Der Doomsday Bären-Thread
The monthly figure for December rose more than expected, to $61.2 billion — huge by historical standards, but still well below the August 2006 peak of $68 billion. The $58.2 billion posted in November 2006, when oil prices moderated as U.S. exports rose, was the lowest figure seen since July 2005.For all of 2006, the trade imbalance expanded to a record $763.6 billion — a fifth consecutive annual record.
The new trade report showed that the deficit with China shot up 15.4 percent last year to total $232.5 billion, the largest imbalance ever recorded with any country, The Associated Press reported.The deficit could prove critical for President George W. Bush, who is seeking to shore up political support for more international deals to lower trade barriers. In its annual economic report to Congress on Monday, the Bush administration emphasized that exports by the United States to other countries were surging.....http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/13/business/trade.php
Ich verlasse mich auf das, was ich sehe. Alles andere ist Spekulation.
Klarsicht erfordert Berücksichtigung beider Seiten, Pro und Contra.
Wenn in einer Argumentationskette immer mehr Pro-Argumente wiederlegt werden, wird sie zunehmend hinfällig.
Ich sehe die Lage bei GM noch nicht eindeutig, da dafür noch Nachhaltigkeit fehlt.
Allerdings ist jetzt bereits mein präferiertes Szeanrio hinfällig, womit die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür deutlich sinkt.
Schulden liegen voll im Trend. Zinseszins erfordert Schuldesschuld.
Für mich riecht das alles verdammt inflationär und voll nach Fahrplan.
Die Logenbrüder überschütten die Welt mit ihrem Papier bis zum Kollaps.
Das wäre logisch in deren Sinn.
Private firm says Merrill triggered crisis; plans asset sale to Credit Suisse
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:56 PM ET Feb 13, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Subprime lender ResMAE Mortgage Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection this week, the latest sign of stress in the market for low-end home loans.
ResMAE said it plans to sell most of its assets to Swiss bank Credit Suisse (CS) for $19 million as part of its bankruptcy reorganization, according to the Monday filing.
ResMAE is the latest subprime lenders to descend into crisis. Mortgage Lenders Network USA had to be bailed out by Lehman Brothers (LEH) earlier this year, while rival Ownit Mortgage Solutions filed for bankruptcy in late December.
New Century Financial (NEW) shares have lost almost half their value this year. The lender said last week that it found errors in the way it accounted for subprime mortgages. Banking giant HSBC Holdings (HBC) disclosed problems in its subprime business last week too.
ResMAE was started in late 2001 by Jack Mayesh, Edward Resendez and William Komperda, who had sold Long Beach Financial, another subprime lender they founded, to Washington Mutual (WM) in 1999.
ResMAE grew quickly to become a top 20 subprime lender in the U.S. However, by early 2005, loan originations began to wane, knocking ResMAE's profitability. By cutting costs and lifting the interest rates it charged on loans, the company said it was able to make a small profit last year "despite the industry collapsing around it."
But then Merrill Lynch (MER) , which had become the largest buyer of ResMAE's loans, asked the company to repurchase more than $300 million worth of loans. That "enormous" repurchase request, which ResMAE disputes, triggered a liquidity crisis and forced the company to put itself up for sale.
The repurchase demands "crippled ResMAE's operations by requiring the company to post enormous reserves, which dramatically reduced its capital and operating liquidity," the company said in its filing. End of Story
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
It's Jawbone Time
Street.com CC
2/13/2007 3:31 PM EST
I may take some heat for this call, but I think it time for the Fed to start jawboning about the Liquidity bubble. Private equity and commercial real estate transaction valuations are starting to become downright silly. The common factor is OPM equity and cheap debt.
Clearly, Mr. Bernanke cannot control the cover of Business Week or the actions of KKR. But he can remind market participants of the nature of the economic cycle.
In fact, I think he needs to talk much less friendly to financial market participants. I have been a big proponent of the "long pause" concept. But, it's time to change course.
