T Bond

 

 

 

The next bull market in stocks won't kick off until the Fed is forced to bail out the US government, Bank of America says

"The US government currently has a debt pile of $31 trillion, and that's expected to soar by more than $20 trillion over the next 10 years. That's $5.2 billion every single day, or $218 million every single hour, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note.

While the trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic were successful in averting a recession over the past three years, that spending produced short-term gains that will eventually lead to long-term pain.

That's because the US government's rising debt pile and growing fiscal deficits will result in higher and higher interest payments as the Fed hikes rates, which influence the yields that must be paid on Treasury bonds.

For nearly two decades up until 2018, a combination of relatively small federal deficits and low interest rates meant that the US government was paying less than 1.5% of its GDP on payments tied to its debt. That figure has since jumped to 1.9%, and BofA hints that it will continue to rise.

"US Federal deficit up to 6.1% of GDP due to fiscal infrastructure spend; at peak of 2000 expansion, US ran fiscal surplus, peak of 2007 expansion deficit was 1% of GDP, peak of last expansion deficit was 2.5% of GDP," Hartnett said.

This represents a clear deterioration in trends that is going to be exacerbated by the eventual surge in debt-servicing payments, and that's where the Fed comes in.

Eventually, according to Hartnett, the Fed will be forced to resort to yield curve control, similar to the Bank of Japan, to "bail out the US government" and help lessen the burden of its surging interest payments.

Yield curve control is a form of monetary policy in which a central bank's bond purchases target long-term maturities to control long-term rates. That contrasts with typical quantitative easing programs in which central banks seek to influence short-term rates.

"And that's when the next great bull market in risk begins," Hartnett said.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/...nment-rates-2023-2  

Not All New Highs Are Bullish

Annual data shows that the Federal government’s cost to service its debt (as a % of GDP) reached its highest level in two decades last year.

Why It Matters: Debt servicing costs were at a generational low just a few years ago. Now persistent inflation is pushing bond yields higher and the latest CBO projections show federal debt levels continuing to soar (new highs that aren’t cause for celebration). Interest payments on the debt are moving from afterthought to fiscal burden. Without a rediscovery of fiscal discipline getting a handle on inflation is going to be a challenge and that is likely to keep yields higher for longer. A quick return to the market and fiscal conditions of the past decade does not appear to be in the cards.    

https://allstarcharts.com/plus-weekly-observations_02-24-2023/  

 

 

Staatsanleihen sind zurzeit attraktiver als High Yield Bonds mit schlechten Bonitäten.

Gundlach Foresees Highest Level Of Junk Bond Defaults Of All Time

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/...k-bond-defaults-of-all-time-72324.html


Evtl. gibt es noch einen Rücksetzer  

 

Bisher steigt die Quote nur leicht an.
Ein starker Anstieg wäre ein Indikator für eine starke Rezession in Kombination mit Deflation.  

Gilt ist auch interessant.
Beim deutschen Buxl ist das Volumen relativ gering.

 

sollte die anhebung des us-schuldenlimits blockiert werden könnte das unvorstellbare passieren: ein default ereigniss. schätzungen gehen davon aus, dass gegen ende august die ratingagenturen gezwungen sein könnten, einen möglichen default der treasuries zu melden.

 

Der Wert des CDS-Wertes ist mit 34,6 Punkten bisher noch relativ niedrig.

https://de.investing.com/rates-bonds/united-states-cds-10-years-usd

Interessant war am Freitag die Stärke des Britischen Pfundes zum USD, aber auch zum EUR. Evtl. werden Staatsanleihen in GB als sicheres Investment bevorzugt.  

Rückkauf über der blauen Linie  

SL 131,65  

 

Auffällig ist die Stärke der deutschen Zinsfutures im Vergleich zu den US-Futures.
Bei den US-Zinsfutures zeigt der T-Bond relative Stärke.

 

 

 

 

 

SL ca. 133