British Banking Deathmatch
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Eröffnet am: | 19.03.08 14:48 | von: Wubert | Anzahl Beiträge: | 73 |
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Entschuldigt, dieser Thread ist die einfachste Möglichkeit, den Performance-Vergleich dieser Banken ab dem heutigen Zeitpunkt zu beobachten. Zur Erklärung: HSBC und RBS liegen seit 2005 im Depot. Es hätte mehrere Ausstiegsmöglichkeiten gegeben, stattdessen bleiben sie liegen und vermehren sich sogar durch Dividenden-re-investments. Da die RBS mittelerweile zum Tiefstpreis zu haben wäre, überlege ich auch ein wenig aufzustocken, wo doch gerade mal wieder die Kanonen donnern...
Und nun ein paar Charts zur Illustration des stop-motion-fights.
wenn hier in england der immo-crash kommt, sehen wir bei den lokalen banken hier noch viel groessere probleme und kleinere kurse.
viel erfolg
Jetzt neu einzusteigen – und zu erwarten, dieses Jahr noch pfundige Gewinne mitzunehmen – halte ich auch für keine gute Idee.
nicht dass deine RBS dann irgendwann zu einer bear stearns wird.
am gefaehrdetsten in england sind aber sicher erstmal die kleineren wie alliance & leicester, sowie bradford & bingley. Auch wenn HBOS heut so verpruegelt wird, kann ich mir die nicht als pleitekandidat vorstellen - einfach zu gross (wobei das bear stearns auch ist/war)...
Wie ist das mit Aktien statt Dividende?
Fallen dann Gebühren an, wenn man die Aktien nimmt statt der
Dividende?
ERFUNDENE GERÜCHTE
Betrüger schickt Bank-Aktie auf Talfahrt - und macht 130 Millionen Euro Gewinn.
Es ist eine moderne Form von Bankraub: Ein Spekulant soll den Aktienkurs des größten britischen Hypothekenfinanzierers HBOS massiv manipuliert haben. Mit offenbar erfundenen Horrorberichten löste der Händler einen Kurssturz aus - und verdiente daran Millionen. Die Finanzaufsicht ermittelt.
London - Der Fall des französischen Skandalhändlers Jérôme Kerviel ist gerade zwei Monate her, da wird das internationale Bankensystem erneut von einem mutmaßlichen Betrugsfall erschüttert. Britischen Zeitungen zufolge hat ein erfundenes Gerücht den Aktienkurs der britischen Hypothekenbank Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS ) am Mittwoch um 17 Prozent gedrückt. Hintergrund der Attacke ist offenbar betrügerische Spekulation.
Der oder die Täter lancierten am Markt die Falschmeldung, wonach eine Zeitung in Kürze einen Artikel über Probleme bei HBOS veröffentlichen werde. Dieser Bericht werde einen "Kundenansturm auf die Bank" auslösen. In einer E-Mail eines "anonymen Bankers" wurde außerdem verbreitet, HBOS habe um Notfallgespräche bei der Bank of England gebeten - was ebenfalls nicht stimmte.
Die Börse reagierte trotzdem hypernervös. Nach dem Desaster um die amerikanische Investmentbank Bear Stearns und vor dem Hintergrund der allgemeinen Finanzkrise nahmen die Anleger jedes noch so kleine Anzeichen ernst - und verkauften panisch HBOS-Aktien. Auch die Katastrophe um die britische Hypothekenbank Northern Rock war offenbar noch gut in Erinnerung.
HBOS ist eine der größten Banken Großbritanniens und das größte Hypothekeninstitut des Landes. Jedes fünfte Darlehen im Königreich wird von dem Geldhaus abgewickelt. Laut "Telegraph" verwaltet es Einlagen von 240 Milliarden Pfund (305 Milliarden Euro).
Der Kurssturz um 17 Prozent bedeutete für die Bank einen Wertverlust von mehr als drei Milliarden Pfund (3,8 Milliarden Euro). Auch die Aktienkurse anderer Banken gerieten am Mittwoch in Mitleidenschaft, der gesamte FTSE-100-Index trudelte ins Minus.
