Nach der Kaufpanik ist vor der Kaufpanik
Nie war dieser Tipp so wertvoll wie heute, denn die Renten sind abgekackt und die Aktien nach oben geschossen.
Und das wird so weiter gehen, obwohl Ihr vielleicht glaubt, dass das nicht geht. Aber das wird noch lange so gehen, denn zu einer Kapitalmarktrendite von 3% gehört nun einmal ein KGV von 33. Und diese Gegensätze müssen sich irgendwie ausgleichen.
So erhöhte sich der entsprechende Index gegenüber dem Vormonat um 6,7 Prozent, wogegen Volkswirte ein Plus von 0,5 Prozent prognostiziert hatten. Für den Vormonat wurde ein Anstieg von 3,2 Prozent ausgewiesen. (02.06.2009/ac/n/m)
Quelle: letzte Ausgabe von Euro am Sonntag
Aus einer Grafik in dieser Quelle kann man entnehmen, dass der demografisache Neubedarf bei 1,75 MIllionen Wohnungen liegt, moementan aber nur 500.000 gebaut werden. Daher sind alle Märchen über eine jahrelange Krise Unsinn, vor allem Vergleiche mit schrumpfenden und alternden Gesellschaften wie Japan.
Wenn man bedenkt, wie schnell GM Hummer verkaufen kann und andere Marken auch, dann war doch fast alles schon im Hintergrund geregelt worden.
Sollte der Staat ca. 400 Mio GM Aktien im neuen GM-Unternehmen zu 25 Dollar das Stück seine Anteile verkaufen, dann würde der US-Staat ca. 1 Billion einnehmen. Wenn man bedenkt wie hoch die Kosten dafür waren. Auch 50 Dollar pro Aktie würden mich bei GM nicht abschrecken, denn GM wird in 18 Monaten spätestens der profitabelste Automobilbauer der Welt sein. Klingt zwar komisch, ist aber so.
Gruß Marlboromann
Der Dollar schwächt sich gerade ziehmlich ab. Das mag vielleicht gut sein für die US-Schulden und den Export aber die Rohstoffpreise, vorallem Öl, werden dadurch teurer.
Es bleibt spannend.
Das geht mit Hilfe von Alterspyramiden ganz simpel und vor allem auch sehr langfristig. Dein Vergleich mit Charts ist lächerlich.
http://www.ftd.de/lifestyle/outofoffice/...noch-in-Bagdad/517203.html
Optionen
New Plan From Delphi to Leave Bankruptcy
As General Motors went into bankruptcy protection on Monday, Delphi, a former unit of the giant automaker, disclosed a new plan to leave it.
Delphi, an auto parts supplier that has languished in bankruptcy for nearly four years, said on Monday that it had reached an agreement to sell most of its assets to Platinum Equity, a private equity firm specializing in distressed companies.
The deal has the backing of the federal government, and Delphi’s fate weighed heavily on the carmaker, because a liquidation of the supplier — long considered a possibility — would have dealt G.M., still a major customer, a severe blow.
As part of the proposed deal, G.M. will buy back certain Delphi businesses, including its steering parts operations. G.M. will also provide Delphi with $250 million in capital to keep it afloat through July 31.
“After an extended period of complex and challenging discussions with a wide range of stakeholders, we are confident that these modifications to our confirmed plan of reorganization will provide a resolution that will allow Delphi to emerge from Chapter 11,” Rodney O’Neal, Delphi’s chief executive, said in a statement.
Delphi hopes to emerge from bankruptcy by modifying its existing plan of reorganization, which collapsed last year when a group of investors balked at providing $2.55 billion as part of an exit financing package. Under the terms of an amended plan, Platinum would invest $3.6 billion in Delphi in return for taking over most of the supplier.
Plans of reorganization require approval from each class of a company’s creditors, which makes this proposed restructuring more difficult, because talks with those investors have broken off. The investors, mostly hedge funds, had demanded greater compensation for their claims.
But Delphi is also considering an alternative plan, one in which it would sell those assets through the same procedure G.M. hopes to use to refashion itself.
A hearing to discuss modifications to Delphi’s restructuring plan scheduled for Tuesday was canceled, and a hearing on final approval for either transaction is scheduled for July 23.
In recent weeks, Delphi has held talks with the Obama administration’s auto task force, G.M. and its lenders over potential plans to lift it out of bankruptcy.
The judge overseeing the case ordered the company, G.M. and the task force into mediation last month to help broker a deal.
