STAGLATION fears as oil prices top $50

STAGLATION fears as oil prices top $50
hxxp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A36803-2004Oct15_2.html

Oil prices above $50 a barrel "highlight stagflationary risks to our current forecast," the Goldman Sachs economics team said a few weeks ago, warning of the possible combination of stagnating growth and rising inflation. Benchmark U.S. crude oil for November delivery closed yesterday at $54.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
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Many companies have not yet felt the effects of higher oil prices because they locked in lower prices through futures contracts, analysts said. With U.S. corporate profit growth so strong over the past year, many companies also have been able to absorb higher energy costs without raising prices.

But economists worry that these same companies will feel the effects in months to come if oil prices stay high. Eventually, their lower-cost fuel contracts will expire, profits will shrink, and stock prices will sag. Some of the current corporate reluctance to add workers and expand production capacity may reflect these sorts of worries among executives.
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The Fed chairman attributed much of the recent increase in oil prices to temporary factors, such as the disruptions to supplies from the Gulf of Mexico because of the hurricanes. But he agreed that worries about war, terrorism and other geopolitical events that could hurt oil supplies "are not frivolous given the stark realities evident in many areas of the world. . . . We, and the rest of the world, doubtless will have to live with the uncertainties of the oil markets for some time to come."

Ungeachtet der "Headline News" der Meister A. Greenspan weiß, das die Energiepreise hoch bleiben werden.  

RISING PRICE INFLATION

hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20041015-fri.html#anchor0

Commodity quotes pass-through

Pricing conditions rebounded in October - as we had expected - courtesy of higher energy and commodity prices. The index increased by three points to 63%, as half of respondents reported that companies have increased prices from a year ago and just 24% reported that companies have lowered them. Contrary to the pricing power seen in some other industries, grocers are having difficulty passing on sharp commodity-driven cost increases, according to analyst Roxana Fariborz.

Pricing improvement continued in all sectors except for financials, technology, and telecom services.

We asked analysts whether the recent step-up in oil prices, along the lines of our new price assumptions, would depress earnings at companies they cover and by how much. Not surprisingly, 76% of the respondents said that if realized, the higher trajectory of energy prices would depress profits. Of these, 77% said that the impact on earnings would be slight, 19% said it would be significant, and only 3% said it would be severe. Predictably, higher prices would boost earnings at oil services companies.
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Consumer Discretionary:

Business conditions improved in October. Prices charged also continued to increase for the group, and advance bookings picked up.
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Consumer Staples

Prices continued to increase for packaged food and beverage manufacturers as they continue to increase prices to recoup higher input costs.
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Healthcare:

Business conditions were unchanged for two of the three healthcare groups in October. Conditions deteriorated for the managed care/health insurance group, while prices charged increased by 3% or more from a year ago.
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Industrials:

Conditions varied for the industrials groups in October. Prices charged increased for most groups with the exception of airlines and aerospace/defense.
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Information Technology:

.... Prices charged declined for most groups with the exceptions of Internet and PC applications software, security software, and EMS.
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Materials:

Business conditions improved somewhat for the commodity chemicals companies and were unchanged for the specialty chemicals companies, while prices charged increased for both groups.
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Utilities:

Business conditions continued to deteriorate for the electric utilities, while prices charged continued to increase by 3% or more from a year ago.

JOB CREATION

Consumer Discretionary:...... Employment and hiring plans were unchanged for the group,
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Consumer Staples:..... Higher oil prices will significantly depress earnings for the household and personal care companies.
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Energy: ...... they also plan to increase hiring noticeably over the next 1-3 months
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Financials:...........Large-cap banks were still cutting payrolls over the past three months. Mortgage finance companies as well as mid-cap banks plan to increase hiring over the next 1-3 months.
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Healthcare:........Hiring and capex plans are flat for the group.
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Industrials: ............. Conditions varied for the industrials groups in October.......... But airline advance bookings declined.
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Materials:........... Hiring and capex plans are flat for the sector. Higher energy quotes will significantly depress both groups' earnings.
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Telecommunications Services: ..... The telecom services companies were still cutting payrolls over the past three months and have no plans to step up hiring over the next three.
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Utilities: Business conditions continued to deteriorate for the electric utilities,.......... Utilities cut payrolls over the past three months, and have no plans to increase hiring over the next three

Um diesen Realitätscheck einmal zusammen zu fassen:

- Das Budgetdefizit der USA wird in den kommenden Jahren bleiben,
- das Tradedefizit wird vohergesagt in diesem Fiskaljahr auf über $700 Milliarden angestiegen zu sein,
- das Current Account Defizit steigt demgemäß steil an,
- die reale Preisinflation steigt an während sich der Druck auf die Volkswirtschaft der USA aufbaut,
- Das Verbrauchervertrauen fällt und ebenso die Verbraucherausgaben,
- das stark angepriesene "sales growth" erreichte man durch "trading $" von Autoverkäufen - ohne mit diesen Gewinne zu erwirtschaften,
- Einstellungen gibt es in den USA nicht und während die Gewinne der US-Unternehmen sinken, können mehr Entlassungen erwartet werden.
- Die Gewinne der US-Unternehmen haben sich verlangsamt - und sind einstellig (Pro-Forma) geworden. Der S&P 500 wird aber aktuell mit einem P/E von 19,98 gehandelt. Er ist also drastisch überbewertet und wird sich halbieren müssen, um sich der neuen Realität an zu passen. Russell der 2000 exakt das Hoch an dem breiten US-Aktienmarkt vorher gesagt hatte, sieht ein P/E von 8 für den S&P 500 vorher. Er sagt einen der schlimmsten Bearmärkte bei dem breiten US-Aktienmarkt (Nasdaq, Dow Jones) voraus. Ein P/E von 8 würde aktuell bedeuten, das der S&P ungefähr 60% von seinem aktuellen Wert in der Zukunft verlieren wird.  

Der Ölschock wird von den Märkten unterschätzt und böses steht denen bevor, die dieses im Moment nicht wahr haben wollen.