Headwaters - Bluechip in Energie- und Nanotechnik
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| Eröffnet am: | 06.11.05 18:25 | von: Anti Lemmin. | Anzahl Beiträge: | 57 |
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Die interessante News findet sich am Ende dieses Postings (rot): Headwaters hat einen Nano-Katalysator für den Ölsand-Abbau und für die Veredelung minderwertigen Öls entwickelt, der zurzeit in Raffinerien getestet wird - und noch 2005 Geld bringen soll.
Zunächst mal eine "Fremdmeinung": (etwas oberflächlich recherchiert)
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BetaFaktor - Headwaters ein Muss
16.09.05
Nach Ansicht der Experten von "BetaFaktor" ist die Aktie von Headwaters (ISIN US42210P1021/ WKN 909698) für jedes Nanotech-, alternative Energien- und Öko-Depot ein Muss.
Headwaters sei ein echter Blue-Chip, der klar wachse, fundamental absolut in Ordnung und sogar auch noch preiswert sei. Headwaters sei eigentlich ein Öko- bzw. Umwelttechnologieunternehmen und deshalb bei "grünen" Investoren und Medien sehr beliebt. Mit Nano-Technologie habe man allerdings viele technologische Durchbrüche geschafft. Da man sich etwas neu aufgestellt habe, habe man sich dementsprechend erst in 2000 in Headwaters umbenannt (die Vorgängergesellschaft sei bereits 1987 gegründet worden).
Das Unternehmen habe sich nun u. a. auf die Herstellung von alternativen Brennstoffen spezialisiert und habe ein Verfahren entwickelt, in dem man Industrieabfälle mittels eines patentierten chemischen Bindeprozesses zu synthetischen Brennstoffbriketts verarbeitet habe. So würden fossile Brennstoffe wie Gas, Kohle und Öl mit nanotechnologischen Anwendungen in alternative Energien konvertiert.
Außerdem habe man mit der Tochter Nanokinetix ein Nano-Ass im Ärmel: Das Unternehmen produziere Nano-Katalysatoren, die inzwischen reißend Absatz finden würden. Im Frühjahr habe Nanokinetix verkündet, dass der Mitarbeiter Dr. Bing Zhou ein neues katalytisches Verfahren entwickelt habe, welches die Rückstände an Schwermetallen bei der Arzneimittelherstellung stärker verringere.
Die Fundamentalbetrachtung für 2006 sei ungewöhnlich günstig. So besitze Headwaters ein KGV von 14 und ein KUV von 1,4. Nach Ansicht der Wertpapierspezialisten stehe der Wert vor der Entdeckung, wobei nicht das Risiko eines Fehlgriffs wie bei den Pennystocks bestehe.
Nach Ansicht der Experten von "BetaFaktor" ist die Headwaters-Aktie ein Muss für jedes Nanotech-, alternative Energien- und Öko-Depot.
Quelle: aktiencheck.de
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Zur Firma (Quelle: www.bigcharts.com -> HW -> profile)
Headwaters, Inc.. The Group's principal activities are to develop and commercialize its chemical technologies, which are used to produce alternative fuel from coal derivatives and to develop and deploy alternative energy technologies. Alternative energy segment includes traditional coal-based solid alternative fuel business. It also develops and commercializes catalysts and catalytic processes for producing chemicals and converting low-value fossil fuels into high-value alternative fuels. CCP segment includes supply of post-combustion services and technologies to the coal-fired electric utility industry. The Construction materials segment produces and sells standard masonry, stucco construction materials and supplies packaged products and blocks as well as value added technology products. The Group acquired VFL Technology Corporation on 09-Apr-2004, Eldorado Stone LLC on 02-Jun-2004, and Tapco Holdings Inc on 08-Sep-2004.