Entsprechend schnell reagierte das HBOS-Management. Das Gerücht sei "unbegründet und böswillig", teilte es am Mittwoch mit. Die Attacke sei eine "moderne Form von Bankraub". Auch die Bank of England sah sich zu einer Stellungnahme gezwungen. Kernaussage: Keine einzige große Bank in Großbritannien sei in Schwierigkeiten.
Die HBOS-Aktie erholte sich daraufhin wieder. Doch genau darauf hatten es der oder die Täter offenbar abgesehen. Durch Kauf und Verkauf von HBOS-Papieren machten sie ein Vermögen. Die Finanzaufsicht FSA, die mittlerweile Ermittlungen aufgenommen hat, beziffert den Tagesgewinn eines einzelnen Spekulanten laut "Telegraph" auf 100 Millionen Pfund (130 Millionen Euro).
Die Untersuchungen der FSA richten sich demnach gegen "gewissenlose, betrügerische Händler". Namen wurden bisher nicht bekannt. Fest steht nur: Die Ermittlungen könnten die umfangreichsten in der Geschichte der Aufsichtsbehörde werden.
http://www.godmode-trader.de/de/boerse-analyse/...rt,a806549,c20.html
We believe bank sentiment will continue to be driven by market views on:
(1) The potential for another Northern Rock or Bear Stearns among the pack, and
(2) the earnings impacts of the liquidity crunch.
Given the market reception to UBS' rights issue, recent risk index rallies and central bank interventions we are not at all surprised to see relief over the first issue and expect further intermittent bouts of short covering. But we believe that the second issue is far, far, far from being reflected in current consumer behaviour, house prices and impairments.
We expect the UK banks will lend less often and sell assets rather than raise fresh equity, whatever the reception to the UBS rights issue. Though this runs counter to the likely wishes of the central bank and regulator, without a significant leg down in risk asset prices, we can't see the catalyst for forced preemptive capital increases. With risk asset prices recently rallying somewhat - though still significantly down QoQ in 1Q07 - there is room for continued relief that the UK is unlikely to be the site of another Northern Rock or Bear Stearns, in our view.
We see Nationwide's move to take two year tracker mortgages to a 7.1% APR on Thurs 27 March as a watershed event. The UK's second largest mortgage lender was, according to a spokesman, acting to stem the overwhelming volume of loan applications of customers apparently unable to find finance elsewhere. We believe few UK borrowers other than those who are currently looking for a mortgage will have pondered the consequence of 7%+ mortgages. A move from 4.25% to 7.1% amounts to the equivalent to a 13% pay cut to the average home mover from 2007, for example. We do not believe current consumer data captures the knock-on impacts of the liquidity crunch even if conditions continue to improve.
Our top picks are Lloyds TSB and Barclays, and we have reduced our 2008 earnings forecasts for HBOS by 8% today to reflect the expected impact of higher funding costs on the Retail margin.
* Lloyds TSB
Lloyds TSB is a key DB pick. Its strong funding base, gathered through 2,200 branches (Barclays 1733, HBOS 1320) is a competitive advantage which will allow it to capture wider margin, higher quality lending in the current environment, with further upside from cost-control across the group, in our view. At 7.8x 2008 EPS with a 8.5% dividend we regard the share as too cheap. Buy, TP 600p.
* Barclays
We believe that market fears over Barclays' capital base are overdone, though the payment of a 10% higher 2007 dividend, reiteration of unchanged capital targets and acquisition of Expobank should have helped. At 5.9x 2008 EPS and with a 8.2% dividend yield, we regard the share as good value: if we place BGI and Wealth on 12x earnings and the rest of the bank on a 20% discount to the European average multiple, investors are getting BarCap for 1.8x 2009 earnings. Buy, TP 700p.
Britain's second largest bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, is expected to ask shareholders for up to £12bn of extra cash to improve its financial position.
