anbei ein interessanter Bloomberg Artikel bzgl. der Ölpreis Meinung vom Handelshaus Trafigura. Im Fazit: Schwacher Ölpreis in Q4, Erholung in H1-21. Passt mit den Erwartungen für den AE für SBO zusammen. Könnte allerdings nochmal die SBO Aktie belasten. Auf der anderen Seite natürlich die Frage, was ist bei diesem ausgebombten Niveau bereits eingepreist?
Ebenfalls heute gelesen, dass TUI z.B. Ihre Cruise Liner ab Q1-21 wieder fahren lässt. Dann sollte m.E. auch irgendwann der Flugverkehr wieder Fahrt aufnehmen, alles Öl Verbraucher.
Im Fazit für SBO: Wir sind sicher noch sehr früh in der Erholungszeit, aber ab Januar sollte der End-Markt langsam in unsere Richtung laufen..
Trafigura Sees Oil Market Getting Worse Before It Gets Better
2020-09-14 06:38:34.913 GMT
By Serene Cheong and Javier Blas
(Bloomberg) -- Commodity trading giant Trafigura Group
believes the oil market is about to go back into surplus as the
demand recovery stagnates.
“We expect crude stocks to build into the year-end,” said
Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at Trafigura. “Headline oil
prices were a bit higher than they needed to be: $40 a barrel
Brent is more sensible, and my gut feeling is that we will drift
into the high $30s.”
The comments mark a bearish start to the annual Asia
Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, one of the world’s
biggest oil-trading industry gatherings. With the coronavirus
still ravaging countries around the world, the conference has
been moved online this year and most companies have canceled the
normal round of cocktail parties and dinners.
Trafigura has a vantage point over the global oil market as
the world’s second largest independent energy trader, behind
only Vitol Group. It was among the first to forecast the
magnitude of the demand collapse in March and April. Now, the
trading house is betting the oil market is about to enter
another bearish phase despite the efforts of the OPEC+ alliance
to balance supply and demand.
“This market looks worse in a couple of months than now,”
Luckock said in an interview ahead of his online speech to
APPEC, organized by S&P Global Platts. “I think lower oil prices
Oil traders including Trafigura are gearing up for a
possible glut in crude oil and refined petroleum products,
snapping up giant tankers for months-long charters so that they
can be ready to store excess barrels if necessary.
The main problem is that demand, which recovered sharply
over May and June, has plateaued. It’s now around 92 million
barrels a day, compared with roughly 100 million barrels a day
before the pandemic, according to Trafigura. The market
consensus a couple of months ago was that consumption would
steadily increase in the third and fourth quarters, but traders
are now scaling back those forecasts as some nations struggle
with a second wave of infections.
As a result, Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped
below $40 a barrel last week for the first time since June. West
Texas Intermediate, the American benchmark, has fallen to near
$37 a barrel.
The summer driving season in the U.S., key for gasoline
demand, was disappointing and with many Americans either
unemployed or working-from-home for the foreseeable future, few
see a quick recovery in oil consumption. The virus is still
surging in India, weighing on energy demand there, although the
outlook is better in China and Europe.
Diesel and jet fuel have been hit particularly hard as the
virus leaves thousands of trucks idled and many flights
canceled. Many refineries are making little money and, in some
cases, actually losing it.
“I’m in no hurry to be involved in a recovery trade,”
Luckock said. “We’re in a supply-heavy market and it’s a
difficult situation to get through,” he said, adding that oil
prices should start to rise again in the first quarter.