Reis

Rice prices expected to scale higher on speculation Thailand to cut exports

World rice prices may be set for another sharp spike with leading exporter Thailand expected to cut supplies starting this month.

Domestic prices of the staple have surged 50 percent since January, and Thai farmers are reported to be hoarding rice on hopes of further increases, traders said Wednesday.

Thailand is the world's biggest rice exporter but producers are now reluctant to meet commitments with the strength of the Thai currency, the baht, and high domestic prices acting as major deterrents.

Exporters who have suffered steep losses in fulfilling commitments made at the beginning of the year are expected to scale back supplies starting April. Traders in Hong Kong and the Philippines said they haven't yet received official notification from exporters in Thailand warning them about lower exports.

""What I know from our counterparts in Bangkok is that they too cannot get hold of any supply at the moment. Supply there is just too tight right now. I think most suppliers are focusing on their domestic market,"" said Guia Manay, rice trader of Daewoo International.

India and Vietnam, the other major rice exporting nations, have already announced curbs on exports, but lower supplies from Thailand may have even more serious implications for global prices of the commodity.

Vietnam said last week that it will limit rice shipments to 3.5 million tonnes, lower than the 4.5 million tonnes exported last year. Consumer price inflation in Vietnam hit a 12-year high in March.

India, which is also struggling to rein in inflation, banned non-basmati exports on Monday in a bid to ease prices of rice in the local market. Wholesale price inflation in India hit a 14-month high the week of March 15. Rice exports out of India in 2008-09 are expected to fall to a fraction of the 5.5 million tonnes exported last year.

Meanwhile in Hong Kong, which gets 90 percent of its rice supplies from Thailand, traders believe prices are likely to rise another 30 percent with major exporters cutting back on supplies.

Consumers have been buying unusually large amounts of the commodity, fearing a likely shortage in the near term.

""I expect the price of Thai rice to go even higher next week,"" said Ms Wai, a shopper in a supermarket chain in Hong Kong's Wan Chai business district. Wai bought 5 kilograms of rice on Wednesday, an amount she concedes is substantially higher than her family's monthly consumption of the staple.

The local administration has been quick to move to allay fears of a food shortage, saying that imports undertaken by stockholders between April 1 and June 30 are higher than in the same period of last year.

""We understand that recent price increase in Thai rice is mainly attributable to exchange rate changes and a global shortage of rice supply,"" the Hong Kong Trade and Industry Department said in a press release on Monday.

The government has also instructed stock holders to hold reserves sufficient for 15 days which will be released in case of emergencies.  

Cost of rice "stable" in China

The cost of rice remains stable, despite the staple food's worldwide price hike, government sources said.

   The grain's price is stable in China, the National Development and Reform Commission said on its website. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce said the rice retail price has seen a "continual decline" in the past week.

   Rice is a staple food for Chinese, but its price isn't influenced by the world market as the nation mainly relies on domestic supply rather than imports to meet demand, traders and agricultural experts said.

   China only imports a small amount of rice for the high-end market, according to Li Chenggui, an agricultural expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "But the amount of rice China imports from Thailand is very small, so the higher price won't affect the overall situation," Li said.

   Rice from Thailand and Vietnam, the world's major exporters of the product, has seen a sharp price increase, causing turmoil on the global market.

   Rice shortages have been reported in many countries and consumers have begun stockpiling the product.

   The cost of a ton of medium-grade rice from Thailand has more than doubled since the beginning of the year. A Thai government official recently said prices could rise higher still, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

   But consumers and the business community in China remain calm. One trader in Panjin, a key rice-producing area in Liaoning province, said the price has actually dipped slightly this year.

   The Panjin Zhongjin Rice Co trader said the price hasn't changed much in the past two years. "Rice is actually cheaper now compared with the winter," the trader, surnamed Su, said. That price drop could be due to an increase in the area available for rice paddies after the government encouraged farmers to increase supply, Su said.

   China has long been a major rice exporter on the world market, but late last year the government began curbing exports to ensure domestic supply.

   The government in December removed the export tax rebate for a series of agricultural products, including wheat and rice.

