FCEL vor Gewinnschwelle 2013
Summary
Company reported very weak Q3 FY 2016 numbers but affirmed its recently lowered full-year guidance.
Q4 revenues will most likely see an up to 300% increase from Q3 levels and strong cash flows.
While there are more potential short-term catalysts ahead, investors nevertheless need to prepare for another revenue decrease in FY2017.
Fuel Cell Energy will most likely enter the new fiscal year with a strong liquidity position and a substantial project pipeline that might take some time to develop.
Note: I have covered FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) previously, so investors should view this article as an update to my earlier articles on the company.
Clearly, FuelCell Energy's Q3 FY 2016 results were nothing to write home about as reported revenues missed analyst expectations by a mile with the backlog also being down quarter over quarter. Moreover, net cash used in operating activities was a whopping $25 mln for the quarter while gross margins continued to remain close to the break-even level.
But instead of dropping to new all-time lows, the stock actually managed to recover steep initial losses and even finish the session slightly in the green thanks to management keeping its recently lowered full-year FY2016 sales guidance intact on the conference call by forecasting revenues of $56-86 mln for the current quarter.
The expected major ramp in revenues is in large parts due to the upcoming expiration of the fuel cell tax investment credit (NASDAQ:FTC) at the end of 2016 as customers rush to complete purchases of turn-key projects and equipment before year end in order to qualify for the FTC.
In addition, due to the large number of project sales projected for Q4, cash flows are expected to come in substantially positive - not bad for a company that has so far used $57 mln in cash in operating and investing activities during the first nine months of fiscal year 2016.
So much for the good news.
Unfortunately, investors will have to prepare for a potentially dismal FY 2017, as the company's fuel cell kit supply agreement with South Korean independent power producer POSCO Energy is slated to expire during Q4. Given the fact, that POSCO Energy so far has accounted for more than 50% of the company's revenues in FY 2016, Fuel Cell Energy will most likely encounter problems to replace these sales going forward. On the flip side, the company expects margins to increase as the sales mix will change from fuel cell kits more towards higher margin turnkey projects.
Moreover, current analyst estimates call for $230 mln in FY 2017 revenues, a more than 55% increase from their projections for FY 2016. The huge expected increase can be explained with the anticipated award of the company's by far largest project up to date, the 63MW Beacon Falls Energy Park - unfortunately the decision has been initially delayed in July and is now expected to happen at some time later this year. Should the project not be awarded, 2017 revenues might actually see another notable decrease from the already depressed 2016 levels due to the upcoming loss of the POSCO business.
Furthermore, on the conference call management announced a 20% reduction in the company's annualized factory production run-rate from 62MW to 50MW starting in the current quarter mostly due to "the current timing expectation of new product deliveries," which indirectly acknowledges expected FY 2017 revenues to most likely be lower than in FY 2016. Given this issue, the recently started major expansion of the company's Torrington, Conn., manufacturing facility looks somewhat odd at this stage, particularly as required capital expenditures for the entire project are currently estimated at up to $65 mln over a five year period with $7-10 mln expected to be occurred in FY 2016.
In addition, something does not add up with regard to the company's recently completed offering of common stock and warrants as the initial press release from July 7 stated:
FuelCell Energy, Inc., a global leader in the design, manufacture, operation and service of ultra‐clean, efficient and reliable fuel cell power plants, today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with a single institutional investor to sell the equivalent of 6,861,064 shares of common stock at a per share price of $5.83, the closing bid price of the common stock on July 6, 2016, and warrants to purchase up to an aggregate of 8,233,277 shares of common stock, in a registered direct offering for gross proceeds of $40 million. The net proceeds at closing, after deducting the placement agent fees, will be approximately $37.6 million. The Company intends to use the proceeds from this offering to support project financing, working capital, and for general corporate purposes.
In contrast, yesterday's 10-Q filing with the SEC states:
On July 12, 2016 Company closed on a registered public offering of securities to a single institutional investor pursuant to a placement agent agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. The Company received net proceeds from the transaction of $34.8 million, after deducting underwriter discounts and offering expenses of $2.6 million. The transaction consisted of 1,474,000 shares of common stock, 7,680,000 Series A Warrants and 4,926,000 prefunded Series B Warrants. The Series A warrants have an exercise price of $5.83 per share and are initially exercisable beginning on the date that is six months and one day after the issue date and will expire on the fifth anniversary of the initial exercisability date.
So from the time of the announcement until the closing of the offering five days later, the offering size was reduced by close to 7% resulting in lower net proceeds to the company by the amount of $2.8 mln without management giving information to the SEC and investors about this material change.
