Ich bin hier drin WKN 909622 China Mobile

 

BROKER CALL -China Netcom, China Telecom ratings, targets raised -Morgan

Morgan Stanley reiterated its bullish view on the Chinese telecom sector and upgraded its target prices and ratings on China Telecom and China Netcom.

The brokerage raised its target price on China Telecom to 5.5 hkd from 4. 5 hkd, and on China Netcom to 26.3 hkd from 17.5.

The ratings on the two telecom firms were upgraded to ""equal-weight"" from ""underweight"".

It maintained its ""overweight"" ratings for China Mobile and China Unicom, with target prices at 150 hkd and 16 hkd respectively.

""A recent regulatory statement suggests that restructuring is a priority for 2008, and we retain our long-held view that it will likely take place in the second half of 2008, providing a catalyst for Unicom, China Telecom and China Netcom,"" Morgan Stanley said.

It noted that as a leveraged restructuring play, Netcom's valuation would see the most upside swing depending on the format and pricing of a potential Unicom merger.

""We also expected the competitive landscape to remain benign for most of 2008, leaving a stable environment for China Mobile and Unicom to expand revenue and operational scale,"" it said.

It noted that Unicom's solid earnings growth, while achieved mostly through cost rationalization rather than revenue growth, should be sustainable in 2008.

It added that China Mobile remained its top pick in the industry and an effective play on rising disposable income in China, with continued solid earnings growth this year.

At the morning close, China Telecom was up 0.09 hkd or 1.47 pct at 6.2, China Netcom was up 0.72 hkd or 4.34 pct at 17.32, China Mobile was up 0.2 hkd or 0.17 pct at 118.7, and China Unicom was up 0.72 hkd or 4.34 pct at 17. 32.  

China Mobile (0941) Share price has crashed recently and fell below $120. The share is now oversold.

Share price should rebound.

Fundamentals are not affected.

The Group is still growing strongly by 6 million new subscribers per month.

Buy $118.00 Target $130.00, Cut loss $110.00  

 

 

China Mobile '07 Net Pft Likely Up 25% - Merrill

Merrill Lynch expects China Mobile (0941.HK) FY07 net profit likely up 25% at CNY82.59 billion, vs CNY66.03 billion. Says wireless fundamentals remain very strong; estimates stable FY07 ARPU, supported by strong minute of usage increase, wireless data adoption.

Subscriber net adds averaged 5.7 million for 2007. CM's Jan 08 record high net adds of over 7 million may continue due to lack of presence by rival China Unicom (0762.HK) in rural market.

"We expect this competitive dominance to continue for CM for the rest of 2008," Merrill says. Reiterates long-term Buy on best quality growth, excellent management execution and attractive valuation.

Targets HK$165.00.

Results due Mar. 19.  

CMHK Underperforms; HSBC Cuts Tgt To HK$148  

China Mobile, Unicom to post strong 2007 earnings on subscriber growth


China Mobile Ltd, the world's largest mobile carrier, and smaller rival China Unicom Ltd are expected to announce strong growth in 2007 net profit as the rising number of cellphone users continued to boost revenue.

But in 2008, their push into China's high-growth rural areas could weigh on the mobile carriers' margins as they offer more affordable service plans and perks to less affluent customers, said analysts.

Beijing's plan to restructure the sector remains this year's key focus. Some analysts speculate that details of the plan will be unveiled as early as this month following the creation of a new Ministry of Industry and Information

Structural changes in the sector will define prospects for both China Mobile and Unicom over the long-term. Analysts are expecting the plan will pave the way for the consolidation of the current six telecommunications players into three integrated ones.

China may also reveal soon its plan regarding the launch of its homegrown third-generation (3G) technology wireless standard known as the TD-SCDMA, said analysts.

China Mobile, which holds the lion's share of the mainland's wireless market, is expected to report on March 19 a 26-percent rise in 2007 net profit to 83.1 billion yuan from a year earlier, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

The dominant wireless carrier, which posted a net profit of 66 billion yuan in 2006, signed up an average 5.7 million users a month last year after it increased its presence in the country's rural areas.

