Der Doomsday Bären-Thread
Dadurch wird der Dollar geschwächt. Wie man sieht, konnte der EUR gut zulegen. Teilweise wird ja sogar damit gerechnet, dass es bald zu Zinssenkungen kommt.
Je schwächer der Dollar, desto geringer die US-Kaufkraft auf dem Weltmarkt.
Nun ist aber gerade die USA ein Land, dass ein riesiges Handelsdefizit aufweit. D.h., es wird sehr viel importiert und wenig exportiert. Ein schwacher Dollar hat also zur Folge, dass die Amerikaner einen Großteil der Waren - weil importiert - wesentlich teurer bezahlen müssen.
Daher meine Frage: Wenn die Fed ihre Niedrig-Zinspolitik beibehält, hat das dann nicht zur Folge, dass der Inflation auf ZWEI WEGEN Vorschub geleistet wird?
1) Über die Geldmenge
2) Über die "steigenden" Importpreise
Jetzt sieht man in der Tendenz, dass das Handelsdefizit der USA in den letzten Jahrzehnten konsequent gestiegen ist. Dieser Trend wird sich vermutlich fortsetzen, ist er doch strukturell bedingt (Binnenmarktorientierung der Wirtschaft). Hinzu kommt, dass der Dollar in den nächsten Monaten vermutlich weiterhin schwach bleibt. Zumindest solange, bis sich der Housing Markt erholt hat und die Wirtschaft insgesamt anzieht, da die Fed erst dann die Zinsen erhöhen kann, ohne die Gefahr eines "Hard Landings" herauszubeschwören.
Nun......... erstaunlich finde ich, dass die Inflation trotz der zuvor beschriebenen Zusammenhänge so niedrig ist. Man sollte doch davon ausgehen, dass die Inflation mit dem Wertverlust des Dollar korreliert - bei einer Wirtschaft, die, wie die USA erheblich vom Import abhängig ist. Auch der Ölpreis ist - trotz des Rückganges auf 60 USD - noch immer doppelt so hoch wie 2003 (30 USD). Gleichzeitig ist die Geldmenge in den USA - u.a. durch Carry Trades - gestiegen. Auf die Rohstoffpreise will ich an dieser Stelle gar nicht eingehen.
Meine Frage: Wo ist die Inflation geblieben?
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das einzige was den von Dir als Schwarzmalern bezeichneten Zeitgenossen dazwischengekommen ist, ist El Nino; die durch ihn verursachte inverse Wetterlage hat
a) keine Hurricanes verursacht
b) den Ölpreis einbrechen lassen (warmes Wetter + keine Hurricanes)
c) was zur Entlastung an der Preisfront geführt hat
d) was zur Entlastung an der Zinsfront geführt hat
e) die Baukonjunktur über den Winter gerettet
b) hat desweiteren den Konsument entlastet, so daß er wenigstens eine halbwegs ordentliche hoilday season hingelegt hat.
Bei "normaler" Wetterlage wären wir wohl kaum unter 60$ gefallen mit ziemlicher Sicherheit auch nicht unter 70$. Dann wäre mindestens eine weitere Zinserhöhung der FED fällig gewesen. Das hätte nicht nur die Wirtschaft stärker als soft abgekühlt, sondern auch dem Housing-Markt den Todesstoß versetzt.
Wie wacklig das ganze System in den USA ist, sieht man daran, daß trotz Vollbeschäftigung die Zahl der Zwangsversteigerungen seit nunmehr über einem Jahr steigt und steigt.
Einen Ölpreis unter 50$ wird die OPEC (und auch Rußland) auf Dauer nicht hinehmen.
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Bei einem fallenden Dollar dumm dran sind vor allem die Europäer, da deren US-Aktien oder US-Staatsanleihen dann, in Euro gerechnet, an Wert verlieren.