Lastly, there has been some heated discussion as of late about the company's near- and long-term prospects under the recently announced carbon capture partnership with Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM).
In fact, management was asked rather precisely by one analyst on the call on "how many projects the company would consider executing next year as overall momentum in the market ramps?" and actually had pretty much nothing to offer other than some very general statements:
The work we're doing with Exxon directly is going very, very well. In fact, we just had a meeting with them. We're very well engaged and our teams are very well aligned. As far as other new opportunities, there are those that is true, whether it's DOE, but we're also seeing opportunities emerge besides those sponsored by the government, private companies meeting to have solutions for the things that we do.
So I would say that we - there's a lot of activity around the world on carbon capture.
But at least the company's 10-Q had something more precise to offer with regard to the Exxon Mobil partnership:
In April 2016, the Company entered into a Joint Development Agreement ("JDA") with Exxon Mobil Research and Engineering ("EMRE"). This is a follow-on agreement to approximately two years of comprehensive lab testing with which the Company has collaborated with EMRE. The scope of the agreement with EMRE will initially focus on how to further increase efficiency in separating and concentrating carbon dioxide from the exhaust of natural gas-fueled power turbines. The second phase of the JDA will more comprehensively test the technology in a 2.8 megawatt pilot project. Designs will also be developed for larger scale integrated applications. The JDA contains certain termination provisions depending on progress of the research. The JDA with EMRE also provides a framework for the two companies to protect and share in intellectual property contributed to and developed in the program. The initial term of the JDA with EMRE is approximately three years with technology rights lasting for the term of any patents that are issued.
I already cautioned investors on the very little near-term implications of the partnership for the company's business in a previous article and to instead focus on potential near-term catalysts.
Speaking of potential catalysts, investors can now look forward to a strong finish to an otherwise dismal fiscal year 2016 both from a revenue and cash flow perspective. Moreover, the jury is still out on the Beacon Falls Energy Park project with a decision still firmly expected until the end of the year. Furthermore, management on the call was still optimistic about an extension or at least retroactive reinstatement of the FTC going forward.
On the other hand, investors should be cautioned that all of the catalysts discussed above are now widely expected to kick in and particularly the potential loss of the Beacon Falls Energy Park project would most likely have a devastating effect on the company's share price. In addition, revenue expectations for FY 2017 look way too high at this point and might need to come down by up to 50% going forward.
At least, the latest equity offering has substantially improved the company's balance sheet and liquidity position and in combination with expected substantial positive cash flows for the current quarter, Fuel Cell Energy will enter a most likely very challenging FY 2017 with a solid liquidity position.
Bottom line:
There might be some near-term upside in shares of Fuel Cell Energy as investors might very well chose to focus on some of the short-term catalysts discussed above. Investors should be cautioned though, that FY 2017 is currently expected to be a difficult year for the company with another potential reduction in sales clearly being in the cards at this point. Moreover, a loss of the Beacon Falls Energy Park project would most likely cause the shares to tumble to new all-time lows.
Lastly, management's execution continues to be mediocre at best as again evidenced by the odd timing of the company's Torrington facility expansion project and the lower than expected proceeds from the recent equity offering.
While I am just closing on this article, analyst Carter Driscoll from FBR & Co. (NASDAQ:FBRC) has been out with a research note I would like to share with you:
Despite weak F3Q16 revenue, which we believe reflects a timing issue, multiple projects should be monetized in F4Q, as FCEL maintained $140M-$170M FY16 revenue guidance, implying a very strong F4Q of $56M - $86M. For F4Q, FCEL expects to monetize multiple PPA-based projects including a 5.6 MW plant for Pfizer and a 1.4 MW project for Santa Rita Jail in California. FCEL's margin profile should also improve as low-margin kit sales to POSCO Energy end, replaced by electricity revenue from long-term PPAs and multi- MW project sales (FCEL indicated that it doesn't bid on projects below 4-5 MW).
This F4Q guidance largely leaves aside the 125 MW in pending renewable awards, which we believe should be the next catalyst, along with site selection for the DOE carbon capture project. While some investors might be frustrated the renewable awards have not yet materialized, we remain convinced it's a timing issue and FCEL remains well-positioned to capture the 63.3 MW Beacon Falls project (superior economic profile), some of Connecticut's DEEP 2-20 MW RFP (using a new competitive product), and PSEG's Long Island-based 40 MW fuel cell RFP (lower costs than competitors).
While Mr. Driscoll has been bullish on the company for quite some time now, unnerved investors might feel somewhat assured by his continued optimism with regard to Fuel Cell Energy's future performance here.
