Calpine - interessanter Alternativ-Versorger
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Charttechnisch bewegt sich die Aktie knapp über dem 52-Wochen-Tief.
Portrait:
Calpine Corporation. The Group's principal activity is to generate electricity in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. The Group generates revenue from three segments: Electric Generation and Marketing, Oil and Gas Production and Marketing and Corporate and Other Activities. It also develops, constructs, owns and operates power generation facilities and the sale of electricity and its by-product, thermal energy primarily in the form of steam. The Group also has 12 gas-fired projects and 1 project expansion currently under construction collectively having a net capacity of 7,685 MW. The California Department of Water Resources is one of the major customers of the Group. The Group sold Alvin South Field oil and gas assets and the specialty data center engineering business in 2003 and its 50% interest in the Lost Pines 1 Energy Center in 2004. On 23-Mar-2004, the Group acquired Calpine Cogeneration Company.
Und hier noch eine News:
Tokyo, Japan, Apr 15, 2005 (JCNN via COMTEX) -- Calpine Corporation of California and Mitsui & Co. (TSE: 8031) have jointly entered into a 20-year Clean Energy Supply Contract with the Ontario Power Authority to provide clean energy from the Greenfield Energy Centre, a new 1,005-megawatt natural gas fired power plant to be constructed by Greenfield Energy Centre, a partnership between Calpine and Mitsui. The new energy center supports the provincial government's efforts to replace older coal fired plants with clean, efficient gas fired generation that will minimize greenhouse gas and other emissions. The construction is expected to begin in December. The facility is slated to go into commercial operation in February 2008.
§
21.11.2004 20:07
Calpine and GE Commercial Finance Enter Into $400 Million Sale/Leaseback
of Fox Energy Center
SAN JOSE, Calif., Nov. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Calpine (Nachrichten) has entered into a $400 million, 25-year, non-recourse sale/leaseback transaction with affiliates of GE Commercial Finance Energy Financial Services for the 560-megawatt Fox Energy Center under construction in Kaukauna, Wis. This clean-burning, natural gas-fired facility will supply electricity to Wisconsin Public Service Corporation under a ten-year power sales agreement, with electricity deliveries scheduled to begin June 1, 2005.
"We are growing with Calpine in a long-term, multi-faceted relationship," said Alex Urquhart, president and CEO of GE Commercial Finance Energy Financial Services (EFS). "This is a perfect strategic opportunity for us: investing long-term capital in a state-of-the-art facility with an experienced developer and operator in a market with healthy power market fundamentals."
Calpine is managing construction in two phases. The first 300-megawatt unit is expected to enter operations in June 2005; the second 260-megawatt phase in December 2005. As a combined-cycle power plant, the Fox Energy Center will use two General Electric (Nachrichten) 7FB combustion turbines in combination with a steam turbine to maximize fuel efficiency.
A portion of the proceeds will be used to reimburse Calpine for approximately $135 million of construction capital spent to date on the project and to repay $20 million of existing debt associated with equipment for the project. The balance of GE Commercial Finance Energy Financial Services'' commitment will be used to complete construction. Upon completion of construction, Calpine will lease the power plant from GE Commercial Finance EFS under a 25-year facility lease. Calpine also has an option to renew the lease for a 15-year term.
"The Fox Energy Center lease is another major milestone in advancing Calpine''s financing and liquidity-enhancing program," stated Calpine Chief Financial Officer Bob Kelly. "We appreciate the support of GE Commercial Finance EFS in creating an attractive, long-term lease for this new important Wisconsin energy resource."
In addition to the Fox Energy Center, Calpine operates more than 1,500 megawatts of electric generating capacity in the Wisconsin power market, under contract to utilities throughout the region.
Eine Marktkapitalisierung von € 1 Mrd. klingt ja nicht schlecht, vor allem weil die meisten US-Aktien doch überbewertet erscheinen.
