Petropavlovsk
wer zu spät kommt der wurde hier bestraft. Falls Du welche hattest sind diese wertlos.
Realistische 2 GBPence konntest ja erzielen.
Das wurde freilich so gesteuert.
Und in der Nacht auf den 04. wurden sie dann auch noch automatisch gelöscht.
Große Sauerei das Ganze.
Besser als gar nichts... so reicht es jetzt immerhin noch für ein gutes Abendessen.
Mein Englisch ist leider nicht so gut. Überleg mir noch ob ich ein klein wenig investieren soll. Aber nur Spielgeld, da der Absturz schon heftig erscheint.
Bitte um Meinungen
Danke
• Investors have elected to take up just 35.35% of Petropavlovsk shares representing 1.1bn new shares in the company’s mammoth rights issue.
• The underwriters Merrill Lynch International are now looking to place some 2,005,898,145 new shares with institutions and other investors.
• The rights issue has been underwritten by Peter Hambro, Pavel Maslovskiy and certain bond holders.
• The new shares should be tradable from today.
• Valuation: We updated the market on our revised valuation for Petropavlovsk on Friday taking account of our updated production forecast based on company guidance, rouble devaluation and lower capital expenditure.
• Our valuation of 11p/s includes the heavy dilution to the shares created in the company’s refinancing.
• The Cash Flow table below indicates the potential for strong cash flow from operations on our gold price assumptions below. But we also see potential for a $30m cash deficit in 2017 (on the assumption of a flat US$1,200/oz gold price).
• Our modelling shows >US$200m in leveraged free cash flow in 2015, assuming a dollar / rouble exchange rate of 1:60 and gold price of US$1,234/oz this year subject to the company meeting its production and operating costs guidance.
• We assume cost inflation accelerates to 15% through the 2015-18E period to reflect the estimated 40% depreciation in Rouble (USDRUB 2014: 39; 2015: 60; 2016: 65)
• Applying a more conservative US$1,200/oz gold price forecast from 2015 onwards, leveraged FCF generation declines with a potential cash deficit emerging in 2017/18 assuming our production estimates (less than 600kozpa guided by the Company) and debt repayments schedule kept unchanged.
• Following a successful completion of the refinancing deal and having accumulated significant cash buffer in 2015, we expect the Company to generate near sufficient cash to meet its debt repayment schedule moving forwards (see debt repayment schedule below).
*Cost inflation is assumed to accelerate to 15% through the 2015-18E period to reflect an estimated 40% depreciation in Rouble (39 to 65).
POG debt repayment schedule 2015e-2020e
Source: SP Angel
• 2015 assumptions:
o Production: 680-700koz (POG) v 690koz (SP Angel)
o Total Cash Costs: US$700/oz (POG) v US$698/oz (SP Angel)
§ Low operating costs compared to estimated US$890/oz in 2014 is a result of stronger gold sales (690koz v 617koz) and weaker US dollar Rouble exchange rate (60 v 39).
• Capex: $35m=$25m(exploration)+$10m(development) (POG), $42m=$25m(exploration)+$17m(development)
• Our capex numbers are slightly higher than guided by the Company; however, 2015 levels, in general, highlight significantly reduced capital expenditures compared to
Part two.
• Our capex numbers are slightly higher than guided by the Company; however, 2015 levels, in general, highlight significantly reduced capital expenditures compared to historical numbers.
• While the Company’s outstanding debt is serviceable on our estimates, the outstanding guarantee for the ICBC loan to IRC for construction of the K&S I project is under risk should IRC miss its interest/amortization payments.
• The IRC facility stands at US$267m as of Dec/14 with IRC having agreed with ICBC the release of the remaining US$52m following successful completion of the POG’s refinancing.
• With iron ore prices currently trading sub-$60/t ore c. 60% down on levels seen at the start of 2014 and ilmenite prices in downward trend since 2012, IRC earnings are under significant pressure as the new plant is going through a commissioning phase and ICBC debt amortization coming in at $43m in 2015.
Conclusion: Petropavlovsk continues to offer value for investors despite the hefty dilution from the rights and convertible issues. Our calculations indicate the company generates sufficient cash flow to cover debt repayments on our gold price assumptions and lower costs, a weaker rouble, higher gold production and better capital control.
We also highlight the current low gold price if rolled forwards at US$1,200/oz may see the Company recording a cash shortfall in 2017/18 given present debt repayment schedule.