Unicom is expected to post a more modest growth of 18 percent in 2007 earnings to 7.1 billion yuan from the previous year's 6.1 billion, according to a Thomson poll.

Unicom will announce its results on March 27.

Merrill Lynch expects Unicom's revenue for 2007 to have grown by just 5 percent, although the carrier's profit margin should come in strong at about 54 percent, up 150 basis points from a year earlier, as management cut costs by removing certain handset subsidies for its CDMA wireless network users.

Unicom also provides GSM wireless network service.

Unicom will be key to the government's restructuring plan as Beijing addresses concerns regarding the increasingly expanding market for wireless phones and the falling profit margins of fixed-line phone operators China Telecom Corp and China Netcom Group Corp (Hong Kong).

The increasing popularity of mobile phones in China is dimming the prospects for the fixed-line operators as many of their subscribers are switching to cellphone use.

Most analysts are predicting that Unicom will sell its CDMA network to China Telecom, the bigger of two fixed-line companies, while merging the remaining wireless network business with China Netcom's fixed-line business.



Unicom benefits most



Credit Suisse expects Unicom to benefit the most from the restructuring plan as the wireless phone company will likely sell its CDMA assets at a premium and ensure its future profitability as it swaps assets with China Netcom.

""Unicom will have better bargaining power and its minority shareholders should be protected under the Hong Kong listing rules,"" said Credit Suisse analyst Jeffrey Tam. Unicom shareholders will likely be asked to vote on deals relating to the sale of the company's assets.

Credit Suisse has upgraded the stock to an ""outperform"" from a ""neutral"" and raised its price target to 24 Hong Kong dollars from 15.50 on the expectation that China will formally announce a restructuring plan this quarter.

The restructuring plan, however, could be bad news for China Mobile, whose dominance in the telecommunications market will likely be challenged by new mobile market participants.

Moreover, China Mobile, which is also widely expected by the market to promote China's homegrown TD-SCDMA wireless standard, may have to give up some of its share in the wireless market to its rivals.

At the very least, the policy changes would ensure that China Mobile no longer gains market share, said Goldman Sachs analyst Helen Zhu. The changes may even result in China Mobile losing some market share, albeit gradually, she said.

Over the long-term, China's wireless sector will likely continue to grow.

The penetration rate for China's wireless market is just over 41 percent, with the rural market representing roughly half of that, said Merrill Lynch analyst Cynthia Meng.

""Even in the urban wireless market with approximately 66 percent penetration rate, we believe that there is decent growth potential,"" she said.

By comparison, the average wireless penetration of Western European countries is over 100 percent.

China may also put off for next year the launch of its homegrown 3G network standard as the country focuses on laying down the regulatory framework for the restructuring of the sector, Meng said.

Shares of China Mobile have risen 59 percent over the last 12 months, underperforming Unicom's 88-percent surge, reflecting investor anxiety over the impact of the restructuring on China Mobile's future earnings growth.

China Mobile closed Friday up 1.00 Hong Kong dollar at 107 dollars and Unicom was up 4 cents at 17.10 dollars.  

China Mobile (941, $107.4) 6M Target $160.0 BUY

Event: China Mobile is due to report 2007 financial results on Wednesday.

Analysts forecast China Mobile’s net profit, to be released on Wednesday, to jump 28% yoy to RMB84.2bn.

Earnings drivers: 1) 25% yoy growth in net adds to 68mn which has led to 23% increase in total subscribers to 369mn at end-2007; 2) higher minutes of usage (MOU) – 1H07’s 440 minutes vs 2006’s 381 minutes, 2H07F: 470minutes; 3) stable ARPU – we expect only slight decline for 2007 as increased usage offset lower tariffs; 4) 30-40% growth in value added business revenue.

Given stable cost structure, EBITDA margin is likely to maintain at 54% level.

Dividend payout should maintain at 43%. Analysts forecast final DPS of HK$1.23.