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Und hier meine eigene Meinung: (IMHO besser recherchiert)
Headwaters (HW - NYSE) ist ein Mischkonzern, der u. a. in der Kohleverflüssigung (Umwandlung von Kohle in einen Benzin-Ersatzstoff) arbeitet. Demnächst soll eine größere Anlage in China gebaut werden. Die Firma forscht auch eifrig im Bereich Nanotechnologie und hat nanotechnische Verfahren entwickelt, das Öl aus den riesigen Ölschiefer-Vorkommen in Alaska kostengünstig zu extrahieren (siehe unten, fett). Da der Konzern auch im Abfall-Management tätig ist (Entsorgung von Flugasche aus Kohlefeuerungen), ist es sinnvoll, dass er kürzlich zwei Firmen für die Fertigung von Baumaterialien (Ziegel, Leichtbeton) zugekauft hat - denn dort kann die Asche, für deren Entsorgung Geld kassiert wird, auch noch an Endkunden (in Ziegeln usw.) weiterverkauft werden.
HW hat ein 2005-KGV von 13 (Stand: 4.11.05) und hat während der letzten 5 Jahre jedes Jahr rund 30 % Gewinnwachstum ausgewiesen.
siehe:
http://www.headwaters.com/nir/index.asp
Da wird also - anders als etwa beim Dauer-Geldverbrenner Ballard Power - buchstäblich Kohle verdient. Die Marktkapitalisierung ist mit 1,3 Mrd. Dollar noch recht klein. Ich hab mir gestern eine kleine Position HW zugelegt (EK: 31,60 USD).
Zu potenziellen Problemen zählt, dass Headwaters für die Kohleverflüssigung in USA Staats-Subventionen erhält (Section 29 tax provisions), die offenbar 2007 auslaufen.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ceb/fuel.html
Headwaters neuerliche Diversifizierungs-Strategie dürfte die Folgen aber weitgehend auffangen. Inzwischen generieren Baumaterialen über 50 Prozent des Umsatzes. Einnahmen aus der Kohleverflüssigung machen zurzeit unter 25 % des Umsatzes aus - vor zwei Jahren waren es noch 88 %.
Quelle: http://www.headwaters.com/nir/index.asp (Infos zu Section 29 in der Mitte)
Dieses Problem - das womöglich eine der Ursachen für Kursverluste in den letzten Monaten ist - scheint mir daher überbewertet zu sein, zumal in Anbetracht des Potenzials, den der Nanoableger der Firma - NanoKinetix - hat.
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Hier den fett hervorgehobenen Teil lesen - und beachten, dass der Katalysator für den Ölsandabbau inzwischen bereits entwickelt und getestet ist, was die Motley "Fools" wohl noch nicht mitbekommen haben (siehe News am Ende des Threads)
Motley Fool
Turn Off the TV, Headwaters
By Jack Uldrich
September 28, 2005
My wife and I have two young school-age children, and it is our policy that they are not allowed to watch any television on school nights until their homework is done. In spite of our best intentions, however, they still sometimes sneak into the family room before their work is complete and flick on the old boob tube. Being fairly good kids, though, the potential household crisis is usually averted with a simple admonishment to turn it off.
I was reminded of this maddening TV ritual the other day, when Headwaters (NYSE: HW) announced that it had developed a new chemical process based on nanotechnology that will "enable the production of high-quality, long-life, flat-screen television monitors at a fraction of the cost of today's devices."
I have no reason to doubt the sincerity of the claim -- which came from the company's nanotechnology division, NanoKinetix -- but investors in Headwaters should not be misled into believing that the company, by getting into the flat-panel display business, is either on the verge of embarking on something big or diversifying its business.
Nanotechnology is, in fact, poised to affect the flat-panel display market. In May, Motorola (NYSE: MOT) announced that it had created a new "nano-emissive" flat-panel display. DuPont (NYSE: DD), Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW), and Samsung are also playing in the same area, and even a few small start-ups such as Nano-Proprietary, which Fools Carl Wherrett and John Yelovich discussed a few months back, have a chance to make some serious inroads in the field.
To be fair, NanoKinetix's technology is based on polymeric crystals and, as such, is different from the approach of all of the aforementioned companies, which all seek to apply carbon nanotubes to flat-panel displays. But I am still not confident that Headwaters can advance much beyond the announcement phase with this new development, given the level of expertise and competition in this field.
That's OK, though, because Headwaters' NanoKinetix division is working on some other nanotechnology-related developments in which it is far better suited to play. I am referring to NanoKinetix's exciting work in applying nanocatalyst applications to coal liquefaction and heavy-oil upgrading.