Delphi has reported an operating loss nearly every year since 1999, when it was spun off from G.M. Since filing for bankruptcy, it has been kept alive largely through $11 billion in support from G.M.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/business/02delphi.html
Die Zahl derjenigen, die in den USA einen Führerschein machen bzw. in der nächsten Zeit machen werden, ist aus demografischen Gründen nach oben geschnellt. Und wer einen Führerschein macht, braucht auch ein Auto - und wenn man bedenkt, dass allein im April die Einkommen in den USA um 0.5% gestiegen sind, kann man sich das auch leisten.
http://www.silicon-sensor.com/ag/ger/index.htm
http://www.ariva.de/quote/profile.m?secu=227&kx=s
On Tuesday June 2, 2009, 1:19 pm EDT
Buzz up! Print Related:Ford Motor Co., MGM Mirage
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. distressed debt, among the hardest hit asset classes last year, has become the best, with returns of 39.5 percent year to date as risk appetite improves, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
F 6.39 +0.26
MGM 7.93 -0.43
{"s" : "f,mgm","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""} For the month of May, distressed debt was second only to emerging market equities after returning 25.4 percent, Bank of America Merrill said in a research note late on Monday.
Distressed issuers are those whose bond spreads trade at or above 1,000 basis points over comparable Treasuries.
Distressed issuers drove 95 percent of the strong performance of the U S. high-yield corporate bond market in May as a resurgence of new debt sales improved sentiment, the report said.
"Some deeply distressed issuers were able to access new issue markets and enjoyed significant improvements in pricing of their existing bonds as a result," said Oleg Melentyev, lead author of the report.
Companies including Ford Motor Co's (NYSE:F - News) finance arm, Harrah's Entertainment and MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM - News) sold more than $23 billion in junk bonds in May, the most since the credit crisis started in mid-2007, according to Thomson Reuters data.
The high-yield cash market outperformed high-yield derivatives by 2 percentage points in May, the report said. The main index of high-yield credit default swaps returned 5.1 percent while Merrill Lynch's high-yield Master II index returned 7.1 percent.
The junk bond market has retraced all of the losses it sustained in the financial meltdown late last year, Melentyev said.
(Reporting by Tom Ryan; Additional reporting by Dena Aubin; Editing by James Dalgleish)
16:15 03.06.09
Washington (aktiencheck.de AG) - Der Auftragseingang langlebiger Güter ist im April 2009 angewachsen. Dies teilte das US-Handelsministerium in Washington am Mittwoch mit.
Der Auftragseingang der Industrie erhöhte sich um 0,7 Prozent, nachdem im Vormonat noch ein Minus von 1,9 Prozent ausgewiesen worden war. Volkswirte hatten zuvor ein Plus von 0,9 Prozent erwartet.
Bei den Gütern mit einer Nutzungsdauer von über drei Jahren lag die Zahl der Bestellungen um 1,7 Prozent (vorläufig: +1,9 Prozent) über dem Vormonatsniveau. Für März wurde ein Minus von 2,2 Prozent ausgewiesen.
Die Auftragsentwicklung langlebiger Güter dient als Signal für die Investitionsneigung der Unternehmen. Jedoch gilt sie als nicht sehr verlässlicher Indikator, da Großaufträge zu starken Schwankungen führen. Volkswirte erwarten erst bei einem kräftigen Anziehen der Investitionsnachfrage einen nachhaltigen Wirtschaftsaufschwung. (03.06.2009/ac/n/m)
Bernanke: Recovery will be slow
Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer
On Wednesday June 3, 2009, 10:37 am EDT
Buzz up! Print Data suggest the economic contraction may be slowing, but the economy is hardly out of the woods, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Wednesday.
"A number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions," Bernanke said.
Bernanke said he still anticipates that the economy will start its recovery later this year, but cautioned that "recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring and the unemployment rate is likely to rise for a time, even after economic growth resumes."
The Federal Reserve expects that the growth in inflation this year will be less than it was in 2008.
Bernanke also sounded concern regarding the country's long-term fiscal situation.
The country's near-term actions -- which include dedicating $700 billion to stabilize the financial system and a $787 billion economic recovery package -- were necessary, he said.
Nevertheless, he added, "maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we, as a nation, begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance."
Among the tough choices facing lawmakers will be to decide what size of government they want going forward and ensuring that tax rates are sufficient to provide enough revenue to balance out the country's spending priorities in the years ahead.
"Near-term challenges must not be allowed to hinder timely consideration of the steps needed to address fiscal imbalances."
Könnt Ihr Euch erklären, warum der Weltuntergang und seine Lemminge das Zurückhalten von Aufträgen als Weltuntergang erklärt und das Nachholen nicht als Korrektur des Weltuntergangs?
16:17 03.06.09
Washington (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Geschäftsaktivitäten des Dienstleistungsgewerbes in den USA haben sich im Mai 2009 verbessert. Dies teilte das Institut for Supply Management (ISM), eine private Organisation der Industrie, am Montag mit.
So stieg der ISM-Index von 43,7 Zählern im Vormonat auf nun 44,0 Zähler. Volkswirte waren von einem Anstieg auf 45,0 Punkten ausgegangen.
Ein Wert des US-Konjunkturbarometers über der Grenze von 50 Punkten wird als Verbesserung bewertet, ein Wert unter 50 Punkten signalisiert dagegen einen Abschwung im Dienstleistungs-Gewerbe. (03.06.2009/ac/n/m)
Fed-Chef verwahrt sich gegen Merkels Vorwürfe
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Ben Bernanke
03. Juni 2009 Die Differenzen zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und Deutschland beim Vorgehen gegen die Finanzkrise sind am Mittwoch in ungewohnt offener Form zutage getreten. Der amerikanische Zentralbankchef Ben Bernanke verwahrte sich in einer Anhörung vor dem Kongress in Washington gegen die Kritik von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) an den geldpolitischen Maßnahmen seines Instituts. Er stimme „mit allem Respekt nicht mit ihrer Sichtweise überein“, sagte Bernanke über Merkels Äußerungen.
Die Bundeskanzlerin hatte am Vortag in einer Rede in Berlin Kritik an der von der Fed beschlossenen Lockerung der Geldpolitik und an den massiven Ankäufen von Staatsanleihen geübt (siehe Merkel ruft Notenbanken zur Ordnung). Die Kanzlerin hatte dabei die Rückkehr zu einer „unabhängigen Notenbankpolitik“ und einer „Politik der Vernunft“ angemahnt. Ausdrücklich hatte sie die amerikanische Notenbank Fed genannt, deren erweiterte Vollmachten sie „mit großer Skepsis“ betrachte.
Bernanke hielt der Kanzlerin indirekt vor, das Ausmaß der gegenwärtigen Krise zu verkennen. „Die Wirtschaft in den Vereinigten Staaten ebenso wie jene in Deutschland steht einer außergewöhnlichen Kombination aus einer Finanzkrise und einem tiefen Einbruch wirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten gegenüber“, sagte Bernanke vor dem Haushaltsausschuss des amerikanuischen Kongresses. „In diesem Kontext glaube ich, dass entschlossene Maßnahmen in der Haushalts- und Geldpolitik gerechtfertigt sind, um eine weitere Vertiefung der Krise zu vermeiden.“
Öffentliche Kritik von Regierungschefs an den Notenbanken befreundeter Staaten gilt als ungewöhnlich, eine öffentliche Erwiderung darauf ebenfalls.
I am glad that I have no investments in the UK. Neither long, nor short. I am convinced that it’s in trouble. I am worried about the US. I have sold nearly all of my US dollars. I always had some as I am an American citizen. But I see serious problems developing there. Those two of the big developed countries are the ones that I see with the most likely problems.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/06/...s-june-2009.html
Friday, May 29, 2009 posted by cversace
As I write this column, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is down 1 percent for 2009 so far, but it is up nearly 34 percent since its early March lows.
Some are questioning the strength in the market amid recent sobering outlooks from such companies as Polo and Charming Shoppes, and the recent rise in interest rates. On the other hand, others take a longer-term view and will cite certain sectors as cheap, meaning that stock valuations remain compelling even after the market run-up. Most, and I lump myself into this camp, look for data points, be they economic in nature or more industry-specific, to gauge whether we are at a turning point in the market. In my opinion - while there is no silver bullet - a blended approach is often best when deciphering the tea leaves of the stock market.
One such indicator is the health of the initial public offering (IPO). As background, an IPO is when a company issues common stock to the public for the first time. In general, IPOs are completed by smaller, younger companies that are backed by venture capital and need more capital to fuel their growth plans. As many might remember, the IPO market was rather heady back in the Internet bubble period nearly a decade ago before it collapsed in late 2001 and 2002.