Denn dieser Schmetterling bestimmt die Hurrikansaison - und damit, ob Öl Ende 2007 bei 80 oder 30 Dollar stehen wird. Die Frage ist nur, welcher der vielen Schmetterlinge "der Maßgebliche" ist... Vielleicht ist es doch ein anderer auf Hawaii oder auf den Fidschi-Inseln, der den entscheidenen "Anstoß" liefert?
Wirtschaft wird jedenfalls immer komplizierter...
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Zu: "...es wird ja eventuell billiger, wenn man mit den geplanten Ausgaben noch etwas wartet." Das gilt eher für Japaner (und ist Ursache der dortigen Deflation). Die Amis kaufen, und wenn es billiger wird, kaufen sie noch mehr. Und wenn sie nicht gestorben sind, dann kaufen sie noch heute (alles hoch).
aktuell:
Die Zahl der Erstanträge ist in den USA auf 357.000 gestiegen. Erwartet wurden 310.000 bis 315.000 neue Anträge.
Bestätigt meine Posting in 3478;
kaum wird's kalt müssen die Bauarbeiter stempeln
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Bei den Jobs kann man wohl weniger lügen als bei abstrakteren Größen wie der Kerninflation, die angeblich sinkt, obwohl jeder, der in USA lebt, merkt, dass ständig Alles teurer wird.
Positive News:
Der New York Empire State Index der New York Fed notiert im Februar bei 24,35. Im Vormonat hatte er noch bei 9,13 gestanden. Erwartet wurde er aktuell im Bereich 10,0 bis 11,0.
(Liegt dies am warmen Klima? Stammen die Arbeitslosen alle aus dem "rust belt"?)
wenn frieden ist.(soweit wird es natürlich nie kommen)
Oder was machen die US-soldaten dann....
mfg
ath
Damit ist das Defizit nicht mehr gedeckt...
Capital flows to US reverse in December to outflow of $11B
Dec first outflow of capital from US since June 2005
Capital flows to US reverse in December to outflow of $11B
Dec first outflow of capital from US since June 2005
Dollar falls after Treasury capital flows data
Japan's investors expect rate hike on strong GDP
Economy grew faster than expected in the last three months of 2006; BOJ cautious about weak consumption, consumer prices.
February 15 2007: 6:32 AM EST
TOKYO (Reuters) -- Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the last three months of 2006, hitting its strongest pace in nearly three years and reviving expectations for an interest rate hike by the central bank next week.
The yen surged and key euroyen futures fell on the stronger-than-expected growth figures as they reignited speculation that the Bank of Japan could lift interest rates at its Feb. 20-21 policy board meeting.
Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of the economy, rose 1.2 percent in October-December from the previous quarter thanks to a rebound in personal consumption, data showed Thursday, beating market expectations for a 0.9 percent rise.
That translated into annualized expansion of 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, above economists' consensus forecast for a 3.8 percent rise.
It was the eighth straight quarter of growth and the fastest growth since January-March 2004. It also far exceeded the July-September figure of 0.1 percent real growth or 0.3 percent annualized.
The growth figures underscored views that the world's second-largest economy is on a solid recovery path as it emerges from years of deflation.
"This is a strong reading," said Norihiro Fujito, general manager of Mitsubishi UFJ Securities' investment research and information division. "The solid reading for both consumption and capital investment is noteworthy.
"This will no doubt strengthen the argument for a rate hike by the BOJ next week, though I still think they will not raise rates," he said.
The yen strengthened to ¥120.31 to the dollar after the data release from around ¥120.70. Benchmark June euroyen futures slid as low as 99.295 down 2.5 basis points on the day.
Market views were divided on whether the BOJ could raise rates next week, with nearly half betting on that possibility, according to a survey conducted after the GDP data.
The Reuters poll of 49 traders and analysts in Tokyo's foreign exchange and bond markets showed 24 expect the BOJ to raise rates to 0.50 from 0.25 percent next week, while five expect a rate hike in March.
A similar poll conducted after tame consumer prices data was released last month had shown that 20 out of 39 respondents saw the BOJ not raising interest rates in February.