Coal liquefaction has long been a dream of the coal industry, and it's still likely a way off. But Headwaters, which is working with China's largest coal company, Shenhua Group, to build the world's first commercial plant to transform coal into gasoline and diesel fuel, is also working on the development of a new line of nanocatalysts that might facilitate this process. The development of such a technology could revolutionize the energy industry by creating the equivalent of liquid gold.
But even more exciting to me than this possible development is the more realistic scenario that Headwaters could develop nanocatalysts to aid in the conversion of heavy oils into usable materials. If Headwaters can find a way to efficiently turn the heavy crude materials sitting in Canada's massive tar sand reserves (one of the world's largest known oil reserves) into a diesel or lighter material, company profits could be out of this world. This would be true even if the price of oil were to drop from its current range of beyond $60 back to the $30-$40 range.
So, without meaning to sound too much like a parent, I would kindly advise the management at Headwaters to temporarily set aside its work on flat-panel display TVs until it has successfully completed the more pressing homework assignment of turning the heavy oils of Canada into a viable, profitable, and long-term source of energy.
As I tell my kids, there will be plenty of time for television once you're successful.
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ebenfalls interessant:
http://www.thestreet.com/pf/funds/jubak/10215173.html
AM INTERESSANTESTEN:
In einer topaktuellen Nanotechnologie-Studie der "Innovest Group"
http://www.innovestgroup.com/pdfs/2005-10-19_Nanotechnology_Report.pdf
fand ich auf S. 73, dass Headwaters den Nano-Katalysator für den Ölsand-Abbau und für die Veredelung minderwertigen Öls bereits entwickelt hat. Die Ausbeute steigt damit um 10 bis 50 Prozent. Das Produkt wird zurzeit in Raffinerien getestet und soll noch 2005 erste Einnahmen generieren.
... Homogenous Catalyst: The company has developed the (HC)3™ catalyst, a single-molecule nanocatalyst to upgrade heavy oils such as the tar sand bitumen found in Canada and the low-grade crudes imported from South America, Eastern Europe and off-shore sites, into high-quality synthetic crudes, increasing conversion by 10 - 50 %. The product is currently being tested in several major oil refining companies around the world and Headwaters expects to generate revenues for this product this year.
Headwaters has identified more than 25 refineries which could immediately benefit from addition of the (HC)3 Technology, including about 10 which could utilize the
(HC)3 catalyst with only a minimal capital expenditure...
1. Lizenz-Abkommen mit der Öl-Firma Northwest Upgrading Inc. in Alberta, Kanada, die den neuen Nano-Katalysator ("Heavy Oil Hydrocracker") einsetzen will:
http://www.headwaters.com/data/upimages/press/...an%20Heavy%20Oil.pdf
2. Zusammen mit der Degussa AG baut Headwater in Hanau-Wolfgang eine Demonstrationsanlage zur künstlichen Synthese von Wasserstoff-Peroxid (H202).
http://www.headwaters.com/data/upimages/press/Degussa%20PR.pdf
Angehängte Grafik:
hw.gif (verkleinert auf 88%)
hw.gif (verkleinert auf 88%)
Vorsicht der derzeitige Abwärtstrend im 3Monatschart ist noch klar erkennbar
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/...ings=1&rand=379&mocktick=1
aber Cramers von Madmoney sagt:I like HW plenty, two thumbs up
Oct 04, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Headwaters Incorporated announced today that one of its subsidiaries, Headwaters Heavy Oil, LLC ("Headwaters") has entered into a license agreement and initiated the Basic Engineering Design of a heavy oil hydrocracker for the North West Upgrading project in Alberta, Canada. North West Upgrading Inc. has previously announced its intention to construct a heavy oil upgrader in Sturgeon County, Alberta and has included the Headwaters' (HC)3(TM) heavy oil hydrocracking technology as a component of the project's design. The Headwaters' engineering design team participated in a project kick-off meeting in late September in Calgary, where the design basis and key process parameters for the project were established.