Several newspapers are reporting that RBS will raise the funds by selling shares to existing investors.
The global credit crunch has meant banks worldwide are keen to shore up their capital positions - and it is thought others may follow RBS's move.
RBS, owner of NatWest, Ulster Bank and insurer Direct Line, has not commented.
In a statement, it would only confirm that it would give a trading update next week as planned. The update is due ahead of its annual meeting on Wednesday.
Analysts stressed that this was not something that should worry people with accounts at any RBS banks.
"This is not a customer issue, it's a shareholder issue," said Justin Urquhart Stewart from Seven Investment Management.
Takeover move
RBS shares fell 2.4% in late trading on Thursday as rumours of a rights issue began to circulate.
But the shares then opened up 3.9% on Friday, with other banking shares also rising.
Barclays rose 2.3%, Alliance & Leicester 2.1% and HBOS 2.0%.
Cash reserves at RBS were stretched by its leading role in last year's takeover of the Dutch bank ABN Amro.
"Banks have to retain a certain cushion of cash relative to the amount of risk on their balance sheet," said Alex Potter, banking analyst at Collins Stewart.
"Having spent the best part of 70bn euros ($111bn; £56bn) last year on the biggest bank in Holland, they now have the smallest cushion relative to risk on their balance sheet of any bank in Europe."
Other banks
RBS is unlikely to be the only bank considering going to the market for extra capital.
Bradford and Bingley denied widespread reports at the weekend that it was planning to raise money in the same way.
Heads of many of Britain's biggest banks, including RBS, had a meeting at Downing Street on Tuesday to discuss the continuing effects of the credit crisis.
The Bank of England is considering a plan to start accepting UK mortgage-backed securities in return for government bonds in an attempt to get banks lending to each other again, which in turn should ease up lending to individual borrowers.
Analysts say that while a rights issue is most likely to be seen as a prudent, rather than desperate, move by RBS, it will also represent a U-turn for the bank's chief executive, Sir Fred Goodwin, who had previously insisted the bank did not need to tap shareholders for more cash.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7353774.stm
Firmenschild der Royal Bank of Scotland (Quelle: picture-alliance/dpa) vergrößernFehlen der RBS Milliarden?
Normalerweise sind die Börsen "not amused", wenn Unternehmen ankündigen, dass sei sich neues Geld beschaffen müssen. Die Reaktionen auf das Gerücht, wonach die Royal Bank of Scotland Milliarden braucht, fielen aber anders aus. Die Aktie notiert in London stark im Plus. Analysten kommentieren, dass diese Kapitalerhöhung nicht unerwartet kommen würde. Dieser Schritt sei überfällig.
Was mehrere englische Medien berichteten, war, dass die Royal Bank of Scottland umgerechnet etwa 12,5 Milliarden Euro über die Ausgabe von Bezugrechten einsammeln wolle und damit ihre Kapitalbasis zu verbessern.
Die Bank lehnte es ab, diese Spekulationen zu kommentieren, und verwies auf eine Mitteilung zur Kapitalausstattung, die am kommenden Mittwoch veröffentlicht werden soll.
Was fehlte, war ein eindeutiges Dementi. Zwar hatte die RBS in der Vergangenheit vehement bestritten, eine Kapitalerhöhung zu benötigen. Analysten glauben jedoch, dass die Bank dringend Geld braucht, und eine Kapitalerhöhung unumgänglich ist.
Der Schatten von ABN Amro
Zum einen belastet die Finanzmarktkrise die Bank. Bislang hat die Royal Bank of Scotland eine Summe von zwei Milliarden Euro abschreiben müssen. Das ist im Vergleich zu anderen Banken nicht viel. Zusätzlich wird die RBS aber belastet durch die 71 Milliarden Euro teure Übernahme der niederländischen Bank ABN Amro. Die RBS hatte 2007 ein Konsortium von drei Banken angeführt, das den Bieterwettkampf um ABN Amro erfolgreich gegen die Barclays Bank für sich entschieden hatte.