Hier ein Artikel von der "Motley Fool"-Webseite, der die Cons und Pros zu Calpine gut abwägt. Wegen der Schulden bleibt Calpine ein riskantes, aber potenziell lukratives Investment (ähnlich Alstom). Wichtig finde ich die Feststellung (unten fett), dass sich der US-Energiesektor zurzeit an einem zyklischen Tiefpunkt befindet, ab 2006 soll es wieder besser werden. Dann würde auch das Gegenargument der derzeit schlechten Kapazitätsauslastung hinfällig. Würde mich wirklich wundern, wenn der Energiebedarf in USA mittelfristig nicht wächst. Teures Öl würde zudem die alternativen Ressourcen, über die Calpine verfügt, interessanter machen. IMHO ist das teure Öl noch gar nicht im Calpine-Kurs eingepreist. Momentan leidet die Firma daran, dass sie die gestiegenen Gaspreise nicht in vollem Umfang an die Kunden weitergeben kann. Sollte die Nachfrage steigen, ließen sich auch die Preise erhöhen.
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Calpine Pines for Better Days
By Stephen D. Simpson
February 24, 2005
Remember the California power outages a few years back? You can bet that independent energy producer Calpine (NYSE: CPN) does. Those were heady days with rolling blackouts, high demand, and good pricing. It was all good for Calpine.
Since then, though, the independent power market has all but collapsed, and Calpine has had to resort to all but sitting under an overpass with a hand-written sign saying "will generate power for food" just to stay afloat.
Judging by the fourth quarter, things aren't getting easier any time soon. Fools can check out the release for the revenue and earnings, but I'll be delving into some other subjects that are equally important.
The company's spark spread (the difference between the price Calpine gets for power and the cost of the gas to produce that power) declined again in December to $21.36/MWh from $23.90 a year ago. Additionally, the company's capacity factor declined to 45.6% from 48.9% a year ago. Both of these are lower than the third quarter and mean that Calpine is producing less than half of the electricity that it could, while profiting less from that production. Yet the company continues to add to its generation capacity. Go figure.
What's more, Calpine was only about two-thirds successful in achieving its liquidity event targets for 2004. Although the company did complete $2.1 billion in liquidity-enhancing transactions, the original target had been more on the order of $3 billion. Liquidity is key to Calpine, since the company has a mammoth debt load ($18 billion in debt vs. $22.9 billion in total capitalization) and negative cash flow.
If there is any good news, it's that the power industry seems to be at or near a cyclical trough and conditions should begin to improve in 2006 and beyond. Of course, that won't do Calpine much good unless it can hold out that long. Oddly enough, Calpine is something of a weather play these days, since roughly 20% of California's power comes from hydroelectric facilities in the Pacific Northwest.
Given the ongoing drought in that area, there is a chance that there could be additional power shortages in Southern California this year. Should that happen, Calpine might just get enough juice to create a little breathing room for its debt load.
Any Fool ["Motley Fool" Webseiten-Besucher, A. L.)] looking at this stock needs to be completely aware of the challenges ahead. While it's true that success in the company's efforts to refinance its debt and hold on for a cyclical recovery would make the stock cheap at today's prices, it's equally true that the company could easily be bankrupt within a few years. Given ongoing declines in spark spread and capacity utilization, as well as difficulties in achieving liquidity events, I'd hold off until there are real signs of recovery at Calpine.
Gewinn 2005: -0.79 Dollar/Aktie = Mittelwert von 15 Analysten
Gewinn 2006: -0,41 Dollar/Aktie = Mittelwert von 11 Analysten (Hoch: + 0,20/Tief: -1,30)
Wieviel Calpine verdient, hängt u. a. vom "spark spread" ab - das ist Differenz zwischen dem vom Kunden erzielten Strompreis und den Herstellungskosten für den Strom. Diese Gewinne sind letztes Jahr gefallen, es deutet sich jedoch, auch wegen des teureren Öls, eine Wende an:
Lehmann hat Calpine am 11.8.2004 von "Underweight" auf Equalweight" hochgestuft. Begründung: "Cites evidence that spark spreads may be 'climbing out of the trough'"
"Climbing out of the trough" heißt: Der Spark Spread kriecht aus dem zyklischen Tief nach oben.