Ergo: ich halte mich mit meinen Nachkäufen noch etwas zurück - zumindest ist keine Eile angesagt, dass es in den nächsten Wochen in den Himmel schießen könnte. Es sein denn wishful thinking
Aber: ich bleibe investiert und selbst wenn 2016 und 2017 grätige Jahre für FCE werden sollten - irgendwann wird es besser werden.
Ich denke, dass die hoffnungsvolle Aussicht auf die Q4 Ergebnisse von mindestens 56Mio und möglicherweise über 80Mio nicht schlecht ist.
Interessant im CC gestern war auch, wie sehr FCE Lobbyismus in Washington machen muss, um die Gesetzgebung zur Steuerbefreiung durchzubringen. Man hofft auf die nächsten drei gesetzgebenden Sitzungen des Senats, wobei es offensichtlich nur noch eine vor den US-Wahlen gibt. Das Gesetz läuft Ende 2016 aus. Ich denke, dass solche Entscheidungen auch maßgeblich Investoren beeinflusst und auch von daher Warten angesagt ist.
Der Boden müsste gefunden sein. Und dass dieser ominöse Großinvestor da gekauft hat und zulegen könnte (Wandlung von Optionen bei über US $ 5,75/Aktie) ist ein gutes, sehr gutes Zeichen, denn der wird auch Due Dilligence gemacht haben, wetten ?!
und dann ist aber immer die Gefahr da, dass ein Großer den ganzen Laden kauft, gerade angesichts a) der niedrigen Bewertung, b) der Perspektiven und c) der Technologie....Das wäre dann echt schade, wenn ein Ausverkauf stattfinden würde, selbst wenn die Aktie auf 7,8 geht.....
Käufer und Verkäufer vereinbaren Zeitraum und Umfang für die Due-Diligence-Prüfung, dabei kann ggf. die Zahlung einer Gebühr vereinbart werden, falls ein Kauf nicht zustande kommt. Unterstützt wird der Käufer bei den Due-Diligence-Prüfungen von Steuerberatern, Anwälten, Wirtschaftsprüfern und Fachleuten mit spezifischen Kenntnissen.
2017 wird ein schweres jahr, so oder so ! ebenso wundert man sich warum die kapazitäten erweitert werden wo doch posco nun selber produziert und dadurch kapazitäten frei werden. selbst beacon falls könnte locker mit dem jetzigen kapazitäten abgewickelt werden. selbst wenn alle großen projektgebote auch aufträge werden ist keine panic angesagt das man da überfordert wäre.
chip hat da wohl etwas den überblick verloren und den markt falsch eingeschätzt...
wenn beacon falls scheitert wirds wohl ein kursmassaker geben und die 2017 umsatzplanung der analysten ist hinfällig.
kurz gesagt:
es läuft nur gut wenn beacon falls an land gezogen wird, wenn nicht sehen wir neue tiefstände und meiner meinung nach auch eine 3 vor dem komma. von einem boden kann man noch nicht ausgehen. z.z. sehr hohes risiko !
Warum? Tatsächlich ruckelt es jetzt doch ganz schön voran Richtung Elektromobilität , sogar BMW hat seinen
halbherzigen , schmalreifigen I-Pfad verlassen , und bietet zukünftig die "echten" BMW mit Elektronenkanone an . Dies dürfte TESLA Motors stark zusetzen , denn wenn ich die Wahl habe zwischen
einem habituslosen TESLA und einem schnittigen ( Ja, ich benutze absichtlich dieses alte Wort ) "brutal"
Deutschem schwarzen Elektro-BMW Rennauto , nehme ich den BMW . Von den wahrscheinlich höheren
Verarbeitungs- , Fahrwerks- , und Bremsenqualitäten des BMW schreibe ich hier gar nicht.
Alldieweil machen sich die Auto-Zulieferer Sorgen um die Zukunft , und kaufen alles auf was auch
ein E-Auto braucht . Zuletzt hat der Zuliefergigant *ZF:TRW * für die schwedische Haldex Gruppe ( Bremsen für LKW ) ein Vermögen geboten , und wird z.Zt. dennoch von Knorr-Bremse überboten .
Kurzum , bald werden die klassischen "no-brainer" Übernahmeziele ausgehen , und dann werden Future-
Firmen wie FCEL in den Focus der Big Player rücken .
Santo Subito TESLA ! Was auch immer mit der TESLA Motors AG geschehen wird , ob die Firma fast pleite übernommen wird, oder sogar vom Markt verschwindet ; die Autos selbst werden denke ich immer wertvoll bleiben . TESLA hat der Automobilwelt den seit 30 Jahren benötigten Kick in die Zukunft gegeben, deshalb könnte man die Firma, bzw. Elon Musk glatt heilig sprechen. Wenn ich unglaublich viel Geld zum Anlegen hätte , würde ich mir 3 Model X kaufen und 30 J
ahre konserviert in die Garage stellen . Könnte enormen Wertzuwachs geben.