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He is referring to the completion of a protracted refinancing of Petropavlovsk (LON:POG), the Siberian gold miner the septuagenarian founded in 1994 with former Russian senator Pavel Maslovskiy.
There was a dissident investor, Sapinda, that wanted to block the bail-out and a shareholder vote that eventually approved a US$235mln rights issue.
As moves were being made to refinance to debt-laden company and re-shape and re-focus the strategy, the business became the target of short sellers.
So, in the space of a year, the firm, once a candidate for the FTSE 100, has seen 95% wiped from its value.
A market veteran, Hambro is no stranger to the practice of short selling - betting on a fall in a share price - and in fact it was a tactic he quite 'enjoyed' deploying during his time as a City trader.
But being the target, it all felt a bit personal, he said.
"On the other end of it the whole process is very, very unpleasant," Hambro told Proactive Investors.
"There is very little you can do other than hope you can catch them out."
When we meet, the Petropavlovsk chairman, scion of the great Hambro merchant banking dynasty, is keen to look to the future, not what has gone before.
With the funds in place and a new US$100mln debt facility he and the team focus on getting the absolute best out of what is still a globally significant gold deposit.
The plan is to mine the near-surface oxide ore from its deposits at a rate of 680-700,000 ounces a year.
That is a significant alteration to the previous strategy in which Petropavlovsk targeted refractory ore.
In mining parlance, refractory is often short-hand for tough-to-process sulphide material.
But using pressure oxidisaton or POX for short, it was able to do in 45 minutes what it took Mother Nature 4.5mln years to complete.
A 2012 presentation outlining the firm's plans claimed boldly that POX had the potential to 'unlock the future of gold mining'. Instead it almost became a POX on both the house of Peter Hambro and the company itself.
For the huge investment required to tap the potential of the refractory Pioneer and Pokrovskiy deposits using pressure oxidisation left Petropavlovsk with big debts just as the gold price was going into reverse.
"We had to turn the super-tanker around big time," Hambro said.
The fall in the share price down to 4p and the dilution of the rights issue may have been unpalatable for existing shareholders.
But this has provided an opportunity for investors new to Petropavlovsk.
The hedge fund CapeView, run by former Deutsche Bank trader Theo Panos, took its position above 5% on Thursday and more new shareholders are expected to emerge following the rights issue and placing that followed.
With an all-sustaining cash cost of below US$700, Petropavlovsk is one of the lower cost major gold producers. The tailwinds provided by a lower rouble will only help bolster its profit margins.
Some insightful analysis provided by John Meyer, the veteran mining analyst at resources boutique SP Angel, underlines the company's significant potential.
He is predicting the group will post underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$319mln this year, rising to US$336mln next based on a gold price of between US$1,234 and US$1,300 an ounce.
Importantly, Meyer's modelling reveals Petropavlovsk is capable of producing leveraged cash flow of more than US$200mln this year; which is important as the group looks to repay the remainder of its debt.
Meyer concludes: "Petropavlovsk continues to offer value for investors despite the hefty dilution from the rights and convertible issues.
"Our calculations indicate the company generates sufficient cash flow to cover debt repayments on our gold price assumptions and lower costs, a weaker rouble, higher gold production and better capital control."
The analyst reckons the stock is worth around 11p a share.
That valuation might increase when Petropavlovsk completes a reserve and resource report due late next month or early May.
And there is also the blue sky opportunity at some later date of chasing the bonanza grade shoots that have been identified across the company's licence areas.
None of this has been factored into the current assessment of the prospects of the company, which Hambro says has been 'weighed down by negativity'.
Neither has the prospect of a dividend payment. Yet the chairman can see a day when Petropavlovsk rewards investors for the patience (and courage) with a payout.
"You value gold companies on a discounted cash flow basis. If you don't have access to the cash flow you shouldn't be involved," he explains.
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Russlands Petropavlovsk halbiert Verluste
(shareribs.com) Moskau 29.04.15 - Der in Russland tätige Goldproduzent Petropavlovsk hat seinen Verlust im vergangenen Jahr deutlich verringern können. Die Planungen für die Ausweitung der Produktion wurden bestätigt.
Petropavlovsk hat im vergangenen Jahr einen Nettoverlust von 348 Mio. USD eingefahren und konnte diesen gegenüber dem Vorjahr mehr als halbieren. Das Unternehmen meldete, dass man die operativen Kosten senken konnte und die Wertberichtigungen geringer ausfielen. Der bereinigte Nettogewinn aus dem laufenden Geschäft lag im vergangenen Jahr bei 4,4 Mio. USD, nachdem im Vorjahr noch ein Verlust von 1,5 Mio. USD Stand.