   Meanwhile, it's also increasing subsidies to farmers to increase supply. It has increased the minimum State purchase price twice this year as an incentive for farmers.

   The government has also been trying to keep a lid on the market price by enlarging State reserves. The Liaoning trader said the local grain reserve agency is still buying the grain - usually it only buys rice during winter.  

 

 

bonjour astrid

SUPER müde

versuche noch ne stde zu schlafen bevor's wieder losgeht

Euch alles gute & liebe

sw  

U.S. to export rice to Philippines   The United States will export rice to Manila, U.S. ambassador to the Philippines Kristie Kenney said on Wednesday, amid fears of a looming food crisis in the archipelago.      "We will always make our supplies available for export if the Philippines needs rice supplies," said the envoy, adding that the United States is ready to make available as much as the Philippines needs.      The Philippines imported 1.87 million tons of rice last year, making it one of the largest rice importers in the world. Vietnam and Thailand are the major rice providers for the country.      The Southeast Asian country plans to import 2.7 million tons of rice this year to alleviate the shortage, even as prices soared to near-historical levels amid tight global supplies, Philippine cable news network ABS-CBN News Channel reported.      "Rice is an important dish in the Philippines, however, less important in the U.S. so it's great partnership for us," Kenney said.      According to the latest figures available, the United States exported 4.6 million tons of rice in 2004 to other countries.

 

Philippines Seeks Wheat Supplies After China Rebuff  The Philippines,

 

battling to secure adequate rice shipments, said China turned down a request to supply wheat, underscoring the mounting problems that food- importing nations face in securing grain supplies as prices surge.

 

``China politely turned us down, saying they also need to stock up,'' Trade Secretary Peter Favila said in a telephone interview today. ``We've alerted all our trade attaches to find out where we can source wheat, so as not to cause shortages.''  The rebuff may exacerbate food-supply problems in the Philippines, the world's biggest rice importer, as growers halt or restrict shipments to ensure domestic needs are met. China, the world's biggest grain producer, raised grain tariffs this year.  China ``is tightly controlling exports'' through permits and taxes to secure grain supplies, Xu Fan, an analyst at China International Futures Co., said by phone from Shenzhen. Wheat and rice prices have jumped to records this year.  The Philippine Star reported earlier today that the government asked China to provide 200,000 metric tons of milling wheat, equivalent to about 10 percent of annual consumption. Favila said that his request to Beijing didn't specify any volume.  China has as much as 200 million tons of grain reserves, Premier Wen Jiabao said April 6. Still, China International's Zhu said that while 200,000 tons may be small relative to the stockpiles, China was unlikely to issue any export permits soon.  Australia, U.S.  ``We've asked Australia. I've also contacted the U.S. because the ambassador has assured us they will help with the supply,'' said Favila, adding that the Philippines was looking at coconut and vegetable flour as potential substitutes for wheat. ``Prices of bread will go up. Either that or the size would shrink.''  Rising food prices and the difficulties in gaining imports pose political and economic challenges for Philippine President Gloria Arroyo, who said this week she was ``leading the charge'' against hoarders.  The U.S. ambassador to the Philippines pledged this week to ensure that the Asian country, a former colony, would be supplied with as much rice as the nation of 91 million needs. The country was ``assured absolutely'' of supply, Kristie Kenney said April 9.  Rice, the staple food for half the world, has doubled in price in the past year as China, Vietnam and India cut sales abroad and the Philippines tried to secure shipments. The price traded at a record $21.60 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade on April 8.  Wheat Record  Wheat futures in Chicago have more than doubled in the past year on forecasts global demand will exceed output for the seventh time in eight years. The contract reached a record $13.495 a bushel on Feb. 27 and traded at $9.355 today.  Philippine inflation accelerated at 6.4 percent in March, the fastest pace in 20 months as food and fuel costs gained. Crude oil traded at a record $112.21 a barrel on April 9.  ``Food inflation could surmount oil prices as the major threat,'' Vishnu Varathan, a regional economist at Forecast Singapore Pte., said in an interview. ``It could spill over to the early part of next year. This would be the making of a storm you wouldn't want to be in, especially with the global slowdown.''  The food-import situation ``would affect inflation,'' Favila said. ``But what good are the numbers if the people are hungry?''  China started to tax wheat exports at a rate of 20 percent this year, according to a Dec. 30 statement from the Finance Ministry. The tax for corn and rice was set at 5 percent.  ``In the early part of the year, people weren't talking about shortage,'' said Joric Nazario, treasurer at Philippine Veterans Bank in Manila. `` Now everybody's talking about it.'