North West Upgrading, Inc. announced in May 2005 that it had secured financing for preliminary engineering, regulatory and environmental work associated with the upgrader. The preliminary engineering work requires Headwaters to design the (HC)3(TM) hydrocracker system, which will be integrated with the design of other processing equipment by North West Upgrading's integration engineers, SNC Lavalin Inc.
The (HC)3 technology is a catalytic hydrocracking process that operates in a gas-liquid reactor to convert the heaviest parts of crude oil, called "residuum," to cleaner, lighter components which can then be processed into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. Used in place of conventional hydrocracking catalysts, the molecular-sized (HC)3 liquid catalyst provides efficient catalytic hydrocracking uniformly throughout the reactor.
Headwaters anticipates that the (HC)3 technology application will be demonstrated as an additive in commercial refineries currently using ebullated bed reactor systems. Headwaters' technology adds significant value to these systems because their objective is to convert as much low-value, bottom-of-the-barrel oil as possible into lighter, cleaner distillate fuels. Headwaters estimates that approximately 480,000 barrels per day of heavy oil are currently refined in ebullated bed reactor systems.
The North West Upgrading Hydrocracking unit is expected to come online in 2010. The technology agreement with North West Upgrading is subject to a successful commercial scale application of the (HC)3 technology. Robert Pearce, President of North West Upgrading, Inc., described the company's selection of the (HC)3 technology as "a technology decision that improves the economics of the upgrader and greatly assists North West in providing a fee-for-service business model to the growing oilsands industry.
Mich interessiert vor allem, ob Headwaters das hohe Wachstum beibehalten kann, wenn die Diversifikation in Baumaterialien so weiter geht wie bisher. In früheren Jahren waren die Kohleverflüssigung und Chemie/Abfallwirtschaft die Wachstumstreiber. Diese Geschäftszweige machen zurzeit nur noch 50 % des Umsatzes aus. Ich glaube, dass die anderen 50 % aus dem Baumaterial-Segment ein nicht so hohes Wachstum aufweisen, weil das eine normale Retail-/Low-Tech-Branche ist. Dies könnte mit dem Kursrückgang der letzten drei Monate (von 42 auf 32 USD) freilich auch schon eingepreist sein - ein KGV von 13 ist ja selber für einen "Retailer" in Ordnung.
Wie auch immer: meine Experimentierfreude ist begrenzt. Lieber eine Chance verpasst als wieder "Miese" aussitzen müssen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/050804/hw10-q.html mit der kann man sich ja mal rumquälen
Optionen
| Boardmail an "grace" |
Wertpapier: Headwaters |
Ich habe in letzter Zeit immer wieder gesehen, wie Aktien trotz stellarer Quartals-Ergebnisse (z. B. Apple, Intel) nach deren Verkündung gnadenlos runtergeprügelt wurden (minus 10 % und mehr...). Das macht Zocken vor den Zahlen zum Vabanque-Spiel - zumal, wenn man bei neu entdeckten Aktien (HW hab ich erst kürzlich ins Visier genommen) noch kein rechtes Fingerspitzengefühl hat.
http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=HW
der Anteil an Shorts war zuvor an der Nyse gestiegen laut Meldung,aber dazu einer gestern:
"I have consulted with a former options specialist and he indicated that the action today is very bullish. the key point i found most interesting was his belief that the shorts would most likely NOT be buying this Nov 30 call line that has been most active. shorts typically do not buy in-the-money options as insurance as they are too expensive, and they would be looking to insure against the big pop associated with positive earnings. they would most likely be buying the 35 calls. Nov 30 calls volume= 2700, 35's= 600.
this leads me to believe that the shorts are going to be even more squeezed, as well as the bullish implications of bullish players positioning themselves pre-earnings. not to mention that the "smart-information" money tends to use in-the-money options."
Mein Problem: Ich finde die Aktie gut und interessant, habe aber als Außenstehender zu wenig Einblick in die Interna, um mir eine "gescheite Meinung" bilden zu können. Daher wäre für mich ein Kauf vor den Ergebnissen pures Lotteriespiel. Das heißt natürlich nicht, dass HW heute nachmittag (die Ergebnisse kommen vor US-Börseneröffnung) nicht trotzdem nach oben schießen kann.