Calpine hat daraufhin selbst zu den Gerüchten Stellung genommen und dementiert, dass sie Bankrott anmelden wollen. Hier die Erklärung:
Calpine Responds to False Market Rumors
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2005 2:32 PM
SAN JOSE, Calif., April 22, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Calpine Corporation (CPN) responds to trading pressure on the company's equity and bonds as a result of today's false market rumors:
"While it is not Calpine's policy to respond to market rumors, we feel compelled to comment today to assure the marketplace that these rumors are false. Calpine remains in compliance with its corporate and project indentures. Further, the company assures the market that it has no plans to file for bankruptcy."
"The company continues to move forward on its 2005 financial program focused on reducing corporate debt, enhancing liquidity, and strengthening its long-term contract portfolio."
A major power company, Calpine Corporation supplies customers and communities with electricity from clean, efficient, natural gas-fired and geothermal power plants. Calpine was founded in 1984. It is included in the S&P 500 Index and is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CPN. For more information, visit http://www.calpine.com.
Der 2. Artikel (WSJ) berichtet, dass in Kalifornien sich wieder ein wasserknappes Jahr andeutet - die Schneedecke in den Bergen ist dünn. Dann fehlt es an Wasser für Wasserkraftwerke, die normalerweise 20 % des Stroms in Kalif. liefern. Calpine wird u. a. mit 2 im Juni in Betrieb gehenden Kraftwerken in die Bresche springen. Insgesamt scheint sich die bislang etwas magere Auslastung der vorhandenen Kraftwerke zu erhöhen. Energieexperten rechnen in Kalif. mit einer jährlich um 3,7 % steigenden Stromnachfrage.
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SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE
Calpine refutes rumors
David Baker, Chronicle Staff Writer
Saturday, April 23, 2005
Rumors of financial troubles at Calpine Corp. sent the San Jose power company's stock reeling Friday and forced the company to issue an unusual rebuttal insisting the company is not headed for bankruptcy.
Calpine, which runs electrical plants, released a statement late in the trading day saying it remains in compliance with all its financial obligations. Calpine has been hit hard by a glut of electricity in much of the United States, as well as a steep increase in the price of the natural gas burned in its power plants. The company has been selling off unneeded assets to reduce its debt.
"While it is not Calpine's policy to respond to market rumors, we feel compelled to comment today to assure the marketplace that these rumors are false," the company's statement read. "Calpine remains in compliance with its corporate and project indentures. Further, the company assures the market that it has no plans to file for bankruptcy."
Calpine's stock price, which has languished below $3 all month, fell more than 31 percent to hit $1.69 before Calpine issued its statement. After the statement, the stock recovered some of its losses but still closed down 27 cents, or 10.98 percent, at $2.19.
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WALL STREET JOURNAL
California's Electricity Planners
Hope They're Ready for Summer
By REBECCA SMITH
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
April 13, 2005; Page D13
California officials are preparing for tight electricity supplies this summer, despite improvements that include several new power plants and the elimination of a major power-line bottleneck.
If summer temperatures are normal, no problem is expected. But if it's unusually hot, the organization responsible for electric-system reliability says there could be power shortages in Southern California that will require special intervention, including pleas to cut usage. In 2004, a strong economy created record electricity demand on seven occasions, but there were no electricity disruptions.
No matter how hot it gets this year, there won't be a repeat of 2000-01, when tight supplies and market manipulation spawned runaway prices and rolling blackouts. Since 2001, California has shifted most of its buying out of the spot market and into long-term contracts. The state is also protected by a federally mandated electricity price cap of $250 a megawatt hour in the spot market.
Tight conditions this year are being blamed on strong economic growth and a lack of hydropower available for import from the Pacific Northwest, where the snowpack as of April 1 was only 64% of normal.
"We're not swimming in megawatts but we're not looking at blackouts," said Stephanie McCorkle, spokeswoman for the California Independent System Operator, based in Folsom, Calif. The organization is conducting a test on April 26 to make sure it can deliver all the power that's under contract for summer. Statewide demand this year is growing at a 3.7% pace.
Prices for hydroelectricity from federal dams have been high -- $50 to $60 a megawatt hour this month, compared with as little as $10 in past years. This is the sixth year of low water for the Pacific Northwest, which traditionally helps California with electricity in the spring and summer and in return gets power from California in the fall and winter.