 

Rice jumped to a record as World Bank officials said they are concerned pressure is growing in Thailand, the world's largest exporter, to restrict shipments, worsening a global food crisis.

``If a key exporter like this limits foreign sales, it would be very much like Saudi Arabia reducing oil exports,'' said James Adams, vice president of the bank's East Asia and Pacific department. China, Vietnam, India and Egypt have curbed overseas sales to safeguard domestic supplies and cool inflation......

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aCvvVTLQqyME&refer=home  

Rice Climbs to Record as Wal-Mart Unit Limits Rice Purchases

By Feiwen Rong and Cotten Timberlake
Enlarge Image/Details

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Rice advanced above $25 for the first time as Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sam's Club warehouse unit restricted purchases of some types of rice in the U.S.

The cereal, the staple food for half the world, has more than doubled in the past year as China, Vietnam and India curbed exports to safeguard domestic supplies. Sam's Club limited buying of jasmine, basmati and long-grain white rice to four bags a visit immediately in all U.S. stores where allowed by law, company spokeswoman Kristy Reed said by e-mail.

Consumers have started hoarding rice as supplies shrink. Thailand, which ships one third of the world's exports, may restrict sales, a World Bank official said this week. Wheat, corn and soybeans gained to records this year, spurring social unrest in countries including Haiti and Egypt. ...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aD0s0ARP2tdA&refer=home  

In den USA gibt es bei den meisten Grossisten nur limitiert, wenn überhaupt noch Reis zu kaufen.
Long grain ist total ausverkauft
short grain limitiert
die 20pfund Säcke haben letzte Woche pro Stück 8.59$ gekostet heute (gestern) 15.15$ heisst 75% mehr
gestern haben die Chicago Reis futures 25.07$ pro 100pfund errreicht Schlusskurs 24.32$
viele asiatische Restaurants finden keine Reisvorräte mehr

in verschiedenen ärmeren Emerging countries (Laos, Kambodscha;etc) wird Reis zu Wucherpreisen an der eigenen Bevölkerung vorbei nach China/Indien verkauft......  

 

Globale Nahrungsmittelkrise:
Thailand strebt Gründung eines Reis-Kartells an
02. Mai 12:07

Thailand will seine Macht als wichtigster Reis-Exporteur stärken: Die Regierung plant ein Kartell für das Nahrungsmittel nach dem Vorbild der Opec. In armen Ländern wie den Philippinen geht deshalb die Angst um, berichtet Matthias Breitinger.

Nur vier Buchstaben, und fast jeder weiß, worum es geht: Opec. Die größten Ölförderländer, ein Kartell, das die Preise festlegt. Was nicht ganz stimmt, denn der Preis für Opec-Öl entspricht zumeist nicht dem Ölpreis, der in den Medien üblicherweise genannt wird: der für ein Barrel US-Leichtöl der Sorte West Texas Intermediate.

Nun sollen fast vier identische Buchstaben und damit ein weiteres Kartell auf die Weltbühne kommen – und sie signalisieren, wie wichtig ein anderer Rohstoff neben Öl geworden ist. Orec, die Organization of Rice Exporting Countries, soll das Konglomerat heißen – eine Gruppe der größten Reisexport-Staaten, die versuchen, Einfluss auf den globalen Reismarkt zu nehmen.

