Pfizer - zu Unrecht im Keller
Ich bin da flexibler: Wenn sich Erwartungen als unzutreffend erweisen, ist es angezeigt, die Einschätzung zu überdenken und gegebenenfalls (vorübergehend) auszusteigen. Pfizers angebliche Massen-Entlassungen (es kursierten Zahlen bis zu 30 % der "sales force"), die auf der heutigen Analystenkonferenz verkündet werden sollen, dürften sich als Sturm im Wasserglas entpuppen (siehe Artikel in der heutigen NY Times, unten). Da sie teils eingepreist sind, könnte es zu einem Enttäuschungs-Sell-off kommen. Ich würde mich freuen, zu Kursen um 24 Dollar wieder einsteigen zu können - vielleicht kommt die Gelegenheit schon heute (Schlusskurs gestern: 25,93 USD).
NEW YORK TIMES
April 5, 2005
Analysts Say Cost-Cutting by Pfizer Will Be Narrow
By ALEX BERENSON
With its sales flat and its profits under pressure, Pfizer will announce plans to trim its spending at a meeting today with investors, drug industry analysts say.
But investors and analysts have given up their earlier hopes that Pfizer, the world's largest drug company, will announce broad cuts in its sales force or research spending, even though some of its biggest-selling drugs will soon face competition from low-priced generics. As a result, the meeting has generated little enthusiasm from investors, and Pfizer's shares closed yesterday near a five-year low.
Shares of Pfizer, which is based in New York, fell 22 cents yesterday, or 0.8 percent, to $25.93. They have dropped 28 percent in the last year.
Pfizer, which had $53 billion in sales and $16 billion in profits last year, is likely to announce annual spending cuts of $2 billion to $4 billion, several analysts said. The company might trim its worldwide sales force of 38,000 representatives who visit doctors to promote its medicines, and slightly cut spending on research and development, which totaled $7.6 billion last year.
The spending cuts might help stabilize Pfizer's earnings, said Tony Butler, an analyst with Lehman Brothers. Still, the company has too few new drugs to make up for the $14 billion in sales it will lose over the next three years as some of its biggest-selling medicines lose patent protection, he said.
In addition, Lipitor, a cholesterol-lowering medicine that is the biggest-selling drug in the world and is estimated to produce as much as 60 percent of Pfizer's profit, will face competition next year from a generic version of Zocor, another cholesterol-lowering drug. "The fundamentals are still not changing," Mr. Butler said. "The organic growth is just not there."
Investors might also be disappointed because Pfizer will probably be vague about its exact cost-cutting plans, Mr. Butler said. "Pfizer's going to give you some cost savings," Mr. Butler said. "How they are going to arrive at those cost savings is going to be a bit amorphous."
Pfizer appears to have decided that if it cuts too many sales representatives, it will open itself to counterattacks from competitors trying to grab market share from Lipitor, said Richard Evans, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company. "You're trapped with some real operating constraints," Mr. Evans said. "What you try to do is spend less and achieve the same result."
Robert C. Hazlett, an analyst for SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, said that besides the cost cuts, he expected Pfizer to discuss promising cancer drugs, especially an experimental cancer drug called SU-11248. In February, Pfizer said the drug had been so effective in tests on stomach cancer patients that scientists had ended the trials early so that patients receiving a placebo could be given the medicine.
Pfizer might announce that it plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration for a rapid review of the drug, Mr. Hazlett said. As it loses sales to generic competitors, Pfizer must show that it can find new drugs like SU-11248, he said. A spokesman for Pfizer declined to comment.
By Robert Steyer
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
4/5/2005 9:32 AM EDT
Pfizer (PFE:NYSE) Tuesday offered lower 2005 guidance, calling it "a transition year".
Pfizer said it expects to earn $2.00 a share, excluding items, on revenue of $14.9 billion for the full year, down from $2.12 a year ago. On a GAAP basis, the drug giant expects net income of about $8.6 billion and EPS of about $1.16.
Analysts expect earnings per share of $2.13 and revenue of $51.81 billion for the year, according to the consensus among analysts polled by Thomson First Call.