Was eine Kapitalerhöhung außerdem sinnvoll erscheinen lässt, ist die im europäischen Vergleich äußerst geringe Eigenkapitalausstattung der Bank. Sollte die RBS weitere Milliarden wegen der Finanzmarktkrise abschreiben müssen, könnte dies wegen der fehlenden Kapitalausstattung zu einem großen Problem werden.
Vorstand müsste sich rechtfertigen
Dass der Kurs der RBS am Freitag trotz der möglichen Kapitalmarktmaßnahme kräftig in die Höhe geht, erklären sich einige Bankenbeobachter damit, dass der Aktienkurs seit Jahresbeginn schon 18 Prozent an Wert verloren habe und eine Kapitalerhöhung bereits eingepreist gewesen sei.
Endlich ist es raus, werden sie sich angesichts des Gerüchts gedacht haben. Das Management der Bank wird sich jedoch rechtfertigen müssen. Bisher hat der Vorstand, vor allem RBS-Chef Fred Goodwin, es rundheraus bestritten, dass seine Bank eine Kapitalerhöhung benötige. Sollte die Bank nächste Woche die Ausgabe von neuen Bezugrechten tatsächlich bekannt geben, könnte dies in den Augen der Beobachter Goodwin das Amt kosten.
http://boerse.ard.de/content.jsp?key=dokument_287936
Even so, Sir Fred was convinced that RBS would be able to absorb without too much difficulty its part of the acquisition, for which it forked out £10bn of cash. After all, he had done so successfully before with RBS's transformational purchase of NatWest in 2000.
Both times, RBS crunched its equity tier one ratio as low as regulators would allow. This time, it went down to 4.25pc. The UK average is 5.5pc and the European average is 6.5pc. The rule of thumb is that core tier one should not drop below 4pc and should it do so remedial measures are required.However, Sir Fred reckoned the bank was so cash generative it would be able to rebuild its capital ratio by one percentage point a year. Asset sales, such as the potential £3.5bn disposal of Angel Trains, would help in the meantime.
But he had not accounted for the severity of the credit crunch. Analysts have slashed their profit expectations for RBS, like the other banks, by about 20pc this year and Sir Fred has made no secret that life is more difficult than anyone had anticipated.
In such testing times, weak banks are punished. RBS shares have underperformed those of its peers on fears that it will be less able to withstand the looming downturn. Every sub-prime provision erodes the capital base further, raising the prospect of regulatory intervention and a cut in the bank's credit rating, which in turn would make funding more expensive.
An emergency capital raising under such circumstances would be a drastic measure - leading to asset firesales or a very expensive rights issue. At least one shareholder told chairman Sir Tom McKillop in January that they wanted the bank to launch a pre-emptive rights issue to improve the capital ratio. However, the price, they said, needed to be Sir Fred's resignation......
ABN not only cost RBS the acquisition price but it saddled Sir Fred with additional sub-prime problems. Some £900m of RBS's £2.4bn writedown came from the Dutch bank. In total, according to Credit Suisse, RBS now has £32.7bn of credit market assets at risk of further writedowns, with analysts now expecting a further £1bn to be announced next week.
Credit Suisse also calculated the goodwill associated with the ABN acquisition at £23.3bn, which may also be impaired.
The result of the provisioning will be to eat further into RBS's weak capital base - a position Sir Fred was happy to take in the belief that he would be able to rebuild it this year.
Going cap in hand to shareholders is effectively an admission that he was too aggressive and got it wrong.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/...4/18/ccrbs118.xml
Royal Bank of Scotland wird 5 Mrd GBP abschreiben - BBC
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Die Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS) wird einem Medienbericht zufolge in der kommenden Woche Abschreibungen von rund 5 Mrd GBP bekannt geben. Dies berichtet der Radiosender "BBC" am Freitagabend ohne eine Nennung von Quellen. Das liege dann am oberen Ende der Analystenerwartungen und sei ein "Rekordverlust" für eine britische Bank im Zusammenhang mit einem Subprime-Engagement.