The residential real estate bear market has been digested by the markets, and the inflation slowdown that I expected has happened. In my opinion,it would be prudent to prepare the financial markets for another round of rate hikes.
Investors may cringe at my suggestion. But, this Fed chairman must not assume the same position as his predecessor did with the infamous " Greenspan put". That mentality has spawned a series of rolling bubbles, the consequences of which we still face today.
Homebuilders Are Extremely Risky
Street.com
2/13/2007 3:40 PM EST
On Feb. 5, I posted Homebuilders: The Most Overvalued Group and there's nothing in the earnings report from KB Home (KBH) to change that view today.
The PHLX Residential Housing Sector Index represents an industry that's 53.8% overvalued. If you look at the chart in my Feb. 5 post it would tell you to respect the downtrend. That point on the trend is at 256.94 and HGX declined to 240.67 at yesterday's low, just one week later. Today's bounce does not make a new up trend, it provides an investment opportunity to reduce exposure to the group.
KB Home (KBH) is trading like it should be buy rated and undervalued - but it rates a hold and is 73.1% overvalued. KBH reported a loss of $49.6 million or 64 cents a share and its cancellation rate is a staggering 48%. KB not for me - Investors now have yet another chance to lighten up with shares approaching my annual risky level at $54.84.
Es rappelt mächtig im US - Housing Sektor, das ist der absolut negative Newsflow. Hab‘ gerade mal nach dem Besuch von zwei US – Sites die Schlagzeilen aufgepickt. Mich wundert’s wirklich, dass ich da momentan keine spürbaren Auswirkungen auf die US - Märkte vernehmen kann. Und es hängt doch auch noch jede Menge Industrie hinten dran: For example, production in furniture, household appliances and carpeting, .....
Foreclosures jump 25% in January
ResMae Bankruptcy; Credit Suisse to Buy Assets
KB Home Has First Quarterly Loss in Decade on Costs
Shares of NovaStar hit a five-year low
It's absurd to call the bottom of housing
Vermehrt wird in letzter Zeit über die Medien berichtet, dass Hedge - Fonds sich zukünftig auch privaten Anlegern öffnen werden bzw. wollen.
Ausgehend von der Idee, dass Hedge - Fonds exclusiv sind und ihren Eignern enorme Renditen bescheren, liegt bzw. lag der Vorteil von Hedge - Fonds auch darin, dass sie der breiten Öffentlichkeit keine Rechenschaft schuldig sind bzw. waren, wie sie ihre Renditen erzielt haben.
Das erste IPO eines Hedge - Fonds in den USA, das IPO von Fortress, sorgte für einen großen Wirbel in den USA und zauberhafte Kursgewinne am ersten Handelstag. Warum aber brachten die Eigner Fortress überhaupt an die Börse ?
Daniel Gross nennt seine fünf Gründe für eine bevorstehende Hedge - Fonds – Blase.
Interessant finde ich an dieser Stelle, dass die vermögenden Haushalte der "Happy Few" ( Haushalte mit Vermögen über 25 Mill. $ ) ihre Hedge – Investments in 2006 erheblich zurückgefahren haben. Dieser Personenkreis hat aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach auch vor dem Platzen der DotCom – Blase seinerzeit den Aktienanteil im Portfolio drastisch reduziert. Gibt es hier evtl. Parallelitäten aufgrund von Wissensvorsprüngen ?
Over the Hedge
Signs of the coming hedge-fund apocalypse.
By Daniel Gross
Posted Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2007, at 7:16 AM ET
Because I'm
writing a book about booms and busts in American history, I've spent a lot of time thinking about how real and rational economic trends cross over into bubble territory. For the Internet, residential real estate (now officially popped), and alternative energy, there were always telltale signs of bubbleness.Those same signs suggest that our next bubble is already here, and it's … hedge funds.
