Hier geht es um mehr als Öl

YPF - 50%ige Tochter von Repsol. Größter argentinischer Ölförderer.

In die Schusslinie gekommen, da die Angst einer Zwangsverstaatlichung besteht, Argentinien will nicht Öl importieren, wenn mit YPF ein Produzent im eigenen Land existiert. Glaube ich aber nicht daran, dann wäre ARG für die nächsten 50 Jahre vom Kapitalmarkt abgeschnitten, wenn das passiert.... So sind die ein Lacher, YPF alleine nun eine Dividendenrendite von 12% derzeit - und Repsol ist auf die Zahlung angewiesen ;)


Frankfurt (www.aktiencheck.de) - Der Analyst von Independent Research, Sven Diermeier, stuft die Aktie von Repsol (ISIN ES0173516115/ WKN 876845) von "halten" auf "kaufen" hoch.

Die Repsol-Aktie habe im letzten Monat deutlich nachgegeben und gegenüber dem EURO STOXX 50 (ISIN EU0009658145/ WKN 965814) sowie dem STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas (ISIN EU0009658798/ WKN 965879) deutlich underperformed, was die Analysten insbesondere auf die neuen Unsicherheiten in Argentinien zurückführen würden. Demnach erwäge die dortige Regierung einem Medienbericht zufolge eine Verstaatlichung der Repsol-Tochter YPF. Die Analysten würden ein solches Szenario für unwahrscheinlich halten.

Mit den Zahlen für das 3. Quartal 2011 habe der Konzern auf bereinigter Basis weitgehend im Rahmen der Analysten-Erwartungen gelegen. Die Öl- und Gasförderung werde Repsol in den nächsten Jahren im Branchenvergleich überdurchschnittlich ausbauen können, was sich ihres Erachtens entsprechend positiv auf die Gewinnentwicklung sowie die Ausschüttungspolitik auswirken dürfte.

Die Analysten hätten ihre bereinigten 2011er und 2012er EpS-Schätzungen auf Grund des schwachen Downstream-Geschäfts von 1,78 auf 1,60 Euro bzw. von 2,23 auf 2,08 nach unten revidiert.

Bei einem von 25,30 auf 24,80 Euro reduzierten Kursziel votieren die Analysten von Independent Research bei einem deutlichen Aufwärtspotenzial nunmehr mit "kaufen" für die Repsol-Aktie, nach einer Halteempfehlung zuvor. (Analyse vom 17.02.2012) (20.02.2012/ac/a/a)  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-28/...aires-mover-correct-.html

Spannungen gibt es da, weil die Regierung will, dass YPF die Produktion verdoppeln soll - andernfalls drohen sie mit Verstaatlichung  

STXNEWS LATAM-Argentina's YPF sinks again on gov't tension

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   Energy »

Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:25am EST

Shares in Argentina's biggest energy company YPF, controlled by Spanish oil major Repsol, were down nearly 11 percent at 131 pesos per share in midday trade on investor fears the government could take new steps against the company, traders said.

Investors think center-left President Cristina Fernandez could make an announcement related to YPF in her state of the union address to Congress on Thursday.

YPF shares have fallen more than 20 percent this month due to a worsening dispute with the government, and a newspaper report that said some sectors of the administration wanted to renationalize it.

Argentina's MerVal share index was flat overall and shares in Repsol were down 3.7 percent in Madrid.  

