Banken in der Eurozone

ESMA prüft nun den CDS-Markt: Die Kurskapriolen bei der Deutschen Bank haben nun die ESMA bewogen, sich das marktenge Segment der Credit Default Swaps (CDS) noch genauer anzusehen.
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...rchschritten-381890?page=64#jumppos1607
Former Credit Suisse CEO:  Thiam said at the FII Institute’s Priority summit in Miami Beach. “After the euro market closes speculators go and short the CDS; increase the spread on the CDS, then you get articles saying that Deutsche is going bankrupt, and then they go into the ADR market, which is very illiquid, where they take a position and make good money.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/...he-bank-slump-on-speculators-1.1902679  

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU’s financial markets regulator and supervisor, has today published a Public Statement on the DTO in the context of the migration of credit default swap contracts out of ICE Clear Europe.
https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/...nd_CDS_clearing.pdf  

In den vergangenen zwei Jahrzehnten dominierte die Credit Suisse Group das Geschäft mit der Emission von Anleihen in Schweizer Franken. Der plötzliche Kollaps des Instituts eröffnet anderen Akteuren im Sektor wie der Deutsche Bank und der BNP Paribas Chancen.
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...-geht-da-was-355095?page=40#jumppos1016  

> Wurde der CDS-Markt manipuliert? ESMA prüft nun den CDS-Markt
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...rchschritten-381890?page=64#jumppos1607

Es wird langsam immer klarer was bei den Angriffen auf die Credit Suisse und Deutsche Bank gelaufen ist und warum, da sich das Zeitfenster für derartige perfiden Manipulationsangriffe droht mit den neuen SEC Regeln zum SBS Positionsreporting endgültig zu schließen, wurde die "Chance" jetzt nochmal schnell genutzt: New SEC rules for security-based swap (SBS) position reporting are  designed to combat the potential for fraud and manipulation in single-name CDS.
Under the security-based swap (SBS) position reporting measure, known as section 10B-1, parties that exceed a net $150 million long or short position, or a gross $300 million position, in a single-name CDS will have to disclose the position
https://www.risk.net/investing/7956388/...p-cds-liquidity-say-traders
The proposed Securities and Exchange Commission rules would shine a light on traders building up large single-name positions, and are designed in part to avoid the so-called manufactured credit events of recent years – where hedge funds engineered payouts on CDS contracts.
https://www.risk.net/derivatives/7931141/...nti-fraud-cds-rules-again  

Die hohe Kerninflation im Euro-Raum besorgt die Notenbanker.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/...ub/29072560.html
problematic for any ECB doves, core EU CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco), rose 4bp to a new record high
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...line-falls-energy-costs-collapse

P.S.: Nahrungsmittelpreise stiegen mit einer neuen Rekordrate von +22,3%
https://www.querschuesse.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/u3059.webp
 

Blackrock reagiert auf die Ereignisse und ändert nun sein Investment Playbook: 2023 Global Outlook - Q2 update: More damage is emerging - Blackrock's new investment playbook in action: The banking tumult on both sides of the Atlantic has made crystal clear how important it is to stay nimble and update investment views in real time. This is the new playbook in action amid the volatile economic and market regime. More damage is emerging: Across a swath of different measures, we are seeing economic damage emerge. These include housing, industrial and consumer indicators. Credit conditions were already tightening before the bank turmoil, and we expect them to tighten further. Financial crisis this all reinforces our recession view.
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/...institute/outlook
 

Blackrock - Damage Emerging: "We don’t expect central banks to come to the rescue." The bank tumult has reinforced our recession view.
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/...k#damage-emerging  

Pricing the damage: Financial cracks and economic damage are emerging from the fastest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/...new-investment-playbook-in-action
An update on Blackrock fund exposure to recent market events
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/...ation/us-40-act-mf-svb.pdf  

Konjunkturprognose privater Banken: Stagnation statt Rezession: Die Deutsche Wirtschaft erwartet 2023 eine Stagnation. Das sind jedoch gute Nachrichten, nachdem zunächst eine Rezession erwartet wurde. Was die Privatbanken in ihrer Frühjahrsprognose erwarten.  
https://www.private-banking-magazin.de/...anken-stagnation-inflation/