Die Idee geht in Thailand schon seit mehreren Jahren um, doch angesichts der kräftig gestiegenen Reispreise in den vergangenen Wochen ist sie nun wieder auf die Agenda von Thailands Premierminister Samak Sundaravej gekommen. Seine Regierung wolle versuchen, zusammen mit Vietnam, Kambodscha, Myanmar – dem früheren Birma – und Laos ein solches Kartell aufzubauen, kündigte Samak in dieser Woche in Bangkok an.

Thailand ist der weltgrößte Reisexporteur mit rund zehn Millionen Tonnen jährlich, Vietnam folgt auf Platz zwei mit etwa der Hälfte dieser Menge. Thai-Reis ist schon heute die Referenzgröße beim Weltmarktpreis, und der ist zuletzt nach oben geschossen. 1000 Dollar kostet inzwischen eine Tonne, fast doppelt so viel wie noch zu Jahresbeginn.

Ohne Thailand geht schon jetzt nichts

Die Planungen für eine Orec sind noch im Anfangsstadium, wie asiatische Medien berichten. Unklar ist allerdings, welche Rolle ein solches Kartell spielen solle und würde. Samak betonte laut der Zeitung «The Nation», man habe nicht vor, wie die Opec zu werden, sondern wolle lediglich eine Gruppe von fünf Ländern bilden, die sich im Reishandel auf dem Weltmarkt gegenseitig helfen – etwa bei der Steigerung der Produktivität.


Angesichts der schieren Liefermenge hat Thailand schon jetzt, auch ohne Orec, eine starke Macht auf dem weltweiten Reismarkt. Zusammen mit Vietnam macht Thailand die Hälfte des globalen Welthandels mit dem Nahrungsmittel aus. Dagegen exportieren zwei der genannten Länder – Kambodscha und Laos – keinen Reis, sie produzieren gerade so viel, dass es für die Einheimischen reicht. Auch Birma führt im Vergleich zu Vietnam und Thailand nur sehr wenig Reis aus.

Thailands Premier ist vor allem daran gelegen, die einheimischen Reisbauern zu stützen – die sich über die kräftig gestiegenen Preise bereits freuen. Thai-Reis wird in diesem Jahr auf dem Weltmarkt noch wichtiger werden als ohnehin schon, denn andere Exportländer wie Indien, Vietnam oder Brasilien haben angesichts der momentanen Lebensmittelkrise beschlossen, ihre Ausfuhren zu begrenzen, um die heimische Lieferung sicherstellen zu können. Daher gehen Experten davon aus, dass in diesem Jahr rund 45 Prozent der weltweiten Reisexporte aus Thailand kommen werden gegenüber 31 Prozent im Vorjahr. Allein in den ersten vier Monaten dieses Jahres stieg die aus Thailand exportierte Reismenge um mehr als ein Drittel.

Pläne umstritten

Sollte das geplante Kartell aber wirklich mit Erfolg Einfluss auf den Export und die Höhe der Reispreise nehmen, hätte das weitreichende Folgen für Reisimportländer wie China, Singapur oder die Philippinen und würde die dramatische Lage für viele Arme in Asien verschlimmern. Entsprechend groß sind die Sorgen vor allem auf den Philippinen, wo aus Angst vor möglichen Engpässen die Ankündigung aus Bangkok zum Titelthema der Tageszeitungen wurde. Der Inselstaat arbeitet derzeit daran, seine eigene Reisproduktion zu steigern, um unabhängiger vom Export zu werden. Ziel ist die Selbstversorgung bis 2010.

Die Orec ist allerdings auch in den möglichen Mitgliedstaaten umstritten. Ein vietnamesischer Regierungsvertreter widersprach der Darstellung von Thailands Premier, dass sich die fünf genannten Länder schon «im Grunde» einig über die Bildung des Kartells seien. Auch in Thailand selbst erhält Samak Gegenwind: Der dortige Verband der Reisexporteure hält eine Orec für unpraktisch – es sei unmöglich, Reispreise festzulegen. Ein Agrarökonom in Vietnams Hauptstadt Ho Chi Minh Stadt sagte derweil, die Gründung einer Orec sei schwierig, weil die Interessen der genannten Länder auseinanderliefen

