Welches Fiber-Optic Unternehmen ??
ich wuerde mir gerne Aktien eines Fiberoptic Unternehmens zulegen. Welches wuerded Ihr mir empfehlen ? Wie sieht es mit Corning, Lucent ,JDS Uniphase und Nortel aus ? Welches ist das aussichtsreichste Investment ?
Vielen Dank schon einmal fuer die hoffentlich zahlreichen Einschaetzungen
Gruesse Ami
Monday August 28, 2000 (4:28 pm ET)
An Embarrassment of Riches for Fiber Optic Stocks
By Ari Bensinger, S&P Telecom Equipment analyst
NEW YORK, Aug. 28 (Standard & Poor's) - One of the fastest growing segments of the communication industry is optical networking. By some estimates, Internet usage is doubling every six months. Additionally, the demand for bandwidth is increasing with the rising popularity of richer multimedia applications.
To handle this insatiable demand, telecom service providers are buying optical technologies that allow data to be transported in greater volume and over longer distances than current electrical technologies. According to the MultiMedia Telecommunications Association (MMTA), spending on fiber optic equipment is projected to rise from $12.2 billion in 1999 to $28 billion in 2003, a compound annual growth rate of 23 percent.
Since the technology is relatively new, there are only a few suppliers of optical cable, equipment and/or components in this rapidly growing field. This dearth has led to impressive valuations for these companies' stocks. But, unlike some high-flying Internet companies, the optical component makers are actually making money, and their typical business model boasts gross margins above the 50% level and net margins in the 20% range.
In fact, to increase shareholder value, some of the large-cap optical network system makers are trying to separate their component operations. Lucent Technologies (LU) plans to spin off their microelectronics business by December, and Alcatel ADS (ALA) is creating a tracking stock for its optical business. Nortel Networks (NT) was recently in talks with Corning Inc (GLW) to sell its optical-parts unit for more than $100 billion, and is considering spinning the unit off.
While valuations of many firms that sell optical components may seem outlandish, the importance of this market segment cannot be overstated. Although fiber-optic cables today are primarily deployed in long-distance networks, many experts predict that in the future, fiber will be installed closer to homes and businesses. As fiber moves to the edge of the network, the demand for optical components could easily surpass any previous forecasts.
But, how do you pick a company in which to invest? Obviously, with product demand not being an issue, execution becomes the defining variable that will distinguish the leaders from the pack. Below we discuss some key success factors in the fiber optic component sector.
Production capacity
The component market is supply constrained. As network equipment vendors are unable to keep up with their internal demand for components, they are procuring components from external suppliers and even from their competition. As a result, orders and backlogs for component companies are at record levels - they are shipping everything they can make. To meet the booming demand, component makers are spending billions of dollars to ramp up production capacity by adding square footage and personnel and by making acquisitions. The companies that ramp up production the quickest will thrive in this supply constrained environment.
Manufacturing efficiency
Due to the youth of the optical industry where standards have not been established, new ways of automation have not been invented yet. Optical components are made of many complex materials and product assembly is largely done by hand. Also adding to the problem is that as optical technology progresses, i.e. more channel counts are added, the quantities along with the performance level of the parts increase. The companies that automate their manufacturing procedures first will have a significant competitive advantage over their peers.
Integrating acquisitions
Consolidation is sweeping across the optical industry. It is often more efficient to grow by acquisition rather than internal development. In the ever-changing face of optic standards, time to market is critical. Companies are using their strong currency to acquire promising technologies, bringing that technology to market faster than it would have taken to produce it in house. Acquisitions can also add instant manufacturing capacity. Additional capacity was one of the key drivers that fueled the proposed mega combination of JDS Uniphase Corp (JDSU) and SDL Inc (SDLI). With more consolidation expected, successful integration will be a key factor in assessing the extent of a firm's external growth.
Transition to modules
System equipment makers want to bring their systems to market as quickly as possible, and they want to concentrate on their core competencies of helping carriers run their networks. As such, the trend is shifting towards buying integrated products, or modules, instead of individual components. Component makers will need to broaden their product line internally and externally to benefit from this trend. The move to modules will create a more profitable business model for component makers, as modules retain higher margins than individual components.