Let's review the classic warning signs:
1) Public investors are getting really excited when insiders sell, believing they're being cut in on a great deal. Friday was the
IPO of hedge fund Fortress, the first U.S. hedge fund to go public. It was priced at $18.50 and closed the first day at $31, a 67.6 percent increase. The whole idea of hedge funds is that they are exclusive and that the massive rewards—2 percent management fees and 20 percent of the profits—flow to the guys who own it. The advantage of running a hedge fund, as opposed to a mutual fund, is that you don't have to tell the public how much you've made or shed any light on precisely how you did it. So, why are some of the sharpest tacks in the business willing to sell out now and sacrifice all the advantages inherent in the hedge-fund structure? According to the prospectus, the five guys who started the business collectively own shares worth about $9.4 billion based on today's price.2) Everybody and their mother is getting into the business. In the late stages of most bubbles, people from outside the hot industry—including many who never showed much interest in business at all—plunge headfirst into the boiling waters. You know them. The Fortune 500 corporate warriors who reinvented themselves as dot-com hipsters in the spring of 2000, the accountant who gave it all up to flip condos in Naples last year, the oil-company executives who would like you to think they're really interested in carbon capture and cellulosic ethanol. Now, we've got
politicians, diplomats, and policy wonks, who are frequently the last to know about any important private-sector trend, starting hedge funds.3) As the naive newbies are plunging in, the successful early adapters move on to the next big thing. Charles Merrill, the founder of Merrill Lynch, famously sold stocks before the 1929 market crash. AOL founder Steve Case saved his dot-com fortune by acquiring the more-solid assets of Time Warner in 2000. The founders of Fortress aren't the only really rich people who are moving to diversify their holdings away from hedge funds.
Spectrem Group, which tracks the spending and investing habits of the very wealthy, in January reported that truly, filthy rich (those with household net worth of more than $25 million) have recently cut back sharply on their hedge investments. The percentage of such homes with hedge-fund investments fell from 38 percent in 2005 to 27 percent in 2006. Generally speaking, the truly, filthy rich are truly, filthy rich because they know something you and I don't.4) In the late stages, the investment craze crosses over into the broader consumer culture. In the summer of 1929, stock promoter John J. Raskob's article in Ladies' Home Journal, which urged everyday Americans to build leveraged portfolios, was a clear sign of the top. In the 1990s, the appearance of theStreet.com money maven
James Cramer in ads for Rockport shoes proved to be a similar omen. For hedge funds' dangerous spillover into mass consumer culture, look no further than your local Kenneth Cole outlet, where you can slip your tired feet into the Hedge Fund, which is … a loafer! And, uh-oh, the $160 shoe is already marked down 25 percent! (Hat tip to Forbes, registration required.)5) My portfolio is in turnaround. If there's one group of businesspeople that is even slower on the uptake when it comes to hot trends than politicians, it's Hollywood executives. Which is why television shows are often excellent signs that a bubble is popping. In 2000,
Darren Star, who had developed the zeitgeist-capturing show Sex and the City for HBO, rolled out The $treet on Fox, a show that chronicled the hot goings-on at a brokerage firm. It was canceled a few months later, when the American public suddenly fell out of love with stocks. In October 2005, the inevitable real-estate sitcom, inevitably titled Hot Properties, and inevitably detailing the escapades of four hot female brokers, debuted on ABC—and was canceled soon after, when the American public began to fall out of love with real estate. Now, Doug Ellin, who developed Entourage for HBO, is making another HBO series based on a hedge fund.http://www.slate.com/id/2159584/By Doug Kass
"Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system and it is not functioning properly."
-- Jeremy Grantham
Yesterday (# 3418) we argued that a key tenet to the rosy view of the markets -- the government's release of relatively low inflation rates -- is bunk, and that the rate of inflation has been systematically understated.
By contrast, I wrote that I prefer to look at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank's weighted median CPI to get a better gauge on the real level of inflation.
Today we argue that the generally accepted observation that forward P/E multiples are relatively low -- another essential argument underlying the bullish market view -- is also likely to be proven incorrect.