Quelle: Netzzeitung  

Analysts: Thailand's rice cartel goal will face hurdles

Thailand's proposal for an OPEC-style cartel to control rice prices will likely face international opposition and only lead to distortions on the global rice markets at a time when the prices of rice and other food commodities are skyrocketing, analysts said.
Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter, wants to form a rice cartel with four other Southeast Asian countries -- Laos, Burma, Cambodia, and Vietnam -- to acquire more influence over international rice prices, according to media reports Friday.
In the same way that the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sets oil prices, members of the proposed rice cartel would cooperate on prices, thereby wielding their influence.
"Firstly and most importantly, this is not the right time to suggest a cartel," said Arpitha Bykere, an analyst at RGE Monitor
"With the food prices going so high, the World Bank and the United Nations have suggested it's becoming such a big crisis," Bykere said. "The international organizations will oppose this [a rice cartel]."
World Bank President Robert Zoellick has warned that high food prices are threatening recent hard-won gains in overcoming global poverty and malnutrition. The United Nations World Food Program has said that high food prices are creating "a silent tsunami" threatening to plunge more than 100 million people on every continent into hunger.
Soaring prices for agricultural commodities, including rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans, have stirred popular discontent and demonstrations around the world.
In response, Vietnam, India, Egypt, and Cambodia have imposed bans on rice exports. Thailand, the top rice exporter accounting for a third of global exports, is currently not banning or restricting rice sales.
Rice prices have tripled this year, with Thailand's benchmark 100% Grade B white rice soaring above $1,000 a ton for the first time last month, according to media reports. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, rough rice futures have surged over 95% in the last 12 months.
A rice cartel?
A spokesman for the Thai government said that the prime ministers of Thailand and Burma discussed the cartel idea on Wednesday, the BBC reported Friday.
Cambodia has expressed support for the idea of a rice cartel in the past and Laos has indicated it would seriously consider the idea, the BBC said.
However, Vietnam officials were quoted by The Bangkok Post newspaper rebutting Thailand's claim that a rice cartel was close and saying that Vietnam hasn't made any official reaction to the proposal yet.
Vietnam is the world's second largest rice exporter. India is the third-largest rice exporting country followed by the United States in fourth place. Asia accounts for about 90% of global rice consumption.
"Thailand, being the largest exporter of rice, would be in a position to take advantage of the current situation [of soaring rice prices]," said Divya Reddy, an analyst at the Eurasia Group. "It makes sense for them to take the lead."
However, "I don't see it working successfully in the near term," Reddy said about the proposal to form a rice cartel. "There would be huge incentive for countries to take their own measures to deal with the problem [of soaring prices]."
Bykere of RGE Monitor pointed out that there are political disagreements and different political structures in Southeast Asia that might make it difficult to form a cartel.
For example, Thailand is a constitutional monarchy, Burma is ruled by a brutal military junta, Vietnam and Laos are communist states, and Cambodia is a young multi-party democracy.
"More importantly, their economic policies are different," Bykere said. "There is very low probability of these countries agreeing."
Also, Thailand and Vietnam are doing better economically than their much poorer neighbors Burma, Cambodia and Laos. A rice cartel would differ from OPEC, because OPEC countries have certain oil reserves, while rice harvests depend on weather conditions, Bykere said.
A cartel would distort rice prices, thereby hurting a big number of consumers both in the rice-exporting countries and globally, Bykere.
"If they set high prices, it would only benefit the farmers in these five countries," Bykere said. "Consumers within and outside the countries would suffer from high rice prices. All the other Asian and African countries will oppose it."
The Philippines, the world's biggest rice importer, has objected to the idea of a rice cartel, with Edgardo Angara, chairman of its senate committee on agriculture, saying that a cartel "will create an oligopoly and it's against humanity," the BBC reported Friday.
The president Thailand's Rice Exporters Association has also criticized the proposal, saying that "you cannot control farmers growing or not growing rice. It's not like oil."
The USA Rice Federation, an advocacy group for the rice industry, didn't have an immediate comment on Thailand's idea of forming a rice cartel in Southeast Asia.