Given weak market sentiment, we do not expect share price to perform well in the near term even if the reported earnings are higher-than-expected. In our view, market focus has already shifted to upcoming industry restructuring, which is likely to favor fixed-line operators in the long run.

The counter is merely trading at 15.7x 2008 PER with EPS growth of 33%. Valuation is attractive in our view. Maintain BUY. However, we are likely to revise down our target price of $160 after results announcement taking into account a de-rating of the stock market  

Merrill Lynch Expects China Mobile 07 Profits Up 25.1%


BEIJING, Mar 18, 2008 (SinoCast via COMTEX)China Mobile Ltd. , the largest mobile telecommunications operator in China, is expected to gain CNY 82.585 billion profits for 2007, up 25.1% year on year, estimated Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER).

The operator is predicated to see its earning before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rise 19.4% year over year to CNY 193.9 billion. And EBITDA margin will stand at 54%, declining one percentage point from the previous year.

Meanwhile, profits for the fourth quarter of 2007 is anticipated to increase 14.1% yearly to CNY 22.7 billion. China Mobile's average revenue per user (ARPU) is estimated to keep stable in 2007, driven by its large amount of traffic together with the wireless data transmission volume. The newly increased user number is forecasted to average 5.7 million per month in 2007, citing Merrill Lynch.

China Mobile will release its 2007 annual financial report on March 19, 2008.  

US gestern

71.56 +3.98 (5.89%)

After Hours: 71.90 +0.34 (0.48%)  

China Mobile Limited Announces 2007 Annual Results

Remarkable Financial Results Favourable Profitability


-- Turnover reached RMB357.0 billion, up by 20.9%

-- EBITDA of RMB194.0 billion, up by 21.6%

-- Profit attributable to shareholders of RMB87.1 billion, up by 31.9%

--
-- Total subscribers exceeded 360 million, up by 22.6%
-- Proposed ordinary final dividend of HK$1.160 per share, total
ordinary dividend for 2007 amounting to HK$1.997 per share,
representing a dividend payout ratio of 43%; proposed special final
dividend of HK$0.016 per share, total special dividend for 2007
amounting to HK$0.101 per share



In 2007, the steady growth of China's economy and the boom in demand for telecommunications services continued to create a prosperous environment for the Group. Leveraging its premium network, strong brand recognition, economies of scale and a refined and effective approach to management, the Group had made positive business progress, delivering remarkable financial results and favourable profitability.

In 2007, the Group's operating revenue reached RMB356,959 million, representing an increase of 20.9 per cent over the previous year. Profitability was significantly enhanced, and profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB87,062 million -- an increase of 31.9 per cent over the previous year. Margin of profit attributable to shareholders reached 24.4 per cent. EBITDA reached RMB194,003 million, representing an increase of 21.6 per cent over the previous year while basic earnings per share reached RMB4.35, an increase of 31.0 per cent over the previous year.

During 2007, the Group enjoyed continued growth in a number of areas, including new customers, new business and new voice usage. These have, in turn, provided momentum for its financial performance.

The Group's subscriber base continued to expand and value-added data services were popular among customers. In addition, the Group successfully promoted informatization and industry specific applications solutions to corporate customers.

On the other hand, the Group had steadily proceeded with tariff adjustments to meet regulatory requirements and market demand. This has enabled the Group to fulfill customer requirements while stimulating voice usage volumes. The last year has seen steady growth not only in voice usage volume but also overall revenue.

As at 31 December 2007, the total number of subscribers had reached 369.339 million, with a net increase of 68.107 million subscribers -- the average monthly net addition exceeded 5.67 million. Total voice usage volume reached 1,818.89 billion minutes and average minutes of usage per user per month (MOU) was 455 minutes. Average revenue per user per month (ARPU) was maintained at RMB 89.