Corporate profits are booming. In fact, U.S. corporate profits in 2006 rose to their highest as a portion of GDP in over 75 years.
The chart below, prepared by ContrarianEdge.com's Vitaliy Katsenelson, graphically depicts how high current corporate profit margins are above trend line.
In many ways, Katsenelson's analysis reminds me of the chart of housing affordability (home prices divided by household incomes) which, when stretched into a two-sigma event in late 2004-early 2005, served as a catalyst for a sharp downturn in the housing markets in 2005-07. It is my view that expectations of business profit margins and corporate profits over the next several years might outrun both the economy's potential to deliver, and most traders' generally bullish expectations.
Demand and productivity, price and cost levels, risk perception, credit volume and credit difficulties are all incorporated into forecasts of future profitability, and the relationships among these variables can be viewed as constituting an enduring core of the business cycle. External shocks and policy effects are more transitory and at the periphery, but they have to be considered in forecasts.
(Chart unten)
That said, I can count a number of factors that could result in a contraction and mean reversion of corporate profits: rising interest rates, a tightening labor market, a host of cost pressures in materials and/or an end to the enormous productivity gains of the past five years. As well, in a world of heightened geopolitical risks, normalcy can quickly morph into abnormalcy -- and higher prices of "stuff," like oil, to levels never imagined.
Although the U.S. economic upswing of the last several years provides a vivid example of how profits, investment, and an exuberant stock market can reinforce each other, long business expansions, as seen in the chart, have been hard to sustain over time.
The most vivid example outside the U.S. was Japan in the 1980s, when an investment-driven and speculative boom gave way to protracted stagnation. In the U.S., after deterioration in the 1970s and early 1980s, U.S. business cycles moderated again, as in the first two post-World War II decades. But globally, recessions became more frequent and more severe in the second half of the postwar era.
History teaches us that "what goes up must come down."
Street Insight Contributor
2/13/2007 12:14 PM EST
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Danach ein weiterer Artikel eines Bond-Experten, der dies NICHT glaubt. Er geht davon aus, dass ein weiterer Anstieg der Konsumentennachfrage die Fed zum Erhöhen zwingen könnte.
Die Fed selbst will ihre Entscheidungen nach wie vor von Daten abhängig machen, wobei Inflationsbekämpfung die oberste Priorität hat. Nur bei einem Nachlassen der US-Wirtschaftsstärke (unter 3 %) würde sie die Zinsen eher senken, bei Werten darüber würde sie erhöhen. Die jetzige Prognose von rund 3 % für 2007/2008 entspricht der "sanften Landung".
FTD
Bernanke stimmt Märkte auf Zinswende in den USA ein
US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke hat vor dem Bankenausschuss des US-Senats von ersten Anzeichen für einen abnehmenden Inflationsdruck gesprochen. Seine Warnung vor weiterer Geldentwertung fiel damit deutlich milder aus als erwartet.
Die US-Wirtschaft sieht Bernanke trotz der Abkühlung des Immobilienmarktes weiter auf solidem Wachstumskurs. Die Aktienmärkte reagierten nach der Rede des Zentralbankers am Mittwoch mit Kursgewinnen, da Händler keine Hinweise für eine Zinserhöhung ausmachen konnten. Die Zinsen am Rentenmarkt signalisierten, dass die Finanzmärkte bis zum Jahresende nun fest mit einer Zinssenkung rechnen. Vor Bernankes Rede hatten sie diesem Szenario lediglich eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von gut 70 Prozent beigemessen.
"Es gibt einige Anzeichen dafür, dass der Inflationsdruck nachzulassen beginnt", sagte Bernanke. Noch bestehe allerdings darüber keine Gewissheit, warnte er. "Es wird noch etwas dauern, bis wir uns sicher sein können, dass sich die zu Grunde liegende Inflation wie erwartet abschwächt." Die Preise für Öl und andere Rohstoffe stellten weiter einen großen Unsicherheitsfaktor dar - sowohl für die Inflation wie auch für den Konjunkturausblick.