Eine Sprecherin der RBS wollte den Bericht nicht kommentieren und verwies lediglich auf eine Pressemitteilung der Bank vom Freitag. Demnach will die RBS in der kommenden Woche wie geplant einen Zwischenbericht veröffentlichen.
===
Webseite: http://www.bbc.com
RBS announced the intention to raise 12bn of equity by rights issue.
The issue of 11 shares for every 18 shares held is priced at a 46% discount to yesterday's closing price. The group announced risk asset writedowns of 4.9bn, the intention to pay the interim dividend in shares and plans to sell assets (including RBS Insurance) to raise another 4bn of tier 1 capital.
*Capital targets are still a stretch
RBS has revised its tier 1 target range from 7 - 8% to 7.5% - 8.5% and instituted a core tier 1 ratio target of 6%. However, immediately after the rights issue we expect RBS will have a core tier 1 ratio of 5.2% (much the same as Barclays) and will only reach 6.1% by year end if the group sells RBS Insurance. Meanwhile, our current 2009 EPS forecast would fall to 45.1p as a consequence of the rights issue, placing the stock on 6.8x 2009 EPS compared to the ex-rights price of 307p. Assuming management are successful in selling RBS Insurance, and adding in the share issuance from the interim dividend, sees EPS fall to 40.7p and putting the stock on 7.5x.
*Tough current trading
RBS's trading update confirmed "satisfactory" trading at a group level but with Global Banking & Markets clearly struggling in March in particular and with home equity loan credit quality in Citizens deteriorating sharply. With the stock far from cheap, and capital and operational concerns likely to remain, we are cautious on the prospects for a sharp improvement in the RBS share price. Hold.
*Trading update: Slower volumes, lower realisations, rising impairments
HBOS' trading update predictably talks of slowing volumes, difficult margin conditions and rising impairments. Mention is also made of lower corporate realisations (~12% of our current 08 profit forecast) and difficulties in Irish and Austrailian businesses stemming from the global financial turmoil. Downgrades to consensus earnings seem likely but the scale of these is hard to discern before the 9am analyst meeting.
*Strong capital base and relatively cheap - But how cheap?
With HBOS expecting to put 970m of the charge through the P&L, pro forma core and total tier 1 ratios should be ~6.9% and ~8.8% respectively, dealing with solvency as an issue for HBOS, we believe.
28% EPS dilution leaves the stock trading at 6.1x our 2009 EPS estimates and at 1.2x tangible book value per share. We expect substantial pressure on earnings forecasts to keep long-only investors cautious (given the likelihood of further deteriorating credit conditions), but think it will become increasingly difficult to justify maintaining short positions.
Quelle: Deutsche Bank Research
als ich diese Überschrift gelesen habe. Na, wenn die Finanzmisere für eine Sache gut war, dann für den humoristischen Moment. Abgesehen davon erinnert mich die Grafik doch stark an das, was ich mit Posting #2 zeigen wollte, nur hab ich a) Lloyds vergessen und b) konnte man leider je nur einen Vergleichswert eingeben. Ändert aber alles nichts an der Brisanz der Lage – und beweist einmal mehr, dass jungchens Warnung RBS absolut berechtigt war/ist.
Banks
Look Ma, no capital
Apr 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Racy balance-sheets looked great in the go-go years, but not any more
GENERALS stand accused of lacking foresight, inclined as many of them are to be preparing to fight the last war. What then of bankers, who show little sign even of hindsight? Most seem unable to grasp the lessons of the last crisis, still less to anticipate the next one.
Take Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Britain's second-largest bank, which in February merrily increased its dividends to shareholders despite ample warning that the worst of the global credit crunch was yet to arrive. Sir Fred Goodwin, the bank's well-regarded chief executive, confidently told investors that he had “no plans for any inorganic capital raisings or anything of the sort”.
After hubris comes the fall. On April 22nd Sir Fred went cap in hand to shareholders, asking them for £12 billion ($24 billion) in Europe's largest capital-raising to date. He says he may also have to pawn some family silver: he hopes to raise another £4 billion by selling the bank's profitable insurance business.