 

Rice Slumps by Limit as Cambodia Lifts Ban on Overseas Sales

Rice futures tumbled by their daily limit for a second straight session as producers lifted or eased export bans, alleviating concerns that global supplies may not meet demand.

Cambodia will lift a ban on exports as the country has enough supplies to meet domestic demand, the Financial Times reported today, citing Prime Minister Hun Sen. Vietnam and India said earlier this month they may remove or ease export curbs.

The staple for half the world, which reached a record $25.07 on the Chicago Board of Trade on April 24, fell as much 50 cents. The record prices, including palm oil and wheat, have stoked concern about shortages and caused riots from Haiti to Egypt.

``The Cambodian news has dampened market sentiment,'' Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst with Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co., said by phone today. ``With major producers in Southeast Asia bracing for harvesting bumper crops in the next couple of months, the global market see more supplies.''

Rough rice for July delivery fell as much as 2.5 percent to $19.85 per 100 pounds, and traded at that level at 10:00 a.m. Singapore time. The price is still 88 percent higher than a year ago. The Chicago market, which fell 50 cents on May 23, was closed yesterday for a public holiday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=azmhvzX_BDvI&refer=home  

in den Medien wegen des Anstieges diskutiert wurden, hätte man direkt shorten müssen...
kann man das noch wagen...?
                                  greetz C_P

Poor harvests have helped fuel a global shortage of rice

Supermarket chain Lidl has rationed rice sales in all its UK stores amid worldwide shortages of the food.

The company said it had restricted purchases to "family volumes" - a maximum of 20kg - to stop traders buying up the product in bulk.

Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's confirmed they were not rationing rice.

A rice shortage after a number of rice-producing nations limited exports to secure domestic supplies has pushed up the global price of the crop.

Lidl - which has more than 380 British stores - is limiting customers to two 10kg bags where these are sold, or five 1kg packs elsewhere.

The firm said it wanted to ensure that families could buy rice without any restrictions.

'No problems'

Tesco said it had limited customers to two packs of rice at its Hamilton branch in Leicester for two weeks, but that there were no longer restrictions at any of its stores.

A spokesman said: "We don't have any problem with supply."

The Financial Times reported that Morrison's store at Freemans Park, also in Leicester, was restricting rice to six bags per customer but the company told the newspaper that it was not limiting sales.

Portuguese newspaper Publico reported this week that Lidl had lifted its limit of 10kg of rice per customer in the country.

The global rice shortage has been caused by poor harvests, increased demand in growing economies, and hoarding in the expectation of further price rises.  

Chaos auf dem Reismarkt

von Max Borowski (Berlin)
Die Preisbildung ist völlig aus den Fugen geraten: In einem Teil der Welt ist das Getreide Luxusgut, in den Anbauländern wird es immer billiger. In Thailand erhalten die Bauern wieder höhere Subventionen.
Der Weltmarkt für Reis folgt derzeit seinen eigenen Regeln. Noch während in Rom Staats- und Regierungschefs aus aller Welt darum rangen, eine Hungerkrise wegen steigender Nahrungsmittelpreise zu vermeiden, kündigte Thailands Premierminister Samak Sundaravej höhere Garantiepreise für heimische Reisbauern an. Für die beginnende Ernte werde mehr als 50 Prozent über dem aktuellen Marktniveau gezahlt, versprach der Regierungschef Ende vergangener Woche seinen unzufriedenen Bauern.

http://www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/aktien/...369361.html?nv=cd-topnews

Die Regierung in Bangkok reagierte auf jüngst wieder gesunkene Reispreise. An den internationalen Märkten ist eine Tonne thailändischer Reis etwa 20 Prozent billiger geworden, nachdem er Ende April ein Rekordhoch von über 1000 $ erreicht hatte. Der Abnahmepreis für die Bauern brach jedoch um mehr als 40 Prozent ein. Zugleich erwarten die Bauern eine Rekordernte von mehr als zehn Prozent über dem Niveau von 2007. Bauernvertreter drohten mit Protesten, sollte die Regierung den Preisverfall nicht stoppen.

