Der Doomsday Bären-Thread
Hikes Priced Out for Next Two Meetings
By Tony Crescenzi
9/21/2006 2:06 PM EDT
For the first time in more than two years, the bond market is priced for zero percent odds of an interest rate hike in upcoming months. Fed funds futures are now trading at 5.25% for year-end, indicating that the market is expecting the fed funds rate to be held steady at both the Oct. 24-25 and Dec. 12 FOMC meetings.
With the market priced for the possibility of a cut at the Jan. 31 FOMC meeting, the market is therefore saying that the Fed's next move will be a cut, not a hike.
Odds for a cut at the January meeting are now at 24%, back to the Sept. 1 closing high. Intraday, the odds were as high as 28%. Looking further out, the market is now priced for at least two quarter-point cuts that would bring the funds rate down to 4.75%, and for about 20% odds of a third cut.
Würden die Bullen/Boyz nichts unternehmen, könnte der DOW soviel Abwärtsmomentum entwickeln, dass er über 200 Punkte verlöre wie am 10. Mai. Über Nacht würde die Lawine in Japan und in Europa weiter losgetreten - und morgen hätten sie ein fettes Down-Gap. Daher also lieber jetzt schon mal die Stützungskäufe via Computer/Buy-Programme.
Aktionen von Finanzmogulen um günstig die Seite wechseln zu können. Pol. Ereignisse haben kurze Beine, ich messe den Kongreßwahlen wenig Bedeutung bei. Letzlich ist Bush den Shlomos egal, he has done his dues, der ist einfach zu dämlich, die lassen den auch hochgehen. Der Respekt vor der breiten Masse, die aus Finanznöten oder womöglich fehlendem Glauben in den value ihre Aktien versemmeln ist sicher größer.
Salamicrash wird es amS nicht geben.
wenn man das so nennen mag:
NAR's Forecast - Going Down, Down, Down in a Burning Ring of Fire
Our good friends at the NAR (National Association of Realtors) have just released their latest forecast for 2006.
Although they keep talking of the market "leveling off" and "returning to normal", let's take a look at their forecasts from the past 12 months, starting in October of last year. These are verbatim from their press releases:
October 28th, 2005
Existing-home sales are projected to decline 3.5 percent in 2006 to 6.86 million. New-home sales, seen to grow by 8.0 percent to 1.30 million in 2005, are expected to fall 4.5 percent to 1.24 million next year. The figures for 2006 would be the second highest year for each sector.
December 12th, 2005
Existing-home sales are likely to decline 3.7 percent in 2006 to 6.84 million. New-home sales, projected to increase 7.0 percent to 1.29 million this year, are forecast to drop 4.8 percent to 1.23 million in 2006 - also the second best on record.
January 10th, 2006
Existing-home sales are forecast to ease by 4.4 percent to 6.79 million this year, which would be the second highest on record. New-home sales, which should be a record 1.29 million for 2005, are expected to decline 6.0 percent to 1.21 million in 2006 - that also would be the second best year in history.
Editor's note: SUDDENLY in February, the NAR figures 2006 will not be the 2nd best year, but merely the THIRD best year, ever.....
February 7th, 2006
Existing-home sales are likely to decline 4.7 percent to 6.74 million this year, down from a record 7.07 million units in 2005, while new-home sales are expected to fall 8.5 percent to 1.17 million from a record 1.28 million in 2005; both sectors would see their third best year after the totals for 2005 and 2004. Housing starts are seen at 1.87 million units in 2006, down 9.3 percent from 2.06 million last year.
March 13, 2006
Existing-home sales are expected to fall 5.7 percent to 6.67 million in 2006 from
the record 7.08 million last year. At the same time, new-home sales are forecast to decline 7.7 percent to 1.18 million from a record 1.28 million in 2005 - each sector would be at the third highest year following the tallies for 2005 and 2004. Housing starts are likely to total 1.98 million this year, down 4.3 percent from 2.06 million in 2005.