The central bank has kept rates steady since last July, when it raised them for the first time in six years.
Cautious about consumption, BOJ
Weak personal consumption and consumer prices were among the reasons for the BOJ's decisions in December and January to leave its overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.25 percent.
Private-sector consumption, which accounts for some 55 percent of GDP, led fourth-quarter GDP growth with a 1.1 percent rise, as more people stayed at hotels and bought cars and flat-screen TVs, a Cabinet Office official said.
That was above a median market forecast for a 0.8 percent rise in private consumption, rebounding from July-September when it dipped 1.1 percent due largely to bad weather.
But Economics Minister Hiroko Ota expressed a cautious view on personal consumption, although she said the GDP figures confirmed that the economy is recovering.
"If you look at consumption in both July-September and October-December, the movement is still largely flat and there's still some weakness," Ota told reporters.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki, asked how the GDP figures could affect BOJ policy, said he expects the central bank to look at not only GDP but various indicators and listen to different opinions in deciding on monetary policy.
"Monetary policy is up to the BOJ," he told a news conference. "We expect the BOJ to make an appropriate decision while paying attention to the government's broad economic policy."
The policy chief of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Shoichi Nakagawa, a vocal opponent of a BOJ rate hike, told reporters the growth data did not change his view on economic conditions, saying the current economic expansion is "fragile."
Some politicians worry that a mistimed rate rise could harm the economic recovery.
Robust business spending as well as firmness in exports also supported the solid growth in the last three months of 2006.
Corporate capital spending grew 2.2 percent, above the market consensus forecast of a 1.5 percent rise, thanks to solid demand for software, general machinery and high-tech machinery such as car navigation systems, the ministry official said.
External demand - exports minus imports - pushed up overall GDP by 0.2 percentage point thanks to solid export growth.
The GDP deflator, a measure used to derive real GDP from nominal GDP by adjusting for price changes, fell 0.5 percent in October-December from a year earlier.
That was smaller than a 0.7 percent drop in July-September, as falls in crude oil prices pushed down import costs. Imports are subtracted when calculating GDP, meaning recent falls in oil prices have contributed to the upward pressure on the deflator.
Nominal GDP grew 1.2 percent, or an annualized 5.0 percent, in October-December. Nominal annualized GDP growth exceeded real growth for the first time since October-December 2004, when real GDP fell 0.2 percent and nominal GDP marked 0.0 percent growth.
The government's target of 1.9 percent real GDP growth in the fiscal year ending on March 31 can be met even if the economy posts negative real growth of 0.4 percent in January-March.
For the whole of 2006 the economy grew 2.2 percent.
Economists expect growth to slow in January-March due to weaker consumption as a reaction to the surge in the preceding quarter, but forecast a moderate recovery to follow, citing firm private capital spending and a soft landing in the U.S. economy.
Find this article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/15/news/....japan.economy.reut/index.htm
Ich habe diese Hoffnung schon seit 2001 begraben.
Ich meine ,wenn es der Wirtschaft gut ginge, würden die Worte eines Fed-Präsidenten
sowieso einen "Bull"shit interessieren und die Leute nicht jeden Furz kommentierenbzw. an den Lippen hängen.
(ich staune , warum die Bullen auf die Zahlen reagieren, wenn die eh keinen impact haben "sollen")
Im Dezember flossen in der Summe 11 Milliarden Dollar aus USA ab. Gleichzeitig erreichte das Defizit mit 61 Milliarden Dollar einen Höchststand. Die Unterdeckung beträgt mithin 71 Milliarden im Dezember.
By Rex Nutting
Last Update: 9:15 AM ET Feb 15, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. industrial production fell 0.5% in January, the biggest drop since Hurrican Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in September 2005, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Capacity utilization fell sharply to 81.2% from 81.8%. The drops in output and capacity surprised economists, who were expecting production to fall 0.1% and capacity utilization to slip to 81.6%. Production is up 2.6% in the past 12 months. Manufacturing output fell 0.7% in January. Output of utilities rose 2.3% as cold weather returned after a warm start to the winter. End of Story
-die eigentlich nicht das Bier von Ariva ist- gesperrt.