Also jetzt freut euch gefälligst alle mal ein bisschen an diesem DOFL Tag der Langen Gesichter. Gürtel einfach enger schnallen und bisschen am Hungertuch nagen.
https://www.querschuesse.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/u3059.webp  

Blackrock-Chef Larry Fink über die „stille Krise“ ... Seit der Finanzkrise von 2008 wurden die Märkte von einer außerordentlich aggressiven Finanz- und Geldpolitik bestimmt. Als Folge dieser Politik ist die Inflation so stark angestiegen wie seit den 1980er Jahren nicht mehr. Dies ist der Preis, den wir für die jahrelange lockere Geldpolitik zahlen – und war der erste Dominostein, der fiel. Wir erleben die größte Bankenpleite seit mehr als 15 Jahren. Es ist noch zu früh, um zu wissen, wie groß der Schaden ist. Das Missverhältnis zwischen Aktiva und Passiva könnte der zweite Dominostein sein, der fällt.
https://www.private-banking-magazin.de/...arry-fink-ueber-die-stille/
 

... neues Glück. Spacs kann ja langsam niemand mehr hören, also der kommende "heiße Scheiß" sind jetzt aufgewärmte Eltifs. Die überarbeitet Eltif-Verordnung soll dann voraussichtlich im ersten Quartal 2024 kommen. Also heizt den Eltif Markt schon mal richtig an, ihr "DOFL"er.  

„Wir gehen davon aus, dass sich der Eltif-Markt in den nächsten Jahren verdreifachen wird“, sagt West Lockhart, Leiter Vermögensmanagement im Emea-Raum (Head of Wealth EMEA) bei Blackrock
https://www.private-banking-magazin.de/...t-private-equity-eltif-auf/
 

Clearing of individual bank or company CDS is also available at LCH’s CDSClear and ICE Clear Credit. For example, LCH offers clearing in over 300 European corporate names, including both Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, as well as other big lenders such as Barclays, BNP Paribas, and HSBC.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/...king-blow-ups-2023-03-30/

Na dann sage ich jetzt schon mal: Cheers! "ICE clears Europe"
https://www.fia.org/fia/margin-breaches

Ice Clear Credit worst-case liquidity scenario worsens. Estimated largest payment obligation at highest ever level in euros. The amount of money that Ice Clear Credit would have to pay following the default of one of its clearing members surged to a new high in euros in the last quarter of 2022. The change was driven by market volatility.
https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956259/...scenario-worsens-by-half

Public statement on the derivative trading obligation in the context of the migration of credit default swap contracts out of ICE Clear Europe
https://www.esma.europa.eu/document/...-migration-credit-default-swap  

Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at the National Association for Business Economics 39th Annual Economic Policy Conference: We must also address vulnerabilities in the nonbank sector. Some nonbanks – or “shadow banks” – consist of financial companies that carry out traditional banking functions, but are outside of, or only loosely linked to, depository institutions. They have grown substantially in the past few decades. In the United States, credit provided by nonbanks – measured relative to GDP – has more than doubled from 1985 to today.
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1376  

Massive unrealized losses are a Pandora’s box for banks
https://fortune.com/2023/03/31/...-losses-pandoras-box-credit-crunch/  

Der Eltif 2.0 – eine neue Welt für „Otto Normalanleger“

Nach der im Februar vom Europäischen Parlament verabschiedeten Eltif-Reform, wird sich in absehbarer Zeit einiges ändern. Dirk Holz, Geschäftsführer von Commerz Real Fonds Management, über die in seinen Augen vier wichtigsten Änderungen und warum Eltifs nun endlich ihr volles Potenzial entfalten können und das auch müssen.

https://www.private-banking-magazin.de/...0-eine-neue-welt-fuer-otto/  

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system: over half of all respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high or very high
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/systemic-risk-survey/2023/2023-h1
Financial Policy Summary and Record - March 2023: There is an urgent need to increase resilience of shadow banks. Non-bank financial institutions need more resilience.  Disruption in UK government debt markets revealed vulnerabilities in certain funds used by UK pension schemes. These funds are known as liability-driven investment (LDI) funds*. Moreover, Money Market funds (MMFs) play a key role in the UK financial system. MMFs are vulnerable to rapid and large investor withdrawals and could be a source of risk to the financial system and the wider economy.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/...summary-and-record/2023/march-2023
*An anatomy of the 2022 gilt market crisis
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/...2-gilt-market-crisis