April 11th, 2006
Existing-home sales are projected to drop 6.0 percent to 6.65 million this year from a record 7.08 million in 2005. New-home sales are likely fall 10.9 percent to 1.14 million from the record 1.28 million last year - both sectors would see the third best year following 2005 and 2004. Housing starts are forecast at 2.00 million in 2006, which is 3.2 percent below the 2.07 million in total starts last year.
May 9th, 2006
Existing-home sales are likely to fall 6.4 percent to 6.62 million in 2006 from a record 7.08 million last year. New-home sales are projected to drop 11.6 percent to 1.13 million from last year’s record of 1.28 million. Housing starts should decline 3.7 percent to 1.99 million this year compared with 2.07 million in 2005.
July 11th, 2006
Existing-home sales are expected to decline 6.7 percent to 6.60 million in 2006 from 7.08 million last year. That would still be the third highest level on record. New-home sales should fall 12.8 percent this year to 1.12 million from 1.28 million in 2005. Housing starts are forecast to decline 6.8 percent to 1.93 million this year from 2.07 million in 2005.
August 9, 2006
Existing-home sales are forecast to fall 6.5 percent to 6.61 million this year, the third highest on record after 2005 and 2004. New-home sales are projected to drop 12.8 percent in 2006 to 1.12 million, also the third best on record. Housing starts should be down 9.1 percent to 1.88 million this year.
Editor's note: UH-OH!!! In the space of a year, the NAR's forecast for New Home sales in 2006 has gone from 2nd best year to...fourth???.....something tells me existing homes will also drop to #4 (or lower) by the end of the year.
Sept 7, 2006
Existing-home sales are forecast to fall 7.6 percent to 6.54 million in 2006, the third best year after consecutive records in 2004 and 2005. New-home sales should to drop 16.1 percent this year to 1.08 million, the fourth highest on record. Housing starts are projected to decline 9.6 percent to 1.87 million in 2006.
So, after reading their forecasts, what do you think is going to happen in 2007?
And really, take my word for it: if you don't ABSOLUTELY have to buy a house in the next 2-3 years, don't do it. The values are dropping, and they're going to continue to drop. Stay where you are, or rent. You'll save yourself (and your family) 10's of thousands of dollars.
Optionen
| Boardmail an "obgicou" |
Wertpapier: BP plc |
Ein 24-jähriger House-Flipper kauft seit Jan06 7 Objekte in 4 verschiedenen US-Staaten - von denen er nun noch 5 besitzt - ist aktuell mit 2,2 Mio USD verschuldet, schätzt den Wert seiner verbliebenen Häuser auf (derzeit noch) 1,6 Mio. USD und steht unmittelbar vor der Zwangsvollstreckung. Tritt die Zwangsvollstreckung ein (woran kein Zweifel besteht), wird der erzielte Gesamterlös voraussichtlich weit unter 1,6 Mio USD liegen.
Daraus ergeben sich mal sofort 2 Fragen:
1. Wie kann es sein, dass ein 24-jähriger ohne Job 2,2 Mio USD Kredit aufnehmen kann?
2. Wie schläft man nachts, wenn man als 24-jähriger schon mindestens 600 Tsd USD (realistisch eher über 1 Mio) Schulden hat?
Good luck, man. You'll need it.
OnceHush!
Ich vermute mal der hat das gut erfunden,24 Jahre alt ,vermutlich kaum Erfahrung und 2 Millionen Kredit?
Solche bezahlten Basher tummeln sich übrigens auch in den Yahoo Aktien-Boards - in zwei Varianten:
aggressiv:
"So, so, Du bist also long mit diesem Stück Scheiße (POS). Hattest von finanzieller Unabhängigkeit geträumt, was? Wäre ja auch toll gewesen, wenn Du Dein Geld vervielfacht hättest und Dich jetzt in der Karibik in einer Hängematte von schönen Frauen verwöhnen lassen könntest und dazu einen schönen Pina colada süffeln. WÄRE. Denn Du hast es NICHT geschafft, dieses POS wird nämlich auch noch Dein restliches Geld vernichten. Am Ende stehst Du mittellos da. Ich würde mich schon mal nach einem Pappkarton umsehen, den Du vor dem Hauptbahnhof als Pennerwohnung aufstellen kannst."