Our picks
For now, we expect all the sector participants to prosper in this opportunistic environment. For the long-term, though, our top picks are JDS Uniphase and Nortel Networks, which we believe are best positioned to meet these key success criteria. They each have broad product lines, extensive expansion plans and aggressive acquisition strategies.
28-Aug-2000 16:28:03 (03001353) Copyright 2000 Standard & Poor's Investment
Es waere schoen, von Euch Kommentare zu den hohen Bewertungen der einzelnen Titel zu erhalten. Prinzipiell habe ich immer einen Anlagehorizont von ueber einem Jahr, so dass ich an Trades nicht interessiert bin, sondern an einer stetigen Aufwaertsentwicklung der Werte im Depot :) .
Ciao Ami
Daneben übrigens noch Lightpath (WKN 905448, LPTH). Ist aber wesentlich spekulativer.
Aber einen Favoriten daraus auswählen...?
Zum Hintergrund Optical Networks:
http://www.redmailorder.com/boerse/mag519.htm
Zu Lightpath (Vorsicht spekulativ!):
http://community-2.webtv.net/@HH!59!29!63E01F08DB2C/Bdags/doc/
The bigger they grow, the harder they fall. The shares of Nortel Networks could be ready to tumble… (Instock, New York)
By K.C. Grainger
New York City - Aug 30 - Nortel Networks (NYSE:NT $80 7/8) is one of the world’s foremost leaders in supplying equipment and services for voice telephony and data transmission on the Internet. It is now the preeminent company of Canada. Based on market capitalization, it is huge, even by American company size standards, with a market value of over $200 billion. The shares are the largest percentage of the Canadian Standard and Poor’s 60 Index, and its price movement often determines the direction of the Canadian stock market.
Traders on the Montreal Stock Exchange, who trade the S&P 60 contract, often look at the chart of Nortel before they look at the chart of the S&P 60 contract itself; Nortel’s value makes up over 25% of the entire index.
But now, both technically and fundamentally, there is evidence that Nortel’s price gains could mostly be over. The company is now barely profitable, although revenues for the year 2000 will be over $21 billion. That’s only about 10% of the value of their market capitalization -- far too little in the way of profits to carry this high a valuation for a prolonged period of time.
This week, I observed that 29 brokerage firms are recommending purchase of Nortel, 3 firms are suggesting that it should be held and one brave firm is actually recommending selling it. Knowing the pitiful track record of the brokerage industry, I dare say that the sell is probably the best choice.
I also carefully examined the insider transactions of Nortel which reports on the purchases and sales of Nortel common stock by their largest shareholders, officers and directors. I checked the most recent transactions from the last six months. Every single one of 79 total transactions was a sell or a registration to sell stock. Not one transaction was a purchase by the "legal insiders." Thus, insiders are heavily to the sell side and the brokerage houses are heavily to the buy side. Between the two, who has the better track record? The insiders, of course.
The recent story of this superb, but now very overpriced corporation is typical of big stock winners. In the first half of 1999, Nortel was selling at under $20 a share. As the company gained recognition in telecommunications, high technology and the Internet, major brokerage houses started recommending the stock. Naturally, the bulk of the recommendations came after the price had already more than doubled. As the company became a bigger part of the Canadian market, more fund managers in Canada had to own Nortel, which brought more buying.
Based on momentum, it still has trading potential for another move up. And if the market can move up above the 1600 S&P 500 level, which I do expect, Nortel could perform well. But when it corrects down, it could be painful. The charts suggest that it will move back into the $50-$60 a share range later. Except for trading purposes, Nortel is not a stock to buy and put away for the long term at its present price levels. It’s a great company, but it’s terribly overvalued
P.S.: Andere Anregungen nehme ich natuerlich auch gerne an
Bezüglich der Bewertung halte ich immer noch Alcatel für ganz interessant, wenn auch deren Fokussierung auf Fiber Optics nicht ganz so scharf ist. Für Alcatel spricht die Nähe zu den europäischen Kunden, wobei in Europa vermutlich in Sachen UMTS mehr investiert wird und USA als Markt bei den Fiber Optics für den schnelleren Internetzugang führend sein dürfte.