After reviewing the favourable operating results for 2007 and the long-term development plans, as well as the dividend payout plan for the full year of 2007, the Board has recommended the payment of an ordinary final dividend of HK$1.160 per share for the financial year ended 31 December 2007. This, together with the ordinary interim dividend of HK$0.837 per share paid during 2007, amounts to an aggregate ordinary dividend payment of HK$1.997 per share for the full financial year and represents an increase of 44.4 per cent over the annual dividend of HK$1.383 per share paid for the full 2006 financial year. Dividend payout ratio for the year 2007 was 43 per cent.

Due to continued growth in profit and dividend per share, and taking into full account the interests of its shareholders, the Board has recommended the payment of a special final dividend in 2007 of HK$0.016 per share to cater for the effect of the Company's revised depreciation policy on the profits attributable to shareholders. This, together with the special interim dividend of HK$0.085 per share paid during 2007, amounts to an aggregate special dividend payment of HK$0.101 per share for the full financial year of 2007.

Having taken into account various relevant factors such as the Group's overall financial condition, cash flow generating capabilities and future development, the Company plans the dividend payout ratio for the full year 2008 to be 43 per cent.

The Board is of the view that the Company's outstanding operating results and cash flow generating capability will provide sufficient support to future development of the Company, while providing shareholders with a favorable cash return. The Company will endeavor to achieve a longer term sustainable, steadily increasing dividend, with a view to generating the best possible return for our shareholders.

The combination of continued rapid growth in China's economy, rising consumer purchasing power, the development of the rural economy and the acceleration of informatization throughout the country is driving a tremendous demand for communication and information services. This, in turn, is creating a huge market and new opportunities for the Group. Along with rapid technological developments, innovations of new business models come the convergence and crossover of business fields. At the same time, as the Chinese government proceeds with the reform of the telecommunications industry, the industry landscape and competitive environment may experience certain change, creating both new challenges and opportunities.

To meet new challenges and opportunities, the Group will consolidate its overall competitiveness, adapt rapidly to changes in the operational environment. By leveraging its strong foundation and competitive edge, the Group will maintain positive business development and financial performance. The Company endeavours to maintain a solid, long-term business foundation with the goal of creating best possible returns for our investors.
 

City users first to get hands on 3G phones

PEOPLE in Shanghai will be able to buy home-grown 3G phones next week, the first time they have been available on China's mainland.

Industry officials said last night the move highlighted the remarkable progress of China's 3G development and will hasten the process for the country's long-awaited issuing of 3G licenses.

At least two of China Mobile's outlets in the city will demonstrate TD-SCDMA (time division-synchronous code division multiple access) services and sell 3G phones and data cards next week.

Nationally, China Mobile will start to trial the commercial use of networks based on China-developed TD-SCDMA technology in eight cities next month. The cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, said Wang Jianzhou, China Mobile's chairman.

"That means TD-SCDMA has entered the stage of testing market response," said Sandy Shen, an analyst at Gartner Inc, a United States-based IT consulting firm.

Before that, TD-SCDMA was at the stage of solving technical problems and network constriction. China is expected to issue 3G licenses if TD-SCDMA becomes mature, industry insiders said.

China Mobile, which invested heavily to build TD-SCDMA networks in several cities for the Beijing Olympics, purchased 30,000 TD-SCDMA phones and 10,000 data cards through public bidding, the world's biggest cell phone carrier said previously.

Six handset firms won the bid, including ZTE, Samsung and AMOI.

More than 2,000 ZTE TD-SCDMA phones will be available in Shanghai if the carrier starts the services, said Luo Zhongsheng, ZTE's TD-SCDMA terminal product division's general manager.

"The killer applications of TD-SCDMA will probably include mobile TV, video conferencing and handset stock services in China," Luo said.

Many areas in Shanghai, including the Pudong New Area and Metro lines 1 and 2, have TD-SCDMA signals.