regressiv/selbstmitleidig:
"Ich bin so verzweifelt, kann nachts nicht mehr schlafen. Denke nur noch an meinen unsäglichen Fehler, damals mein ganzes Geld in diese Aktie gesteckt zu haben. Dabei sah doch am Anfang alles so gut aus - wenn nur der Mist mit den faulen Krediten/dem korrupten CEO/den vier Gewinnwarnungen [Nichtzutreffendes streichen] nicht gekommen wäre. Das hab ich wirklich nicht vorausahnen können. Nun sitze ich hüfttief in der Scheiße, das Leben macht keinen Sinn mehr für mich. Ich glaube, ich werde verkaufen und mich dann aufhängen. Oder mich gleich aufhängen und nicht verkaufen, spielt ja eh keine Rolle mehr bei dem miesen Kurs."
Die jetzt nachgebenden Kurse sorgen dafür, dass Shorter, die ja lange genug auf den Abverkauf gewartet haben, nun ihre Boote voll laden. Das Abwärtsmomentum hört jedoch bei S&P-500 1305 oder spätestens 1292 auf. Die Bullen feiern das als abgeschlossene Korrektur im "intakten Aufwärtstrend" und liefern mit ihren Käufen den Zündstoff, der die Bären erneut in die Kapitulation treibt - bis die US-Indizes am Ende DOCH NOCH ihre bisherigen Allzeithochs "knacken". Nach dem 5. Allzeithoch in Folge, das jeweils täglich von wonnestrahlenden, rotwangigen Blondinen in den Nachrichten gemeldet wird, geht den Bullen die Puste aus. Die verängstigten Bären wagen nicht mehr, den Markt zu shorten. So kann er dann im freien Fall nach unten taumeln, weil es kaum noch covernde Shorts gibt, die beim Eindecken ihre schützende Hand unter ihm aufbreiten.
Sieht man sich die Schwerst-Einbrüche der Vergangenheit an (z. B. 1929 oder 1987), so fällt auf, dass es kurz vor den Abstürzen immer ein letztes himmelschreiendes Euphorie-Hoch gab: ein Fiasko für die Longs, die über Nacht 20 oder 30 % verlieren, aber auch für die Shorter, die - wenn der Absturz endlich kommt - bereits rausgeekelt oder gar ins Bullenlager gewechselt sind (wie Stephen Roach, der berühmte Perma-Bär, Anfang Mai 2006 vor dem riesigen Abverkauf!).
Odds of a rate cut by year end rise to 26%
By Tomi Kilgore
Last Update: 1:45 PM ET Sep 22, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The odds of an interest rate cut continue to rise, as a scenario for a hard-landing for the U.S. economy continues to take shape. December fed fund futures were last up 0.03 at 94.79, which implies a 26% chance that the Fed will lower its target for overnight rates to 5% from 5.25% sometime after their next 2 meetings (Oct. 24/25 and Dec. 12). Futures began pricing in a chance of a cut (about 7%) by year-end for the first time on Thursday after data showing manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region contracted in September for the first time in 3 1/2 years. Late Wednesday, after the Fed said it was keeping overnight rates unchanged at 5.25% and said inflation remained a risk, December fed funds were pricing in about a 7% chance of a rate hike. (This replaces an earlier item to correct the direction of the odds of a rate move in the headline.)
2. Sinkende Zinsen retten den Housing-Markt und den US-Verbraucher:
Where Bonds Have Philly Wrong
By Tony Crescenzi
Street.com
9/22/2006 1:14 PM EDT
The Philadelphia Fed survey tends to reflect upon the "old economy" more so than say, the New York Fed survey, which represents the new economy well. I draw this conclusion from data that I obtained from the Census Bureau, which keeps an account of the types of business activity that occur in many U.S. cities. Hence, when the old economy is mired in problems -- as is now the case in the automobile sector -- the Philadelphia survey (and the Chicago purchasing managers survey) will pick this up. In this way, the survey can overstate shifts that occur in the broader economy.