Bernanke zeigte sich überzeugt, dass die derzeitige Geldpolitik der Fed - mit einem Schlüsselzins von 5,25 Prozent - zu einem nachhaltigen Wachstum und einem Rückgang der Inflation beiträgt. Bernanke bekräftigte gleichzeitig die Bereitschaft der Notenbank, gegebenenfalls mit Zinserhöhungen gegen Inflationsrisiken vorzugehen.
Zu den konjunkturellen Aussichten äußerte sich Bernanke zuversichtlich: "Insgesamt wird die US-Wirtschaft in diesem und im kommenden Jahr wahrscheinlich in einem moderaten Tempo zulegen. Das Wachstum sollte etwas an Fahrt gewinnen, während [sobald! - schlecht übersetzt - A.L.] die Bremswirkung des Immobilienmarktes abnimmt." Die US-Notenbank Fed prognostizierte für dieses Jahr ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,5 bis 3,0 Prozent. Vor einem halben Jahr hatte die Notenbank noch mit einem etwas höheren Anstieg gerechnet. [Das ist eigentlich eine schlechte Nachricht! - A.L.] Im kommenden Jahr erwartet die Fed ein Plus von 2,75 bis 3,0 Prozent.
Die Kurse der europäischen Staatsanleihen profitierten am Mittwoch von den Äußerungen des US-Notenbankchefs Ben Bernanke und legten deutlich zu. Der Bund-Future verzeichnete am Nachmittag ein Plus von 33 Ticks auf 115,09 Punkte. Die zehnjährige Bundesanleihe stieg um 35 Basispunkte auf 97,300 Zähler, die Rendite lag bei 4,1 Prozent. "Ich glaube nicht, dass zukünftig eine Zinssenkung wahrscheinlich ist, aber sicherlich hat die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Zinserhöhungen abgenommen", sagte Firas Askari von BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
Bonds Likely to Falter After Bernanke
By Tony Crescenzi
Street.com Contributor
2/14/2007 11:07 AM EST
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated today in his semiannual monetary policy report before Congress that the Federal Reserve is likely to stay sidelined in the coming months. The bond market took heart in comments that are suggestive of the idea that if the recent moderation in the inflation rate is sustained, the Federal Reserve will embark on a course to lower interest rates.
This assumption is the same one that has existed since last summer when the Federal Reserve ended its interest rate hikes. It is an assumption that has proven wrong and that could yet again be upset by continued signs of resilience in the U.S. economy.
Bernanke's sentiments on the economy and the outlook for monetary policy can be found in the economic projections that he delivered on behalf of the Federal Reserve in his prepared remarks. In particular, by forecasting economic growth of between 2.50% and 3.00%, Bernanke indicated that the Fed believes that the economy will probably grow a touch lower than the economy's growth potential, widely perceived to be about 3.00%.
This is probably where the Fed would prefer to see growth, as it will help to moderate current inflation pressures. With growth any stronger, further interest rate hikes might have to be considered. Weaker growth would require rate cuts. Hence, with growth "in the zone," the outlook is for steady policy.
The Federal Reserve's continued data dependency is evident in Bernanke's citing of "significant risks" to the economic outlook. On the downside, housing-related problems could spill into other areas of the economy. On the upside, continued resilience in consumer spending could boost output more than expected.
In my view, the latter scenario is the one that is the largest near-term threat, mainly because business inventories have been drawn down very sharply of late, which makes it more likely that factory activity will heat up over the next few months. If it does, the bond market's newfound hope for interest rate cuts will probably again be dashed.
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Market Spikes on What the Fed Doesn't Say
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
2/14/2007 1:13 PM EST
The most interesting thing about the action today is that there really wasn't any new news to cause the spike. Nothing much has changed from the last policy statement in which the Fed stated that economic growth was firmer and that inflationary pressures are likely to moderate.
