Rohstoffe, aber welche?
greift nach Ölreserven in Kasachstan. Für zwei Milliarden Dollar (1,66 Mrd Euro)
will Lukoil die kanadische Firma Nelson Resources übernehmen, die in
der mittelasiatischen Republik über Reserven von knapp 270 Millionen Barrel (je
159 Liter) verfügt. Nelson-Aktionäre, die 65 Prozent der Anteile halten, hätten
dem Angebot bereits zugestimmt, teilte Lukoil am Freitag mit. Lukoil-Präsident
Wagit Alekperow sagte, Kasachstan sei ein Schlüsselmarkt für die internationale
Expansion des Konzerns./
Übernahme von Dragon Oil ist erstmal geplatzt,aber Liukoil sucht weiter in Turkmenistan nach Übernahmen
Norilsk Nickel Deputy CEO Denis Morozov said that shareholders on Friday approved the spin-off of the company's gold mining assets into a new entity, Polyus Gold, Interfax reported. The approval is in line with expectations as Norilsk's BoD had given the green-light to the move with the full support of the company's controlling shareholders in August. Polyus's assets will include Norilsk's mining operations in Russia as well as its 20% stake in South African gold miner Gold Fields.
We regard the spin-off as a major value-unlocking event for Norilsk Nickel.
At first glance, Polyus is still a marginal business, representing only 6.3% of Norilsk's 2004 IFRS revenue, 5.9% of EBITDA and 6.7% of net income on a consolidated basis. Yet, international gold companies trade at a 2005F P/E of 52.7X, vs. the 8.4X implied by the valuation of Norilsk, while in reality Polyus's huge JORC standard resource base of 64.4mn oz and its plans to triple 2004 output of 1.1mn oz in the next five years arguably warrant a valuation premium to peers. By implication, Polyus's real contribution to the group's value should be significantly higher.
Our model for the company gives an EV of $2.2bn, not including the 20% stake in South Africa's Gold Fields. Altogether, Polyus is set to be a $4.1bn company and the second largest publicly traded non-ferrous mining company in Russia. This valuation represents almost 25% of Norilsk Nickel's current market capitalization.
The discovery of Polyus's valuation potential would leave Norilsk itself visibly (and unjustifiably) undervalued. Our estimated value of Polyus would leave Norilsk trading at a 2006 P/E of just 9X against the emerging market average of 16X, with significant 15% upside to its standalone DCF value. We believe that Norilsk deserves a valuation premium as in the global context the company is in a league of its own, commanding 19% of the world nickel market, 3% of copper, 12% of platinum and 54% of palladium.
We thus view the Polyus spin-off as a catalyst for Norilsk, allowing for a crystallization of its gold assets' value while uncovering the true value potential of the core operation. We will initiate coverage of Polyus gold shortly.
Our recommendation on Norilsk Nickel remains Buy.
Trade in Tatneft shares was suspended for an hour at 4:50 p.m. because the share price deviated by over 10 percent from the opening price. Tatneft soared by 12.4 percent to RUR102.3 (approx. USD3.57) per share.
Analysts attribute the increase in the company's share price to the unofficial information leakage that Tatneft is among the winners of the bid for oil production in Libya.
We view the news as neutral and reiterate our Buy recommendation on the stock with an end-2006 target price of $110.
In a shelf registration statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company said it plans to use the proceeds for financing acquisitions of oil and gas properties or companies, debt repayment and general corporate purposes.
Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale.