Sirius XM Radio NEWS
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|Eröffnet am:||02.04.09 16:53||von: Christkindl||Anzahl Beiträge:||199|
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Christkindl: Is Sirius Up for Sale?
At one time, Mr. Clayton had estimated that the U.S. market for Satellite Radio exceeded three hundred million subscribers. Mr. Clayton had a vision that was unparalleled by even the most die-hard proponents of Satellite Radio. Mr. Clayton now sits on the Board of Directors for Echostar and it is no secret that he left the helm of Sirius XM unwillingly. It would not be a stretch to conclude that Mr. Clayton has had a few discussions regarding his optimism with Echostar's Charles Ergen. Perhaps it is just that reason that Mr. Ergen attempted his hostile takeover earlier in the year.
Despite this, Sirius XM seems all too willing to extend a hand of friendship. Or so it would seem. Moments ago Sirius XM announced that it plans to adopt a shareholder rights plan. The plan is certainly beneficial to shareholders and I would expect its adoption to take place at the annual shareholders meeting next month, but all too often these plans are adopted to prevent a hostile takeover, such as we saw with Mr. Ergen.
The press release from Sirius XM clearly states that this is NOT the reasoning behind this, and still other stories have been told describing the many benefits of Sirius XM's tax loss benefits, but I am left wondering, given the circumstances surrounding the timing of this plan. It certainly wasn't mentioned in the company's SEC filing just one week ago. This item has been added to the agenda. Why now is the company so concerned with shareholder protection?
It is beginning to look to me as if Sirius XM Radio is for sale, at a very high price, mind you, and to a very specific suitor. The shareholder rights plan means that the asking price of Sirius XM just went up considerably. The only question remaining in my mind, is how much Mr. Clayton and Mr. Ergen are willing to pay. Six billion dollars in tax losses alone is a great place to start.
Position: Long SIRI
Christkindl: Sirius XM Sets Poison-Pill Plan
With the clock ticking on Chrysler to solve their debt woes, investors in Sirius XM (SIRI) have something to think about. Chrysler was a major player in the OEM channel for Sirius over the past few years, but slow sales and slowed production have diminished Chrysler’s contribution to the subscriber roles.
Different OEMs have different deals, and the way OEM subscriber counts are tallied also differs. Sirius XM counts vehicles for which they receive payment as a subscriber. This is the case whether the payment is from the OEM or the end user. Because Sirius XM receives payment from Chrysler at production, the subscription is counted prior to the car being sold to an end user. This would help boost subscriber numbers, but the trade off is a lower ARPU (average revenue per user). The reasoning is simple. The 1 year subscription that the end user receives from a Chrysler brand product does not start until the consumer buys a car. The payment received for the subscription from Sirius XM is booked as deferred revenue. Deferred revenue is a liability, and does not switch to revenue until the service contracted is delivered. Because cars do not roll directly off of the assembly line and sell, there is a period of time when cars will not show any revenue and thus the ARPU is impacted.
ARPU is the average revenue per user. If 400,000 Chrysler brand cars are in transit to dealers, or sitting on dealer lots, they are being counted as subscribers, but are impacting ARPU because none of these vehicles would be generating revenue as yet.
At the end of February, Chrysler’s inventory represented a 151 day supply. Chrysler was second only to GM with a 161 day supply. To give perspective, the Chrysler supply on January 1, 2009 was 115 days. With consumer confidence in failing auto companies likely low, Chrysler sales have been hard to come by. Even with slowed production, the inventory at Chrysler seems to be increasing.
The Chrysler deal has always been cash-flow friendly:
1. Sirius XM pays a subsidy for a radio installation - Cash Out
2. Chrysler buys a one year subscription - Cash In
3. 45% to 55% of those subscribers become self paying
Sirius XM could literally re-invest the cash they receive from Chrysler into more radios. Regardless of what the consumer does, each radio has had a 1 year subscription paid for, thus offsetting costs associated with the installation. If the Chrysler subscribers become self paying, the company - as well as Chrysler - gets a better return. If the Chrysler subscriber does not become self paying, the company at least got a 1 year subscription paid for.
Compared to the GM deal, the Chrysler deal is very SDARS friendly because of better returns on the investment into radios, combined with lower revenue shares. Should Chrysler falter Thursday, there will be an impact on subscriber roles, ARPU, SAC (subscriber acquisition costs), deferred revenue, as well as revenue.
Previously, SiriusBuzz spoke of the changing landscape in auto sales. In that piece we focused on the GM side of the equation. This piece focuses on Chrysler. The bottom line is that if sales of these two brands fall off, and are replaced by other brands with more favorable deals, Sirius XM could see a substantial shift in many metrics. It is something investors should watch for.
In terms of subscribers, because of slowed auto production and sales, investors should be prepared for a negative subscriber number with the Q1 announcement. In Q4, the de-activations were 1.6 million with net subscribers added being about 80,000. There is no possible way, given the auto sales trends in Q1, that the company will report positive subscriber numbers. Investors should be prepared for de-activations in the neighborhood of 1.65 to 1.75 million. While this is bad news, there will be metrics where the street will see marked improvement. This will allow investors to look forward to the return of steady auto sales and consumer confidence. If Sirius XM can weather the next few quarters, there is potential for good times ahead.
Position - Long Sirius XM, No Position OEMs
Christkindl: Sirius XM Should Not Be Underestimated
There are several factors in my mind at play here, with the main culprit being the number of deactivations alluded to in articles from SiriusBuzz, The Motley Fool as well as my own sites, Satwaves.com and SatwavesForum.com.
Thursday I reported that there may have been a rise in some OEM penetration rates. That factor alone should help Sirius XM on its top line subscriber number. The bottom line question is in fact the number of deactivations that occurred in the quarter. That number alone will skew the subscriber numbers one way or another.
With that fact in mind, I realized that the company does not have to, in fact, deactivate anyone. How many articles have we seen this past quarter that talk about how hard it has been to cancel a Sirius or XM subscription? Apparently, Sirius XM's customer retention department was working feverishly to retain subscribers in the quarter. Fourth quarter deactivations are also typically higher because that is when the prior year's Christmas gifts and the accompanying 1 year subscriptions come up for renewal.
There was a two week free trial at the end of the quarter in which no deactivations occurred. In fact, I personally was not deactivated and that's how I know this to be true. I had changed banks when I moved and Sirius did not have my new information. I paid my fare April 1 yet I was supposed to have been deactivated on the 18th of March. It never happened. The free trial period that ran the final two weeks of the quarter could have slowed any bleeding considerably. Those 2 weeks would result in considerably less reported deactivations for the quarter.
Finally, most new car sales occur in the second half of the year, which means the highest number of deactivations of Sirius XM promotional subscriptions would occur in the same time period, rather than in the first quarter of a given year. Historically, February is the slowest month for new car sales as 2009 proved once again to be true.
Even with all of this information, I'm still not convinced based on the overall economy that Sirius XM has somehow pulled a rabbit out of its hat. I'm just not going to under-estimate them at this point.
Position: Long SIRI
Naja aus Fehlern lernt man :)
freunde die woche der wahrheit steht an!
Am Donnerstag kommen die Zahlen raus dann sehen wir in wie weit die Wirtschafts-/Autokrise auch Sirius geschadet hat...ich rechne damit dass die Zahlen nicht so gut ausfallen aber der Kurs dadurch trotzdem nicht maßgeblich beeinflußt wird!! Wochenziel bleiben für mich die 0,50$!!
sonnenkind: sollen mal scharen
an den 0,75 diese woche will ich gar nicht so recht glauben...
TiKo: wer zeit hat wird gewinnen
sonnenkind: bin mal gespannt
el presidente: egal was kommt...
Christkindl: gehe davon aus,
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is expected to report Q1 earnings before the market open on Thursday, May 7 with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am ET.
