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|Eröffnet am:||22.06.08 01:30||von: coke junkie||Anzahl Beiträge:||17|
|Neuester Beitrag:||25.04.21 13:19||von: Danielatfjpa||Leser gesamt:||16.138|
Hamburg/Wien - Die erdölexportierenden Staaten wollten der Talfahrt offenbar nicht mehr tatenlos zusehen: Seit ihrem Hoch im Juli mit knapp 150 US-Dollar pro Barrel waren die Preise um rund 30 Prozent gesunken. Nun reagierte die Organisation erdölexportierender Länder - und drosselt ihre Fördermenge um gut 500.000 Barrel pro Tag. Das entschieden Vertreter der 13 Opec-Mitgliedsländer nach einem Treffen in Wien.
Der durchschnittliche Preis für Rohöl war in den vergangenen Wochen von rund 147 US-Dollar auf knapp über 100 US-Dollar am Dienstag gesunken. Die für Europa wichtige Nordsee-Ölsorte Brent war am Dienstagabend in London sogar unter die Marke von 100 Dollar gefallen - den tiefsten Stand seit Anfang April. Nach Bekanntgabe der Opec-Entscheidung zogen die Ölpreise wieder leicht an: US-Leichtöl kostete etwa 103,80 Dollar das Barrel.
In einer Erklärung der Opec vom frühen Mittwochmorgen hieß es, die Organisation habe sich darauf verständigt, maximal 28,8 Millionen Barrel pro Tag zu produzieren - ein Rückgang von etwa 500.000 Barrel. Vor allem die Abschwächung der Weltwirtschaft habe in den vergangenen Wochen dazu geführt, dass die Nachfrage nach Öl und damit auch der Preis signifikant nachgegeben habe, hieß es weiter.
Der amtierende Opec-Präsident Chakib Khelil sagte vor Journalisten in Wien, angesichts der "überversorgten Märkte" werde man ab sofort auch auf die strikte Einhaltung der neuen Förderquoten achten. Vor allem Saudi-Arabien hatte seit August deutlich mehr Rohöl gefördert als von der Opec vorgesehen.
Die Entscheidung der Ölminister kam letztlich überraschend. Opec- Analysten hatten damit gerechnet, dass die Konferenz die Quoten zumindest bis zur nächsten außerordentlichen Sitzung am 17. Dezember in Oran (Algerien) nicht antasten würde.
Die neue Quote entspreche der vom September 2007, hieß es. Allerdings wurden bei der Berechnung die stark schwankende Förderung des Iraks und die Indonesiens nicht mit einbezogen. Die neuen Opec-Staaten Ecuador und Angola sind jedoch bei den Quote einbezogen. Zuletzt lag die reale Förderung aller 13 Mitgliedsländer bei über 32 Millionen Barrel pro Tag.
Opec-Präsident Khelil betonte, er gehe davon aus, "dass die Preise trotz der Verringerung (der Produktion) weiter fallen" würden. Der zurzeit steigende US-Dollar werde sich mäßigend auf die Preise auswirken.
Die 13 Ölminister wählten außerdem den angolanische Ölminister Desidério da Graça Verissímo e Costa, 74, zum amtierenden Präsidenten der Opec-Konferenz für das Jahr 2009. Der Algerier Khelil stand der Konferenz im laufenden Jahr vor. Neuer Vize wird der ekuadorianische Ölminister Galo Chiriboga Zambrano.
June 11, 2009
$70 Oil: Myths and Reality
From Elliott H. Gue
On June 9, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices closed above $70/bbl for the first time since November 4, 2008. WTI prices have more than doubled since the lows posted in late December. Oil's rally was a major topic in the financial media on Tuesday and Wednesday, and I listened to a long list of pundits attempt to explain the recent rally in crude prices. Many analysts asserted that oil's run-up has little to do with fundamentals of supply and demand. By far the most popular rationale attributed the rally in oil to traders betting against the US dollar.
There's an elegant simplicity to this logic: Crude is priced primarily in US dollars; a weakening dollar can push up the dollar price of crude oil. If the rally in oil were simply the result of a weakening dollar, one would expect this chart to show a relatively flat line. In other words, oil prices would trend higher in dollar terms but, thanks to a strengthening euro, would remain relatively constant when priced in the latter currency.
Crude oil prices traded as low as EUR26.50 this year and are now trading near EUR50; priced in euros, crude oil has nearly doubled in value. Interestingly, oil's rally has accelerated in recent weeks, even as the European currency has strengthened against the greenback.
For millennia, gold has been considered a unit of value and the closest thing to a universal currency. Although few consumers use gold coins to pay for goods and services directly, most investors regard gold as the ultimate hedge against a weak dollar, rising inflationary pressures and financial turmoil.
Let us analise the price of oil divided by the price of gold. In other words, this is a measure of how many ounces of gold are needed to purchase a barrel of WTI crude oil.