Die neueste Intervention der thailändischen Regierung zeigt, wie verzerrt der weltweite Getreidehandel ist. "Paradox" sei die Lage, sagt Joachim von Braun, Chef des Instituts für Internationale Nahrungsmittelpolitik (IFPRI) in Washington. Reiskäufer, insbesondere arme importabhängige Staaten in Afrika sowie Hilfsorganisationen wie das Welternährungsprogramm der Uno (WFP) haben Probleme, weil keine ausreichenden Mengen zu bezahlbaren Preisen auf dem Weltmarkt zur Verfügung stehen. In einigen Reis produzierenden Ländern dagegen befürchten die Bauern bereits wegen fallender Preise um den Lohn ihrer Arbeit. Denn in Erwartung hoher Preise hatten sie - etwa in Thailand, Vietnam und Indien - erheblich mehr Reis angebaut.

Auch in Vietnam beginnt der Abnahmepreis rasant zu fallen: um 13 Prozent allein vergangene Woche. Indien könnte folgen, wenn die Reisbauern dort in einigen Wochen wie erwartet eine Rekordernte einfahren. "Grund für den Preisverfall auf einigen Binnenmärkten ist ein lokales Überangebot", sagt Concepción Calpe, Reisexpertin der Uno-Ernährungsorganisation FAO. Der eklatante Unterschied zwischen Weltmarkt- und lokalen Abnahmepreisen in diesem Jahr geht aber auf politische Entscheidungen zurück: Viele Reis produzierende Staaten hatten während der Explosion der Weltmarktpreise ihre heimischen Märkte durch Exportverbote oder -beschränkungen vom Weltmarkt abgekoppelt.

Damit haben diese Länder zwar ihre eigenen Konsumenten vor hohen Preisen geschützt. Gleichzeitig verhinderten die Exportverbote jedoch, dass die Reisproduzenten vom gestiegenen Weltmarktpreis profitieren, klagen die Experten. "Jetzt müssen die Regierungen ihre Markteingriffe mit noch stärkeren Eingriffen korrigieren", sagt WFP-Deutschlandchef Ralf Südhoff.

Zugleich sind auch die Bauern auf höhere Entlohnung angewiesen, sagt IFPRI-Chef von Braun. Denn sie kämpfen mit steigenden Kosten für Dünger, Saatgut und Benzin. "Die Landwirte haben ja mitbekommen, was auf dem Weltmarkt in den letzten Monaten los war", sagt er. "Das hat bei einigen große, teils überzogene Erwartungen ausgelöst."

Einige Länder haben ihre Exportbeschränkungen zwar bereits gelockert, darunter Thailand, das seine extrem hohen Exportpreise wieder leicht senkte. Viele Regierungen zögern aber, die Reisausfuhren wieder ganz freizugeben, wie Kambodscha das getan hat.

So schätzt der Internationale Getreiderat (IGC), dass trotz erwarteter Rekordernten die Exporte der fünf größten Reisexporteure - Thailand, Indien, Vietnam, USA und Pakistan - in diesem Jahr mit insgesamt knapp 23 Millionen Tonnen auf den niedrigsten Stand seit 2003 fallen werden. Im vergangenen Jahr waren es noch etwa zehn Prozent mehr. "An erster Stelle steht für viele, ihre nationalen Lagerbestände wieder aufzufüllen, die auf ein riskant niedriges Niveau gefallen waren", sagt IFPRI-Chef von Braun.

Daher wird der internationale Reismarkt auch in den kommenden Monaten von hohen Preisen geprägt sein, glaubt FAO-Expertin Calpe. Sie rechnet damit, dass sich der Preis bei etwas 650 $ pro Tonne einpendeln wird. Die Versuchung für Regierungen ist groß, ihre Konsumenten weiter vor diesem Preisniveau zu schützen. Das wird aber ihre Bauern enttäuschen. "Man kann durch einen Markteingriff nicht beides haben, zufriedene Verbraucher und zufriedene Produzenten", sagt Calpe. Wer beides will, muss jedenfalls - wie Thailand - viel Geld in die Hand nehmen.