YPF and Repsol shares hit the skids
February 29, 2012 7:07 pm by Jude Webber
0 0
Repsol’s elation at another seriously big discovery in Brazil this week was short-lived.
Mounting fears that Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s president, could announce greater intervention in Repsol’s Argentine subsidiary, YPF, on Thursday at the annual opening of Congress have caused its shares to fall off a cliff, wiping more than $4bn off YPF’s value in less than a week. Antonio Brufau, Repsol-YPF’s CEO, is currently in Argentina waiting – like the market – for news.
In early afternoon trade in New York, YPF shares were down nearly 9 per cent – the biggest fall in 2 years – and there was no imminent sign of calm on the horizon.
Meanwhile, a 53 per cent dive in 2011 income announced on Wednesday has done nothing to help the performance of the group’s shares in New York and Madrid. In New York, Repsol’s American Depository Shares slid nearly 5 per cent. In Madrid, the company shares also took a pummelling, down 4.8 per cent.
How likely is it, then, that Fernández will nationalise YPF?
Not very, is the perceived wisdom. Leaving aside the question of where Argentina could find the money – potentially from pensions agency Anses, or central bank reserves, though that would probably be a bad idea for a government which is already scrambling to reduce its outgoings – any such move would be seriously damaging to investor sentiment, and despite a highly heterodox policy mix, Argentina is not Venezuela.
What else could Fernández do, then? Seek to step up government intervention in the company is the probable. “That wouldn’t be off-the-wall in the current climate,” said one YPF source, wryly.
Relations between the government and YPF have gone from chum to glum in recent weeks. Falling out of favour with a government that loves to have enemies and battles to wage is nothing new, but YPF has always been fondly regarded. Indeed, the bad boy in the oil sector has always been Royal Dutch/Shell, which has never recovered favour after trying to put up diesel prices in 2005 and incurring the wrath of then president Néstor Kirchner, who called a Shell boycott.
Yet YPF has been hauled over the coals in recent weeks for allegedly fixing diesel prices in a cartel, distributing hefty dividends and failing to invest either enough, or fast enough, to turn the country’s declining production around.
Some kind of public punishment looks on the cards. Ambito Financiero newspaper mused on Wednesday that YPF could be stripped of concessions in some areas where investment is deemed to have been too paltry – something provincial governors have already threatened. It suggested the government could otherwise seek to declare YPF a public good, in the national interest (as it has done to newsprint), which could pave the way for state intervention. That would require congressional approval, however.
Fernández has wasted no opportunity lately to lament the fact that Argentina is spending a fortune on energy imports. “How can it be,” she asked on Monday, “that we have to import $10bn worth (of fuel) despite having rigs and hydrocarbons fields?” The answer has a lot to do with poor policy.
But heavy-handed intervention could be a death-knell for the very investment in the sector that everyone acknowledges is necessary.
All eyes on Congress on Thursday at 11 a.m. local time (1400 GMT) then.  

... um die Wogen zu glätten

MADRID, March 1 | Thu Mar 1, 2012 12:01pm GMT

(Reuters) - Spain's industry minister flew to Argentina this week to cool a row between the government there and Spanish oil major Repsol, after a report Buenos Aires could seize its local unit to make it increase output.

Two sources close to the ministry said Jose Manuel Soria met his opposite number in the capital.

"The minister was in Buenos Aires on Tuesday and Wednesday and met with his counterpart in the Argentine government to try and calm tensions," said one of the sources.
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On Thursday President Cristina Fernandez is due to speak to Congress in Buenos Aires and media reports suggest she may announce a policy move on oil company YPF, which is majority-owned by Repsol but partly state held.

YPF has been targeted by Fernandez's administration as part of a wider drive to push big energy companies to boost oil and natural gas output as fuel imports soar.

Officials have accused YPF and other oil firms of overcharging for diesel.

A report that some in Fernandez's government would like to renationalise YPF hit its shares late last month.

Critics in the energy sector blame government intervention and political uncertainty for discouraging investment in oil exploration.

Soria's visit coincides with that of Repsol chairman Antonio Brufau. (Reporting by Carlos Ruano; Writing by Nigel Davies; Editing by Fiona Ortiz)  

entschieden ist in Buenos Aires aber noch nix  

 

http://www.wallstreetjournal.de/article/...?mod=WSJDE_latestheadlines

Auf deutsch...  

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/0,1518,827983,00.html

Aber offenbar interessiert das hier niemanden, wie eine argentinische Regierung das Eigentumsrecht willkürlich verletzt, weil Respol nicht bereit ist, in dem Maße wie von Kirchner verlangt in Ölbohrungen zu investieren  

das vor 8 monaten.... ;) jetzt ist der zeitpunkt gekommen und sich den wert mal genauer anzuschauen...

 

YPF ist eigentlich ein perfekter Wert in dieser Zeit.

Ich habe vor einigen Tagen zugeschlagen und werde öfter dazu posten.

Mit einer Sache habe ich bei YPF allerdings ein großes Problem: Die Enteignung von REPSOL vor einigen Jahren durch die linke argentinische Regierung.
Hierzu gibt es auch noch anhängige Klagen in den USA.

Mal sehen…  

Seit meinem Einstieg ist die Aktie knapp 25% im Minus.

Argentinien steht mal wieder mit dem Rücken zur Wand.