The 3G Phones will cost around 3,000 to 3,500 yuan (US$493)  

China Mobile (941) (buy) reported its net profit from last year up 32% to 87B yuan. Operating revenue up 20.9% to 356.9B yuan. The profit was boosted by its subscriber base expanding 22.6% to 369.3M. Net additional subscribers up 28%to 68.1M from 53.2M. Despite about 50% of the new subscribers came from rural areas. APRU down just 1 yuan to 89 yuan last year. Looking ahead, it aims to sign up more than 80M new customers this year to maintain its strong growth. In fact, mobile penetration is only 19% in rural area, lower than 40% in the cities.  

Heavyweight China Mobile  jumped 6.4 percent to
HK$110.90 after the world's largest wireless carrier gained
nearly 8 million subscribers in February.

But some investors are still concerned over a possible
downturn in the market.

"The market is fluctuating quite a bit at the moment. The
index rebounded, tracking gains in other major markets, but some
investors are still holding off as they suspect the market may go
down," said Francis Kwok, director of Peace Town Securities.

"The Hang seng index may face some pressure around 22,000."

The benchmark Hang Seng Index .HSI rose 4.52 percent to
22,063.11 by midday. The China Enterprises Index of Hong
Kong-listed mainland companies , or H shares, rose 5.26
percent to 11,405.88.

Mainboard turnover was HK$50.76 billion ($6.5 billion),
compared with HK$42.4 billion on Thursday morning, the last
trading day before the Easter holiday break.

China Mobile's smaller rival China Unicom  rose as
much as 8.3 percent after it added 1.5 million new subscribers
last month, while fixed-line operator China Netcom
climbed 4.8 percent ahead of its results, which were released
during the midday break.  

China Mobile To Maintain Dominant Position -DH

China Mobile (0941.HK) +6.4% at HK$110.90, supported by record high net adds of 7.97 million subscriber growth in February; still 20-day moving average of HK$112.24 as immediate cap. "Net adds breaking records consistently is a result of China Mobile's strong brand name and extensive mobile network," Dao Heng says. Adds industry revamp to shrink CM's market share in long run inevitably, but does not believe it will lose dominant position in next two years. Trades at 16.6X 2008 P/E, which attractive; keeps Buy call, targets HK$135, which implies 22X 2008 P/E.  

Target HK$143.20  

Deutsche Bank upgrades China Mobile (0941.HK) to Buy from Hold;

 

raises price target 35% to HK$143.20 from HK$106.

 

Says market has underestimated company's innovation in non-voice revenue stream, which has seen steady progress last 2 years on rollout of many premium applications such as mobile payment, mobile TV, handset customization.

 

"We believe expansion of mobile applications and improvements around the delivery of (value-added services)...is one of China Mobile's most important goals for 2008 and 2009."

 

Expects non-voice value-added services revenue to account for 30% of company's 2008 revenue vs 26% last year. Stock +5.2% midday at HK$123.80; HSI up 4.4%.

 

China Mobile, the country's top wireless operator, began trial services of the third generation (3G) mobile phone service on April 1 in eight cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. The third generation mobile phone service features a wireless Internet connection to Internet and videophoning capabilities. Two Shanghai locals try out the 3G handsets at an exhibition hall for China Mobile on Tuesday, April 1, 2008. (Xinhua Photo)  

Deutsche Bank upgrades China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) to Buy and raises its price target 35% to HK$143.20.

 

China Mobile, Apple yet to open formal talks over iPhone launch


   BOAO, Hainan, April 12 (Xinhua) -- China Mobile has not started formal negotiations with Apple Inc. over the iPhone, despite the intention of both sides to cooperate.

   Details about issues such as business models and commercialization have prevented the companies from entering formal talks. No time frame was available either at the moment, China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou said on the sidelines of 2008 conference of the Boao Forum for Asia on Saturday in China's southern Hainan Province.

   "Our door will remain open as long as there is customer demand," said the head the country's largest cell phone carrier during a panel discussion on the sustained growth and development of the telecom industry.

   Apple launched its iPhone -- a hand-held device that combines a mobile phone, a wide-screen iPod and an Internet device into one -- in the United States in January 2007. It planned to launch it into the Asian market this year.

