A-Power Energy: China-Aktie im Aufwind
Quelle + Volltext: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10633075/1/...-surges.html?puc=_tscrss
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wenn es stimmt, werden wir am 03.dec.das Q3-ergebnis erfahren. das wesentliche an diesem termin dürfte wohl der ausblick ab/für 2010 sein (the government announced a doubling of its environmental budget to $454 billion through 2015) nicht zu vergessen die aktuelle auftragslage; wer weiß, was da noch mittelfristig folgen wird und der bereits fest vereinbarte bau des standortes in den USA. alles in allem einfach nur G I G A N T I S C H.......
"New investors welcome! You MUST read this 25-Nov-09 11:33 pm 1. Welcome aboard!
2. You need to know that APWR is still significantly undervalued. My personal opinion is that APWR has a forward PE of something around 3 based on upcoming contracts.
3. Why is APWR so cheap? There is a perception that APWR has failed to deliver in the past. This is true, but there are some pretty substantial mitigating circumstances. First obviously being the worldwide financial crisis. Many projects that were almost ready for execution had to be delayed. Another example is our Distributed Power Generation (DPG) deal with Thailand. Our CEO Mr Lu said in April that the $300M deal could close in June/July. Well here we are almost in December and it still hasn't closed. The political instability in Thailand has at least temporarily delayed that project longer than we could have anticipated. Another completely bogus argument is that "APWR has missed earnings the last 2 quarters". That is an absolute lie. Up to this point, APWR's bread and butter is with DPG projects. DPG projects are very expensive and the financing is complicated. For this reason, the company does not give Quarterly guidance. They only give annual Guidance. APWR has revised annual guidance UP once or twice this year. They missed nothing in Q1 and Q2.
4. We are anticipating a huge contract with US-Reg and Ceilo to build a 1.5 billion dollar wind farm in Texas. December 22nd is the deadline to close the deal and as best we can tell, everything looks good.
5. APWR has a binding MOU with Macau Natural Gas to develop a LNG plant. Initially a 1.5 billion dollar contract but phase 2 will likely be another 1.5-2 billion dollar contract. Mr Lu said the deal could close in 2009. Risk is low here since this is purely a Chinese deal and we just saw China is doubling spending on green energy projects.
6. Although delayed, the Thailand deal is still out there. We know our $300+ million dollar deal has been "expanded". That is still on the horizon.
7. Mr Lu, our CEO, is plain brilliant. He founded APWR after frustrations with inefficiencies with transmission loss in the national power grid. APWR's flagship DPG business allows power to be produced much closer to the customer and is far more efficient. Mr Lu is also totally in bed with the Chinese government. We recently stole, I mean stole, Evatech Solar in a buyout. Mr Lu talked the local government into funding something like 50% of the purchase price. Evatech solar will generate "$100 million" for APWR. Unknown if that means profit or if it means revenue. Margins will be a whopping 40% in a few years. Mr Lu has also formed the Shenyang Power Group (SPG), a consortium of Shenyang heavy equipment makers and local government. The plan is to take SPG public at some point. Mr Lu is SPG's CEO. APWR own's 60% of SPG, however we have apparently given up some ownership in exchange for something (presumably capital). These details should emerge soon.
8. APWR is the king of partnerships (re: Mr Lu, genius). Roughly ~25% of a wind turbine is the Gearbox. APWR and GE are building a gearbox plant in Shenyang and it will be operational in the fall of 2010. APWR will make 25% of the profits from the factory.
9. There are rumors of other major DPG deals in the works in the following countries: Thailand, Nigeria, India, Vietnam, Pakistan. There are also rumors of APWR entering the hydroelectric power arena.
10. APWR is developing 1 or 2 wind turbine factories in the United States. APWR also has the rights to sell turbines to South America.
11. APWR has the rights to 7 massive wind farms in Northern China. They also will at some point build the Bayan Nur wind factory. APWR can also expand their current factory (the biggest in China) by 30%."
(continued)
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da werden die par Shortis die noch drin sind bald kalte Füße bekommen .
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And understand please that we are not near capacity for 2010 yet. We have orders for 19.5+49.5+600=626MW already booked. Nobody listening closely missed that Cielo has a backlog of 4000MW of turbine orders. Does anybody think that Lu and Fuhrlander would build a plant that is capable of making 1100MW of turbines in the USA if they didn't have some buyers already lined up. Anyone who has watched Lu should suspect at this point that he doesn't take a step unless he's secured his footing with large security.