For the first quarter, Pfizer forecast adjusted EPS of about 53 cents a share -- or 13 cents a share on a GAAP basis. The first consensus is EPS of 52 cents and revenue of $12.44 billion, although Pfizer won't issue first-quarter results for another three weeks or so.
The company expects double-digit earnings growth starting in 2006.
Shares were up 57 cents to $26.50 in the premarket.
"Cost of goods sold will be substantially negatively impacted by changes in geographic and product mix, loss of exclusivity of major products in the U.S., and lower year-over-year sales of the Cox-2 franchise," the company said.
The big question is how the controversial Cox-2 drugs Bextra and Celebrex will fare once the Food and Drug Administration acts on recommendations made by two advisory committees in mid-February to place restrictions on all arthritis drugs known as Cox-2 inhibitors. Bextra and Celebrex belong to this class, as does Vioxx, which Merck (MRK:NYSE) withdrew from the market on Sept. 30 due to tests showing a higher risk of cardiovascular problems. The advisory committees, by a narrow vote, said the benefits outweighed the risks for Vioxx and Bextra. The committees gave Celebrex overwhelming support.
There's also some troubling uncertainty on the horizon: Pfizer has the highest risk among Big Pharma companies for losing revenue to generic drugs during the next few years. A recent report by Moody's Investors Service says 33% of the company's 2003 revenue will be subject to generic attack by the end of 2007.
PFE + 3,24% - und anscheinend muss ich auch meine langjährige Meinung über das $-€-KZ von 1,40 überdenken. Obwohl ich noch zu 90% sicher bin, dass wir in den nächsten 1,5 Jahren die 1,40 sehen.
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Wertpapier: Pfizer Inc. |
tung der Vergangenheit. Was für die Zukunft verheißen wird, sieht recht
interessant aus:
- zweistelliges Wachstum in 2005
- Einsparungen von 4 statt 2 Mrd. USD p.a.
- und: Vorziehen der Aktienrückkäufe i.W.v. 2,3 Mrd.USD
Alles Gründe, die die Aktie nun zum Laufen bringen können. Mein Rat an
Anti & Co.: wenn einsteigen, dann sofort. Teuer ist die Aktie ja nicht.
Das Warten auf Billigkurse könnte zur ewigen Veranstaltung werden...
-------------------------------------------
NEW YORK TIMES
April 6, 2005
Pfizer Plans 12% Cost Cut as Sales Lag
By ALEX BERENSON
Pfizer promised yesterday to cut annual costs by $4 billion, or 12 percent, by 2008 to keep profits rising even as several of its biggest-selling drugs lose patent protection.
Pfizer, the world's largest drug maker, said at a meeting with analysts and investors that its profits would fall and sales would stagnate in 2005. But the company promised strong profit growth in 2006 and 2007, saying adjusted earnings per share - a nonstandard accounting measure that Pfizer favors - would rise more than 10 percent in both years.
[KOMMENTAR: Mir ist nicht ganz klar, wo das prognostizierte Wachstum in den Jahren 2006 und 2007 herkommen soll, wenn, wie befürchtet (siehe Posting 272) bis dahin bis zu 59 % des Verkaufsvolumens (die NYT nennt unten 30 %) an Pfizer-Medikamenten generische Konkurrenz bekommen könnte. Würde der Gewinn auch nur um die Hälfte dessen einbrechen, also 30 % bzw. 15 %, könnte dies mit den in diesem Artikel angekündigten Kosteneinsparungen von 12 % NICHT aufgefangen werden. Das geht dann nur mit Bilanzierungstricks - den im Text genannten "nonstandard accounting measures". Ich würde lieber reale Gewinne sehen.]
Investors reacted positively to Pfizer's optimistic long-term profit forecast and the promised cost cuts, which were larger than some analysts had predicted. Shares of Pfizer rose 3.7 percent, or 97 cents, to $26.90, leading a rally among drug makers.
Pfizer is among the world's biggest and richest companies, with $52.52 billion in sales and $16 billion in profits last year, excluding certain one-time charges. Pfizer's stock has skidded since 2000, as investors sour on its prospects. Even at yesterday's close, the stock is down 26 percent in the last year.