Verwundert hat mich auch, daß Siemens bei den Übersichten nicht aufgetaucht ist. Ist deren Fiber Optic Business wirklich so klein?
Schließlich will ich auf ein recht junges Fiber Optic Zertifikat verweisen, das von der Risikostreuung sicher interessant ist, aber auch nicht die m.E. ideale Zusammensetzung aufweist. Dresdner Bank fibre optics Zert basket Wkn 701305. Wenn einer einen link für diese Zertifikat findet, bitte stellt ihn hier rein. Ich habe keinen link (z.B. für die genaue Zusammensetzung) gefunden.
Kennt jemand einen Fond der auf diesem Gebiet stark ist?
Gruß furby
Gruss Ami
Gruß
hugo
gruss spürnase
Ich habe mir kürzlich ein paar Stück Lucent für 47€ gekauft (hätte man auch etwas billiger haben können, aber parallel dazu habe ich Agilent für 44,25€ gekauft, und das entschädigt ja wohl genug). Die haben da eine Meldung rausgebracht, daß im Verhältnis 12:1 für jede Aktien von Avaya ausgegeben werden, Stichtag ist der 20.Sep. und die Ausgabe erfolgt am 30.Sep., wenn ich mich nicht irre. Also eventuell eine durch 12 teilbare Menge ordern, andernfalls wird bar entschädigt.
Hoffe, damit bei der Wahl geholfen zu haben, Braunbär
TyCom Announces $100-Million Order From Asia Global Crossing
Capacity to be Upgraded on Asia Global Crossing's Pacific Crossing Cable System to Meet Regional Demand
PEMBROKE, Bermuda, Aug. 24 /PRNewswire/ -- TyCom Ltd. (NYSE: TCM BSX: TCM) today announced that it has been notified by Asia Global Crossing of their intention to proceed with an upgrade for their Pacific Crossing Cable System (PC-1) valued at approximately 100 million. The upgrade will increase the system's capacity to meet growing demand in the Pacific region.
PC-1 is a 21,000-kilometer ring network that was developed and installed by TyCom, with the first segment connecting Washington state and Japan being placed into service in late 1999. Plans call for the upgrade to occur in three phases, with the first phase to be completed by year end. PC-1 is owned and operated by Pacific Crossing Ltd., a subsidiary of Asia Global Crossing Ltd.
"We are pleased to receive this order, which underscores the significant revenue opportunity in the bandwidth capacity upgrade market," stated Neil Garvey, President and CEO of TyCom. "We've now received three capacity upgrade orders in recent months, having a total value of over 240 million. These orders confirm that actual demand for undersea capacity is outpacing the demand forecasted by the industry. At the same time," he added, "we continue to grow our revenue significantly from new system sales, as shown by the recent contract awards for the 1-billion C2C System and the 170-million Australia-Japan Cable System."
"We believe that these developments underscore the trend toward continuous investment in undersea networks and highlight the market opportunity for TyCom," Garvey continued, "and that the recent acceleration in system upgrades and orders for new systems indicates that the demand for high capacity undersea networks remains strong. As both a bandwidth provider and network supplier, TyCom is well-positioned to leverage both opportunities in the market."
ABOUT TYCOM LTD.
TyCom Ltd. (NYSE: TCM BSX: TCM), is one of the world's largest providers of advanced broadband communications capacity, systems and services. TyCom is a leading fully integrated supplier of transoceanic fiber optic systems, is the recognized world leader in undersea technology development and application, and operates one of the world's largest fleets of cable ships. To meet growing demand, the Company is also deploying and selling capacity on the TyCom Global Network. TyCom's parent company is Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC LSE: TYI BSX: TYC). For more information on TyCom, visit http://www.tycomltd.com.