Darth's projection of $135 will come sooner than anyone can imagine. Ski likes to play it conservative, probably because he's been burned by getting too far ahead in the past. Take a look at FSLR's PE ratio as it moved from 50 to 300. Early on it's PE was over 100. The PE didn't settle out to 30 until after their earnings flattened.
Sentiment : Strong Buy"
gruss yosemite
Re: Premarket.......$18.10 1 minute ago Baffles me why people would give their shares away at such low prices.
Von Fischen lernen: Im dichten Schwarm erzeugen manche Windräder mehr Energie
Laut Berechnungen können Windfarmen deutlich kleiner geraten, wenn Turbinen mit senkrechter Achse zum Einsatz kommen und dicht beieinander stehen
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Minneapolis (USA) - Windfarmen stören vor allem, weil die einzelnen Windräder wegen der Luftverwirbelung Abstand voneinander brauchen. Damit verteilen sich der Lärm und andere Nachteile auf eine große Fläche. Jetzt präsentieren US-Forscher eine mögliche Lösung: Nutzt man einen anderen, heute vernachlässigten Typ der Windturbine, dessen Drehachse senkrecht statt waagerecht steht, so profitieren die Turbinen sogar vom engen Beieinanderstehen. In spezieller Anordnung können sie pro Fläche sogar mehr als hundertmal so viel Energie erzeugen wie die heute gebräuchlichen Anlagen, zeigen Computersimulationen. Das entspricht dem Effekt in Fischschwärmen, wo die einzelnen Tiere so hintereinander schwimmen, dass sie die vorn erzeugten Wirbel nutzen und weniger Schwimmenergie benötigen. Die Forscher präsentierten ihre Berechnungen auf dem 62. Jahrestreffen der APS Division of Fluid Dynamics. Als nächstes wollen sie die Simulation in Testanlagen umsetzen.
Quelle: http://www.weltderphysik.de/de/4245.php?ni=1674
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Alternative Energy Losers: A-Power Energy
By Eric Rosenbaum 12/01/09 - 05:06 PM EST
LIAONING, China (TheStreet) -- Almost every stock in the Chinese alternative energy space was surging on Tuesday afternoon -- all but one: A-Power Energy Generation Systems(APWR Quote). A-Power also happens to be one of the last Chinese alternative energy stocks with an earnings report still to come this week, on Thursday morning.
ost of A-Power's Chinese peers -- primarily in the solar as opposed to wind-turbine area where A-Power is strongest -- had earnings stacked toward the end of the season. The general outperformance of the Chinese solar players has created a momentum atmosphere in sector. A-Power had benefitted from that momentum surge also, with a huge run-up in its shares to a 52-week high recently, and was up more than $5 in the past two weeks.
The momentum story was the same on Tuesday's trading day, with players like LDK Solar(LDK Quote) at close to a 5% gain, and up almost as much as A-Power was down.
A-Power closed with a 6% loss on the day and was trading down in after-hours also. With its earnings only two days away and every other stock in the sector flying toward the sun on Tuesday, what's behind A-Power's sudden fall from grace among investors?
Granted, the stock is still in heady territory at $16.16, much closer to its 42-week high of $18.70 than its low of $3. Still, the sell-off in the A-Power shares could represent two important trends: First, the momentum swing that has dominated among Chinese alternative energy players of late takes away gains as quickly as it generates them. Short interest in A-Power has been strong, as a result. Second, after several earnings misses in recent quarters, the market may not have the confidence in A-Power to deliver on Thursday morning when it reports.
The huge run-up around the recent earnings in the sector and the Chinese stimulus package could benefit these companies in the long-term -- but with A-Power, people get nervous around the quarterly numbers," said one sector analyst who did not want to be named when talking about A-Power's big talk, and little delivery in past earnings reports.
In the last several quarters they have missed their estimates by as much as $10 million to $20 million."
On the positive side, the Chinese market, where A-Power's business is primarily based, appears to be recovering. However, many of the big projects for which the company has received a great deal of recent press -- such as a wind-turbine farm in West Texas -- often take much longer to be developed than to simply announce.
"The Texas wind farm has not even been approved yet," the sector analyst noted.
What will it take for A-Power to reverse today's selling trend? On Thursday morning, A-Power may need to come up with a meaningful surprise in its earnings. Still, investors should not expect that even as they hope for it.
"With A-Power, there is always reason to be nervous," the analyst said.
-- Reported by Eric Rosenbaum in New York
Alle anderen können nachkaufen, die Aussichten sind
weiterhin sehr gut.
mc