By 2007, Pfizer will face low-priced generic competition for a half-dozen drugs that now account for almost 30 percent of its sales and billions of dollars in profits. Meanwhile, several drugs recently introduced by the company have sold poorly, and sales of Celebrex and Bextra, its arthritis drugs, have plunged since last fall after studies linked the drugs to heart problems.
Pfizer offered an upbeat picture of its future yesterday, promising that new drugs and cost savings would replace the profits Pfizer will lose to generic competition. The company also said it was optimistic that sales of Celebrex and Bextra would begin to revive later this year and in 2006, as it works to convince doctors and patients that the benefits of the drugs outweigh their risks.
Still, many analysts said they remained skeptical about the company's long-term prospects, especially because Pfizer's executives were notably reticent to discuss details of their cost-cutting plans, promising only that they would keep the company's team of 38,000 sales representatives mostly intact. Pfizer also said it would increase its research spending about 5 percent this year, to $8 billion.
Both in the meeting and in a news conference with reporters, Pfizer executives, including Henry A. McKinnell Jr., the chief executive, repeatedly declined to answer questions about how many employees the company plans to shed or even how many employees it will have when its revamping is complete. Pfizer has about 115,000 employees, compared with about 120,000 at the end of 2004.
Discussing the $4 billion cost-cutting projection in a note to investors, David R. Risinger, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, wrote that "at this point it appears to be somewhat of a 'phantom' number." Mr. Risinger also dismissed Pfizer's optimism about Celebrex and Bextra.
Also unimpressed was Richard T. Evans, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company. "The cost-containment efforts are entirely rational and as expected," he said. "The arguments for a return to growth are unconvincing."
For 2005, Pfizer predicted it would have adjusted operating profits of $15 billion, or $2 a share, down from $16 billion, or $2.13 a share, in 2004. The consensus forecast for the company's 2005 earnings had been $2.13 a share, according to the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System, which tracks analysts' estimates. Several respected analysts on Wall Street had already reduced their 2005 estimates to $2 or lower, so the company's prediction yesterday did not surprise big investors.
Pfizer's definition of adjusted operating profits excludes large noncash charges related to Pfizer's takeover of Pharmacia in 2002, as well as other significant charges that Pfizer classifies as one-time events. Using standard accounting principles, Pfizer expects to earn $1.16 a share in 2005, down from $1.49 a share last year.
For 2006 and 2007, the company said sales would rise slightly and its adjusted earnings per share would grow at double-digit rates. But because Pfizer plans large stock buybacks, fewer shares will be outstanding in later years, which would allow its earnings per share to rise faster than its bottom-line profits. Thus, it could meet its target even if profits grew less than 10 percent.
Das heißt doch im Klartext, dass Pfizer einen Teil der Kosten (Non-Cash-Charges) für die Übernahme von Pharmacia aus dem Jahr 2002 (die Celebrex und Bextra ins Pfizer-Portfolio brachte) als Einmal-Effekte nicht in die Bilanz einbeziehen will, während die Gewinne aus den Verkäufen von Celebrex und Bextra sehr wohl in die Bilanz einfließen.
Wenn das nicht UNSAUBER ist...
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Wertpapier: Pfizer Inc. |
Einen hohen Cash Flow hat übrigens auch General Motors hat (26 Dollar CF bei 29 Dollar Aktienkurs!). Doch der Gewinn ist jetzt trotz annähernd gleichbleibendem CF um 80 % gefallen! Die GM-Bond wurden gestern auf knapp über Junk runtergestuft.
neue Medikamente in Verbindung mit den 12 % Kosteneinsparungen aus,
um die Verluste aus Patentabläufen (30 bis 60 % des Umsatzes) bis 2007
zu kompensieren? Nur wenn dies der Fall ist, kann der Gewinn steigen""
Ein paar Beiträge weiter oben haben wir uns noch darüber gestritten, ob
PF die für einen weiteren Anstieg erforderlichen Gewinne generieren kann.
Da warst Du Protagonist. Nun scheinst Du ins Lager der Antagonisten ge-
wechselt zu sein.
Fürwahr: ein Ausstieg mit Haut und Haaren...
