Kursverdoppelung bei Actua Corporation (vorm. Internet Capital)

http://www.internetretailer.com/2010/06/02/...pproach-data-feeds-pays  

wird alleine durch die 76% an ICGCommerce abgedeckt. Die restlichen 10 der 11 privaten Beteiligungen neben ICGCommerce gibt es umsonst, ebenso ca. 75 Millionen Cash/Wertpapiere.  

läuft, haben wir allein dadurch nicht nur schon eine Abdeckung der momentanen Marktkapitalisierung von Internet Capital, sondern schon eine Überdeckung der momentanen Marktkapitalisierung um 100 Millionen.  

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/...p;mid=264453&tof=2&frt=2  

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/...;mid=264355&tof=14&frt=2  

zweimal ca. 30 Millionen Quartalsgewinn in den letzten beiden Quartalen ist absehbar, dass im Schnitt der kommenden Quartal das noch zu wenig sein wird, wenn erst einmal die Monetarisierungen laufen. Im Schnitt der nächsten fünf Jahre erwarte ich da bei den ingesamt 20 Qartalen einen Schnitt der über 50 Millionen liegt:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=icge

Dass wir damit im Schnitt einen jährlichen Gewinn von 200 Millionen haben, kann man leicht ableiten. Das KGV wäre auf der momentanen Kursbasis dann 1,5.  

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/...64452&tof=1&frt=2#264452  

wo zwar nur bekannte Dinge verkündet werden, aber vielleicht rückt dann die extreme Unterbewertung stärker ins Bewusstsein:

http://www.icg.com/investors/2010-annual-meeting/  

sind die 76% Beteiligung an ICGCommerce, die man auf etwas über 80% aufstocken will, womit man neben dem Management von ICGCommerce als Beteiligter übrig bleiben würde, was die Monetarisierung, ob jetzt IPO oder Verkauf, ganz wesentlich erleichtern würde.

Im letzten Quartalsbericht konnte man über ICGCommerce lesen: "ICG Commerce, one of our core consolidated companies, grew its revenue to $22.9 million in the first quarter, an increase from $18.8 million during the first quarter of 2009. ICG Commerce’s EBITDA, excluding the impact of stock-based compensation and unusual items, was $2.6 million in the first quarter, slightly below $2.8 million in the comparable 2009 period. ICG Commerce’s cash and cash equivalents were $18.7 million at March 31, 2010." Bei einer jährlichen Wachstumsrate von ca. 30% kann man davon ausgehen, dass man in 2010 bei Umsätzen von ca. 105 Millionen landen wird, zumal sich neben dem auch in der Krise vorhandenen strukturellen Wachstum jetzt auch noch ein konjunktureller Schub hinzukommt.

Berücksichtigt man die Bewertung vergleichbarer Unternehmen und die hohe Wachstumsrate von ICGCommerce, ist ein Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis von 5 ein eher niedriger Ansatz bei einem IPO oder Verkauf, da das Unternehmen selbst zwischen den Beteiligungsgesellschaften schon mit Werten von mehr als 3 zwischengehandelt wurde. Damit wären wir bei einer Bewertung von einer halben Milliarde und für die dann vermutlich vorhandenen 80% bei einem anteiligen Wert von 400 Millionen.

Das ist allein schon 100 Millionen mehr als die momentane Marktkapitalisierung. Umsonst hinzukommen würden die Beteiligungen an den weiteren 10 von 11 privaten Unternehmen neben ICGCommerce und die Cash/Wertpapiere.  

- möglicherweise zu Recht, aber ICGCommerce ist noch wesentlich besser positioniert, vor allem ist die Wachstumsrate des Umsatzes um ein Vielfaches höher:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ve-commerce-solutions?source=yahoo

Insbesondere für indirekte Güter (das sind solche, die nicht in die Produkte einfließen) macht nur Outsourcing Sinn und nicht firmenindividuelle Beschaffungslösungen, da nur über Outsourcing ein Pooling beim Einkauf möglich ist.  

und unter Heranziehung der folgenden Umsatzzahlen

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ARBA

wird Ariba momentan mit dem Vierfachen seiner Umsätze bewertet. Wenn Ihr Euch dieses inzwischen vorhandene Umsatzwachstum anseht, bleibt das aber weit unter den fast 30% pro Jahr von ICGCommerce.  