There has been unprecedented cooperation between California energy agencies this year to prepare the state. Joe Desmond, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's energy adviser, said the state has tried to plan for the worst but "you cannot plan to protect yourself against every possible contingency," such as a major forest fire knocking out a big power line in the middle of a heat storm.
By the summer of 2006, California's investor-owned utilities will be required to obtain more than enough power to meet their customers' needs. Meanwhile, funding for new power plants has declined. Calpine Corp. is expected to put two big new plants into service by the end of June, but supplies remain especially tight in the southern part of the state, where fewer new plants have been constructed.
"Power-plant retirements are also a concern," Mr. Desmond said at a California Assembly legislative hearing Monday, noting that 5,000 to 9,000 megawatts of capacity may be retired in the next few years.
Problematisch sind die zurzeit hohen Gas-Preise (viele von Calpines Kraftwerken sind gasbefeuert), die mit dem Öl nach oben schossen. Dem stehen gesetzlich vorgeschriebenen Maximalpreise für Strom entgegen (250 $/MW) - so dass Calpine immer mehr in die Klemme kommt, wenn das Gas noch teurer wird. Sollte das Öl drehen, würde allerdings auch das Gas wieder billiger.
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Calpine denies bankruptcy
`THESE RUMORS ARE FALSE,' ENERGY FIRM SAYS AS SHARES DROP 11%
By Steve Johnson
San Jose Mercury News
With its stock plunging Friday, Calpine took the extraordinary step of denying rumors that it plans to file for bankruptcy protection.
``While it is not Calpine's policy to respond to market rumors, we feel compelled to comment today to assure the marketplace that these rumors are false,'' the San Jose builder and operator of electric power plants said in a statement.
In heavy trading Friday, Calpine's shares fell as much as 31 percent. Following the company's statement, the stock rebounded somewhat, ending the day at $2.19, down 27 cents, or 11 percent.
Worries about the company's condition apparently stemmed from an April 13 letter sent to Calpine's board by Harbert Distressed Investment Master Fund. The letter expressed concern that Calpine could soon violate the terms of a bond issue linked to the Saltend Energy Centre in the United Kingdom.
Calpine, which has about $18 billion in debt, has indicated it may sell the Saltend plant to raise much-needed cash.
If Calpine does that, the Harbert fund said, it might undermine the repayment of the bond issue, which is backed in part by the Saltend plant.
``We strongly suspect that the proceeds are intended to be used to repurchase or refinance Calpine debt, and that these transactions are part of an ongoing de facto liquidation and reorganization of Calpine,'' the letter said.
``We have serious and growing concerns over Calpine's solvency,'' the letter added, suggesting the sale could be ``in advance of a formal bankruptcy filing or out-of-court restructuring announcement.''
A day after the letter was sent, Calpine issued a news release saying it was in full compliance with all of its legal obligations related to Saltend. But given the rumors Friday, it issue a second statement more directly addressing the issue of bankruptcy.
``It's unfortunate,'' Calpine spokeswoman Katherine Potter said of the rumors.
She said federal rules require the company to be discreet about its finances until it reports its first-quarter earnings May 5, but she acknowledged Calpine has gone through a tough financial period recently.
In 2004, the company suffered its first yearly loss since going public in 1996.
The company is also burdened by about $18 billion in debt, and it recently warned investors in a regulatory filing that it doesn't expect to generate enough cash from operations to fund its debt obligations, construction plans and other business needs in 2005. In the March 31 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Calpine said it is exploring ways to make up for the shortfall, including possible asset sales.
Potter said some of the red ink stems from the company's various power-plant building projects, including the Metcalf Energy Center in San Jose, which is due to start operating in June. She added that the rising price of natural gas, which fuels many of Calpine's 92 power plants, has cut into profits.
Nonetheless, Potter said the company's plants are among the industry's most fuel-efficient. And with electricity demand expected to be substantial in California and some other states this summer, she said, the company has no need to entertain thoughts of bankruptcy.
Some industry analysts agree.