Wieso bin ich dann plötzlich "ins Lager der Antagonisten gewechselt"? Eine offene Frage beschreibt etwas, das eintreten kann oder nicht, sie ist per se nicht negativ. Es gibt jede Menge Unwägbarkeiten, z. B. welche der neuen Medikamente die FDA-Zulassungshürde nehmen werden und welche nicht, ob Pfizer das Lipitor-Patent in USA gegen Ranbaxy verteidigen kann, nachdem sie in Österreich damit eine Niederlage erlitten haben. Unklar ist weiterhin, womit Pfizer die 4 Mrd. einsparen will - auf der Analystenkonferenz wurde trotz Drängen nicht beantwortet, wie das geschehen soll; die geplanten Entlassungen reichen dafür nämlich nicht aus.
Tatsache hingegen ist, dass Pfizer den Ausblick für 2005 gesenkt hat. Im Grunde wurde
gestern auf der Konferenz eine DEUTLICHE GEWINNWARNUNG gegeben, die allerdings mit einem positiven Ausblick für 2006/7 verzuckert wurde. Nun ist die Börse zwar bekanntlich vorwegnehmend - und der PFE-Kurs steigt ja auch. Das kann aber auch an Short-Eindeckungen liegen. Immerhin wurde Pfizer vom US-Dienst "Short Adviser" als Short empfohlen. Die Shorts ärgern sich jetzt sicher, dass der PFE-Kurs trotz Gewinnwarnung anzieht. Solch ein Short-Cover-Spike ist für mich allerdings kein Grund, zu Höchstkursen
einzusteigen.
Das überlass ich den Chart-Technikern (wie Dir), die hier einen Ausbruch wähnen.
Wenn die prophezeiten Gewinne für 2006/7 nur durch Bilanztricks zustande kommen (NYT), gestatte ich mir, SKEPTISCH (nicht: ablehnend) zu bleiben. Wer zwingt mich denn, jetzt PFE zu kaufen? Soll ich kaufen, nur weil ich hier was gepostet hab - aus Rechthaberei?
Bei Autos wie bei Pharma haben wir zurzeit (mit wenigen Ausnahmen) jeweils die gesamte Branche betreffende Krisen.
--------------------
FTD
6.4.05
DaimlerChrysler erwartet ab 2006 steigende Gewinne
DaimlerChrysler hat im März seinen Absatz in der Mercedes Car Group stabil gehalten und damit offenbar die Trendwende eingeläutet. Für das Jahr 2006 peilt Konzernchef Jürgen Schrempp deutlich steigende Gewinne an, dieses Jahr steht unter dem schlechten Stern von Smart.
2006 würden sich das Kostensenkungsprogramm Core und die Modelloffensive im Autokonzern auszuwirken beginnen, sagte Schrempp am Mittwoch auf der Hauptversammlung in Berlin vor Aktionären. 2005 werde es ohne die Sanierungskosten für die Kleinwagenmarke Smart einen leicht höheren operativen Gewinn als im Vorjahr geben. 2004 lag der operative Gewinn bei 5,8 Mrd. Euro. Die Kosten für das Smart-Restrukturierungsprogramm bezifferte Schrempp auf bis zu 1,2 Mrd. Euro. Der Gewinn 2005 werde daher vermutlich geringer als im Jahr 2004 ausfallen.
weißt (und auch selber zuweilen sagst), soll man kaufen, wenn die Ka-
nonen donnern - oder die Kacke dampft. Und das tut sie bei DC - reichlich.
Ich gehe davon aus, daß langsam von Hölle bis Pest alles eingepreist ist.
Das zeigt auch der Kursverlauf, der auf neue apokalyptische Meldungen
nur noch aphatisch bis gar nicht reagiert.
Der Markt hat es eben an sich, gleich mehrere Ecken weiter zu schauen.
Zeigt sich da nur ein Fitzel eine Hoffnungsschimmers -und sei es nur,
daß Schrempp's Hausmeister den Frisör gewechselt hat- kann sich das
Geschehen sofort drehen (Reim unbeabsichtigt).
""Das überlass ich den Chart-Technikern (wie Dir), die hier einen Ausbruch
wähnen.""
