Sirius XM Radio NEWS
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|Eröffnet am:||02.04.09 16:53||von: Christkindl||Anzahl Beiträge:||199|
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Gestern gab es überm Teich einen Millionenkauf nachbörslich. Ich weiß nicht ob ihr es gesehen habt, aber 2,4 Mio Stück finde ich schon eine Ansage!!
Ich denke heute gehts locker über die 0,50$ mit unserem Baby!
Die 1 vor dem Komma ist nur noch eine Frage der Zeit, sie wird aber dieses Jahr noch kommen!
Christkindl: Are Automaker Woes a Blessing in Disguise for Siri
Now for clarity's sake, I am not saying that thousands losing their livelihood should be celebrated by those invested in SDARS. I feel bad for those who will be impacted by this whole mess, but in the end, I must look at what is happening in the OEM channel from a business perspective.
It is no secret that the GM deal was and is an expensive deal for satellite radio. The Chrysler and Ford (F) deals are also expensive. These are the deals that carry larger installation subsidies, and carry large revenue share agreements.
A slowdown in production, and fewer installations by OEM partners that are more costly to SDARS, means that the vacuum left by GM and Chrysler will need to be filled by other auto manufacturers. This translates to a larger mix of installations that do not carry heavy revenue share deals. For satellite radio, this means that they get to keep more of the revenue from subscribers. This change will not be instantaneous. It will take time to flow into the metrics, but in the end, the more money that SDARS gets to keep, the better.
Now, the other consideration is that while the company is keeping more money, will other OEM partners step up in SDARS installations to a point where it can be material to Sirius XM Radio? For years, I tracked vehicle sales and estimated how production and sales translated to subscribers. That exercise has become more difficult because of the merger, as well as the fact that OEM sales have been decimated. The “constants” that once existed simply no longer exist in such a way that the data can deliver anything meaningful. OEM sales are down across the board. The main question is where installation rates are with each respective partner, and what the average revenue from OEM subs is now and will become in the coming quarters.
For now, Sirius XM should be able to realize some savings on installations. This will be the more immediate metric that investors will see changing. The real potential in the revenue share averages will take time to come to fruition, but if GM and Chrysler wind up being substantially downsized, two of the bigger OEM deals in SDARS will be contributing less to the cost side of the OEM channel.
Investors in Sirius XM would be well served to monitor ARPU, SAC, as well as CPGA in the coming quarters to see how these numbers are trending. Even if the subscriber numbers suffer, positive news on these metrics can demonstrate the effectiveness of the company in getting to profits.
The OEM channel as we once knew it no longer exists. Investors, if they have not already done so, need to rethink how deals such as GM and Chrysler impact satellite radio. If the car-buying public shifts to other brands, the metrics of the OEM channel as it relates to SDARS will need to be re-thought.
Car sales are important. Getting new subscribers exposed to the service is important, but what is most important is how the revenues from subscribers in this channel get to the bottom line, and how much cost is associated with making that happen.
Position - Long Sirius XM, No Position OEMs
Christkindl: Hier noch die Quelle....
fürs posten...worin gehts grob? bin gerade auf arbeit und habe keine zeit zu lesen und übersetzen!
Scheint aber positiv für Sirius zu sein oder??
Christkindl: bin auch
nimm einfach ein Übersetzungsprogramm und setz das ganze zusammen, mach ich auch immer......
Christkindl: da hab ich gleich noch was..
With Thursday's SEC filing by Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) comes a reminder of just who it is that is steering the ship. That would be John Malone. With 3 seats on the current board and the right to take 3 more, I thought I'd take this opportunity to review just what it is that Liberty Media (LCAPA) sees in Sirius XM.
This video interview with Greg Maffei, Liberty Media CEO & president, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo, demonstrates the insider perspective of the company going forward. One key point is the fact that Liberty sees Sirius XM as being profitable based on only a 9 - 10 million unit, annual auto sales rate. Just Wednesday, Goldman Sachs increased their projections to 11 million, which certainly puts Sirius XM in the driver's seat...literally!
Mr. Maffei goes on to describe the multiple platforms that Liberty envisions Sirius XM will be able to expand its subscriber base with. The Annual Shareholder Meeting scheduled for next month coincides with first quarter results. This will present an exceptional opportunity for the company to forge a definitive plan for growth.
Christkindl: Sirius XM: Automation, Not Manipulation
If I have not made it abundantly clear by now, I believe that stock prices are subject only to the law of supply and demand. Other factors can influence supply and demand, but in the end it really is as simple as that. So why would one or two market makers be selling so many shares at a given price despite an appearance that few real sellers actually exist based on level 2 trading platforms?
Market makers have an obligation to make a market in a stock, no matter what the market conditions are at the time. That means that if there are buyers of a security and there are no sellers, they must be the seller, and vice versa on the sell side. Leading up to late February, the mainstream media all but shut the doors at Sirius XM and the stock was driven down to a mere nickel a share.
As shares of Sirius XM were being sold off, there were very few people, and by people I mean institutional money managers, who were willing to buy the stock at the time. That means of course, that the market makers themselves were forced to accumulate HUGE inventories of Sirius XM stock.
These market makers I refer to are not people, but rather electronic trading programs with no emotion whatsoever. These programs can only ascertain that they carry a large supply relative to demand. I'm no expert in their programming, but I would venture a guess that there is an ideal range of shares that the computer will seek to maintain as inventory, based on current demand. If the inventory exceeds that number, the program will seek to lower its inventory of shares through automated share sales.
With nearly 4 billion shares outstanding, it took time to fall from several dollars a share to its nickel low. The same should be expected of its rise as well.
Position: Long SIRI
Christkindl: Next Leg of Growth for Sirius XM
"Thinking outside the box..., where does the next leg of growth come for this business?"
