the last three years, I continue to think the future is bright for GoGold with several near-term catalysts.

Chart
Figure 2 - Source: YCharts

While GoGold has Parral, which is producing solid cash flows at current metal prices. The company is primarily viewed as a development company now with Los Ricos accounting for most of the value. Los Ricos continues to grow unabated, and the market has in my view yet to fully appreciate the size I think Los Ricos North will show in just the first resource estimate. It is important to remember that the growth will not stop there.

I will primarily focus on Los Ricos North in this article, and I will use two price scenarios for the valuation. I have used an AISC of $15/oz for Parral to calculate the net present value of the operation. The NPV estimates for Los Ricos South are interpolated from the PEA that was released earlier this year.



Figure 3 - Source: GoGold Press Releases

Market Value

The latest share price is C$3.06 for GoGold, a USDCAD rate of 1.2462 together with the latest financials as of Q2-21 gives us a market cap of $717M and an enterprise value of $635M. Note that it also includes all options and the expected cash from the options.



Figure 4 - Source: Multiple Sources

Los Ricos North



Figure 5 - Source: Press Releases

GoGold has primarily been focusing on four areas which are to be included in the first Los Ricos North resource estimate, presently estimated to be released in October of 2021. GoGold started at Los Ricos North with La Trini and is presently drilling at El Favor, Casados, and El Orito.

The results have been very encouraging, and the company continues to release extremely strong drill results almost on a weekly basis. So, the deposits are growing at a rapid pace.






Figure 6, 7, & 8 - Source: Press Releases

The average grade has been good for what appears to have the potential for open pit mining in all the Los Ricos North areas. It is however not quite as good as Los Ricos South. The average length on the other hand, which is a decent proxy for width, is significantly more attractive at Los Ricos North than Los Ricos South.

So, while we might see a slightly higher portion of the material be excluded from the resource due to a lower average grade. The wider widths should improve the economics of Los Ricos North compared to Los Ricos South.

Three out of the four areas at Los Ricos North also have a very high silver content, which is an attractive feature. El Orito has more base metals where the ounces are presently found at a slightly lower depth.





Figure 9 & 10 - Source: Own Calculations on Drill Results

We will get a more reliable estimate for the size of the resource in October first. But if we make the rough assumptions that the cut-off grade, drill hole spacing, and angles of the drilling are like Los Ricos South. We can use the sum of the length times the grade to get a rough proxy for the size of Los Ricos North, which has so far given us a very positive indication. Keep in mind that we probably have somewhere around 3-4 months left to drill before the first resource estimate is released.

I consequently think at least 100M silver equivalent ounces is not an overly aggressive estimate for the first Los Ricos North resource, now expected in October. The resource will regardless of the result continue to grow over the following year, which is beneficial if I am overly optimistic in my estimate.



Figure 11 - Source: Own Calculations on Drill Results

Valuation Model

If we put it all together, the below chart highlights the current market cap in relation to the two valuation scenarios.



Figure 12 - Source: Own Calculations

The estimated value for Los Ricos North is based on the size of the deposit, a slightly lower grade, but also wider widths than Los Ricos South. Given that the size of the deposit is in my view significantly larger than Los Ricos South, the fixed costs will be spread out on more ounces, which is likely to further boost the economic numbers for the asset.

Catalysts & Conclusion

GoGold was recently announced to be included into the GDX now in June already, which is very welcome source of demand for the stock. The company also ticks all the requirements for GDXJ. So, the stock could be added to GDXJ as well in September or December of 2021 to further boost the demand for the stock.

The first resource estimate for Los Ricos North, now scheduled for October, will be the main driver of the stock in the fall as I do not think the market has realized the size of the asset, which is set to continue to grow for some time.

There will also be a PFS for Los Ricos South, which is presently expected to be released in early Q1-22. That will de-risk the project and move GoGold one step closer to being a mid-size silver producer.

There will also be more exploration drilling at both Los Ricos North and Los Ricos South, which will be exceedingly interesting to follow.

Now, is C$5.26 as indicated in the valuation chart a realistic target price? Development projects usually trade with discount to NPV, but we have recently seen other development project trade close to 100% of the value for both reserves and resources at spot prices. So, I think it is fair to say GoGold is still a very attractive stock where it is currently priced and the discount to NAV should at the very least decrease significantly from today's levels.  

und weltweit 8 Giga-Factories für den Bau von EV-Batterien aus dem Boden stampfen.
Das wird die Nachfrage nach Lithium nicht verringern.... ( kleiner Scherz )  

Der Herr Hellmayer sagt nein aber die Daten sagen was anderes. Arbeitslosigkeit angestiegen dementsprechend muss man  auch weiter Vermögenswerte aufkaufen. Dazu steigen die Rohstoffe wieder samt Öl. Das heißt die Inflation wird auch im Juli hoch bleiben. Die Zinsen geht wieder leicht runter und Dollar ist unter Druck. Kommt heute endlich mal ein Rebound in Gold Richtung 1830 US Dollar?
 

wollen bis mindestens Ende März 22 noch mehr Anleihen im PEPP Programm kaufen. Ich sage nur Inflation voraus.

EZB revidiert Forward Guidance; PEPP-Käufe bis mindestens März 2022; PEPP-Käufe sollen deutlich höher laufen als zu Beginn des Jahres; EZB bekennt sich zu akkommodierender Geldpolitik; PEPP-Volumen kann falls nötig angepasst werden; APP-Käufe monatlich weiter bei €20 Mrd; Zinsen auf aktuellem Niveau bis Prognose Fortschritte zeigen.  

Granite mit ersten Bohrungen von laufenden Programm. Nicht schlecht würde ich sagen aber auch nicht gut. Positiv schöne Längen dabei wenn sich lownässig. Das ist schon mal gut. Wichtig wäre es weiterhin auf High Grade Treffer mit schönen Längen zu kommen. So wird auf jedenfall die Resource ausgeweitet.
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/...or-mining-brief-for-date-b-j-y



Wir kommen bei Trigon der Produktion näher

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/...or-mining-brief-for-date-b-j-y


Dazu Warchliste Golden Lake mit guten High Grade Treffern.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/...or-mining-brief-for-date-b-j-y
 

unglaublich günstig

Bin mit Recon in Namibia schon sehr gut gefahren, warum also nicht auch mit Trigon :-)))  

Lithium- na dann sollten unsere LITHIUM Aktien auch einen Schupp machen, Sienna und SPMT sind schon gut aufgestellt. Denke wir brauchen etwas mehr Zeit. Erfolg haben wir nur, wenn wir früh genug unseren Einstieg schaffen. Aber bitte bedenken- Aktien auf 2-3  step  kaufen, so bekommen wir einen fairen EstK und guten Durchschnitt.