Hm...Ich das Nilpferd - Du das Krokodil?
Pfizer shares gain pre-market on Morgan Stanley upgrade (PFE)
By Mark Cotton
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Pfizer Inc. (PFE) were up 0.9 percent at $27.14 in pre-market trading on Instinet after Morgan Stanley upgraded the pharmaceutical giant to overweight from equal weight. Analyst Jami Rubin said the revised rating reflects a substantially improved earnings outlook for 2006 and beyond. The analyst said the company's $4 billion cost-cutting plan, which exceeded the brokerage's own best-case scenario, removes the risk of margin deterioration. Rubin lifted his 2006 earnings estimate by 4 cents to $2.20 a share and his 2007 estimate by 31 cents to $2.43 a share. He hold a $32 price target on the stock.
Fuzzi: DCX kauft man besser bei 28 Euro - wenn Rover pleite und die GM-Bonds auf "Junk" sind. Aber Du hast im Prinzip Recht: Es ist schon mal deutlich besser, DCX heute für 34 Euro zu kaufen als 1999 für 95 Euro.
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Wertpapier: Pfizer Inc. |
April 4, 2005
BOSTON (AFX) - One day after the company issued its long-awaited financial
outlook for 2005 and beyond, analysts covering Pfizer were mixed as to whether
the company was going far enough in cutting costs.
Pfizer Inc. said Tuesday its 2005 earnings will be markedly lower than in
2004, but "double-digit" profit growth should resume in 2006. The company
issued the forecast during its annual analyst meeting on Tuesday.
In what the company repeatedly called a "transitional year," Pfizer executives
told listeners Tuesday that it expects adjusted earnings of about $2 a share for
2005, compared with the $2.12 a share it earned for 2004. Net income, excluding
extraordinary items, should amount to $1.16 a share this year, the
pharmaceutical giant said.
Analysts had estimated, on average, Pfizer would post 2005 adjusted earnings of
$2.13. The estimates ranged from $1.99 to $2.35.
Pfizer also outlined its previously announced restructuring plan, which it told
analysts should save the company $4 billion a year by 2008, or about 12 percent
of the company's cost base. The plan will cost between $5 billion and $6 billion
to implement through 2008.
"We urge caution to investors," said Caris & Company analyst Le Anne Zhao in her
note on Wednesday. "In truth, PFE faces 'very hard times' in 2005-2007 that can
require substantially more than the current target of $4 billion in total
annualized cost savings by 2008, which were not specifically detailed at
yesterday's meeting."
Pfizer chairman Hank McKinnell had told analysts Tuesday that the proposed cuts
"will have a modest impact this year. We've completed the planning phase and are
moving onto implementation." He added that the savings "will really kick in in
2006."
But Pfizer was also vague about where it specifically plans to cut, stating
simply that the savings would be seen by reductions in procurement spending and
duplication of operations.
The company already had announced it planned to save about $4.2 billion in 2005
from "cost synergies" related to its merger with Pharmacia.
When asked by analysts if Pfizer planned to lay off significant numbers of its
38,000 sales force, Pfizer management said it expects a "modest reduction." The
company noted that while it has between two and five sales representatives
pitching one drug per doctor, it plans to lower that ratio.
"Interestingly, on the heavily anticipated topic of potential sales force
reduction, PFE would not quantify by how much the sales rep base might shrink,"
wrote Prudential analyst Timothy Anderson in his note.
"PFE also said that its competition (i.e. other drug companies) would probably
be disappointed that PFE is not cutting its sales force to a larger degree. If
competitors are disappointed, then so too should be the investment community,"
Anderson added.
Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, was more concerned with Pfizer's future projections.
Pfizer has attributed the anticipated dip in 2005 earnings to the loss of patent
exclusivity on several key products and a slowdown in sales of its popular Cox-2
pain reliever Celebrex, events that most analysts have already anticipated.
But in 2006, the world's largest drug maker said it expects both earnings and
sales growth to make a recovery as new products begin to add to the company's
revenue. The company added it also sees "accelerated" growth for 2007.
"Management's expectations for revenue growth in 2006-2007, predicted on a
recovery in the coxib [Cox-2 drug] market and strong new product sales, seem
overly aggressive," said analyst Jami Rubin, who raised her rating of the stock
to overweight.