   Wang said China Mobile subscribers currently totaled more than 380 million, nearly 30 percent of the country's total population. The number had been expanding six to seven million per month, mostly fueled by consumers in the rural areas, he added.

   He foresaw a robust future for the telecom industry, both at home and globally, as mobile communications were a "consumption of low energy" and a stimulus for other products such as mobile music.

   More than 200 million China Mobile users have used their phones to download music or songs, he said.

   China, one of the world's fastest-growing cell phone market, was expected to have nearly 600 million people using mobile phones this year.  

China Mobile seeking small stakes in global peers

China Mobile, the world's largest mobile phone operator, said on Saturday that it was seeking small stakes in global telecom firms because controlling stakes had become too expensive.

Although minor holdings would give China Mobile only limited sway over target companies, Chief Executive Wang Jianzhou said there would be wider benefits from such deals.

"Entering into international telecom firms as small shareholders can help us learn from their experiences and gradually develop further," he told a seminar on the sideline of the Boao Forum for Asia in southern China.

China Mobile Ltd. last year bought an 89 percent stake in money-losing operator Paktel Ltd. for $284 million, its first acquisition outside its home market.

Wang said many telecom firms were looking at a small pool of targets in emerging markets, which was greatly driving up acquisition prices.

"It's not realistic for us to try to always get controlling stakes at very high prices," he added, without revealing which markets he was interested in.

Discussing delays in bringing Apple's iPhone to China, Wang said China Mobile was very interested in doing so because many of its customers were hungry for the phone.

The mobile operator said in January that talks with Apple Inc on launching the U.S. company's popular iPhones in China had been called off, although Apple has never commented officially on the issue.

"The door is always open and as long as our clients like it, we will actively push for it," he said.

Wang added that the two sides had reached a consensus on some manner of cooperation but had yet to discuss a range of technical issues. He did not elaborate.

He also said that China Mobile, which is listed only on the Hong Kong market, had not dropped its aim of floating a small batch of shares in Shanghai at some point despite the turbulent market conditions.  

China Mobile Q1 net profit seen at 23.4 bln yuan

JPMorgan Securities Asia said it expects China Mobile to report a net profit of 23.4 bln yuan for the first quarter, up 33 pct year-on-year, from revenue of 93.3 bln yuan, up 20 pct.

The US house said it expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of the mainland's dominant mobile operator to come in at 48.5 bln yuan, up 19 pct year-on-year.

China Mobile is expected to report its first quarter results after market close on Monday.

JPMorgan said the first quarter is usually the weakest period for China Mobile due to a combination of seasonality factors and long holidays, such as the Chinese New Year, during this period.

However, a slight dip in first quarter revenue from the fourth quarter is often followed by a strong rebound in the second and succeeding quarters, it said.

Just as with revenue, average revenue per user (ARPU) will also dip in the first quarter compared with that in the previous period, but is likely to rebound in the second quarter and onwards.

It said China Mobile's ARPU in the first quarter last year was 85 yuan, but the full-year average was 89 yuan.

"This year, we are anticipating an ARPU of 84 yuan for the first quarter of 2008," JPMorgan said.

"Our full-year 2008 blended ARPU forecast is 87.5 yuan," it said.

At market close, China Mobile was up 0.15 hkd or 0.74 pct at 20.55  

China Mobile +3.7%

Citi Tips 1Q Net Pft +51%, Buy

China Mobile (0941.HK) +3.7% at HK$136.30, adding to 4-day 4.4% rally, in part on expectations of strong 1Q results due out later today. Citigroup forecasts net profit likely +51% on-year at CNY26.5 billion, even higher than CNY24.9 billion tipped by Dow Jones poll of 5 analysts; says strong 1Q partially attributable to tax unification, while net additional subscribers will continue to surprise market every month; tips over 8 million new subscribers added in March. Citi forecasts 1Q ARPU likely down 1% on-year at CNY84.5 but MOU will continue growing trend at +11% on-year. Citi rates stock at Buy with HK$150 target price; is 3rd most heavily traded with HK$1.854 billion.