Die große Frage bleibt: Beruht der Kursrückgang von 45 auf 31 USD in den letzten drei Monaten auf Insider-Verkäufen, die wissen, wohin der Hase läuft, oder wurde HW nur vom generellen Ausverkauf bei Energiewerten getroffen?
Realtime-Taxe: Geld: 28,04 Vol. 1.000
Brief: 28,37 Vol. 1.000
Taxierungszeitpunkt08.11.2005§10:23:08 Uhr
akt. Spread 0,330
Last§28,04 G Vol. 0
Kurszeit08.11.2005§10:23:05 Uhr
Optionen
| Boardmail an "grace" |
Wertpapier: Headwaters |
Sollte HW heute nachmittag nach den Zahlen (vorbörslich veröffentlicht) nachgeben, werde ich kaufen.
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Press Release Source: Headwaters Incorporated
Headwaters Incorporated Announces Commercial Scale Test of Its Proprietary (HC)3(TM) Heavy Oil Hydrocracking Technology
Monday November 7, 3:56 pm ET
SOUTH JORDAN, Utah--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 7, 2005--Headwaters Incorporated (NYSE: HW - News) today announced that it has begun a commercial-scale demonstration of its proprietary (HC)3(TM) Heavy Oil Hydrocracking Technology ("(HC)3 Technology") at a large commercial refinery. The (HC)3 Technology uses a unique liquid catalyst, chemically generated within the process plant, to change residual oil feedstocks into higher-value distillates which can be further refined into gasoline, diesel and other fuel products. This test will take approximately one month to complete, after which Headwaters expects to announce more technically detailed results. At this early point, the test is proceeding as expected and will be carefully monitored throughout the test period.
The refinery for this initial full-scale test was selected because the (HC)3 Technology is relatively easy to integrate with the refinery's existing hydrocracking reactor system. (HC)3 Technology utilizes a specially designed catalyst addition and conditioning system to function with the existing ebullated bed reactor.
Headwaters believes that the (HC)3 Technology represents a breakthrough in heavy oil upgrading. Older processes for upgrading so-called "bottom of the barrel" residuals have been in commercial use for almost a century. The earliest of these relied on "thermal cracking" -- breaking down large molecules into smaller ones at high temperatures -- while later technologies utilized solid catalysts and hydrogen addition to improve the quality of the main products and to minimize the production of unwanted byproducts. Solid catalysts, though, are limited by their physical structure in terms of the maximum amount of residuum that can be converted and to the quality of the products. Before the introduction of Headwaters' (HC)3 Technology and its unique liquid-phase catalyst, conventional (solid) catalytic hydrocracking was the state-of-the-art in heavy oil upgrading. Now, by utilizing this new liquid-phase catalyst technology, we believe refiners can produce more distillates of better quality than anything previously possible.
Having a combined throughput of nearly 500,000 barrels per day of residual oil, ebullated bed heavy oil upgrading units, similar to the one where the trial is being carried out, are capable of quickly integrating and utilizing the (HC)3(TM) Technology. These plants are diversely located in North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and often process the kinds of heavy crude oils found in Canada, Mexico and Russia, as well as the lower grades of Arabian and other OPEC crudes. In addition to ebullated bed reactors, heavy oil is upgraded in less efficient fixed bed reactors around the world. Fixed bed reactors are the most common upgrading technology for heavy oil.
The residuum-handling capacity of the world's ebullated and fixed bed heavy oil hydrocracking reactors is approximately 2.7 million barrels per day. In the latter half of 2005, the price-spread between No. 2 fuel oil and residual oil has been in the range of $20 to $25 per barrel. At current residuum conversion rates, those 2.7 million barrels of heavy oil are converted into just under 1 million barrels of light materials, with the remaining 1.7 million barrels sold for blending into low-value asphalt, bunker fuel and similar residual products. If these existing plants were converted to (HC)3 Technology, the increase in heavy oil conversion from today's average of 37% could go as high as 50% to 60%, equivalent to an additional 350,000 to 600,000 barrels of high-value fuel oil products. At a differential price of $25 per barrel, (HC)3 Technology potentially could add as much as $9 to $15 million of gross value per day by producing No. 2 fuel rather than residual fuel, equivalent to a total gross value creation for these refineries in the range of $3 to $5 billion dollars per year.