One reason I would downgrade the importance of the Philadelphia survey is because it was so predictable. For months, I have been saying that figures such as the Philly survey might indicate a contraction (I thought last month's Chicago index would plunge, but it hasn't happened yet). The reason is because of spending patterns. Consumer spending began weakening months ago, with personal spending having increased at a slow 2.6% pace in the second quarter. My mantra throughout has hence been, "if people aren't buying stuff, factories won't have to make stuff." So to me, this is old news.
Fast forward to today. Spending has picked up a bit. It is early, but if it continues a little longer, factory activity will surely follow. Moreover, with interest rates down the housing market will stabilize a bit, confounding those at the extreme side of the bear spectrum. In addition, refis [= Refinanzierungen/ Hausbeleihungen] will gain (already at a seven-month high), infusing more cash into the consumers' pocket to go alongside the savings from the decline in energy costs.
Der Weg war lang und beschwerlich für die Bären, aber alles wird gut: das grosse Doppeltop ist ab heute in der beginnenden Formation. Aber es muss ja nicht gleich in einem riesigem Abverkauf enden.
Da Thema Bush wird sowieso bald erledigt sein.
Stocks to Lighten Up on for a Hard Landing
By RIchard Suttmeier
Street.com Contributor
9/22/2006 11:28 AM EDT
Most strategists are optimistic that the economy is heading for a soft landing and that stocks are ready to climb to new highs. I disagree. The Federal Reserve has no choice but to remain on hold and show confidence that the economy is headed for a soft landing. If it raises rates more, it could push the economy into a hard landing. If it cuts rates, it will be admitting that it has overshot, and I would consider that event a downgrading of the U.S. economy. This would be a signal that we are indeed heading for a hard landing. I believe now is the time to book profits on highflying stocks.
Signals to Fasten Seatbelts
U.S. Treasury yields are 50 basis points and more below the federal funds rate. This is a sign that bond investors expect that the FOMC will be forced to make cuts. The deleveraging of speculative commodity positions is a sign of uncertainty, including the corrections in Comex gold and Nymex crude oil. The secular uptrend for Comex gold shows major support around $460 an ounce. This will likely line up with the 200-week simple moving average, which was rising at $443.50 this week. It was last tested in February 2002, when the average was $282. A slowing economy, a quiet hurricane season (so far) in the Gulf of Mexico, luck on the geopolitical front and the unwinding of speculative positions have burst the energy bubble -- Nymex crude oil has declined more than 22% since hitting a high of $78.40 in July. My price target for crude remains my annual support of $51.87, which appears achievable by the end of 2007, if not sooner. This will likely line up with the 200-week simple moving average, which was rising at $47.60 this week. It was last tested in October 2003, when the average was $29.95. Keep in mind that former ExxonMobil Chairman Lee Raymond testified before Congress last October that he felt crude oil was probably $20 a barrel too high because of speculation. My major concern is the regional banks and their overexposure to residential construction and development loans, which totals $514 billion among the 8,788 FDIC-insured institutions. This exposure was up 31.8% year over year at the end of the second quarter. The banks' exposure 15 years ago was only $160 billion, and back then 13% to 14% of these loans became noncurrent. Putting this exposure in perspective, the GDP of the U.S. is $13 trillion, with the total assets held by FDIC-insured institutions at $11.5 trillion. Residential construction loans thus make up roughly 4% of GDP and 4.4% of the exposure of the banking system. In my judgment, this is a ticking time bomb. The America's Community Bankers Index (ACBQ), which tracks over 500 publicly traded regional banks, reached a new high Thursday morning on the theory that the Fed will orchestrate a soft landing. This is deemed positive for financial stocks. I disagree -- I believe investors should reduce exposure to regional banks and consider booking profits on positions that are trading near their 52-week highs.How Now Dow?