What did happen was that the folks looking for some slightly hawkish comments didn't get them. The underinvested bulls were forced to buy, and the anticipatory shorts were forced to cover, and that is why we are up so sharply.
The question now is, do we build on it further? We have already had a big move in the Dow and S&P 500, so we are somewhat overbought, but the bears are too battered to do anything at this point. The issue is whether the bulls have the juice to keep on coming.
I'm just not sure. I am seeing a lot of churning in my small-cap buys. There are some good setups, but I'm not seeing much follow-through in them once I'm in. They are fizzling out too quickly. Most of the strength seems to be in bounce plays rather than breakouts from bases.
While there is no reason to be bearish here, I'm not sure it's the place to do a lot of aggressive buying either. Maybe I'm just in the wrong stocks, but catching momentum is not easy even though the indices are up big.
The Dumb Money Gets Dumber
The Rude Awakening
Tuesday, February 13, 2006
The Dumb Money Gets Dumber
By Eric J. Fry
"The warning signs of a stock-market correction have been looming overhead like a flock of seagulls over a freshly washed sports car," observes our colleague Jeff Clark, the insightful editor of the Short Report. "Yet investors continue to drive with the top down."
One of the "warning signs" that troubles Jeff is the slumping share price of Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER). As Jeff observed in the January 12th edition of the Rude Awakening, "This stock is one of the best leading stock market indicators I've ever seen. If the price action of MER is bearish, you can almost always bet the overall market is due for a fall. I even had a saying around my brokerage
office, 'As Merrill goes, so goes the stock market.' Right now," Jeff continued, "the chart of Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) looks bearish."
MER has slumped nearly 6% since January 12th, which is one reason why Jeff suspects the S&P 500 might also begin slipping from its recent all-time highs.
"Last May," Jeff remarked this morning, "MER peaked on the day the company announced record earnings. It then dipped below its 50-day moving average and ultimately lost 20%. The S&P 500 followed shares of MER lower and gave up 8%. Last month, MER peaked on the day the company announced record earnings. Last Friday, it dipped below its 50-day moving average. Does anyone care to guess what should come next?"
The latest report from the CFTC's Commitment of Traders Report provides additional evidence that the stock market might soon retreat from its highs. The "smart money" Commercial traders have been increasing their net-short position in S&P 500 futures contracts for several weeks.
The Commercials, often called the "smart money," have amassed their largest net-short position since just before the stock market selloff of last May and June. Not surprisingly, the small speculators – a.ka., the "dumb money" - are taking the other side of this trade. This usually-wrong crowd has amassed its largest net-long position in several months.
The smart money isn't always smart, of course…and the dumb money isn't always dumb. But when the dumb-money begins to exhibit extreme confidence and complacency, the smart money usually begins to look quite smart indeed.
http://www.agorafinancial.com/RudeAwakening/RAissues/2007/JanFeb/RA021307.html
Angehängte Grafik:
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So RICHTIG bärisch ist der Merrill Lynch Chart (siehe unten) aber noch nicht. Die Aktie durchbrach zwar gestern die 50-Tage-Linie nach unten, fängt sich heute aber wieder.
Berücksichtig man allerdings, dass der heutige Index-Anstieg auf einer falschen Interpretation von Bernanke beruht (# 3461), wozu auch Charttechnik beitrug (# 3463), und daher womöglich nicht nachhaltig ist, könnte der Chart von ML demnächst auf weiter fallen. Google hat das ja schon vorgemacht.
Angehängte Grafik:
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Bernanke rechnete in seiner Rede ja ebenfalls damit, dass der Housing-Markt noch einige Quartale lang drücken wird. Ich glaube, er war deshalb so "dovish" heute, damit Aktien einen Schub bekommen - auf diese Weise fühlen sich die Amis wenigsten in ihrem Depot reich.
Bernanke versucht mit wohlfeilen Worten das Li La Laune Feuerwerk am Fackeln zu halten.