``We do not find these rumors to be credible,'' KDP Investment Advisors of Vermont declared in a report to investors Friday. ``Cash flow will remain weak,'' it warned, but ``liquidity looks adequate to carry the company through 2006.''
Maureen Howe, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets in Vancouver, said she also saw no reason to believe Calpine was close to filing for bankruptcy protection.
``A lot of people are very bullish'' about the energy market, which should help the company she said. ``They think power demand is going to increase, particularly in California.''
Der Sell-Off am Freitag (kurzzeitig minus 30 %, Schlusskurs minus 10 %) hat nun alle alten Stopp-Loss-Order bis zum Intraday-Tief von 1,69 Dollar rausgewaschen. Short-Seller können also nun nicht mehr darauf hoffen, durch erneute Panikmache wie mit dem jüngsten Pleitegerücht Honig saugen zu können. Im Gegenteil hatte das Gerücht ja Freitag ein deutliches Dementi von Calpine zur Folge (Posting 9), auch Analysten und Wirtschaftsprüfer erklärten, bis Ende 2006 reiche die Liquidität (siehe Posting 12, unten fett). Wenn ich short wäre, würde ich mich jetzt jedenfalls eindecken. Der Schlusskurs am Freitag war 2,19 USD, fiel dann nachbörslich auf 2,12. Wenn die anderen Short-Seller das auch so sehen, bleibt ihnen gar nichts anderes übrig, als jetzt zu kaufen. Das könnte den Kurs nächste Woche stark nach oben treiben - und würde zugleich das Chartbild schönen (Anstieg mit hohem Volumen nach Kapitulationstief).
Quelle: WSJ
Short Interest
Total On 4/8/05: 232,727,000
Total Shares For Previous Month: 233,834,000
Short Interest Ratio 28
Short Interest as % of Public Float: 43.33%
Würde sich der Kurs in ähnlicher Weise bei Calpine entwickeln, könnte es einen Anstieg bis zum alten Widerstand bei 2,80 USD geben. Das wäre, bezogen auf den Schlusskurs am Freitag von 2,19, ein mögliches Plus von 27,8 %.
Calpine Rumors Briefly Halt Trade Of Firm's Stock
By REBECCA SMITH
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
April 25, 2005; Page A11
Trading in Calpine Corp. stock was briefly halted Friday when the company's stocks and bonds got pummeled amid rumors, denied by the company, that the firm was in violation of some loan covenants and might file for bankruptcy protection.
Calpine, an independent electricity-generation company, vehemently refuted the rumors as "false" and added that it "remains in compliance with its corporate and project indentures" and "has no plans to file for bankruptcy."
Some observers said the rumors likely relate to Calpine's unenviable position of being the company on the New York Stock Exchange with the most short-selling interest. Some 232 million shares have been "short" sold as of April 15, meaning that those investors stand to profit if Calpine's stock drops in value. Although short selling is perfectly legal, it is illegal to spread false rumors that cause a stock to fall.
Rick Barraza, Calpine's head of investor relations, said the firm is frustrated by the rumors but added that "it's very difficult to try to determine who's saying this stuff."
The company has borrowed heavily to fund an aggressive power-plant construction program and is regarded as highly leveraged, with current debt in excess of $18 billion on $27 billion worth of assets. A downturn in power markets in late 2001, followed by a tightening of credit in 2002, has been hard on the company. It scaled back on a plant-construction program and has successfully pushed its biggest debt maturities out to where it hopes market conditions will have improved. It operates a large fleet of newly built gas-fired power plants in 22 states and has another 11 plants under construction.
Calpine has $186 million of debt that must be repaid this year and another $264 million next year, both maturities that analysts believe it will be able to meet without difficulty. It has $1.2 billion in secured notes and $360 million in unsecured notes due in 2007 and $1.9 billion in unsecured notes in 2008 that are more problematic. "I'm not worried until then" said Chris Ellinghaus, an equity analyst at Williams Capital Group. He added: "Rumormongers were successful at killing the stock today. People are playing fast and furious with the truth."