Bereich des Outosourcing von Beschaffung, ICGCommerce, mit 30% pro Jahr wächst könnt Ihr heute auch in der FTD nachlesen.

http://www.ftd.de/karriere-management/management/...agd/50122710.html  

die immer erfolgreicher werden:

http://www.metastorm.com/library/reports/...ecision_Matrix_Sample.pdf  

SUMMARY

The competitive landscape for BPM solutions is characterised by the following traits:
• The BPM vendor landscape is comparably fragmented, with several specialist vendors among the leaders.
• The market remains competitive, but stratification within the group of leading vendors profiled is increasingly apparent.
• Metastorm, Oracle and Savvion are the vanguard of the BPM market, as they combine excellence in core
technologies with a clearly articulated approach to BPM.
• Active Endpoints, Appian, IBM (including Lombardi), Pegasystems and Ultimus are the primary challengers that could
join the group of market leaders should they address certain limitations in their technology offering or go-to-market
strategy.
• AuraPortal, Cordys, Intalio, SAP and Tibco are all slightly behind the leading group, but, depending on the user's
deployment requirements, may still be the most appropriate option.  

Metastorm Selected for the 2010 AlwaysOn East Top 100 Private Companies List

Growing leadership in business process analysis and business process management drives Metastorm’s success

BALTIMORE, MD – June 15, 2010 – Metastorm, a leading provider of Business Process Management (BPM), Business Process Analysis (BPA), and Enterprise Architecture (EA) software for aligning strategy with execution, today announced that it has been named to the AlwaysOn East Top 100 Private Companies list.

The AlwaysOn East (AOE) 100 list represents the top emerging companies from the East Coast that are demonstrating significant market traction and pursuing game-changing technologies in on-demand computing, digital media, and greentech. Selections were made by the AlwaysOn editorial team, along with partners at the Blackstone Group, KPMG, Silicon Valley Bank, Sonnenschein, and others.

"After examining the companies that are on the AOE100 list, it's obvious that innovation is not only alive and well on the East Coast, it's accelerating in economic power and scope," says Tony Perkins, founder and editor of AlwaysOn. "The companies certainly represent some of the highest-growth opportunities in the private company marketplace."

“We are pleased that our growth, leadership and innovation in business process management and optimization continues to be recognized by industry thought leaders and the investment community,” stated Robert Farrell, chairman and CEO of Metastorm.

The full list is available at:http://www.aonetwork.com/AOStory/...lwaysOn-East-Top-100-Companies-0.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u50-5j-WXTA  

aufgrund welcher wie auch immer vorgenommener Berechnungen. In Wirklichkeit haben wir jedoch lediglich ein KGV von 2:

Take a look at the net-incomes of the last quarters:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=icge

I am sure, that in the average the net-incomes of Internet Capital in the next five years will be in a quarter about 40 million, maybe more, when the monetizations will be excellent. That are about 160 million in a year and on the base of the share-price of today only a P/E of 2  

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...Cite-bw-2080878692.html?x=0&.v=1

Internet Capital hält 36% an Starcite.  

GovLoop is the "Facebook for Government" - the premier social network connecting over 25,000 government innovators from federal, state, and local government.

A great resource to connect with peers, research best practices, and find career-building opportunities.

GovLoop ist eine 100ige Tochtergesellschaft von Govdelivery, an denen Internet Capitl 89% hält.  

Posting:

http://www.govloop.com/page/frequently-asked-questions  

http://www.icg.com/default/assets/File/Presentations/annualmtg2010.pdf  

Die Umsätze der drei konsolidierten Kernbeteiligungen (von insgesamt acht Kernbeteiligungen) ICGCommerce, Godelivery und Investoreforce betrugen

2008: $72.4 million
2009: $94.9 million
2010: $114.2 -$120.2

Von den ca. 120 Millionen in 2010 entfallen davon:

105 million by ICGCommerce
10 million by Govdelivery and
5 million by Investorforce  

ergeben sich damit für Internet Capital in 2010 schon anteilige Umsätze von 95 Millionen.

105 million by ICGCommerce (ownership = 76%) = 82.1 million proportional revenues of Internet Capital

10 million by Govdelivery (ownership = 89%) = 8.9 million proportional revenues of Internet Capital

5 million by Investorforce (ownership = 81%) = 4.0 million proportional revenues of Internet Capital

82.1 million + 8.9 million + 4.0 million = 95 million proportional revenues for Internet Capital from the 3 consolidated core-companies in 2010  

Umsätze ergeben sich aus den 5 nicht konsolidieten Kernbeteligungen:

Core Equity Partner Companies

Partner Company
Description
Ownership
Percentage
2009 Trailing
Revenue Range

Channelintelligence
Performance advertising services for manufacturers and retailers
50%
$20M –$30M

Starcite
On-demand meeting solutions
36%
$40M –$50M

Whitefence
Online home services transactions
36%
$20M –$30M

Metastorm
BPM software and services
33%
$60M –$70M

Freeborders
Offshore IT services delivered from China
31%
$20M –$30M Rating


Und so geht es in 2010 weiter:

Partner Company
Description
Ownership
Percentage
2009 Trailing
Revenue Range

Channelintelligence
Performance advertising services for manufacturers and retailers
50%
$20M –$30M

Revenues of Channelintelligence in 2010 wil be about 30 million. Proportional revenues by an ownership of 50% = 15 million.