Für das Gesamtjahr plant Petropavlovsk eine Reduktion seiner Verbindlichkeiten auf unter 600 Mio. USD. Die Produktion soll 2015 zwischen 680.000 und 700.000 Unzen Gold liegen, im ersten Quartal allein wurde 112.800 Unzen produziert.
Quelle: shareribs.com, Autor: (cs)
http://www.shareribs.com/rohstoffe/...halbiert_verluste_id104316.html
Debt the priority for Petropavlovsk
Petropavlovsk (POG) halved its net loss for 2014 to $348m (£227m), but the relative improvement can be attributed to $562m in impairments booked the previous year. Cash profits for the Russia-focused gold miner declined by around a fifth to $252m, due in part to a 12 per cent fall in realised gold prices.
With net debt approaching the $1bn mark at the year-end, the group's primary focus is getting the balance sheet in order. To this end, Petropavlovsk recently secured the eleventh-hour support of shareholders for a debt refinancing scheme, involving a new $100m five-year convertible bond as well as a heavily discounted rights issue. Petropavlovsk's management, under the auspice of chairman and co-founder Peter Hambro, now plans to pare back net debt to below $600m by the 2015 year-end, from $707m at the end of March.
Gold production fell by 16 per cent during the year to 625,000 ounces, but the miner said it was still on track to produce between 680,000 and 700,000 ounces in 2015. It will have to achieve this without a contribution from its stake in the Koboldo gold-mining company, which it hived off last month for $18.7m. And Petropavlovsk will also need to step up its production rate for the remainder of the year because it has so far been working its way through lower-grade ore.
PETROPAVLOVSK (POG)
ORD PRICE: 5.88p MARKET VALUE: £193m
TOUCH:5.85-5.88p§12-MONTH HIGH: 29p LOW: 2p
DIVIDEND YIELD: nil PE RATIO: na
NET ASSET VALUE: 17¢ NET DEBT: 125%
Year to 31 Dec Turnover ($bn) Pre-tax profit ($m) Earnings per share (¢) Dividend per share (p)
2010 0.6 69.0 11.0 10 §
2011 1.3 361 124 12 §
2012 1.2 40.0 na 12† §
2013 1.2 -523 -259 nil §
2014 0.9 -14.3 -94.0 nil§
% change -28 - - -
†Includes 5p a share scrip dividend. £1=$1.54
IC VIEW:
Petropavlovsk's shares trade well below the discounted cash-flow valuation of 10.3p provided by BoA Merrill Lynch. And the good news is that a weakened rouble has reduced the miner's all-in costs by 22 per cent. However, this is a very high-risk recovery play until Petropavlovsk makes more headway in reducing its debts. Hold.
Last IC view: Accept, 14.25p, 12 Feb 2015
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By Mark Robinson,
29 April 2015
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Um genau zu sein wurde das Quartals-Soll von 170.000 gleich um 35% verfehlt. Wir sprechen hier immerhin von jährlich 228800 Unzen Gold also ziemlich genau 1/3 der geplanten Produktion.
Ich hab mir jetzt noch nicht die älteren Berichte dazu angesehen, evt. fördern sie in den Sommermonaten ja das doppelte, was sie ja müssten, wenn sie Ihr Ziel erreichen wollen).
Bei 228800 Unzen sprechen wir ja auch zugleich von rund 270.000.000 $
Dabei kann man nur hoffen, dass damit noch nicht geplant wurde.
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700 Stk zu 0,081 € = 56,7 € zuzgl. 14,99 € von Tradegate. Total: 71,69 €
15 May 2015 | 15:34pm
StockMarketWire.com - Petropavlovsk will hold its annual general meeting at 3 More London Riverside, London SE1 2AQ, on 18 June at noon.
At 3:34pm: [LON:POG] Petropavlovsk PLC share price was -0.07p at 6.18p
- See more at: http://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/5038099/...thash.OwWaIcmf.dpuf
Eine äußerst lesenswerte Analyse zur Zukunft des jetzigen Finanzsystems aus der Sicht der Goldpreisentwicklung.
Speziell ab Seite 104 werden die chinesisch-russischen Aktivtäten zur Ablösung des Dollars erläutert.
Die russischen Goldminen werden davon stark profitieren.
Die Chinesen werden sich auch an russischen Minen beteiligen.
Das wird den Goldmarkt kraftvoll anschieben.
Der Beitrag gehört hier rein.
Sorry.