Beyond its application as an additive to existing heavy oil hydrocrackers, the (HC)3(TM) Technology, including hydrocracking processes and proprietary catalytic materials, is also designed for use as the principal hydrocracking technology for new projects based on heavy crudes, including Canada's tar sand bitumen. Estimated at 174 billion barrels of crude oil, Canadian bitumen represents a large portion of the world's oil reserves and efforts are underway by Canadian producers to increase production from these resources.
"We are pleased that the commercial test of our breakthrough (HC)3(TM) Technology is finally underway," said Craig Hickman, president of Headwaters Technology Innovation Group. Hickman added, "Now perhaps more than ever, the world needs new technology that makes the growing supply of heavy oil more valuable and easier to work with. Without building a new refinery, (HC)3(TM) Technology may decrease some of the need for new crude oil because we can produce additional light distillates from the heavy oil that we already have."
About Headwaters Incorporated
Headwaters Incorporated is a world leader in creating value through innovative advancements in the utilization of natural resources. Headwaters is a diversified growth company providing products, technologies and services to the energy, construction and home improvement industries. Through its alternative energy, coal combustion products, and building materials businesses, the company earns a growing revenue stream that provides the capital needed to expand and acquire synergistic new business opportunities.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this report are forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws and Headwaters intends that such forward-looking statements be subject to the safe-harbor created thereby.
Forward-looking statements include Headwaters' expectations as to the managing and marketing of coal combustion products, the production and marketing of building materials and products, the licensing of technology and chemical sales to alternative fuel facilities, the receipt of product sales, license fees and royalty revenues, the development, commercialization, and financing of new technologies and other strategic business opportunities and acquisitions, and other information about Headwaters. Such statements that are not purely historical by nature, including those statements regarding Headwaters' future business plans, the operation of facilities, the availability of tax credits, the availability of feedstocks, and the marketability of the coal combustion products, building products, and synthetic fuel, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding future events and our future results that are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industries in which we operate and the beliefs and assumptions of our management. Actual results may vary materially from such expectations. Words such as "expects," "anticipates," "targets," "goals," "projects," "believes," "seeks," "estimates," variations of such words, and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Any statements that refer to projections of our future financial performance, our anticipated growth and trends in our businesses, and other characterizations of future events or circumstances, are forward-looking.
In addition to matters affecting the coal combustion product, alternative fuel, and building products industries or the economy generally, factors which could cause actual results to differ from expectations stated in forward-looking statements include, among others, the factors described in the captions entitled "Forward-looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in Item 7 in Headwaters' Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2004, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and other periodic filings and prospectuses.
Although Headwaters believes that its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of its knowledge of its business and operations, there can be no assurance that our results of operations will not be adversely affected by such factors. Unless legally required, we undertake no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements for any reason. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this report.
Our Internet address is www.headwaters.com. There we make available, free of charge, our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K and any amendments to those reports, as soon as reasonably practicable after we electronically file such material with, or furnish it to, the SEC. Our reports can be accessed through the investor relations section of our Web site.
Contact:
Headwaters Incorporated
Sharon Madden, 801-984-9400 (Investor Relations)
or
Financial Relations Board
Tricia Ross, 617-520-7064 (Analyst)
Source: Headwaters Incorporated
Unklar bleibt jedoch, wie die Börse darauf reagiert [vgl. Apple, die trotz Gewinn-Vervierfachung (!) abstürzten]. Weiterhin offen ist die Guidance.
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6:28am 11/08/05
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Headwaters fourth-quarter net income rises to $44 million (HW) By Sarah Turner
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Headwaters Inc. (HW) said that fourth-quarter net income rose to $44 million, or 95 cents a share, from $19.5 million, or 51 cents a share, a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected the resource services provider to report earnings of 81 cents a share. Total revenue rose 59% to $315.1 million. The company said that due to continued operational strength, it is providing guidance for fiscal 2006 in a range of $2.60 to $2.75 a share.