The cash is needed to rebuild RBS's balance-sheet, which has been strained by fresh write-downs totalling £5.9 billion on its investments in iffy American mortgage loans as well as by its badly timed purchase last year of a large part of ABN Amro, a Dutch bank. The volte-face prompted several large shareholders in RBS to call for Sir Fred's head. He has hung on to his job for now, but his days at the bank look numbered.
At issue is RBS's “core capital”, a cushion composed mainly of shareholders' equity that regulators insist banks hold against bad times. At the beginning of the year this stood at about 4.5%, the lowest of any big European bank and below the 5-6% level that most banks consider a prudent minimum.
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Other big British banks are also sitting on a flatter capital cushion than their rivals in other parts of the world. Analysts at JP Morgan, an investment bank, reckon that British banks should be holding around £37 billion more in capital than they do at the moment.
Among banks that have capital concerns are Barclays and HBOS, which JP Morgan reckons will need £8 billion and £11 billion respectively. Barclays, whose securities business made profits in the first quarter of 2008, may prefer to retain earnings rather than raise fresh cash. But investors' worries about capital adequacy are showing up in share prices. Banks such as flush HSBC and solid Lloyds TSB, which have more capital, have performed far better this year than those that are short of it (see chart).
In good times a racy attitude to capital has helped to make British banks among the most profitable, with enviable returns on equity. In tougher times, however, they look too clever by half.
Title Ex Date Record Date Pay Date Div Rate (p) DRIP acquisition
cost
Final 2007 5 Mar 2008 7 Mar 2008 23 May 2008 23.1
http://www.investors.rbs.com/investor_relations/..._data/dividend.cfm
Die Homepage hilft weiter.
Neueste Deutsche Bank-Analyse:
B&B has announced a 300m rights issue on the basis of 16 shares for every 25 held at 82p per share. This is a 48% discount to last night's closing share price and 36% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price of 129p. This will lead to 39% dilution to our 2009 EPS forecast, placing the share on 9.2x 2009 EPS. Though the additional capital gives B&B an initial tier 1 ratio of around 10% - the top of its new 8-10% target range - we see a high likelihood that its capital ratios will fall from here given the procyclical capital requirements of Basel 2 in a falling house price environment (to which B&B is arguably most exposed, given the high LTV nature of its portfolio).
The 1H08 dividend is to be paid in scrip, whilst the new dividend cover target of 2-2.5x would see us cut our 2009 dividend forecast by up to half.
*Alot can change in month
On 14 April 2008, B&B issued a strong denial that it was planning a rights issue following Sunday Times press coverage that a 300m issue was in the offing: "Contrary to press speculation, Bradford & Bingley announces that it is not intending to issue equity capital by way of a rights issue or otherwise". This announcement, exactly one month later, will naturally prompt questions over the extent to which the outlook for the business has deteriorated over this period. With management claiming in today's statement that trading continues in line with the IMS of 22 April, it seems clear that B&B are preparing for market weakness in 2009 and beyond.
*9.2x 2009 EPS is too high a multiple for B&B
We continue to rate B&B a Sell given the premium rating of 9.2x 2009E EPS (Eurobanks on 8.7x) and relatively high likelihood, in our view, of falling capital ratios and downside risks to earnings.
bin sehr sicher, dass sie dies letztlich doch tun muessen
Barclays derweil auf Rekordtief-Jagd, von RBS ganz zu schweigen.
http://www.hsbc.com/1/PA_1_1_S5/content/assets/...8_notice_of_agm.pdf
HSBC hat im 1.Q08 trotz der Turbulenzen und Abschreibungen mehr verdient als im Vergleichszeitraum letztes Jahr. Zudem gehört HSBC zu den Banken mit der derzeit besten Eigenkapitalausstattung. Das scheint eine gewisse Sicherheit (und somit Kursstabilität) zu geben.
und in meinen augen ist das hier noch nicht zu ende.