Calpine bonds dropped as much as six points before rebounding late in the day with Calpine's 8 3/4% notes due 2013 unchanged at 72 bid, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Calpine's common stock tumbled by as much as 76 cents a share to $1.69 before trading was stopped temporarily. After Calpine issued its denunciation and trading resumed, the stock finished the day off 11%, or 27 cents, a share at $2.19. At its peak in 2001, Calpine shares traded as high as nearly $57.
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/...oard=NYSE%3ACPN&origsymbols=cpn
Einen wackerer Trupp von Zockern (Lycos-Board) hat eine Gegen-Strategie entwickelt, an der ich mich beteilige: Wir haben unsere Aktien an der NYSE für 10 Dollar zum Verkauf gestellt (GTC). Da es eine offene Verkaufsorder gibt, können Broker unsere Aktien nun nicht mehr zum Shorten an Andere (Hedgefonds) verleihen. Die Aktie wird "non-shortable" und lässt sich von Hedgefonds nicht mehr drücken. Außerdem treibt das hohe Ask von 10 Dollar bei der Preisbildung den Preis hoch, so dass für die Shorter ein Short-Squeeze entsteht. Macht richtig Spaß!
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Analyse der Vorgänge (vom Yahoo-Board)
Profanity is an indicator
by: contracortos 04/25/05 08:22 pm
Msg: 727311 of 727341
of one's inablility to express himself/herself. This seems to be a monumental problem on this board as of late. I would like to express my thanks to whomever is responsible for driving the stock down to the low levels to which it dropped.
In that period of time, I was able to buy a substantial amount at a very reasonable price. Should the price be driven down again, I will take the same steps as taken previously and buy even more. A lot of individuals have invested in Calpine who never waste time reading this message board. To those of you who do (and want real information, not lies), the following is basically what has occurred here:
1. The market makers in conjunction with some powerful financial forces (hedge funds, banks, bondholders, etc.) somehow put out a rumor of bankruptcy. The source, of course, will be very difficult to pin down. It didn't start here and the rumor had no real effect here.
2. Then, quite a few shares were sold into the market. The small investors who inhabit this board did not sell those shares. We don't have that many to sell all at once.
3. Then, obviously, the market makers collaborated assisting in dropping the price per share. This precipitated panic among some small investors (insignificant amount) but had the real effect of taking out stop-loss orders which some investors foolishly put on their accounts.
4. The timing of the drop and clearing out of stop-loss orders was precise. As I posted in 725103, It occurred when few would be watching to remove the stops to wait and see what was going to happen. The effect was to cause their shares to be sold into the market...exacerbating the drop.
5. Then, the significant drop in price below $2.00 per share hit the switch on margin call rules for many brokerages. Some have close to 100% margin requirements when the share price drops below $2.00 per share. In other words, one can NOT have any borrowed money in the shares. One must cover all margin. This effected a further sale of shares.
6. The margin call effect will linger for several days, creating very low prices on the shares. Someone is buying millions of shares at the low prices (short covering). Volume has approached 40 million shares for two days straight.
7. Bashers come on the board (multiple IDs, all-hours posting) to deliberately try to discourage anyone from buying shares (the amount would be insignificant, but have some effect nonetheless) as someone BIG needs to buy millions at the cheapest possible price.
8. A news story comes out (helped by contacts) mentioning some "unnamed" trader saying that traders are avoiding Calpine. This can not be substantiated, but adds to the uncertainty and fright of investors.
9. More disinformation will probably be put out within the next 2-3 days in hopes of maintaining the low share price. The tragedy of it all is that whoever orchestrated this thing took a lot of folks' shares with unethical practices.
10. Watch and see if the above (with minor additions) is not found to be the case over the long run. Have a nice evening and thanks to all.
in ihn rein.
Das fehlende Feedback hat allerdings nichts damit zu tun, daß die Aktie
nicht in Ffm gehandelt wird. Sie wird vielmehr gehandelt in
Frankfurt
Bremen
Düsseldorf
Stuttgart
Xetra
Also eine Fehleinschätzung von Dir. Eine von vielen, von einer ganzen
Kette.
Was mich völlig verdutzt ist die Tatsache, daß Du allen sonstigen Gepflo-
genheiten zum Trotz mit glatten 10% in eine Aktie eingestiegen bist, deren
Risiken Du selbst seitenlang aufgezählt hast.