Zunächst steige ich aber bei FCEL und BALLARD ein , und hoffe auf enormen Wertzuwachs.
Im Moment wäre ich aber froh wenn die mal ein dicken Auftrag an Land ziehen.
Damit das hin und her um die 5.Dollar aufhört.
Aktuell liegen wir bei ca 0,38Cent (vor Splitt).
Ein totaler Witz meine Meinung.
2014 waren die Geschäfte ja auch so gut, dass dort fast 3.Euro die Aktie gekostet hat.
Sorry Leute aber so ganz verstehe ich das nicht. Eigentlich sollte das Geschäft Heute
besser laufen.
die vor 2 jahren angekündigte producktionserweiterung ist bis data nicht gerechtfertigt da dieses jahr quasi kein größerer auftrag an land gezogen wurde.
naja, hoffen wir das es nicht noch schlimmer kommt - ein mulmiges gefühl ist es schon so abhängig von einzelnen projekten zu sein. das orderbuch ist so dünn - es müssen aufträge ran sonst...
LG
Anders gesagt : Ob die Aktie jetzt bei 4,5 oder 7 EUR steht ist nicht so dramatisch , wenn die Wasserstoffpost abgeht , schnellt Sie nach oben . Zunächst müssten endlich mal unsere geliebten Frühstücksspeck-Fälle ( Bacon-Falls) realisiert werden , und direkt danach weitere .BZ-Kraftwerke sind die effizientesten Kraftwerke , und deshalb die KW der Zukunft .
##
Menschen auf dem Mars , wie werden Sie leben?
Ist es nicht faszinierend , dass 75 Mio Km von hier ein kleines Roboterauto jetzt im moment auf dem Gesteinsplaneten Mars herumfährt?Neulich sind wieder superscharfe Marsbilder von Curiosity gesendet worden. Der Mars ist eigentlich eine ideale Umgebung für den Menschen ,
da es außer hübschen Steinen und Gebirgen kein Leben gibt , welches der Mensch negativ beeinflussen könnte . Wahrscheinlich werden auf dem Mars auch BZ-Kraftwerke zum Einsatz kommen , da man Wasser
als Abgas gut gebrauchen kann , um ein paar Bäche oder sogar eine Atmosphäre zu basteln. Die Zukunft beginnt heute.
Lösung : Erzeugung von Wasserstoff mithilfe des PV-Stroms in der Nähe der PV-Anlagen .
Damit kann China dann BZ-Kraftwerke , Ballard-Busse und BZ-Fahrzeuge aller Art antreiben.
Summary
FCEL has been beaten down badly due to the weakness in its financial performance, but investors should not miss the positives as the company is transitioning its business.
The rapid growth in FCELs service backlog will allow it to witness solid revenue growth in the second half of the year since a number of projects will come online.
In fact, FCEL forecasts sequential revenue growth of around 220% at the mid-point as it begins tapping the potential end-market for its products in the distributed generation segment.
FCEL has a robust liquidity position that increased to $179 million last quarter from $130.8 million in the prior-year period on the back of various moves.
FCELs end-market will increase on the back of recent government regulations for the industry that will lead to an increase in the deployment of distributed generation projects.
Shares of FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) have been beaten badly on the stock market in the past six months as they have lost 30% of their value. A key reason behind this drop in the stock price is the pain that FuelCell Energy is experiencing as it shifts to a service-based model as compared to a product-based one. This transition has hurt its financial performance. As such, its product revenue in the third quarter that was reported a week ago declined 56% year-over-year to $13.7 million.
The net impact of this decline was that FuelCell's overall revenue fell 47% last quarter. While this transition had an adverse impact on the stock price performance, the positive thing is that FuelCell's service business continues to grow. Let's take a closer look.
An increasing service backlog is a positive sign
Before going into further discussion, investors should note that despite a significant decline in revenue in the last reported quarter, FuelCell has reiterated its fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $56 million to $86 million, which is in line with its previously stated full-year guidance. This means that FuelCell's business is expected to pick up rapid pace in the final quarter of the year as the company forecasts sequential revenue growth of around 220% at the mid-point.
Even at the lower end of the guidance, FuelCell's sequential revenue growth will come in at almost 160%. Considering that FuelCell has a number of projects going into the execution phase in the final quarter of the year, apart from the strength in its service backlog, it won't be surprising if the company gets close to its forecast.