The Dow Is poised to test its January 2000 high at 11,750. If not now, when? In May, with the Russell 2000 testing 787.75 and the Dow Jones Transportation Average testing 5013, the Dow should have hurdled above 11,750 -- but it didn't. Now the first two averages are at 733.50 and 4347, which is a drag. In addition, the Nasdaq peaked at 2375 in April and is stuck about 100 points lower. Semiconductors should be leading, but instead the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) failed shy of its 200-day simple moving average of 480.50. Finally, the Dow Utility Average reached a high of 443.49 on Sept. 1 and is down 4% this month. If stocks fail now, the focus could shift to the uncertainties of the upcoming elections. If the Democrats take the House and/or the Senate, the uncertainties could persist until after the 2008 presidential election.Consider Booking Profits on These
On Tuesday, I suggested that investors reduce positions on stocks when they achieve new 52-week highs if they are fundamentally overvalued, technically overbought and trading near a risky level from my model. Here are my takes on stocks readers emailed me about. International Game Technology (IGT) is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is trading 11.7% over its fair value of $35.18. The weekly chart profile shows rising momentum, so even though it achieved a new 52-week high at $40.42 on Sept.15, it isn't yet overbought. I'd consider taking profits if it rises to my semiannual risky level of $41.65. Capital Trust (CT) is rated a buy by ValuEngine, but it's trading 10.4% over its fair value of $38.92. The weekly chart profile is overbought, and it set a 52-week high of $43.50 on Monday. The stock is trading between my semiannual pivot of $40.34 and my semiannual risky level of $47.66. Given the buy rating, I'd protect gains with a sell-stop below $40.34. InterDigital (IDCC) is rated a buy by ValuEngine and is trading 4.3% under its fair value of $35.16. The weekly chart profile shows rising momentum. My semiannual pivots are $32.57 and $36.53. I'd protect profits with a sell-stop below $32.57. American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 30.2% over its fair value of $33.48. The weekly chart profile is overbought. With it trading above my monthly pivot of $41.79 near its 52-week high of $43.74 set last week, I'd consider booking some gains now. Humana (HUM) is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is trading 36.9% above its fair value of $49.10. The weekly chart profile is overbought. After hitting a 52-week high of $68.24 Thursday, just shy of my quarterly risky level of $68.34, I'd consider booking some gains now. Bank of America (BAC) is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 7.2% over its fair value of $48.54. The weekly chart profile is overbought; its 52-week high of $52.75 was set on Aug. 4. My monthly pivot is $50.85 and my semiannual risky level is $54.87. Consider booking some gains now. Altria (MO) is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 24.6% above its fair value of $66.22. The weekly chart profile is overbought and its $3 below its 52-week high of $85 set on Aug. 28. This high was just above my quarterly pivot at $84.25. Consider booking some gains now. JPMorgan (JPM) is rated a buy by ValuEngine and is 2.4% over its fair value of $45.72. The weekly chart profile is overbought with the 52-week high of $47.49 set on Sept. 20. My monthly and annual risky levels are $47.96 and $49.50. Consider booking some gains now. GigaMedia (GIGM) isn't rated by ValuEngine. It has rising weekly momentum and reached a new 52-week high today at $12.55 vs. my monthly risky level of $12.34. Consider booking some gains now. Mothers Work (MWRK) is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is soaring 101.8% over its fair value of $23.71. The weekly chart profile is overbought and it set a 52-week high of $49.00 on Monday. It is too overbought, so I'd reduce holdings. Walgreen (WAG) is rated a hold by ValuEngine. It is trading a few dimes below its fair value of $46.56, it has an overbought weekly chart profile and its Sept. 11 52-week high of $51.60 was just above my quarterly risky level at $50.71. It looks like we are a day late with this one. Kohl's (KSS) is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 16.2% over its fair value of $58.15. The weekly chart profile is overbought and its 52-week high of $67.95 was set on Sept. 15. I do not show a risky level for this one, but booking profits makes sense. T. Rowe Price (TROW) is rated a hold by ValuEngine and is 19.4% over its fair value of $39.04. The weekly chart profile is overbought, and it is just under its 52-week high of $47.75, set on Sept. 15. I don't have a risky level, but taking some money off the table makes sense.At the time of publication, Suttmeier had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
OnceHush!