Ich bin doch sehr gespannt was passiert, wenn
A. die erste größere Hypobank in Schieflage gerät und SOS funkt
B. der Konsum völlig einbricht
und Bernanke nichts einfällt außer dem Satz "ist wohl dumm gelaufen".
Ps. die schlechten Nachrichten werden eh ausgeblendet.
US-BIP-Prognose gesenkt
Parallel zur Anhörung von Fed-Präsident Ben Bernanke vor dem Bankenausschuss des US-Senats hat die US-Notenbank ihre Prognose für das Wirtschaftswachstum im laufenden Jahr leicht gesenkt. Für 2007 kalkuliert sie nun mit einem Anstieg des US-Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) zwischen 2,5% und 3,0%. Im Juli 2006 hatte die Fed noch ein Wachstum zwischen 3,0% und 3,25% in 2007 prognostiziert. (vz/FXdirekt)
Die Rallye kam aus Erleichterung, dass Big Ben nicht so zinsbullisch war wie erwartet. Dafür hatte er aber gute Gründe, denn er nannte auch obige gesenkte BIP-Erwartung.
Wenn das so weitergeht, haben wir irgendwann 0 % Wachstum und 0 % Zinsen - wie jahrelang in Japan.
.... auf diese Weise fühlen sich die Amis wenigsten in ihrem Depot reich.
.... und haben deshalb auch weiterhin die Möglichkeit, ihren Kreditrahmen zu erweitern.
In the Empire of Debt we trust.
In einem satirischen Beitrag des "Business Maven", den ich vor zwei Wochen gepostet hatte, wurde ja bereits befürchtet, dass das "starke Wachstum" der USA im letzten Quartal (es wurde Anfang Feb mit 3,5 % angekündigt) zu Unrecht für bare Münze genommen wird, da mit schöner Regelmäßigkeit starke Revisionen kommen. Die Presse und Newsschreiber nahmen die frisch publizierten BIP-Zahlen - passend zur gegenwärtigen Euphorie - dennoch als "Fakt". Auch die US-Börsen belohnten die "unerwartet hohe Zahl" mit deutlichen Kursanstiegen.
Doch nun kommt sie tatsächlich, die vom "Business Maven" befürchtete Revision des Wachstums im 4. Quartal - und es ist eine starke ABWÄRTS-Revision: 2,2 % statt 3,4 %. Ursprünglich war sogar von 3,5 % die Rede - wobei ich schon bei der Publikation dieser ersten "Guesstimates" vor zwei Wochen darauf hingewiesen hatte, dass 0,7 % davon auf das Konto gestiegener Staatsaufträge (vor allem im Rüstungssektor) zurückging: http://www.ariva.de/board/245194?pnr=3063620#jump3063620
Zieht man von dem revidierten Wachstum von 2,2 % nun die 0,7 % an gestiegenen Staatsausgaben (überwiegend Rüstung) ab, bleiben klägliche 1,5 % Realwachstum. Das ist die Hälfte des ursprünglich erwarteten Werts von 3 %. Die Presse überschlug sich vor zwei Wochen noch, dass die Erwartungen um 0,5 % überboten wurden!
Hinzu kommt, dass sich die Schwäche nach vorläufigen Zahlen (Einzelhandelsumwachs, Housing-Markt-Probleme) im 1. Quartal fortzusetzen scheint.
Offiziell soll diese Abwärtsrevision erst am 28. Februar von der Regierung bekanntgegeben werden.
CAPITOL REPORT
Big downward revision to GDP coming
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:33 PM ET Feb 14, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy was growing much slower in the fourth quarter of 2006 than the government's first estimate of 3.4%, economists say.
Instead of fairly robust 3.4% annualized growth, the government's next estimate will probably be closer to 2.2%, according to median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Instead of bouncing back, the economy would have turned in its third quarter in a row of below-trend growth.
The first quarter also looks fairly tepid, with weak retail sales, falling homebuilding and growing signs that business investment isn't picking up the slack.