Yet Rubin added she was pleased with the proposed cost-cutting plan.
"We were pleasantly surprised by the magnitude of the cost saving plan that
management earmarked through 2008," said Rubin. "Investors were pleased to hear
management own up to the challenging environment and exploit its mighty
financial strength."
Analysts at UBS echoed those sentiments.
"Though lacking specificity, we view targets as highly achievable, management
has a strong record in meeting/exceeding such targets, and the EPS leverage is
significant," wrote Carl Seiden of UBS on Wednesday.
Pfizer had delayed issuing its 2005 financial outlook, in part, until it
received word on whether the Food and Drug Administration would allow its Cox-2
pain relievers Celebrex and Bextra to remain on the market. Both had been
suspected of causing cardiac problems in certain patients, and rival Merck
withdrew a similar Cox-2 drug, Vioxx, from the market last year. In February, an
FDA advisory panel recommended keeping the Pfizer drugs on the market.
Pfizer said that it expects 2005 sales to be even with 2004 sales of about $53
billion.
Over the next two years, Pfizer will see mushrooming generic competition as
patents expire on several of its lucrative drugs, including Norvasc and Zoloft.
Norvasc, Pfizer's second largest drug, had 2004 sales of $4.8 billion, while its
third best-seller, Zoloft, took in about $3.4 billion.
Meanwhile, Pfizer's No. 1 selling drug, Lipitor, is set to lose its market
exclusivity in 2010. Lipitor had sales of almost $11 billion in 2004. The
company is suing Indian drug maker Ranbaxy both in the U.S. and abroad for
trying to put out a generic version of Lipitor. The Austrian Patent Office ruled
in Ranxbaxy's favor last week, a decision that Pfizer says it plans to appeal.
A U.S. decision on the Lipitor case is still pending. Management said Tuesday
that Pfizer still expects to prevail in the matter. A decision is expected by
early 2006.
Pfizer shares were down 0.4% at $27.00 on Wednesday.
This story was supplied by MarketWatch.
http://www.zeit.de/2005/15/Pfizer
Seit Du die Aktie geflüchtet hast, sammelst Du Kritisches und Vernichtendes
über Deinen ehemaligen Günstling.
Darf man schüchtern fragen, ob Du das alles (was Du contra PF ins Gefecht
führst) früher nicht gewußt hast? - Falls nein, was sagst Du zu dem Vorwurf
-nein besser: Einwurf-: wie konntest Du Deine Euphorie auf so wackligen Fak-
ten gründen?
Ursache könnte sein, dass die FDA von Pfizer heute verlangt hat, auf Celebrex-Schachteln einen Hinweis auf Herzinfarktsgefahren zu drucken. Vielleicht gibt es aber auch noch andere Gründe wie Downgrades.
Fuzzi: Das Wackelige an Pfizer sind vor allem die nervenschwachen Investoren. Wenn die Etikettierung jetzt der Grund für den Einbruch sein sollte, kann man nur mit dem Kopf schütteln.
Zu meiner Neueinschätzung bzw. wechselnden Einschätzung:
1. Bereits im Eröffnungsposting hab ich auf das Verhältnis von Risiko zu Chance, das PFE bietet, hingewiesen.
2. Man muss alle Investment-Entscheidungen ständig neu kritisch hinterfragen. Wenn sich Erwartungen, die man hatte, nicht erfüllen, muss man schnell reagieren - bevor es andere (Short-Seller) für einen tun.
3. Ich war schon mal negativ auf PFE gestimmt, das hängt auch vom Preis ab. Wie ich oben in den Postings geschrieben hab, war ich im Dezember mit Put-Optionen SHORT Pfizer (EK/VK gepostet). Einen Tag später (Glück gehabt) brach Pfizer von 29 auf im Tief 22 Dollar ein. Am Tag des Einbruchs hab ich die Puts verkauft und bin gleich wieder long gegangen, weil er mir übertrieben schien.
4. Wenn Pfizer jetzt wirklich nur wegen der Etikettierung nachgibt, könnte das eine Kaufgelegenheit sein!