Analysts are looking for a loss of (2c) on revenue of $647.41M. The consensus range is (2c)-(1c) for EPS, and revenue of $645.61M-$649.2M, according to First Call.
Some analysts believe Sirius may not make revenue expectations as slumping car sales and some OEM deals bring revenue down despite higher priced packages. In an attempt to broaden its appeal, the Wall Street Journal reported, Sirius is planning an application for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, which should be launched soon, and is also moving into online delivery of its service.
On the call: Analysts and investors will listen for comments regarding new projects as well as information on the recently announced merger deal between Liberty Entertainment (LMDIA) and DirecTV (DTV) that would spin off the merged company. In particular, they will listen for comments if Sirius anticipates its own merger with Liberty. Sirius has agreements with Liberty Media and its affiliate, Liberty Radio LLC, pursuant to which Liberty has invested an aggregate of $350M in the form of loans to Sirius, and are committed to invest an additional $180M in loans. In its recently filed 10K, Sirius said it believes its cash and available borrowings are “sufficient to satisfy” financial obligations through January 2010. This is changed from our earlier entry which said, "In February, Liberty Media (LINTA) agreed to lend $530M to the broadcaster of which it received $280M upfront, according to the Wall Street Journal. If Sirius wants the rest it will have to persuade holders of $350M in bank debt to extend it." Holders of bank debt have agreed to extend it.
Christkindl: Sirius XM posts loss, raises outlook
* Q1 revenue $605.5 mln vs Street view 646.5 mln
* Ended Q1 with 18.6 mln subs, down 2 pct from Q4
* Raises 2009 operating income view, shares rise 19 pct
* Shares up 18 percent, or roughly 10 cents, in premarket
NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI.O) posted a quarterly loss, as subscribers to the satellite radio service declined, but the company boosted its outlook for 2009 operating profit, citing cost cuts.
Sirius, which borrowed $530 million from Liberty Media earlier this year to stave off looming debt problems, said first-quarter sales rose 5 percent to $605.5 million.
Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $236.6 million on a pro forma basis, compared with $104.1 million on year earlier. The company's loss per share was flat at 7 cents a share, as its outstanding shares more than doubled from a year earlier.
The pro forma figures reflect the fact that Sirius completed its purchase of rival XM Satellite Radio last July, and compares the results as if they were a single company a year ago.
The company reported a 2 percent sequential decline in satellite radio subscribers, ending the period with 18.6 million. That is a 3 percent increase its pro forma subscribers from the end of first quarter of 2008. (Reporting by Franklin Paul and Anupreeta Das; Editing by Derek Caney)
TradingEfficiently: Sirus Radio
Was denkt Ihr?
TradingEfficiently: Sirus Radio will rise again
Diese Firma hat riesiges Potential und sobald sich die psychologische 50 euro cents etabliert hat wird der Kurs auch weiterhin steigen. Man kann mit Kursen von ca. $1 - 1.50 im Mai rechnen. Für Q2 `09 sogar um die $2 herum.
Man sollte niemals vergessen, dass die Börse von zwei Dingen geleitet wird: "Greed and fear"..."Gier und Angst". Der Markt hat in den letzten Monaten genug Angst gehabt...und was nun dominieren wird (zumindest Zeitweise) ist die Gier.
(Fast) jede Aktie einer stabilen Firma wird einem Investor in den kommenden Monaten Gewinne bringen. Kurse sind völlig unterbewertet und spiegeln nicht den wahren Marktwert wieder.
sonnenkind: buy in bad news
so bewerte ich den rücksetzer von jetzt
wird nicht mal die gd 38 voll austesten
sonnenkind: noch dabei
leider noch dabei, Ausstieg verpasst......
wenn die liebe Gier nicht wär...;-)
habe mich heute etwas mit anderern dingen abgelenkt und eigentlich möchte ich so und so ein jahr drinnen bleiben
möchte nur nicht all meine gewinne abgeben...
habe beschlossen noch in gutem glauben zu bleiben
denke die nächste woche wirds weisen, weniger gewinn oder doch nachhaltige erholung...