Headwaters scheint IMHO zu fallen, weil unsicher ist, ob die Subventionen für Kohleverflüssigung in den USA 2007 auslaufen oder nicht (die Förderung wurde in der Vergangenheit mehrmals verlängert). Kohleverflüssigung macht nach neuesten Zahlen 24,4 % des Gesamtumsatzes aus. Was die Aktie schwächeln lässt, ist wohl diese UNSICHERHEIT - die Börse hasst Unsicherheit. Wäre sicher, dass die Förderung 2007 ausliefe, würde die Aktie wohl steigen, weil dann diese Unsicherheit vom Tisch ist. Widersinnig, aber wahr...
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Motley Fool
Headwaters: Bargain-Priced Growth
By W.D. Crotty
November 8, 2005
Natural resources innovator Headwaters (NYSE: HW) is growing quickly and making money. Let's take a closer look and see whether it's a good investment.
The record results for the fourth quarter handily beat analyst estimates. Revenue was $315.1 million, $7.7 million over expectations. Earnings, at $1.09 a share, were $0.28 above projections.
Headwaters has grown quickly through acquisitions. Even after adjusting for acquisitions, revenue increased 19% and operating income jumped 27% in fiscal year 2005 over 2004.
One dark cloud on the horizon is the 2007 expiration of a tax credit that supports domestic fuel alternatives to foreign oil. Headwaters licenses its synthetic fuel process and sells a latex-based bonding agent to synfuel customers. Although this tax credit has been renewed in the past, there's no guarantee it will be again or whether Headwater's specific process will be covered by any renewal.
For now, the company expects synfuel facility owners will continue to operate if oil prices stay at today's elevated levels. Still, with chemical reagents and license fees running at $77.0 million (24.4% of total sales) this quarter, a slowdown in this business would be significant to the company.
What has investors excited about this company's future is a number of innovative products. Yesterday, the company announced it has begun a commercial-scale demonstration project of its (HC)3 Heavy Oil Hydrocracking Technology. To be completed in 30 days, it offers the hope of converting residual oil feedstock into higher-value distillates that can be further refined into gasoline, diesel, and other fuel products.
Also holding promise is a hydrogen peroxide pilot plant test that was successful. A demonstration facility will now be built that will provide the engineering data needed to bring this technology to commercialization.
The company has also signed coal-to-liquids project analysis agreements in India, the Philippines, and China.
The company is projecting that fiscal year 2006 earnings will be between $2.60 and $2.75 a share (up from $2.40 this year). At the low end of guidance, that prices the stock at 12.7 times 2006 earnings. That's a reasonable valuation for a company on track for 10% earnings growth in 2006.
But consider this: Analysts expect earnings to grow 24.0% annually for the next five years. If the company's pilot and demonstration technologies take off, that kind of growth is possible. So for those with a long-term outlook who are also willing to accept that the tax credit will not get rescinded and analysts are not being too optimistic, the stock -- with a multiple half of its expected growth rate -- is bargain priced.
Furthermore, provided traditional energy sources remain at elevated costs, the demand and associated cost for alternative sources becomes much more viable for prospective consumers. But in assessing the company and the stock, those are questions as much as they are answers, so stay tuned folks.
Allerdings kann ich mir das in diesem Fall kaum vorstellen, da der Kurs in den letzten Wochen bereits stark gefallen war.
´
Eine Frage die sich aufdrängt ist:
Wieso die Diversifikation in Baumaterialien, der amerikanische Bauboom neigt sich dem Ende, da sollte man doch lieber die Finger davon lassen.
Ich werden Headwaters noch einige Tage beobachten bevor ich eine Entscheidung bzgl. eines Investments treffe.
Gruss
permanent
Der Housing-Boom neigt sich dem Ende zu, aber Baumaterialien wie Ziegel und Beton werden immer benötigt - man denke nur an den Wiederaufbau nach den Hurrikan-Schäden.
Durch die Diversifikation sank der Umsatzanteil des Sektors Kohleverflüssigung von 88 % vor einigen Jahren auf jetzt 24,4 % - was Risiken aus einem etwaigen US-Förderungs-Stop in 2007 (davon sind die China- und Indien-Projekte natürlich nicht betroffen) deutlich mindert.