Gerald Celente Gold will shoot to the roof the dollar will collapse unenployment will rise
The bailout bubble the bubble to end all bubbles...."When this bubble bursts it will be over. This bubble is huge and it’s being blown up before our eyes."
you are gonna see real decline in dollar and rising of the the gold
The FED inflated the bailout bubble with phantom money printed out of thin air
"We are going to start seeing a real decline in the dollar and a rise in gold prices. That’s going to be a real big signal for those looking on early. The later signals of course will be massive unemployment and a decline in GDP. That will follow."
We are already seeing it. It’s coming out of China, it’s coming out of Brazil. They’re already saying we don’t want to deal in dollars any more.
When This bubble blows the whole world blows with it , This is the decline of empire America.
http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2009/05/...hoot-to-roof.html
Bernanke sees recession ending soon; warns on debt
On Wednesday June 3, 2009, 2:54 pm EDT
Buzz up! Print By Emily Kaiser and Mark Felsenthal
Reuters - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Budget Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington June 3, ...
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded a cautiously upbeat note on the U.S. economy on Wednesday but warned that corralling government debt was vital to ensuring the nation's long-term health.
In testimony to Congress, Bernanke sounded more confident that the U.S. recession would end this year than he had just one month ago, and he said the risk of a dangerous downward spiral in prices had receded.
Delivering a message that appeared aimed at soothing jittery financial markets and reassuring foreign investors that the United States would get a grip on its budget once the economic crisis has passed, Bernanke said rising deficits posed a significant long-term threat.
"Maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we, as a nation, begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance," Bernanke told the House of Representatives' Budget Committee.
"Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth."
He said rising debt was contributing to a jump in longer-term interest rates. However, he gave no clue as to whether the U.S. central bank would step up its purchases of government and mortgage-related debt to keep rates low, something investors have been watching for.
Financial markets largely shrugged off Bernanke's testimony, with weaker-than-expected economic data driving prices for U.S. stocks down and Treasury debt up.
U.S. President Barack Obama has said big deficits are a necessary evil while the economy is suffering from the credit and housing market busts, and that once the crisis has passed, the focus will shift to shoring up the fiscal position.
That is a critical issue for countries such as China that hold hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. government debt. If the United States is unable to control its long-term deficits, it could weaken the dollar and drive up inflation, hurting the value of those dollar-denominated assets.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, on his first visit to China as Treasury chief this week, sought to reassure Beijing that the United States was committed to living within its means.
Sources in China, Japan, India and South Korea told Reuters central banks in those countries, which together control about half of the world's foreign exchange reserves, would keep buying U.S. government debt even if the United States' sovereign credit rating were cut.
'FAINT WARNING BELLS'
While offering a rosier assessment of the economy, Bernanke acknowledged that even after a recovery gets under way, growth would likely remain below its potential for a while.
"We now are on a process of slow and gradual repair, both in the financial system and the economy," he said. "We averted, I think, a very, very serious calamity."
He said financial markets had improved, thanks in part to the Fed's efforts to restore lending, but he also took note of the recent spike in yields on longer-term Treasury debt and fixed-rate mortgages, which some analysts worry could choke off an economic recovery.
"These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows, and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings," Bernanke said.
The Fed has committed to buy up to $300 billion in Treasury debt and $1.45 trillion in mortgage-related debt, but some economists have called for even more purchases to counteract the rise in interest rates.
Representative Paul Ryan, the top Republican on the panel, said the rising bond yields were "telling us that there is no free lunch," and cautioned that the combination of huge debt issuance and central bank buying could be dangerous.
"The Treasury is issuing debt and the central bank is buying it," Ryan told Bernanke. "It gives the alarming impression that the U.S. one day might begin to meet its financial obligations by simply printing money."
That could trigger inflation, and Ryan said there were already "faint warning bells" of inflation going off as evidenced by a weaker dollar and rise in gold prices.
Bernanke said he didn't think inflation was currently a concern, even as he said deflation risks had lessened. He said even with a recent jump in the price of oil and other commodities, cost pressures "generally remain subdued."
"As a consequence, inflation is likely to move down some over the next year relative to its pace in 2008. That said, improving economic conditions and stable inflation expectations should limit further declines in inflation," he said.
(Editing by Andrea Ricci)
http://www.ariva.de/Bernanke_scheisst_die_Maerkte_mit_Geld_zu_t303606
Dabei kann es durchaus passieren, dass Operating Earning des S&P im Jahre 2010 schon wieder bei 100 liegen - und dann hätten wir ein einstelliges KGV.