Partner Company
Description
Ownership
Percentage
2009 Trailing
Revenue Range


Starcite
On-demand meeting solutions
36%
$40M –$50M

Revenues of Starcite will be above 50 million again like 2008. My estimate for the revenus in 2010 is 56 million. Proportional revenues of Starcite by an ownership of 36% = 20.2 million.


Partner Company
Description
Ownership
Percentage
2009 Trailing
Revenue Range

Whitefence
Online home services transactions
36%
$20M –$30M

Revenues of Whitefence will be back above 30 million like 2008 again. My estimate of the revenues in 2009 = 31 million. The proportional revenues of Internet Capital by an ownernship of 36% = 11.2 million.


Partner Company
Description
Ownership
Percentage
2009 Trailing
Revenue Range

Metastorm
BPM software and services
33%
$60M –$70M

Revenues will be above 70 million again like 2008. My estimate = 77 million. Proportional revenues by an ownership of 33% = 25.4 million


Partner Company
Description
Ownership
Percentage
2009 Trailing
Revenue Range

Freeborders
Offshore IT services delivered from China
31%
$20M –$30M

Revenues in 2010 will be about 33 millon. Proportional revenues of Internet Capital by an ownership of 31% = 10.2 million


If you now add 15 million + 20.2 million + 11.2 million + 25.4 million + 10.2 million = 82 million proportional revenues from the 5 equity core companies.  

den folgenden drei Beteiligungen:

Additonal there are three other private hold companies:

We have venture interests in partner companies to which we generally devote less capital and, therefore, in which we hold relatively smaller ownership stakes than we do in our core companies. As a result we have less influence over their strategic direction and management decisions than we do over those of our core companies.


(25%)

Acquirgy is the premier multichannel customer acquisition direct marketing ad agency. Direct Marketing is the driving force that defines who we are and everything we do! Our unequalled direct marketing expertise, knowledge base, ingenuity, account team, and proprietary technologies are 100% deployed to accelerate the acquisition of customers: Efficiently, Cost Effectively, and Predicatively to drive superior scalable results. We call this Acquisition Energy! We operate across all offline and online digital channels. Specialties include: Award winning script-to-screen DRTV (Direct Response Television). The most comprehensive array of Search Marketing (SEM) Products and Services, including SEM Full Management, SEM Consulting, and SEO (Search Engine Optimization), and scalable Lead Generation Platforms to acquire leads and customers.
www.acquirgy.com

(33%)

ClickEquations is a complete paid search platform designed for large advertisers and agencies. ClickEquations helps scale and optimize paid search spend with automated analytics, flexible bid management and intuitive campaign editing. Their built-in guidance helps clients identify and act on areas of opportunity and loss.
ClickEquations Analyst, a unique Excel plug-in, offers unlimited customization of sharable reports and dashboards as well as unprecedented analytics power.
www.clickequations.com


(26%)

SeaPass Solutions is headquartered in New York City. The company develops and markets solutions that enable insurance carriers, agents, and brokers to transmit and receive data in real time. The SeaPass Hub Solution provides a real-time, single-entry multi-carrier/multi-line commercial lines comparative quoting platform that leverages existing systems to interact with one another, leading to reduced costs, better new business and successful transactions. Since 2001 - SeaPass has been implementing innovative technological solutions and services at national insurance carriers, regional carriers, banks, large agencies and brokers of all sizes.
www.seapass.com

ICG ownership positions are calculated on a primary basis and shown as of March 31, 2010.


After my estimates, the revenues of Acquirgy in 2010 will be about 10 million. Therefore the proportional revenues by 25% ownership = 2.5 million.


After my estimates the revneues of Clickequations in 2010 will be 4 million. The proportional revenues by 33% ownership = 1.3 million.


After my estimates the revenues of Seapass in 2010 will be about 8 million. The proportional revenus of Internet Capital in 2010 by 26% ownership will bee 2.1 million.

If we add the 2.5 million + 1.3 million + 2.1 million = 5.9 million.