Revisions to the data are common. On the first pass, the government must simply guess at some of the numbers in the report, such as trade, construction spending and inventory building for the final month of the quarter. The average revision is 0.5 percentage points. But this time, the revision will be at least twice the average. And it would be the largest downward revision in 15 years.
The Commerce Department will give us its second estimate of gross domestic product on Feb. 28. Some economists say the downward revision isn't such horrible news. The main source of the revision was in inventories, which declined much more than initially thought.
Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported U.S. businesses worked down their inventories in December after a sharp buildup in previous months. It was the slowest growth in inventories since July 2005. The faster inventories contract so they are in line with demand, the faster production will resume in the nation's factories, the theory goes. That means growth should be stronger in coming quarters.
The other source of the downward revision comes from the trade gap. And although the trade gap is larger than suspected, it's up largely because U.S. consumers demanded more imports. That signals that the economy is fundamentally sound, the argument goes.
Still, one can't help but think that the economy has really and truly slowed, just as the Federal Reserve intended. Maybe it's a Goldilocks economy, neither too hot nor too cold. Or maybe it's the fabled soft landing, with growth slowing just enough to ease the inflationary pressures without leading to a hard landing, otherwise known as a recession.
Or maybe the economy is at its stall speed, just one shock away from a bumpy landing. The bulls scoff at the dire predictions: Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, but these guys haven't been right in four years. The bears counter that the Fed rarely achieves a soft landing; it almost always goes too far and pushes the economy over the cliff.
On the plus side: Employment continues to grow and real wages are actually rising.
[Stimmt nicht: Vor einem Jahr war die Zahl der neu geschaffenen stellen im Schnitt noch über 200.000, jetzt eher um 120.000 - A.L.]
... Profits are also up and corporate balance sheets are in excellent shape. On the minus side: Consumers are strapped. They're in debt to their eyeballs and their homes are losing value every month. The refinance ATM has closed. The factory sector is weakening.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
Dass die Erwartungen der Statistiker, die sich Analysten nennen, nicht getroffen wurden ist absolut normal. Bei jeder noch so geringen Trendänderung liegen sie daneben und müssen monatelang nachkorrigieren bis sie wieder einigermaßen synchron mit der Realität liegen. Auch daran sieht man, dass die einfache Verlängerung aktueller Tendenzen in die Zukunft unbrauchbar ist. Da verhalten sich sogar die Chartanhänger komplexer.
Natürlich ist der Immobilienmarkt noch nicht gesundet. Dazu müssen die Preise noch weiter runter. Daran werden auch die betroffenen Kreditanstalten noch länger zu knabbern haben. Einige wird es auch in den Abgrund reißen. Diese Situation allerdings mit der japanischen zu vergleichen entbehrt jedweder akzeptableren Gewichtung.
Es gibt auch viele Hinweise an einer weiteren Reduktion der Rohölpreise nach dem Winter. Mancher Optimist glaubt an 30$. Das halte ich für stark übertrieben. Allerdings wird die us-amerikanische Administration alles mögliche unternehmen den Rohölpreis zu dämpfen. Dies bringt Russland dann wieder auf Linie und den Iran unter Druck. Schon die jetzigen Preise wirken dämpfend auf die Inflation. Ein weiterer nachhaltiger Verfall auf 50$ würde zu einer starken Dämpfung führen. Trotzdem erwarte ich keine Zinsveränderung im ersten Quartal durch die FED. Sie wird abwarten wie sich die Inflation und Konjunktur konkret entwickelt und dann handeln. Wahrscheinlich Mitte des Jahres. Sollte die Inflation wirklich weiter sinken, wird es zu einer Senkung kommen. Sollte der Rohölpreis steigen, wird der Zins unverändert bleiben. Wegen der demografischen Entwicklung in den industrialisierten Staaten werden wir die nächsten Jahrzehnte eher mit unterdurchschnittlichen Zinsen leben müssen.