Gleich in den Keller wäre wohl zu trivial.
Nice weekend.
Es würde eine Terrorismus-Erleichterungsrallye folgen (die freilich grundlos wäre - denn als der Irak-Chef von Al Kaida getötet wurde, hörten die Attentate im Irak auch nicht auf). Diese Rallye könnte die Indizes durch die alten Widerstände schieben und einen "Fake-"Ausbruch erzeugen, der einen idealen Short-Setup liefert. (Mein Plan, bei S&P um 1340 wieder short zu gehen, steht bislang noch).
Seit Jahren schon zaubern die Longs immer dann, wenn sie in (charttechnisch) in der Bredouille sind, das "Bin-Laden-tot"-Kaninchen aus dem Hut. Das Gute ist, dass Bin Laden - anders als James Bond - nur EINMAL stirbt. Sein Tod ist dann als Störfaktor für Shorter ein für allemal vom Tisch. Daher auch für Shorter: eine Sorge weniger.
angesichts der globalen Politik von Herrn Bush & Co. werden die Terroristen ganz bestimmt
nicht jubeln und Daumen drehen.
16:00 - ! US Verkäufe bestehender Häuser August
sollten wieder negative news kommen, dann sehen wir so einen Rutsch wie im Mai. Dannach könnte ich mir - getrieben von der dann wieder aufkommenden Zinssenkungsphantasie in US - einen neuen Angriff der Highs vorstellen.
Zur wirtschaftlichen Lage:
1) keine weiteren Zinserhöhungen klingt zunächst mal gut
2) stagnierende Energiepreise auch.
Zusammen könnte dies die Nachfrage im AMI-Land erneut etwas anheizen. Zudem steht das Weihnachtsgeschäft vor der Tür. Saisonal sollte es also zu erhöhten Ausgaben kommen, was, wie wir ja alle wissen, die US-Wirtschaft, die maßgeblich an den Verbraucherausgaben hängt, bis zum Winter stützen sollte. Oder wie seht ihr das?
Schlecht ist natürlich, wenn die IMMO-Preise, die Baugenhemigungen und die Verkäufe weiter einbrechen. Dies könnte den einen oder anderen US IMMO Besitzer wohl in Bedrängnis bringen.
Die Börse wird eine solche Entwicklung wohl auch nicht mit Gelassenheit aufnehmen. Aber ob es bei weiteren schlechten Daten zu Panikverkäufen kommt, wie es sie im Mai gab, halte ich doch für fragwürdig.
Positiv ist, dass die Finanzssysteme der Welt den Patzer dieses Hedgefonds ohne jedes Problem weg gesteckt haben. Das spricht doch für eine gewisse Stabillität, wobei, wenn ich das richtig gelesen habe, der Hedge Fonds nicht mit Devisen, sondern mit Gas Contrcts spekuliert hatte. Deren Preisverfall scheint allerdings wenig Auswirkungen auf die Weltkonjunktur zu haben, so dass man meinen könnte, die Presse wiege mit ihren Schlagzeilen: "Großer Hedge Fonds Pleite, keine Auswirkungen auf Weltwirtschaft", in eine falsche Sicherheit.
Was mich eigentlich auch ein wenig beunruhigt ist der Iran. Habe letzten gelesen, es sei überhaupt kein Problem, eine Atombombe zu bauen, wenn man nur genügend Spaltfähiges Material hat. Da wird auch etwas dran sein Schließlich haben die AMIS 1945 es geschafft, trotz des damals noch sehr begrenzten Wissenstands eine Atombombe auf Japan zu werfen. Naja, und mit der Urananreicherung kommt man im Iran ja offenbar voran.
Was wird also passieren, wenn der Iran weiterhin an seinem Kurs festhält? Entweder man gibt ihm die Bombe... und riskiert Israel. Oder man führt Krieg, und riskiert höchste Ölpreise, steigenden Terrorismus und wahrscheinlich eine ausgewachsene Weltwirtschaftskrise. Oder wie seht ihr das?
Video: http://cbs2.com/video/?id=25369@kcbs.dayport.com
OnceHush!