Mich hat er paar Tage rausgenommen, weil ich einem Schlacke 04 Hooligan mal Tachilles
wg. Verteilung schwarzer Sterne angesagt habe.
Kann es sein, daß dieser Mod sukzessive Bären gesperrt hat (quasi Anlässe sucht), um die Stimmung anzuheizen bzw. ausufern zu lassen ?
Wednesday February 14, 9:12 am ET
By Sarah Max, Money Magazine contributing writer
Less than a year after moving into her new 2,100-square-foot house in Lenexa, Kans., Susan Sabin has strung up lemon lights in her front window.
The lemons, she says, go perfectly with the home's most prominent features: jammed doors, warped windows, bent pipes and cracked walls. "The house is essentially splitting in two," says Sabin.
ADVERTISEMENT
At the peak of the recent housing boom, home buyers scooped up a million newly built homes every year while homeowners poured more than $200 billion into renovations. But now stories of shifting soil, leaky roofs, damaged stucco and other construction defects abound.
Though many builders have worked to improve the quality of their houses over the past decade, says Alan Mooney, president of Criterium Engineers, a national engineering firm, the building frenzy also opened the door for unskilled labor, unscrupulous contractors and untested products.
"When everyone is out there building as fast as they can, that does result in more defects," he says.
Contractor problems rank among the most common consumer complaints, according to the Better Business Bureau, and a recent Criterium Engineers study found that 17 percent of new residential construction projects inspected by the firm in 2006 had at least two significant problems.
If you've been gnashing your teeth over defects in your new or recently renovated home (and complaining to the builder hasn't solved them), it's probably cold comfort that you're not alone.
What do you do? A lawsuit is bound to be expensive and messy, if you can even get in front of a jury at all; many builder's contracts nowadays include a binding-arbitration clause that essentially waives your right to a jury trial.
Of course, your best bet is to catch the problem early, before you've paid for the work. But even after the job is long done, you still have a powerful tool on your side: the builder's need to protect his reputation.
Here's how to evaluate the likelihood that you'll be able to get your home repaired at minimal cost, and your plan of action.
Check your warranty
Your builder or remodeler likely gave you what's called an "express" warranty, which typically covers everything from cosmetic flaws to serious defects for a year (most common) to 10 years (pretty rare).
If the warranty names the defect you're complaining about, gather your documentation and ask your contractor to repair the damage at no additional charge. If your warranty has expired, you aren't necessarily out of luck.
Depending on the state you live in and the nature of the defect, your house may still be covered by a so-called implied warranty of habitability for another seven to 10 years. But it will be up to you to prove that the defects are so severe that they are a health or safety hazard.
Learn how to spot a real defect
Your next step is to figure out whether your problem is a bona fide defect under the terms of the warranty (or in the eyes of an arbitrator) or what home builders define as an acceptable imperfection.
"There is no such thing as a perfect house," says Mooney. "A lot of what people consider defects are really not defects."
According to the National Association of Home Builders' performance guidelines, small cracks in the interior concrete slab are normal; only those exceeding 3/16 of an inch should be repaired. Hammer marks or nail pops visible within six feet are acceptable, but marks you can see farther away are not.
You may not agree with these definitions, but it's tough to fight them. (You can order a copy of the NAHB's "Residential Construction Performance Guidelines" for $39.95 at BuilderBooks.com.)
Gather the evidence
Document problems with photos and detailed notes. Record everything from conversations with your builder or contractor to the exact time - and the weather conditions - on the day, say, your basement flooded.
"Make the assumption that this will end up in a significant dispute," says Mooney.
To bolster your case, you may need to pay for expert advice. An independent inspector or structural engineer will charge about $250 to $500 to give your house a full examination, along with a detailed report of the problems at the heart of your dispute.