For instance, at the end of the third quarter, FuelCell Energy's service backlog came in at $299 million, up approximately 33% from the backlog of $225.2 million last year. This growth in the service backlog was more than offset by a decline of 64% in the backlog product revenue on a year-over-year basis.
However, despite this significant drop in the product backlog, its total backlog was up 16% year-over-year to $392.1 million. The more important thing is that the total backlog does not take into account the Beacon Falls project, along with a few other projects such as the megawatt-class fuel cell project in Europe on which FuelCell is currently working on.
In fact, FuelCell submitted multiple bids for more than 50 MW of power plants to the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. If FuelCell wins the bids, it will be building clean energy projects in the range of 2 to 20 megawatts for the department, which will further add to its backlog.
What's more, these new projects will be on the top of the CT DEEP 2-20 MW RFP and PSEG 40 MW Fuel Cell FiT projects that the company plans to start by the end of the year. Thus, considering the new projects that FuelCell Energy expects to finalize in 2016, its service backlog should continue to increase.
More importantly, the switch to a service-based model is a good move from FuelCell Energy since this segment has a sizable end-market. In fact, FuelCell sees the potential of nearly $18 billion in revenue in the global market for on-site CHP and utility-scale projects. Also, the company foresees a market opportunity of $7 billion for its distributed hydrogen products in the transportation and industrial segments.
The important thing to note is that FuelCell is on track to tap the potential in the end-market through its new projects. Recently, FuelCell Energy announced the development of a utility-scale power project that is expected to deliver breakthrough efficiency power generation solutions on a distributed generation scale. The construction of this 3.7-megawatt fuel cell plant will begin in Connecticut shortly.
A robust liquidity position
In order to finance its upcoming projects, FuelCell Energy is doing the right thing by improving its liquidity position. For instance, last quarter, FuelCell included the Riverside project in its long-term project assets in the balance sheet under its PNC Energy Capital facility, which helped it generate approximately $9 million in cash.
At the same time, in the month of July, FuelCell Energy completed a securities offering. As a part of this securities offering, FuelCell sold stocks and issued Series A warrants and Series B pre-funded warrants to a single institutional investor for net proceeds of $34.8 million. Under the terms of this agreement, if the investor plans to exercise the Series A warrants at a future date, FuelCell Energy will get additional proceeds at an exercise price of $5.83 per share.
As a result of these efforts, FuelCell's total liquidity at the end of the previous quarter came in at $179 million, up significantly from the liquidity position of $130.8 million in the year-ago period. This strong cash position should allow FuelCell to execute its newly-secured backlog.
More positives for the fuel cell industry
The fuel cell industry will benefit from recent government legislations, which is good news for FuelCell Energy. The State of New York recently implemented an energy policy in order to support adoption of renewable energy sources, and this includes the increase in the renewable portfolio standards to 50%. In fact, New York has introduced a new tariff structure, valuing distributed generation in support of the development of micro-grid projects.
Likewise, the State Legislature of California recently passed AB-1637, which is expected to support on-site generation using fuel cells. The State now has raised the limit for the fuel cell net energy metering projects to 5 megawatts from the prior limit of 1 megawatt for exemption. This move will encourage more utilities to generate electricity on-site due to the greater exemption being provided by the State.
Conclusion
FuelCell Energy is quite confident of making a comeback in the final quarter of the year on the back of its project wins and a growing service backlog. As such, investors should consider buying the drop in FuelCell shares as the company could make a strong comeback going forward in light of the points discussed above.
Ein hoffnungsmachender Punkt bleibt allerdings das stetig wachsende Servicebacklog, dass man durchaus aus "bread and butter" Business von FCE bezeichnen kann und dass auch weiter absolut vorhersehbare Einnahmen beschert. Es ist also nichts Schlechtes daran auch wenn wir natürlich auch ein ebenso wachsendes Salesbacklog sehen wollen. Aber vielleicht kommt das bald auch noch dazu.
Daher kaufe ich stetig und langsam dazu auch um meinen Einstandspreis weiter zu senken...
eons partnerschaft ist bisher leider eher peanuts, zumindest bisher. ich habe das gefühl die haben es in eine partnerschaft verpackt um das 1 mw kraftwerk zum nulltarif zu instalieren, sozusagen als referenzobjekt. dies ist ok wenn dann das geschäft auch mal anschluß bringt. ich hoffe sehr das fcell die kurve bekommt wobei ich mit diesem managment meine probleme habe. vielelicht kommt ja doch noch ein aufkäufer und bringt die technik dahin wohin sie gehört. unters volk!