Trichet: growth, inflation impact ´will not be neg

Trichet: growth, inflation impact ´will not be negligible´ if oil stays high
hxxp://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/...oticia=1097156300-9e32d306-27620

Trichet: growth, inflation impact 'will not be negligible' if oil stays high BRUSSELS (AFX) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said that if oil prices remain at their current levels, the impact on both global growth and inflation "will not be negligible." Trichet was speaking at a news conference in Brussels following the ECB's decision to hold its key interest rate unchanged at 2.0 pct

Vergleiche Trichet's Kommentar mit dem von der US Fed:

hxxp://www.fxstreet.com/nou/continguts/authorities.asp

William Poole, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President.
Thursday, October 7, 2004 09:26 GMT
Reuters - "I think we're in a pretty solid situation and can look forward to a good long business expansion, provided we don't have any more unforeseen shocks."
**********

Thomas Hoenig, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President.
Thursday, October 7, 2004 09:38 GMT
Reuters - "We have the opportunity to have growth of 3.5 to 4 percent. We have the opportunity to have that growth in an environment where core inflation is less than two percent. As long as oil prices don't get significantly higher than they are now, about $50 a barrel, their likely effects should remain relatively modest."
****************

``The economy is taking this higher level of oil prices in stride,'' Anthony Santomero, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said in a Bloomberg television interview. ``The economy was hurt and slowed down somewhat because of the movements in oil, but we seem to be looking beyond that.''
*****************

In a speech in Washington, Fed Governor Ben S. Bernanke said oil prices ``have to stay up before they become no longer transitory'' and ``we think the economy can accommodate them at the current levels at least as long as they don't rise substantially more.''
****************
``The inflation numbers are looking better,'' Fed Governor Susan Bies told reporters today after a speech to the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. ``We're down from where we were.''
****************
William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview that confidence numbers ``are heavily affected by the flow of news and are not a very good guide to how households are behaving.''

The best measure of confidence is the housing market because of the financial commitment required to buy a house, Poole said. Sales of new homes rose 9.4 percent in August, the Commerce Department reported last week.
***************

Current-account gap no 'asteroid,' official says
The large and growing U.S. current-account deficit isn't an "asteroid heading for the planet," said Assistant Treasury Secretary Randal Quarles on Thursday.

In der Zwischenzeit zurück in die Realität:

Headline´s:

-Crude Oil Rises to $53 on Concern U.S. Supply Won't Meet Winter Demand
-Commodities Index Rises to 23-Year High as Demand Surges for Oil, Metals
-Bank of America Plans to Cut 4,500 Jobs, Pay Severance of $150 Million
-Wal-Mart, U.S. Retailers' Sales Slow a Third Month, Hurt by Gas, Storms
-Bombardier Aerospace Cutting 2,000 Jobs
-IMF fears tight oil supplies could last for years
-Unisys rises on affirmed Q3 outlook, job-cut plans

**********

Die "transitory headwind phase" dauert länger und ist tiefer als irgendjemand erwartet.

Der Ölschock gewinnt an Momentum und der Ölpreis wird in den nächsten Wochen/MOnaten weiter steigen und wird länger oben bleiben als die meisten erwarten.

Öl das Tor zum Gold.