One of the answers given by Mr. Maffei seems to have been overlooked, but it is imperative that we revisit it at this time.
"The fact that you could have a certain amount of Satellite Radio which was free and available to all, not necessarily premium."
Finally! Speculation regarding a new chip patent that was approved 1 year ago, had made the claim that Satellite Radio could be broadcast as a subscriber based service with the added functionality of being able to provide a free ad supported format. This is actually the first time the company has spoken of it, as previously it had only been rumor and supposition on the part of blog posters.
With nearly as many inactive satellite radios on the market as there are subscribed radios, it appears that Sirius XM has found a solution going forward. Mr. Maffei defined the potential as "a certain amount" which begs the question of just how many receivers this entails. More likely than not, millions of radios have likely integrated this chip, even prior to its patent approval which had been filed on November 20, 2003!
I would surmise that the integration of this technology has already made its way into most of Sirius XM's proprietary portable receivers. It can take up to 5 years however to integrate new technologies into the OEM sector. That's not to say they aren't there in like numbers, just that it is less likely to have penetrated as deeply.
With nearly as many unsubscribed radios as subscribed in existence, the opportunity for growth through national advertising is certainly a positive. Upgrades to the subscriber based service are more likely as the ad supported format is likely to contain less content than the subscribed service.
Disclosure: Long SIRI
el presidente: ...
bei diesem papier kann man eigtl. nix falsch machen... die wird die 1 schon erreichen
Christkindl: SIRIUS XM to Announce First Quarter 2009 Results
NEW YORK, April 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News) today announced that it plans to release first quarter 2009 financial and operating results on Thursday, May 7, 2009.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20080819/NYTU044LOGO )
SIRIUS XM will hold a conference call at 8:00 am ET on Thursday, May 7, 2009 to discuss these results. Investors and the press can listen to the conference call via the company's website, www.sirius.com and on its satellite radio service by tuning to SIRIUS channel 126 or XM channel 90.
was denkt ihr wie die Q1-Zahlen ausfallen werden? Der Kursverlauf der letzten Tage hat mich ein wenig enttäuscht...ich bleibe trotzdem dabei und wenn es nochmal weiter runter gehen sollte lege ich nochmal ordentlich nach!!
hat nix zu sagen...die zahlen können auch schlecht aufallen und der kurs steigen!
Ich bin fest von Sirius überzeugt und glaube weiter an den 1€ dieses Jahr!!
Aktuell sieht es ja mit 0,41$ schon wieder besser aus:-)
sonnenkind: auch ein
doch an einen nachhaltigen anstieg glaube ich auch...
Ich habe 2 RT´s in denen nur 0,40$ als high angezeigt werden. Bei anderen wieder 0,41$......
Auf was soll man sich da noch verlassen???
die Möglichkeit besteht, dass wir die 0,35$ testen (wäre aber absoluter Tiefpunkt), aber an 1 Dollar in kürzester Zeit glaube ich auch....
war bei 0,42$ gestern...denke es geht heute weiter bergauf!
Denke nicht dass wir nochmal so stark unter die 40Cent rutschen werden! Ich persönlich habe einen EK von 0,32$ und der wird wohl nicht mehr erreicht werden denke ich. Sollten die Zahlen in Q1 gut ausgefallen sein, dann geht Sirius richtig nach NORDEN!!
Christkindl: UPDATE 1-Sirius XM plans to adopt poison pill
Sirius XM Radio Inc, (News) which is 40 percent controlled by
Liberty Media, plans to adopt a shareholder-rights
plan that makes hostile takeovers more difficult.
Under the plan -- known as a poison pill -- if any person or
group buys 4.9 percent or more of Sirius' outstanding shares of
common stock without the approval of the board, a significant
dilution in the voting and economic ownership of the investor
would occur, Sirius said on Wednesday.
The plan exempts future acquisitions of common stock by
Liberty Media's Liberty Radio LLC.
Analysts have said that Sirius, which was targeted by
EchoStar Corp earlier this year, could be an attractive
acquisition from a tax perspective because its net operating
losses can be carried forward to help offset taxes against
'Our net operating loss carry-forwards are an important
asset of the company; an asset that we believe we should make
every effort to protect,' said Sirius Chief Executive Mel
Karmazin. 'The rights plan is intended to enhance stockholder
value; it has not been implemented for defensive or
Denver-based Liberty Media, controlled by cable pioneer John
Malone, agreed to lend $530 million to Sirius in February in
exchange for a 40 percent equity stake, saving the debt-laden
satellite radio provider from possible bankruptcy.
The deal came after Charlie Ergen's satellite TV company
EchoStar had tried to take over Sirius XM by snapping up
hundreds of millions of dollars of its debt.
'It looks to me like Liberty is going to make sure no one
else can dilute their majority stake or otherwise take control
of Sirius so they have access to the NOL (net operating loss),'
said Kaufman Bros analyst Todd Mitchell.
Sirius said its board has approved the shareholder-rights
plan, which will be submitted for a stockholder vote by June 30,
2010. If stockholders do not approve the rights plan by this
date, it will terminate.
The rights plan will last until Aug. 1, 2011, unless
terminated by the board, Sirius said.
Liberty could not immediately be reached for comment.
Shares of Sirius were flat at 39.5 cents in extended
der große rücksetzer ärgert mich, weil bei 0,58 - 0,56 genug Zeit zum verkauf gewesen wäre
jetzt wieder nette einstiegskurse
Christkindl: geht mir nicht anders......
Würde an deiner Stelle den VK noch etwas niedriger sezten. 0,99 ist schon sehr eng.
sehen wir mind. 20% PLUS!!!!!
geile News oder???