On a sidenote: The final countdown: Europe’s pension funds get ready to clear
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-eurozone-472954?page=310#jumppos7764  

Large European Banks Quarterly Credit Tracker:  further increases to net interest margins will decline because pass-through rates increase, loan growth has slowed substantially, and  loan-impairment charges will further increase given the weak economic outlook.
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/...-march-2023-30-03-2023
 

Canary In The Coal Mine - The Big Short 2.0:  a rout in the shadow banks might lead to a “ credit event”.
The non-financial corporate debt as % of GDP has climbed to more than 50%. And guess what? The leverage came from Leverage Loans which are up 2.5X and Private Credit from virtually zero to $1.3 trillion!
https://marqueefinancebysagar.substack.com/p/the-big-short-20
Wenn demächst die schön gebündelten und verpackten LBOs und NAVs mit den weiter steigenen Notenbankzinsen hochgehen, geht es los:
The new LBO market: it’s gone private: Increasing shift to non-public financing raises risks over the transparency of companies and their debt
https://www.ft.com/content/0758d47f-ed50-47b5-bea1-20946271bc6a
NAV Financing: “An increasingly popular area is net-asset-value lending, a type of borrowing where buyout firms raise money against a bundle of assets they own. As sponsors struggle to sell businesses amid rising rates and challenging financing markets, they increasingly rely on such loans to shore up portfolio companies and keep distributing money back to their investors.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...den-leverage-in-the-system  

Diese deutschen Banken wagen sich weiter ins lukrative LBO-Geschäft vor: Die Kreditfinanzierung von Leveraged Buyouts (LBO) ist sehr rentabel, sofern es nicht zu Ausfällen kommt. Vor diesem Hintergrund will das Sparkassenlager ein größeres Stück vom Kuchen. Aber auch die Genossenschaftsbanken haben langsam Blut geleckt.
https://www.institutional-money.com/news/...lbo-geschaeft-vor-222748/
Deutsche Bank sees opportunities in the leveraged finance market
https://www.thebanker.com/Markets/Capital-Mkts/...aged-finance-market

... "wenn es nicht  zu Ausfällen kommt" ...
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/...den-risiken_id_189653435.html  

SEC Prohibition Against Conflicts of Interest in Certain Securitizations: The Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC” or “Commission”) is reissuing and revising a proposal that was initially published in September 2011 that would implement a provision under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 (“Dodd-Frank Act”) prohibiting an underwriter, placement agent, initial purchaser, or sponsor of an asset-backed security (including a synthetic asset-backed security), or any affiliate or subsidiary of any such entity, from engaging in any transaction that would involve or result in
certain material conflicts of interest
https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2023/33-11151.pdf
Proposed Rule 192 - “Conflicts of Interest Relating to Certain Securitizations”
https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-01-23/s70123-20161806-330705.pdf
AFME Comments on the Proposed Rule 192 Under the Securities Act of 1933
https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-01-23/s70123-20161781-330600.pdf  

Rule 192 – US conflicts rule may hit UK and European securitisations and repackagings: Securitisation participants in the UK and EU should be aware of Rule 192 and its potential, if introduced without amendment, to have a significant impact on their securitisation and repackaging businesses.
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/...-and-repackagings  

Eltif-Markt in Europa wächst kräftig – und Deutschland hinkt hinterher: Der Markt für European Long Term Investment Funds (Eltifs) wächst – sowohl mit Blick auf das Volumen als auch auf die Zahl der Produkte. Das zeigt die neue Eltif-Marktstudie des Analysehauses Scope.
https://www.private-banking-magazin.de/...h-deutschland-privatkunden/  

Swiss prosecutor opens probe into CS takeover: Swiss prosecutor investigates Credit Suisse takeover: Switzerland’s Federal Prosecutor has opened an investigation into the state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS Group
https://www.ariva.de/forum/...-geht-da-was-355095?page=40#jumppos1021  

Before collapse, Credit Suisse projected lowest cash outflows since 2018
https://www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956335/...cash-outflows-since-2017