ABOUT TYCO INTERNATIONAL
Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC LSE: TYI BSX: TYC) is a diversified manufacturing and service company. Tyco is the world's largest manufacturer and servicer of electrical and electronic components and undersea telecommunications systems and the world's largest manufacturer, installer, and provider of fire protection systems and electronic security services. It has strong leadership positions in disposable medical products, plastics, and adhesives and is the largest manufacturer of flow control valves. The Company operates in more than 80 countries and had 1999 revenues of 22.5 billion
und ne tolle Seite www.submarinesystems.com mit schwimmenden Fischen,ist ne Tochter von Tyco,ziemlich riesige Firma .Heute plus 8,8%
Chart und US-KURSE Yahoo!FinanceUSA unter Eingabe von LPTH
Fortsetzung folgt
Gruß,
Atlantis
LIGHT PATH ist ein sog."Start-up-Unternehmen" und wird in den nächsten Jahren zu den High-Flighern zählen.
Die US-Hightech-Schmiede ist im Besitz von 22 revolutionärer Patenten und einer bahnbrechender Technologie im Bereich der Lasertechnik.
Damit ist ein entscheidender Durchbruch gelungen, optische Systeme im Bereich des Telekomunikations- und Internetmarkt zur Verfügung zu stellen.
Zuletzt wurde GELTECH in Orlando Florida zu 100% übernommen. Auch Geltech ist in Besitz von 23Patenten und 29fremder.
Große Unternehmen wie ANTEC kooperieren bereits mit LIGHT PATH im Bereich hybrieder fiber/coaxial Breitbandtechnologie und LIGHT PATH rüstet weiter auf!
Seit dem Einbruch im April, geht er für diesen revolutionären Titel im Kurs wieder aufwärts.
Chart- technisch gilt es jetzt den Höchstkurs von 70Euro zu überwinden. Nach einer kurzen Konsolidierung auf hohem Niveau, wird dieses Vorhaben sicherlich gelingen. Ist diese Hürde erst mal übersprungen, rücken die Magischen 100Euro immer näher ins Blickfeld.
Mit freundlichen Grüßen.
Atlantis
also nen Umwandler Coax/Glas gibbet schon imaginäre nicht näher beschriebene Patente und Höchstkurse lassen eher auf ne revulutionäre Geldweggeschichte als auf Reibach schließen,für nicht Fernmeldetechniker/ ITprofis ists schlauer mit JDS/Corning/Nortel/Lucent wenig Knete zu machen als auf Patente/Start-ups zu setzten,wobei das Geld den Weg Deiner Namensgebungsinsel macht
blaubärgrüsse
Meine Anlage Strategie ist es, Trends früh zu erkennen und Junge Unternehmen mit guten Management mir ins Depot zu legen(sog. FINGER WEG Aktien). Deine Strategie ist es diese Unternehmen erst in 2-3Jahren zu ordern mit dem Wissen sehr viel an Kursteigerung versäumt zu haben und die Zukunft ebenfalls nicht zu kennen. Aber wie steht es im Forum, auch andere Meinungen sind zu respektieren!
Ein erfolgreicher Börsianer.
Atlantis
PS: Ich hoffe, Deine Namengebung bezieht sich nicht auf Deinen Alkoholspiegel. Auch dass “ LIEBER“ laß bitte weg, ich gehe weder in den Kindergarten, noch bin ich schwul!
lucent ins depot lege ?
- oder noch etwas warten ?
möchte auf sicht 2Jahre einen ausrüster im Depot haben ..
danke und gruß jopius
oder besser in USA (wg. Kursschwankungen euro/US$) kaufen -
ehrlich gesagt hab ich noch nie gemacht ..
was meinst du ?
Jopius
Hier scheint sich eine Neigung des Boardes zu Lucent (bei den Big Playern) anzudeuten. Der Wert hat dieses Jahr schon mehr als einmal enttaeuscht. Ist es in Euren Augen trotzdem der aussichtsreichte Wert unter den grossen Titeln? Wenn ja, worin liegen die Vorteile z.B. gegenueber
JDS Uniphase ? Der Preis z.Zt. allein (etwas ueber dem 52 Wochen Tief) in kann es doch nicht sein, oder ? Auch ich bin prinzipiell an einer mehrjaehrigen Anlage interessiert. Also Lucent als Top Pick von Ariva ??
Danke fuer Eure Tipps und weiteren Erlaeuterungen
Gruesse Ami