Und Du hast mit Dingen hantiert und spekuliert (Shortsqueeze, Leverage,
Charttechnik) die allesamt etwas für Zocker sind, aber nie und nimmer für
einen besonnenen und qualitätsbewußten Anleger.
Ich wage nicht daran zu denken, ob Du heute noch dabei warst. Vielleicht
hast Du kurz vorher noch den Braten gerochen und bist rausgekommen. Falls
nicht: dann mach's wie ich, und zieh Deine Lehren draus.
Ich habe begonnen, meine Bestände an US-Papieren abzubauen. Damit werde
ich erst aufhören, wenn alle weg sind. Mich kotzt es an, auf Kursbewegungen
zu starren, für die ich keine Erklärung habe, und für die ich bei uns hier auch
keine begründenden Informationen finde; jedenfalls auf vertretbarem Wege.
Dazu kommt, daß die Technik (Chart- und Markt-) von Tag zu Tag mieser wird.
Ich habe heute mit einigem Entsetzen eine Entdeckung gemacht, die mir bis-
her entgangen ist, und die ich auch in keiner Publikation gesehen habe:
Der Nasdaq Composite hat in den letzten 15 Monaten ein gigantisches Doppel-
top durchlaufen, was man allerdings nur im 3-Jahreschart sieht. Daraus ergibt
sich ein weiteres Korrekturpotential von sage und schreibe 550 Punkten!!!
Das bedeutet: Kursziel 1.350.
Bezogen auf das Top vom 31.12.2004 entspricht das einer Korrektur von 38%.
Übrigens sind wir dann wieder im Jahr 1997...
Sicher muß der Worst-Case nicht voll eintreffen. Und sicher werden die übrigen
Indizes nicht ebenso korrigieren. Die deutschen sowieso nicht, weil wir dann
Dax-KGVs von etwa 5-6 hätten. Spätestens bei 7-8 werden alle Unternehmen
aufgekauft, das läßt sich leicht nachrechnen.
Apropos Dax: ich habe erste Käufe in Dax-Titel gestartet. Ich bin nach reifli-
cher Abwägung zu dem Ergebnis gekommen, daß die Dax-Titel die derzeit welt-
weit mit Abstand interessantesten Werte sind. Innerdeutsch sind sie bislang
schlechter gelaufen als die Nebenwerte. Rechnet man die Bewertungen hoch,
sind Aufschläge von mindestens 15% fällig. Diese sind noch nicht eingepreist.
Ein Titel wie die LH zum Beispiel hätte in den USA mindestens das Doppelte
wert. Die LH ist weltweit die beste Line, am besten gemanagt, mit den besten
Aussichten. Es ist ein Frage der Zeit, bis das eingepreist wird. Falls nicht,
wird LH weggekauft. Ich habe unter 10,- EURO gekauft.
Außerdem CONTI und TUI. Alle zum Abstauberlimit. Bei fallenden Kursen kaufe
ich alle 5% nach. Viel Risiko nach unten ist nicht, wegen der Dividenden, und
weil man sofort in Aufkaufregionen kommt bzw. schon ist. Alle drei sind offen-
bar bereits im Visier von milliardenschweren Investorengruppen, die sich gerne
die Filets aus dem Industrieland Deutschland herausschneiden wollen.
Dazu kommen Beimengungen spekulativer Art: Gold-, Silber- und Kupferminen,
die noch ganz am Anfang stehen, mit open End. Und eine polnische Telekom-
gesellschaft mit 500% Potantial fürs erste.
Auf meiner Kaufliste steht auch noch ein Hersteller von Bohrköpfen für Ölbohr-
maschinen. Wegen des hohen Ölpreises werden Neubohrungen zusehends profitabler.
Mit dieser AG kaufe ich nicht die Goldader, sondern den Schaufelanbieter.
Ich warte nur noch auf einen günstigen Einstieg.
Laß hören, was Dein Engagement in CLP macht. Und- viel Glück!
With 537 million shares in its float and 232.73 million shares declared short as of April 8th, the failure to deliver in shares of CPN has not been resolved and a buy-in is pending.
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