After Ann and David Richardson's contractor put a two-story addition on their Kansas City house last year, it failed city inspections twice. The couple then hired an engineer who found that, among other problems, inadequate roof support was putting pressure on the walls and forcing them to bow.
"He said the walls were life-threateningly out of plumb," says David. Faced with this assessment, the contractor agreed to do the repair (though he later declared bankruptcy before he finished).
Find greater strength in numbers
If your housing development was constructed by a single builder, see if your neighbors are having similar complaints. "You'll often find that their houses are having the same problems as you," says Nancy Seats, president of Homeowners Against Deficient Dwellings, a group that helps homeowners fight back against construction defects.
After Pam and Jeff Cobbs noticed that the windows on their new home in Bend, Ore. leaked during rain storms, they teamed up with other neighbors who were having similar problems.
As it turned out, the windows and siding on more than 20 houses on the block had been installed improperly, causing water damage and, in some cases, mold.
Just a few months after the group complained, the builder sent in crews to remove all of the siding and trim, reinstall the windows, wrap the houses, put on brand new siding and repaint everything.
Know your state rules
If you aren't bound by a binding-arbitration agreement and you think you might have a case for a lawsuit, be aware that in recent years, 30 states have adopted "notice and opportunity to repair" laws, which require homeowners to give builders a chance to assess and remedy the problem before they go to court.
Typically, you have to submit a written complaint to the builder or contractor, who then has a certain amount of time to inspect the property and make repairs - usually up to 90 days.
Unfortunately, these laws, designed to protect builders, says Janet Ahmad, president of Home Owners for Better Building, don't obligate the builder to fix your problem (after an inspection, they may tell you that the fault is unrelated to their construction).
But your builder may patch up your home to avoid a lawsuit. If not, you are probably free to sue. To find out about your local "fix it" laws, start by calling your state attorney general's office.
If all else fails, get creative
When the first cracks began appearing in Susan Sabin's home shortly after she moved in last June, she contacted Pulte Homes, which sent in engineers and contractors to repair minor problems. But Sabin still believes they're ignoring major defects.
"They keep fixing the symptoms," she says. "I want them to fix the source of the problem."
So Sabin has strung up lemons and opened her house to anyone who wants to see the cracks. Soon after, her story made the local news.
Pulte, which says the problems with the home are a result of soil expansion underneath, has so far not agreed to rebuild Sabin's home from scratch. But it certainly is not ignoring her complaints.
"Structurally her home is as sound as any other home we've built in the city," says Todd Lipschutz, Pulte's division president in Kansas City. "We will make the necessary repairs."
Liz Rappaport
Financing Concerns
Street.com
2/15/2007 9:36 AM EST
Today's TIC data highlights the ever-present financing concerns out there about the U.S. trade deficit. The trade deficit ballooned in December to $61.2 billion from $58.1 billion in November, while net purchases of U.S. securities fell to a startlingly low $15.6 billion, down from a net of $84.9 billion in November, and far lower than analysts' expectations for a $60 billion net. Three reasons: U.S. purchases of foreign securities surged; foreign purchases of U.S. Treasuries softened slightly; and, foreigners sold U.S. equities in December.
The data don't necessarily reveal a theme regarding diversification by foreign central banks, but they do remind us that if U.S. investors are going to buy overseas assets, we need all the more interest from foreigners in U.S. securities to keep the gap filled, says Nick Bennenbroek, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. The news is dollar negative.
U.S. Treasury buying by China and Japan both increased. U.K. buying of U.S. securities jumped $16.5 billion - often cited as a proxy for purchasing by oil-producing nations. Offsetting that was the Caribbean, which shows a $15 billion decrease in U.S. securities in December - often cited as a proxy for hedge fund activity.
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Hobbypirat: kann schon sein, was soll's, der Thread "funktioniert" ja noch...
Motto: Traue keinem Chart, den Du nicht selber gepusht hast ;-))