With gold currently selling for about $955/oz, about 0.073 ounces of the precious metal buys a barrel of oil. However, in early February the same barrel of oil commanded about 0.035 ounces of gold; the price of a barrel of oil has more than doubled in gold terms.
The implication of aboved is clear: A weakening dollar may contribute to rising crude prices, but this trend is neither the sole cause of rising oil prices nor the primary driver of expensive oil. If traders were simply betting on a falling dollar, oil prices should not be doubling in price in both euro and gold terms.
Speculation is another common explanation for the upturn in oil prices, a rationale that was even more popular last summer when oil prices spiked to nearly $150/bbl. For that matter, speculators have been a common scapegoat for politicians for centuries.
The first point to remember is that speculators aren't evil. Traders who buy and sell crude oil futures contracts provide significant liquidity to the market; this makes it easier for firms using futures to hedge their oil exposure to get a fair price. And speculators typically buy or sell crude based on their assessment of market conditions; just as with stocks or any other traded market, oil speculators cannot fight fundamental conditions forever. Ultimately, the real forces of supply and demand will win out.
Leaving aside these theoretical considerations for now, we can assess the impact of speculation on crude prices directly by watching the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The COT divides traders into two main camps, commercial and non-commercial, and details their long and short positions.
Commercial traders are typically firms involved in the energy business. That list would include oil producers that use futures to lock in prices for the commodity they produce. The commercial category could also include big consumers of oil that use these markets to hedge their potential exposure to rising fuel costs.
Non-commercial traders are usually what most would consider speculators: individuals and institutions betting on crude oil prices rising or falling via long and short positions. Taking a look at the net position of crude oil non-commercial traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and checking the total number of long futures and options commitments held by non-commercials minus the total number of short positions we find positive numbers indicate that non-commercials are net long oil; negative numbers indicate that traders are net short.
Based on this data, crude oil speculators are long about 109,000 crude oil contracts. Although that's up from 70,000 contracts in early May, it's still considerably less than the net long position held at the beginning of 2009.
Last summer, some were alleging that commodity index funds--basically funds designed to profit from rising commodity prices--were being classified by the CFTC as commercial traders even though they were really just speculators. But, if that were the case, the argument that speculators are driving oil prices falls even flatter: Commercial traders are currently net short crude oil.
And one more point is worth noting: each NYMEX futures contract covers 1,000 barrels of crude oil--a net long position of 109,000 contracts would cover 109 million barrels of oil. That seems like a rather large amount until you consider that the world consumes 85 million barrels per day; the total net long position held by speculators on NYMEX totals about 1.3 days worth of supply.
Neither irrational speculation in oil markets nor a weaker dollar satisfactorily explains the jump in crude oil prices. In my view, shifting expectations for supply and demand are driving oil's recent move.
When you hear a commentator state that oil fundamentals are bearish, there's a good chance he or she is talking about US oil inventory statistics. Released weekly by the EIA, the oil inventory report tells us exactly how much crude oil, gasoline and distillate oil is being held in storage in the US. High inventory levels are bearish because they imply a glut of oil supply.
Amid a weak economy last year US demand for oil plummeted, and inventories of stored crude have built to record levels this year. This problem wasn't exclusive to the US; oil demand across the developed world has collapsed, and crude stockpiles have surged.
Still, the picture is improving. US gasoline inventories have fallen sharply in recent weeks just as the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer driving season kicks off. In fact, US gasoline inventories are actually setting new five-year lows for this time of year.
Oil inventories remain bloated, compared US crude oil inventories to analysts' consensus expectations over the past year. Big positive numbers suggests bearish surprises: On these weeks, inventories fell less than expected or grew more than expected. On the other hand, negative numbers are bullish for crude, denoting inventory numbers that are tighter than consensus expectations.
Assumed, the recent reports released by the EIA have been bullish for crude, showing surprisingly large declines in inventories. While there's still a glut of oil in storage, that glut is shrinking.
More important, if we step back from weekly inventory figures, the longer-term picture appears even more bullish. As I noted in this e-zine as well as in the May 22, 2009 issue of Personal Finance Weekly entitled "Leading out of Recession," the US economy appears to be stabilizing and emerging market economies are recovering at a far faster pace than most expected at the beginning of 2009. An improving global economy will lead to a re-acceleration of oil demand in coming months.
And don't forget the supply side of the equation. Far too many pundits assume there's sufficient producible oil to meet rising demand. I'm not a strict "peak oil" adherent, but I believe the world is closer to peak production than many assume and suspect that global oil production can rise further from current levels. That said, production can't rise with oil at USD50 per barrel; prices above the USD70 to USD80 level are required to incentivize new exploration and development.
As we've seen over the past year, global oil exploration and drilling activity declines rapidly once commodity prices sink below the USD70. In some markets such as Russia, drilling activity has collapsed.
Given the decline in investment, it's likely that just as global oil demand revives in 2009 and picks up steam in 2010, non-OPEC oil production will fall. This sets us up for a supply crunch that I believe will bring us back to $100/bbl oil by early next year.